Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[Buffalo03]

3 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Just to add, because I don't think the situation for Moulds and Jones are the same. While Moulds is a guy who made it, I feel like there are way more guys who struggled like Zay and washed out. The Troy Williamsons, Charles Rogers, Laquon Treadwells of the world. That is how I view Zay. In the case of a guy like Treadwell, he's only been targeted 91 times in his career. He is going to wash out without ever really getting an opportunity and playing behind better players. The caveat is that we don't know how these guys are performing on the practice field. Zay is playing by default and being targeted by default. I don't feel as if Zay has earned the reps, but that is just my own assumption and bias. I don't remember a lot of the details of why Moulds was bad the first couple of years, I was a 14 year old kid running around, but I don't think Zay is struggling to pick up the NFL game. But I also think, that if the Bills had better players the Zay's first two years, he would not have seen the field. He was given a ton of opportunities and he blew most of them. Maybe he was not ready to be on the field. I actually think he is a smart player, who understands zones and things of that nature. I don't think he is struggling to pick up the game or the offense. He is struggling to make plays, and that is why I question his talent. He is struggling with things like catching the ball, running fast, blocking, making plays on contested catches. He showed some skill in that regard in college, so I have a tiny glimmer of hope that he finds his game. I don't think Jones has been inconsistent his first two years, I think he has been downright awful. I don't know if it's an effort thing, a focus thing, a talent thing, or a little bit of all of that. And if it weren't for what he showed in college, I would have already cut him. My whole thing is , that there are now people on the roster who are hungry and can do things that he can't do. So I very much think that he is on notice. 

 

I think there is a pretty much zero percent chance we see a Moulds like break out because I just don't think Zay Jones is talented enough. He's had the opportunity to show his talent and he has shown very little. I thinks he's a basically David Nelson without the size and with a better prospect pedigree. I am not waiting to see Zay's game click, I am waiting to see his talent, and to me it appears that there isn't much there. There is a place on a roster for a guy like that, but the minute you get some better players, he is out. That's where I am at.  

Zay has been way more productive than Williamson, Charles Rodgers and Laquon Treadwell. Zay hasn't been great by any means but he has been better than those guys. I don't even think it's close. I know Zay has been getting targeted by default most likely but the guy had 7 TDs last year alone which is more than any of them have had in their careers. Yes, he has had more targets but just from a skill set I don't think he is nearly on the same level as them. If Zay was that bad, believe me, he would not be on the field. Zay was a 2nd rounder and those guys were all 1st rounders and their teams didn't care about where they were drafted, if they weren't good enough, they weren't seeing the field. Will he wash out of the league? Its possible but unless he is insanely bad over the next year or two, I don't see it. He would have to be a complete non factor at some point for that to happen.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, MasterStrategist said:

Great assessment of the past two WR drafts, and overall summary.

 

Agree that separation and catching are two high level, very important qualities that evaluators look at.  Catch skills/quality is a trait that most fans can at least attempt to evaluate.  However, separation is really complex....(man vs zone defense, what routes and complementary WR routes are being ran, what depth/did the receiver get where he was supposed to be on time, what # read was he on the play, etc).

 

I'd say anyone short of the coaches, who tries to evaluate separation is not providing a thorough/accurate assessment.  

 

I agree, I think Zay has stiffer competition vs years past, and that he will ultimately make the roster.  Let the best man win!

 

Just my opinion, but saying that Zay will be traded or cut (not make the roster) is almost as outlandish as saying Dion Dawkins won't make this team.  All of the inconsistencies and improved positional competition exists there too...just saying? 

 

Even last year Dion outplayed Zay. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

This is so reminiscent of the super Tyrod fans saying EJ would be done week one and then Nate Peterman would not be on the team week one of the 2018 season. 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

3 hours ago, Laughing Coffin said:

 

So when the Bills ignored the WR position for the entire draft, signed a CFL player AND picked up an UDFA, you think that sealed Zay's fate he doesn't make the roster????  You're right that it did seal Zay's fate though, but it's his fate of staying on the team. 

 

You can see from the draft war room video released yesterday that the Bills didn't even have WR listed as a position of need in the draft. 

 

2020 NFL Draft is loaded with top WR talent.  This will be a make or break year for Zay and his place on this roster for next season

 

This is a pretty devastating take down of this whole thread.  I was told by the OP that the coaches probably believed that Zay was responsible for 9 drops that I said were uncatchable balls. Hard to say the OP wasn't wrong in light of this. 

[Alphadawg7]

18 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

I think you can toss the Jax and Det game out the window...both games Zay drew a top 5 corner in the NFL playing man to man.  If Foster was being covered by Ramsey or Slay, I bet those stat lines would be flipped.

 

I think we can all agree that many factors are at play , like above, so those direct comparisons are not always apples to apples.

 

Now that said, Zay isnt a #1 receiver, but I think he's been progressing.  And I see his potential as a #2.  It's been unfair to the team and him, that he was practically our #1 last season with only Foster as another weapon....to go along with a horrible line and rookie QB.  

 

Let's see what happens now that we have some other pieces to help dictate coverage away from Zay, the makings of a competent line, and year 2 for our QB.

 

At least we have some competition this year, that should only help everyone and let the best man win that WR4 spot.  I agree with GunnerBill that the WR5/6 will be guys who can also contribute to specials

 

No disrespect here...but why do you want to throw his bad games out against good competition and keep his only 2 good games which were against terrible competition?

 

I cant fathom how that makes any sense.  

 

Also cant fathom why anyone would want a WR who is completely taken out of games against good competitors (like we would face in the postseason) and only can show up against the few times we play a terrible team.

[Alphadawg7]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Let's just interrogate this statement a bit. So I've broadened the comparison out and looked at every receiver taken in the 1st or 2nd rounds of the 2017 and 2018 NFL Drafts (plus Godwin who was a 3rd rounder but who you had already referenced).

 

2017 1sts

Corey Davis 2018: 891 yards, 4 Tds, 112 targets, 65 receptions - catch rate of 58%

Mike Williams 2018: 664 yards, 10 Tds, 66 targets, 43 receptions - catch rate of 65%

John Ross 2018: 210 yards, 7 Tds, 58 targets, 21 receptions - catch rate of 36%

 

2017 2nds/3rds

Zay Jones 2018: 652 yards, 7 Tds, 102 targets, 56 receptions - catch rate of 55%

Curtis Samuel 2018: 494 yards, 5 Tds, 65 targets, 39 receptions - catch rate of 60%

Juju 2018: 1426 yards, 7 Tds, 166 targets, 111 receptions - catch rate of 66%

Godwin 2018: 842 yards, 7 Tds, 95 targets, 59 receptions - catch rate of 62%

 

2018 1sts

DJ Moore 2018: 788 yards, 2 Tds, 82 targets, 55 receptions - catch rate of 67%

Calvin Ridley 2018, 821 yards, 10 Tds, 92 targets, 64 receptions - catch rate of 70%

 

2018 2nds

Courtland Sutton 704 yards, 4 Tds, 84 targets, 42 receptions - catch rate of 50%

Dante Pettis 2018: 467 yards, 5 Tds, 45 targets, 27 receptions - catch rate of 60%

Christian Kirk 2018: 590 yards, 3 Tds, 68 targets, 43 receptions - catch rate of 63%

Anthony Miller 2018: 423 yards, 7 Tds, 54 targets, 33 receptions - catch rate of 61%

James Washington 2018: 217 yards, 1 Tds, 38 targets, 16 receptions - catch rate of 42%

DJ Chalk 2018: 174 yards, 0 Tds, 32 targets, 14 receptions - catch rate of 44%

 

The first thing to say is obviously that comparing the 2018 guys rookie years to the 2017 guys sophomore years is a little unfair. Zay's rookie year he 316 yards, 2 touchdowns and a 36% catch rate so some of those 2018 guys can still take a step in year 2. But what this shows us is where Zay ranked in 2018 out of 15 young NFL receivers.

 

He was 8th in yards - exactly halfway;

He was joint 3rd (one of 5 guys tied with 7) in Tds;

He was 3rd in respect of targets;

He was 11th in catch %

 

What this tells us is that while his yards and touchdowns numbers are respectable they are, to an extent, a result of opportunity. Only Corey Davis who is arguably the #1 in Tennessee and Juju who is the #1A in a pass heavy offense in Pittsburgh saw more targets. Of the 2018 guys the only person with a less impressive overall stat line all things considered is John Ross and there absolutely HAS been talk in Cincy about cutting / trading him. My instinct remains that Zay probably makes this roster. But he is far from a lock at this stage. The Bills have improved their receiver corps by bringing in Brown and Beasley and the competition is going to be real. If Zay doesn't ball out in camp and pre-season and one of the "wildcard" guys does or one of them establishes themselves as a core STs player then Zay could still find himself the odd man out.

 

I keep saying it - the two things NFL people look for in receivers before they think about "is he a speed guy or a size guy or a slot guy" which us fans tend to obsess over are: can he separate and can he catch the ball. The reason Zay was drafted in the 2nd round was because in college he excelled in catching the ball. In the NFL so far he has struggled with it. And patience with him will not last forever.

 

 

 

Excellent work Gunner...excellent work.

 

One more thing to add to this about Zays 2018 "totals":  He got a significant portion of his year end totals in 2 games against the not very good Miami Dolphins.

 

25% of his yards

18% of his receptions

57% of his TD's

 

I guess some people want to emphasize he produced against weak competition, albeit just twice, while ignoring the other 14 games he was mostly irrelevant, and even a liability in a couple losses. 

 

PS:  One of his other TD's was a FREE gimme by the Pats while we were down 3 scores with 1 minute left and they let him go uncovered for a 31 yard TD when game was over.  Prior to that he had 4 rec, for 34 yards in the rest of the game.  

 

So guess some people are impressed with totals inflated by weak competition and garbage time freebies and don't care that he rarely does anything when it matters.  

 

Edited May 3, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[MasterStrategist]

21 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No disrespect here...but why do you want to throw his bad games out against good competition and keep his only 2 good games which were against terrible competition?

 

I cant fathom how that makes any sense.  

 

Also cant fathom why anyone would want a WR who is completely taken out of games against good competitors (like we would face in the postseason) and only can show up against the few times we play a terrible team.

None taken.  

 

Sorry my point wasn't to call his good games and exclude the bad.  Just wanted to mention the obvious, which is Slay and Ramsey would have shut down Foster too.  And there s a reason those teams matched their best corners against Zay.

 

Can certainly appreciate the comparisons that you and GunnerBill have included here as well.  Good discussion going on

[MJS]

20 hours ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

When the Bills brought in Duke, signed Beasley and Brown, AND signed David Sills, that sealed Zay Jones's fate. 

 

Unless Zay got incredibly better as a special teams player, he's gone. Robert Foster has a better chance to make the final cut than Zay.

 

CAVEAT: Without season anding injuries, of course. *knock on all sorts of wood*

So a CFL receiver and an UDFA seal the fate for Zay, a 2nd round pick?

[ngbills]

10 minutes ago, MJS said:

So a CFL receiver and an UDFA seal the fate for Zay, a 2nd round pick?

Thats how this board always rolls. We dont need Antonio Brown....we picked up Duke Williams and look at what Foster did last year. Its hilarious. We set the bar so low as fans. McCoy may be done finally but every year we hear how we dont need him bc a guy like Marcus Murphy or Gillislee or Karlos Williams. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, MasterStrategist said:

None taken.  

 

Sorry my point wasn't to call his good games and exclude the bad.  Just wanted to mention the obvious, which is Slay and Ramsey would have shut down Foster too.  And there s a reason those teams matched their best corners against Zay.

 

Can certainly appreciate the comparisons that you and GunnerBill have included here as well.  Good discussion going on

 

Agreed on the discussion.  When I started this thread, I really thought it would get 2 to 3 pages tops.  But its actually been one of my favorites threads in recent memory as its been mostly very good back and forth and open discussion.  It hasn't degraded even now, still thoughtful dialogue mostly continuing.  

 

And I understand your point, but Slay and Ramsey are also not unbeatable.  So its not that we expect someone like Zay to go out and excel against talent like that, for me it was the degree that he was over matched. 

 

I wouldn't really put that much stock into the "attention" they gave Zay either as any indicator of him being a major threat.  I mean those guys have to cover someone each game and we didnt have any real threats anywhere on the field. 

 

In the Jags game, KB was on the other side and my mother was fast enough to cover him and my grandma could probably out hustle him to the ball.  Made sense to put him more on Zay over KB, plus it also has to do a lot with what side of the field they play.  

 

In the Lions game, the only other WR really was an UDFA named Foster who had been cut earlier in the season. He had a couple moments in a few games, but clearly the pecking order at the stage of the season was Zay was WR1 even though Foster was starting to out perform, albeit in a small sample size then.   

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

This is a pretty devastating take down of this whole thread.  I was told by the OP that the coaches probably believed that Zay was responsible for 9 drops that I said were uncatchable balls. Hard to say the OP wasn't wrong in light of this. 

 

First, how does that blurry screen shot show there is no WR need?  

 

Do you guys even listen to Beane?  He literally said there were WRs in the second they liked a lot and felt could “REALLY HELP THIS FOOTBALL TEAM”...but stayed true to their board where Cody Ford was number one on his board even back in the first round still before it was over.

 

Seriously man, you have more than once now just completely made up false things to try and make a fake point. 

 

I dont care that you think Zay is safe, I’m fine with that stance.  But it’s annoying when you deny drops literally on video and now pretend Bills had no interest in a WR.  

 

Ford was the #1 player on their board, they made the correct choice staying true to it.  By the time pick 74 came, lots of WRs had been picked and the current top player on his board at 74 was Devin.  

 

But hey, guess I should believe your statement over Beanes actual direct answers post draft about WRs.

 

 

Edited May 4, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Alphadawg7]

6 hours ago, Laughing Coffin said:

 

So when the Bills ignored the WR position for the entire draft, signed a CFL player AND picked up an UDFA, you think that sealed Zay's fate he doesn't make the roster????  You're right that it did seal Zay's fate though, but it's his fate of staying on the team. 

 

You can see from the draft war room video released yesterday that the Bills didn't even have WR listed as a position of need in the draft. 

 

2020 NFL Draft is loaded with top WR talent.  This will be a make or break year for Zay and his place on this roster for next season

 

Ignore?  You know they don’t have endless draft picks right?  They took a top 15 talent in the 2nd who was top player on their board.  That’s not ignoring WR, that’s taking BPA which is what Beane said he would do. After a run on WRs in second, Devin was top Player on his board at 74.

 

He literally said he really liked some WRs there but board didn’t fall right where the WR was the choice when in the clock in those first 3 rounds.

 

Try listening to Beane instead of posting grainy pics and forming your narrative that doesn’t match what mean openly discussed

[BillsFan130]

I don’t understand how people can still defend Zay Jones.

 

Call a spade a spade. He has been a major disappointment so far in his career.

 

Is he a bust yet? No but he absolutely needs to take a huge step this year 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

20 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

First, how does that blurry screen shot show there is no WR need?  

 

Do you guys even listen to Beane?  He literally said there were WRs in the second they liked a lot and felt could “REALLY HELP THIS FOOTBALL TEAM”...but stayed true to their board where Cody Ford was number one on his board even back in the first round still before it was over.

 

Seriously man, you have more than once now just completely made up false things to try and make a fake point. 

 

I dont care that you think Zay is safe, I’m fine with that stance.  But it’s annoying when you deny drops literally on video and now pretend Bills had no interest in a WR.  

 

Ford was the #1 player on their board, they made the correct choice staying true to it.  By the time pick 74 came, lots of WRs had been picked and the current top player on his board at 74 was Devin.  

 

But hey, guess I should believe your statement over Beanes actual direct answers post draft about WRs.

 

 

 That is a dizzying spin zone.

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 That is a dizzying spin zone.

 

Yes, your post was, nice self awareness

[njbuff]

2 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

I don’t understand how people can still defend Zay Jones.

 

Call a spade a spade. He has been a major disappointment so far in his career.

 

Is he a bust yet? No but he absolutely needs to take a huge step this year 

 

The Pro Jones people understand this as well as his detractors.

 

I think the new ridiculous argument that a former CFL WR and UDFA WR are better right now is just silly.

 

We will see what happens in August then going forward.

[Toesy]

I have downplayed Jones with my comments but I neglected to mention that the guy definitely knows how to get open in the NFL-which is an important skill-this is why he gets the ball so often-the QB looks and Zay Jones is open-the rest of his game is the problem-but he can get open and knows how to work his way around the field when Allen is improvising. So maybe I underestimated him by ignoring that important skill he has.   

[BillsFan130]

27 minutes ago, njbuff said:

 

The Pro Jones people understand this as well as his detractors.

 

I think the new ridiculous argument that a former CFL WR and UDFA WR are better right now is just silly.

 

We will see what happens in August then going forward.

I legit think some people actually think Jones is descent though. Which is crazy

Edited May 4, 2019 by BillsFan130

[njbuff]

3 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

I legit think some people actually think Jones is descent though. Which is crazy

 

He had 7 TD's last year, which is nothing to sneeze at.

 

He is still on his rookie contract and McDermott isn't just going to cut ties with him now.

 

This is a critical year for him, no matter which side of the isle you are on.

 

I will give him this year as to whether he is decent or not.

 

We shall see.

 

Remember, the only true instant success for this franchise at the WR position was Lee Evans, but he flamed out.

[BillsFan130]

14 minutes ago, njbuff said:

 

He had 7 TD's last year, which is nothing to sneeze at.

 

He is still on his rookie contract and McDermott isn't just going to cut ties with him now.

 

This is a critical year for him, no matter which side of the isle you are on.

 

I will give him this year as to whether he is decent or not.

 

We shall see.

 

Remember, the only true instant success for this franchise at the WR position was Lee Evans, but he flamed out.

Jones just doesn’t pass the eye test for me. He doesn’t have 1 skill that tells me he is going to be a good WR one day.