Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[Toesy]

IMO he will probably play for the Bills this season but he is far from a lock-he is the number 3 or 4 WR right now-it all comes down to the camp and preseason. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Keep in mind, this isnt about whether Zay completely sucks or cant be in the NFL, I never said and thats not my intention.  But let me point out Stevie Johnson because I have had a similarly path with Zay as I did with Stevie.

 

On draft night, I liked both picks (although I preferred JuJu, but still liked Zay too).  With Stevie, I was laughed at for liking the pick (similar how people are mocking the excitement a lot of us have in David Sills V) because he was a lower round pick...that is until he emerged.  I started as a supporter and an early fan as he emerged.  But after watching him over a couple seasons, I began to become critical of his ceiling and relevance.  

 

Was Stevie really good or a JAG who was compiling stats in mostly meaningless minutes to look more productive than he was.  Again, people mocked me even questioning it.  Stevie then leaves in his prime, and becomes just another guy for a few years and was out of the league.  Everything I said about him was proven correct the moment he left Buffalo, even while playing with a future HOF QB.  

 

Enter Zay Jones.  Fans are lashing out here over some pretty mediocre stat totals and without actually analyzing the week to week context of those totals.  Sounds familiar to me as its all the same arguments I got when I was critical of Stevie, Trent and Fitz.  I argued totals are a fools gold conclusion every time and lack the context of what their real week to week value was.  

 

So for me, its nothing more than I don't see Zay showing up when it matters, I dont see him stepping up against good competition, and I have seen less heralded WR's like Foster out play him.  

 

But now the real test begins...he is no longer competing against scrubs for playing time.  Any WR can put some stats up if there is no one else to throw to.  But now, we got some proven weapons and some young hungry guys with their own potential.  He may prove his doubters wrong, and I would LOVE that.  But its no sure thing in my book.  

 

 

Alpha, you absolutely did not say that, you are right.  Additionally, I thought very well of your points the first time around, too.

 

Man, seriously, this is going to be exciting how this plays out.  I am torn.  I truly want what's best for the team...but I never mind being right in threads!  And, seriously, I think the kid has shown growth and he will continue to do so.  We'll see, and the reason why it is going to be so good (I hope) is that it will not be a process of elimination but rather quality competition.

 

Go Bills!

Edited May 2, 2019 by dollars 2 donuts

[ColoradoBills]

10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I like this post and dont really disagree with any of it.  I actually think someone like Duke could push to start.  Be great to have a speedster on one side, a big catch radius guy on the other, and speedy slot guy in Cole.  Duke has to prove he can do it in the NFL still, but if he has a strong camp and preseason it wouldn't surprise me to see him and Brown starting with them rotating Foster in for deep pressure.  

 

Thats all speculation right now of course, but I think Daboll and McD like to attack levels.  And if someone like Duke can emerge, it makes the offense quite difficult to defend when you add in our new TE's and Shady as a reciever too out of the back field.  We can attack everywhere on the field.  Then bring in both Foster and Brown when you want to take the top off and open up the middle.  

 

Thanks Dawg.  Sure Duke could become a great fit.  So can a lot of these guys.

When it comes to the offensive weapons we just got to wait to see what Daboll is going to be doing.

I don't hold much stock in last years schemes and play calling.  He had nothing to work with and had 4 QBs to game plan for.

This year is a complete unknown to me.

[Shaw66]

29 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

What?!  Hahaha, wow...No wonder we disagree if you think only 2 of those were "true drops".  I would bet everything I own in life that his coaches didn't give him a pass in the film room.  

 

No disrespect man, its all good and this is definitely not personal or anything, I got no issue with you or your differing opinion.  I mean, we are all Bills fans and just want whats best for the Bills.  

 

But wow, I am a dumbfounded on how you can only fault Zay on 2 and give him a pass on the rest.  

Alpha - I didn't watch the video, so I don't know.  But I DID watch the video that was up a few weeks ago - something like 8 minutes of Bills dropsfrom 2018, and I was amazed at how many of them were Zay's.  My recollection was that he had been better, but he had a lot of balls that were easy catches that he dropped, and he had several more that were reasonable NFL catches that he dropped.   

 

He has to get better, or he's toast.   And I know you're saying this (you've told us about 100 times) but the more I think about this the more I think he actually could get cut.  

[MrEpsYtown]

1 hour ago, Buffalo03 said:

What do you mean zero opportunity to play? Quinn Early was here in 1998 just like he was in the first 2 years of Moulds career as was Andre Reed. The Bills also had Kevin Williams as well in 1998. Moulds didn't play as much or as well his first two years because he wasn't as good of a player or the light didn't go on yet. Year 3 was when the light went on for him and he started to get it and that is why he got more playing time. Not because of the amount of receivers we had

 

Zero is one word. Did you read the rest? Look at targets? Consider that Early and Reed were very old when Moulds broke out? Moulds did not have enough targets his first two years to make a significant impact. Zay was targeted 176 times in two years and has less than a thousand yards receiving. It isn't about just playing time. It's about targets, That's what I mean when I talk about opportunity. Zay will never be able to come close to Eric Moulds. He doesn't have it. 

[Buffalo03]

3 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Zero is one word. Did you read the rest? Look at targets? Consider that Early and Reed were very old when Moulds broke out? Moulds did not have enough targets his first two years to make a significant impact. Zay was targeted 176 times in two years and has less than a thousand yards receiving. It isn't about just playing time. It's about targets, That's what I mean when I talk about opportunity. Zay will never be able to come close to Eric Moulds. He doesn't have it. 

Maybe Moulds didn't have enough targets because he wasn't earning it on the field his first two years? I know you and other people don't wanna believe that it takes certain players a little extra time to grasp the NFL game but that's what happened to Moulds. Reed and Early were still very productive at that point in their careers. Reed's level of play didn't sink so much from 1996 which was Mould's rookie season until he broke out in 1998. One could even argue with the amount of double coverages that Reed faced in Moulds first two years that Moulds should have feasted on secondaries but he didn't. He broke out in 1998 with the exact same receiving core he had his two prior years. Yes, Moulds had poor QB play his second year but it still didn't affect Andre Reed any. Zay has shown flashes or glimpses of being a more than capable NFL receiver. Sure he's had some drops but he had big progress from year 1 to year 2 and year 1 he had Tyrod who barely threw and had 150 yards a game. Zay should excel this year being in the system for 3 years and having more weapons around him

[Flip Johnson]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

One important thing about last year and this year:

 

Last year, I was one of the few that said Foster was likely going to make the week 1 roster.  Many said I was crazy.  Why did I say he would...not because of all the catches he made, but because he brought something different the other likely kept WRs didnt have...and that was speed and getting open.  He was struggling tracking the ball in preseason, but he was blowing by defenders and getting open.  That different element is what gave him the edge to crack the roster.  

 

This year, enter Duke Williams (and David Sills V).  Like last year, they both have strengths to their game that are not present in the other likely WRs to be on this roster.  Beane brought in 3 big WRs now, and thats a strong indicator he is looking for some size to compliment the other WRs and give Allen a big Redzone and first down target to work with.  

 

There are only so many spots available, and Brown, Foster, and Cole are pretty safe bets to not only be here week 1, but be the top 3 pecking order to start the year off.  Zay could still win a starting spot, and he WILL be given that shot.  But its a lot harder this year than facing off against the likes of Andre Holmes last year.  If he doesnt crack the starting unit, now he is in battle with guys who bring a totally different dimension to the group and based on Beanes comments and signings, its clear Beane desires some size in this room.  

 

So, again, this is why I think Zay has an uphill battle.  And like last year, many said I was crazy about what I said about Foster, and he turned out to be our best WR by seasons end.  

 

Zay will not only be on the team, he is likely to lead the team in catches.

 

The idea that Duke Williams who runs a 4.7 and has played his whole career in Canada, and a UDFA from W. Virginia is somehow endangering Zay Jones' status is absurd.

 

He is an improving player that showed good chemistry with JA down the stretch last year. He will probably go for 65 and 800 this year and we'll still be seeing posts about how he sucks.

[MrEpsYtown]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

Maybe Moulds didn't have enough targets because he wasn't earning it on the field his first two years? I know you and other people don't wanna believe that it takes certain players a little extra time to grasp the NFL game but that's what happened to Moulds. Reed and Early were still very productive at that point in their careers. Reed's level of play didn't sink so much from 1996 which was Mould's rookie season until he broke out in 1998. One could even argue with the amount of double coverages that Reed faced in Moulds first two years that Moulds should have feasted on secondaries but he didn't. He broke out in 1998 with the exact same receiving core he had his two prior years. Yes, Moulds had poor QB play his second year but it still didn't affect Andre Reed any. Zay has shown flashes or glimpses of being a more than capable NFL receiver. Sure he's had some drops but he had big progress from year 1 to year 2 and year 1 he had Tyrod who barely threw and had 150 yards a game. Zay should excel this year being in the system for 3 years and having more weapons around him

 

Id have to go back and watch the games to really know, but I remember Moulds flashing big play abilty and I do remember people being dissapointed that he was not consistent. You make a lot good points, and I understand the idea that people can develop. But Zay has shown no signs that he might be more than he is, which is a mediocre receiver. Is he an NFL receiver? Yes he deserves to be in the league. But he is just meh and will probably not make it to a significant second contract. He's like Jordan Mathews without the size or good hands. 

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Its amazing that after that draft, where we didn't draft a single WR, more people who have agreed with that OP haven't walked away realizing they just have no idea what they are talking about.  I understand saying he has too many drops (he actually only had 3 last year), because that was a problem for him his rookie year, but to say he doesn't get separation is just wrong. It is like saying vaccines are bad for children. Sure, you are entitled to your opinion, but it's wrong. Like, as a point of fact, it is just wrong. 

 

I can think of 4 drops off the top of my head. I don't trust any drop stats. I don't remember what game it was but there was some game with Tyrod at QB where the official stat had it at 2 drops and I could distinctly point 4 drops in that game. I don't know what the official drop stat counts, but it's wrong.

 

Zay runs decent routes. He can get open in the short and intermediate routes on probably an average percentage of plays. He isn't complete trash. But he doesn't separate enough to be a full time starting receiver, and when he doesn't separate he literally has a 0% catch rate in contested situations. I'm not pulling that stat from anywhere, but I cant remember a single contested catch. The defender always wins.

 

I'm genuinely curious what do you think he adds to the offense? Brown and Foster add speed. Beasley adds short area quickness and separation. Duke Williams or Sills, it remains to be seen but they may add contested catch ability. What does Zay add? What does he do at an above average level? If he offers nothing but average to below average skill sets, why would you pencil him in as a starter?

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I can think of 4 drops off the top of my head. I don't trust any drop stats. I don't remember what game it was but there was some game with Tyrod at QB where the official stat had it at 2 drops and I could distinctly point 4 drops in that game. I don't know what the official drop stat counts, but it's wrong.

 

Zay runs decent routes. He can get open in the short and intermediate routes on probably an average percentage of plays. He isn't complete trash. But he doesn't separate enough to be a full time starting receiver, and when he doesn't separate he literally has a 0% catch rate in contested situations. I'm not pulling that stat from anywhere, but I cant remember a single contested catch. The defender always wins.

 

I'm genuinely curious what do you think he adds to the offense? Brown and Foster add speed. Beasley adds short area quickness and separation. Duke Williams or Sills, it remains to be seen but they may add contested catch ability. What does Zay add? What does he do at an above average level? If he offers nothing but average to below average skill sets, why would you pencil him in as a starter?

 

I NEVER trust fan perception and memory. It is biased, it is uninformed, and it is generally unhelpful.  There are passes that fans feel should be caught that people work in around the league know is uncatchable. For example, you say he doesn't separate enough for a full time starting receiver.  Like, what does this even mean in the context of man v. zone defenses.  In a zone you are looking for the soft spots, not getting separation the classic sense like a WR would against man. I point that out because he is a great route runner and our best WR against zone defenses. Which is important because of the way Allen runs with the ball, it forces teams to play zone.  Now, more important is the issue of what an average full time starting receiver is capable of.  This is big for me, since it is pretty obvious that when people talk about the full time starter they are really talking about the WR1.  If you think Zay isn't at the very least, average, you are wrong.  I mean, just look at the stats.  He is mid 40s-50s in ypc, yards, catches, etc.  There are 32 teams, 64 starting WRs (more since most teams actually start 3 wrs).  He is perfectly average, and thus deserving of a starting spot. 

[berg1029]

Coming into this thread a bit late (30 pages in!  holy moly).  I have two things to say:

 

1.  Zay's hands improved considerably from year one to year two.  Year one he was the worst WR that I have ever seen.  He was that bad, couldn't catch a cold in December.  To me, it felt like he was getting open but just wasn't making any catches.  Year two, he was no longer god awful, which was a BIG step up from what he was that first year.  His hands have improved considerably in his first two years, and that alone means he should -at the very least- be on the team next year.

 

2.  He seemed to thrive when plays broke down. Whenever Allen was being flushed out of the pocket, it felt like the person he was hitting was Zay.  I don't know if this is because Allen had more trust in him or because the other WR on the field (usually Foster) was likely deeper.  Either way, it kind of felt like he and Allen were on the same page a lot of the time.  Everyone has been saying that Allen needs a WR to grow with.. Zay might be that guy

[Buffalo03]

36 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Id have to go back and watch the games to really know, but I remember Moulds flashing big play abilty and I do remember people being dissapointed that he was not consistent. You make a lot good points, and I understand the idea that people can develop. But Zay has shown no signs that he might be more than he is, which is a mediocre receiver. Is he an NFL receiver? Yes he deserves to be in the league. But he is just meh and will probably not make it to a significant second contract. He's like Jordan Mathews without the size or good hands. 

Yes, Moulds was very inconsistent his first two seasons. Lots of dropped balls, not winning on routes, I remember thinking how I thought he was gonna be a bust. He was a completely different receiver in year 3. It just took time for him to adjust. This will be a make or break year for Zay. I think he did make a few strides last year but this is the year he has to take it to the next level. If he doesn't then I feel it would be time to move on 

[ngbills]

7 hours ago, K-9 said:

What about the Duke reminds you of Rogers? 

From a fan perspective. Not the players. Just this idea that a guy that previously was not good enough to be on an NFL roster is being touted as almost a sure thing. Like Rogers, Duke is more likely to not make the team than he is to be the #1 WR. 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Flip Johnson said:

 

 

The idea that Duke Williams who runs a 4.7 and has played his whole career in Canada, and a UDFA from W. Virginia is somehow endangering Zay Jones' status is absurd.

 

It isn't absurd.  Williams and Sills both had multiple NFL teams who wanted them.  Neither is likely to last on the practice squad, if they show anything in camp.  The question isn't whether either is better than Zay now.  The question is whether they look like they will be better in November or December, as they gain experience.   They will improve more in the upcoming six months than Zay will.  

 

If they look like they will be better than Zay over time, Zay is in trouble.  Someone will give Buffalo a sixth or seventh round pick for him.

  

[atlbillsfan1975]

Zay will have to have a serious off field issue and follow it up win a terrible preseason. Barring that, which I see neither happening, Zay will be on the team.

[Teddy KGB]

6 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

ZJ is most likely gonna have a career year and make this thread look silly.  What’s the point of arguing over this. 

 

Gotta replace “most likely” with maybe or I hope . 

9 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Zay will lead the team in receiving. People here are way too hard on him.

 

Because he hardly shows up when needed 

3 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

Oh I don't know 

 

Maybe BECAUSE he was the leading target / receiver.  

 

 

On a team in the cellar for passing stats.   

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

Oh I don't know 

 

Maybe BECAUSE he was the leading target / receiver.  

 

 

And how many catches did he have in relation to his drops?  What was his overall catch rate?  Hint:  None of those answers are good.

3 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Thanks Dawg.  Sure Duke could become a great fit.  So can a lot of these guys.

When it comes to the offensive weapons we just got to wait to see what Daboll is going to be doing.

I don't hold much stock in last years schemes and play calling.  He had nothing to work with and had 4 QBs to game plan for.

This year is a complete unknown to me.

 

Agree, and I also think we could see a lot of 2 TE sets this year with Knox staying into block/release and Knox down the seam.  

3 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

Alpha, you absolutely did not say that, you are right.  Additionally, I thought very well of your points the first time around, too.

 

Man, seriously, this is going to be exciting how this plays out.  I am torn.  I truly want what's best for the team...but I never mind being right in threads!  And, seriously, I think the kid has shown growth and he will continue to do so.  We'll see, and the reason why it is going to be so good (I hope) is that it will not be a process of elimination but rather quality competition.

 

Go Bills!

 

Thanks, and yeah like I have said from the beginning, I am not making some guaranteed proclamation.  I originally just shared my gut feeling on what I thought Beane would do in the offseason and how that could affect camp and preseason.  I am not invested in being right here, I am invested in the Bills being the best team they can be.  I will be the biggest Zay Jones fan every time he is on the field if he proves my doubts wrong.  

 

That being said, nothing has happened to change my opinion since the original post to make me feel better about Zay because they have not stepped on the field yet.  So obviously, my opinion persists until I see something different on the field to change it.  

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Alpha - I didn't watch the video, so I don't know.  But I DID watch the video that was up a few weeks ago - something like 8 minutes of Bills dropsfrom 2018, and I was amazed at how many of them were Zay's.  My recollection was that he had been better, but he had a lot of balls that were easy catches that he dropped, and he had several more that were reasonable NFL catches that he dropped.   

 

He has to get better, or he's toast.   And I know you're saying this (you've told us about 100 times) but the more I think about this the more I think he actually could get cut.  

 

I believe the video you watched before is the same video here.  It was originally posted a little while ago, was always a 5 min video.  So I am pretty certain its the same so don't need to watch it again. 

 

[HOUSE]

Oh geeeez, don't call it now!!

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Flip Johnson said:

 

Zay will not only be on the team, he is likely to lead the team in catches.

 

The idea that Duke Williams who runs a 4.7 and has played his whole career in Canada, and a UDFA from W. Virginia is somehow endangering Zay Jones' status is absurd.

 

He is an improving player that showed good chemistry with JA down the stretch last year. He will probably go for 65 and 800 this year and we'll still be seeing posts about how he sucks.

 

Really?  Care to provide proof?  Here let me help:  Josh Allen returned against the Jags, so there were 6 games down the stretch with Allen:

1. Week 12 - Bills defeat Jags 24-21:  Zay 0 receptions on 1 target,  for 0 yards and 0 TDs 
   1. Do I even need to say anything here, he did absolutely nothing while Foster had a big game.  
2. Week 13 - Bills lose to Miami:  17-21:  Zay 4 rec on 9 targets for 67 yards, 2 TDs.
   1. First productive game with Allen, still had a catch % of just 44% and failed to make some plays, including one that hurt our ability to win this game late.
3. Week 14 - Bills lose to Jets:  23-27:  Zay 3 rec on 9 targets, for 22 yards, 0 TDs
   1. A 33% catch rate and 22 yards of production...terrible game again
4. Week 15 - Bills defeat Lions:  14-13:  Zay 1 rec on 6 targets, 11 yards
   1. This might have been his worst game in his career, definitely of the season.  Was DOMINATED by Slay...about as bad as I have seen a WR get owned.  
5. Week 16 - Bills lose to pats:  12-24:  Zay 5 rec on 9 targets, 67 yards 1 TD
   1. Looks good to you stat sheet analysts, HOWEVER:  Down 3 scores with 1 minute left in the game, Zay had 4 rec on 8 targets for 34 yards.  He got a free walk in uncovered TD at the end to trick the stat sheet analysts, but he was terrible again this game and got half his yards and a TD on a free play at end of game when it didnt matter. 
6. Week 17 - Bills defeat Miami:  42-17:  Zay 6 rec on 9 targets, 93 yards, 2 TDs
   1. Finally, ONE relevant game with Josh Allen in week 17 against a bad Miami team who didnt even show up.  Not sure I am comfortable claiming he came on down the stretch and banking on his future success off this one game.    

So let me ask you again and others who have made this mythical claim of how Zay caught fire to end the season and found chemistry with Allen.  Where is this made up chemistry?  Where did he catch fire?  

 

In the final 6 games, he only had any real production in both Miami games.  And in the first Miami game, he failed to haul in a critical pass last that contributed significantly to this loss.  He only caught 44% of the passes thrown his way in those 6 games and was utter garbage in weeks 14, 15, and 16 while also failing to make a play we needed in our loss to Miami in week 13.  

 

Its nice to just say things, but its a whole other ball game to know if it really happened or not.