Poor O-Line play is league-wide problem not just Bills

[GunnerBill]

35 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

 

If a better option is obtainable, but you could do much worse.

 

This is the key for me with Mills. If he'd sign a similar deal to now to stay one more year I'd do that and try and draft his replacement somewhere from round 3 on. I suspect he will get paid as a starter somewhere though (rather than the quality backup money we have been paying him). Basically the worst outcome at right tackle is moving on from Mills to make ourselves feel better only to end up with inferior tackle play next season. Miller is among the worst 5 or 6 starting tackles in the league but he is better than almost anyone who is a backup.

[ProcessTruster]

Having the same coaching staff as last year will help.    

[DefenseWins]

9 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I don't think I missed anybody. 5 starting linemen out of 50 who were top ten picks. First round picks? Yeah there are more. But out of those top ten o lines, just five top ten picks. 

 

You are missing one big point, and that is that the Bills have done a ***** job of doing anything for the last 15-20 years or so. That has absolutely nothing to do with the current regime. Sure this concept has not worked for us, but it has worked with pretty much every other good team in the league. 

 

A lot of people want to go ahead and draft Jonah Williams in the top ten. He looked like garbage when playing against NFL level competition, and there are a whole bunch of questions if he can even stick at tackle. Making a pick like that is simply idiotic. It's a reach, and it's what gets GMs fired. 

 

This team hasnt really bothered to draft many offensive linemen in the mid to late rounds. There are years in which they drafted no linemen at all. I like the thought process of the Teller and Dawkins picks. That's what I want to see more of. Not reaches in the first round. 

 

Please tell me who all all of these amazing top ten picked offensive linemen are around the league. If you look at the playoff teams is year there are a few. Tyron Smith, Eric Fisher (largely considered a bust), Ronnie Stanley, Russel Okung (not his original team), Quentin Nelson, Lane Johnson. That's six guys who were drafted in the top ten. 

 

If you want to look at top offenses in the NFL, KC had Fisher, Indy had Nelson, the Chargers had Okung, and the Falcons had Mathews and Mack. That's 5 guys. Those are the only top ten drafted offensive linemen who are starting on the top ten scoring offenses in the NFL in 2018. Fisher is considered a bust, and Okung and Mack are not with the teams who drafted them. What you do see is a ton of late first round picks, second round and third round picks, and UDFAs. 

 

Joe Thomas really did a ton to help the Browns be winners. The Titans have a left tackle drafted eleventh and a right tackle drafted eight, and they still suck. And their best lineman is their left guard who went undrafted. It's about using resources wisely and building a team. There is not really a formula, but reaching in the top ten to fill a hole is the worst thing you can do. 

 

This is not not a theory, it is a fact. There are so many busted top ten linemen in the NFL and it is a terrible place to reach for a guy to fill a hole. Draft BPA and do not draft for need. Be wise and target the guys in the mid rounds who can will fit what you what to do and will improve your team. 

 

 

Lane Johnson 2013 NFL Draft #4 Overall pick RT...

Jake Matthews 2014 NFL Draft #6 Overall pick...

 

Edited February 18, 2019 by DefenseWins

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, GreggTX said:

 

Seldom does it happen and usually only at the top of the draft that there is one player that clearly stands above the rest so that you'd ignore your needs and select the clear BPA. Instead, you're probably looking at several players with very similar scores, in which case you take the one that fills the greatest need. Yes to BPA, but only when it applies. I think the BPA argument can sometimes be overblown, especially after the first or second round. You also have to look at points where the talent level drops precipitously for positions of need.

 

Indeed - it is always about tiers. But you have to start from the principle that you are going to select the guy who is at the top of your board when you go on the clock. Then you look at how that player fits your team. Never pass on an elite prospect to draft a good prospect even if you have two pro bowlers at the position the BPA plays and two borderline starters at the position the "good" player you want to take instead plays.

 

As my board starts to come together I have four guys in my top tier:- Bosa, Oliver, Allen and Quinnen Williams. If any of those four are there the Bills should select them. I then have another tier that is made up of White, Gary, Ferrell, Greedy Williams and did have Simmons too (obviously the off field stuff and the ACL affects his stock). I'd be very wary about passing on any of the four of those still healthy to reach down the board too. After that I get to a tier which includes Jonah Williams (my highest rated offensive player and the #13 player on my board). I would be less concerned if they took Jonah ahead of say Deionte Thompson (who is my #11) because I think you are still picking in that same tier of talent.

 

Edited February 18, 2019 by GunnerBill

[formerlyofCtown]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This is the key for me with Mills. If he'd sign a similar deal to now to stay one more year I'd do that and try and draft his replacement somewhere from round 3 on. I suspect he will get paid as a starter somewhere though (rather than the quality backup money we have been paying him). Basically the worst outcome at right tackle is moving on from Mills to make ourselves feel better only to end up with inferior tackle play next season. Miller is among the worst 5 or 6 starting tackles in the league but he is better than almost anyone who is a backup.

Mills you mean

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Mills you mean

 

Sorry - yes.... ignore the erroneous Miller that slipped in. I mean Mills.

45 minutes ago, DefenseWins said:

 

Lane Johnson 2013 NFL Draft #4 Overall pick RT...

Jake Matthews 2014 NFL Draft #6 Overall pick...

 

 

Johnson counts, Matthews doesn't - because he was specifically listing guys on the top 10 ranked OLines of 2018 who have been top 10 picks. The Falcons line was not a top 10 line.

 

I like Jake Matthews a lot though. I couldn't believe Greg Robinson went off the board ahead of him.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

On 2/17/2019 at 3:50 AM, Buffalo Barbarian said:

This true but we had a pretty good line until we lost Glenn , Ritchie and Wood.

say who????     

 

Agree with the OP.   Sometimes the QB and or an elite RB can make the Line look better than it is. 

[CookieG]

13 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I don't think I missed anybody. 5 starting linemen out of 50 who were top ten picks. First round picks? Yeah there are more. But out of those top ten o lines, just five top ten picks. 

 

You answered more a few paragraphs down.  Jake Matthews is another.  But if you notice a pattern with some of these guys, they were chosen by teams that know offense, and have become parts of teams that are, or have recently been top 5 offenses in the league. 

 

Fisher in KC

Matthews in Atl

Nelson in Indy

Lane Johnson in Philly

 

There's a reason that these top O's look early for quality O line help.  They understand that area of the football field and know the importance of it. 

 

Then there are franchises like the Bills..who do the "we can get them later in the draft" routine. They've basically done the same thing for years and more often than not, are in the bottom 1/3 of NFL offenses.  You know, like last year when they were 30th in the league.

 

Long ago for this team to change its way of thinking...to actually start thinking of how the good teams do it.  They aren't outsmarting anyone. 

13 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

You are missing one big point, and that is that the Bills have done a ***** job of doing anything for the last 15-20 years or so. That has absolutely nothing to do with the current regime. Sure this concept has not worked for us, but it has worked with pretty much every other good team in the league. 

 

 

 

No, they've done some good things in the past. At various times they've:

 

had the 2nd ranked D in the league, 2 years in a row;

had the 4th ranked D;

led the league in sacks, 2 years in a row;

had the 2nd ranked pass D in 2009;

had the 1st ranked pass D last year.

 

They've had a long string of PB quality running backs. Of course, they just kept using a number one on a guy's eventual replacement and dump the present back for peanuts.

 

The 2 biggest areas of neglect have been...QB obviously... and OL. 

 

How many wins has that brought them? How many playoff appearances? How many good offenses? Again, its really time to change the thinking for this franchise.

 

The second part of this paragraph actually made me chuckle.  Ok, maybe it is a bit unfair judging them by past regimes. So we'll judge their body of work over 2 years. Um...uh...who are these late round gems or underappreciated FA's that this regime has brought in over the past 2 years that makes you think they are able to find OL that other teams haven't? 

 

I mean, over 2 years, they've assembled one of the worst OL in recent Bills history, and that's saying something.  I'm just a wee bit skeptical that they've become the Steelers scouting dept., or Ozzie Newsome, or NE when it comes to finding these late round gems.

 

If anything, this is THE reason they should be drafting them early.  If they are going to be throwing darts at a board, they might as well throw it at a group that has a better chance of making it.

 

 

13 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

A lot of people want to go ahead and draft Jonah Williams in the top ten. He looked like garbage when playing against NFL level competition, and there are a whole bunch of questions if he can even stick at tackle. Making a pick like that is simply idiotic. It's a reach, and it's what gets GMs fired. 

 

Having a 30th ranked O and being out of the playoff hunt before Halloween is the thing that gets GM's fired..and rightfully so. And drafting another CB isn't getting them off the 30th ranking.

 

As far as Williams, I watched the Williams- Ferrell matchups from both their games pretty closely. In the most recent game...Ferrell beat him 3-4 times, including one notorious play where he knocked Williams on his ass.  On the other 30-40 plays, Williams won or had him stalemated.  

 

But this is what people do.  They take a match up, see one play and say, "OMG, he kicked his ass!" regardless of whether he did anything for the other 90% of the plays. Ferrell wasn't the reason Clemson won.

 

I like Williams...I'm not sure of some things...but he's an expert technician and has very good feet. He'll find a home in the NFL. Irrespective, there are others out there.

 

13 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

 

This team hasnt really bothered to draft many offensive linemen in the mid to late rounds. There are years in which they drafted no linemen at all. I like the thought process of the Teller and Dawkins picks. That's what I want to see more of. Not reaches in the first round. 

 

They have...they just don't work out, like most 5-7th round picks don't and are easily forgotten. Not as many as other teams, but they've had their share.  I've counted 14 since 2005 drafted below the 3rd round...one in the past 2 years.

 

 

13 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Please tell me who all all of these amazing top ten picked offensive linemen are around the league. If you look at the playoff teams is year there are a few. Tyron Smith, Eric Fisher (largely considered a bust), Ronnie Stanley, Russel Okung (not his original team), Quentin Nelson, Lane Johnson. That's six guys who were drafted in the top ten. 

 

See above. 

13 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

If you want to look at top offenses in the NFL, KC had Fisher, Indy had Nelson, the Chargers had Okung, and the Falcons had Mathews and Mack. That's 5 guys. Those are the only top ten drafted offensive linemen who are starting on the top ten scoring offenses in the NFL in 2018. Fisher is considered a bust, and Okung and Mack are not with the teams who drafted them. What you do see is a ton of late first round picks, second round and third round picks, and UDFAs. 

 

Joe Thomas really did a ton to help the Browns be winners. The Titans have a left tackle drafted eleventh and a right tackle drafted eight, and they still suck. And their best lineman is their left guard who went undrafted. It's about using resources wisely and building a team. There is not really a formula, but reaching in the top ten to fill a hole is the worst thing you can do. 

This is coming from a fan of a team with one playoff appearance in 18 years and a bottom third offense for most of that time.

It IS about using resources wisely...we just haven't been.

 

Sorry, when we have a string of playoff victories, or make it to the dance, or actually have an offense that isn't towards the bottom of the league...we can talk about the smart way we've been allocating resources.

 

Philly drafted Lane Johnson...at no. 4, at RT,  when they had a fringe HOF'er at LT..after they whiffed on a 1st round G two years prior. Many questioned the pick. They have a ring to show for it and one of the best O's in the league.

 

Andy Reid took Eric Fisher with the number one pick when the Chiefs needed...basically everything. They went from 32nd in O to 6th in one year. A top 10 offense 4 of the 6 years he's been there.  Within one Offside call/coin flip from a trip to the dance.

 

 

13 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

This is not not a theory, it is a fact. There are so many busted top ten linemen in the NFL and it is a terrible place to reach for a guy to fill a hole. Draft BPA and do not draft for need. Be wise and target the guys in the mid rounds who can will fit what you what to do and will improve your team. 

 

Spock: Mr. Scott cannot give me exact figures, so I will take a guess.

Kirk: Really Spock, you?  That's incredible!

Spock: I don't think he understands.

Bones: No Spock, he understands perfectly. He just trusts your guesses more than other people's facts.

 

The fact is...this was a bad offense, with a bad OL..and the time honored, "we'll get them later in the draft" theory....hasn't gotten a single OL since Jason Peters. I'm missing the evidence for the theory on this one.

 

People can continue to believe it, but after 18 years of failure, I have no idea why.

 

But if it makes them happy.

 

[Dr. Who]

I'm not opposed to drafting an olineman early, but I'd rather go the veteran free agent route. I'm not convinced the o-line available in this draft is worthy of a top ten pick.

[formerlyofCtown]

5 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

say who????     

 

Agree with the OP.   Sometimes the QB and or an elite RB can make the Line look better than it is. 

Richie Incognito was always a top shelf gaurd.  How did Shady look this year.  Also Barry Sanders played behind terrible Olines and you could still tell the Oline was terrible.

[Chris66]

17 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

How does NE do it so well? 

 

Dante Scarrnechia. Probably one of the best ol coaches ever.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Richie Incognito was always a top shelf gaurd.  How did Shady look this year.  Also Barry Sanders played behind terrible Olines and you could still tell the Oline was terrible.

I said sometimes - not all time 

 

 

[Dr.Sack]

2 hours ago, Chris66 said:

 

Dante Scarrnechia. Probably one of the best ol coaches ever.

Nothing to do with short dink and dunk passes and run heavy fronts early tiring out the defense? 

[formerlyofCtown]

2 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

I said sometimes - not all time 

 

 

K fair enough.

[Nihilarian]

3 hours ago, Chris66 said:

 

Dante Scarrnechia. Probably one of the best ol coaches ever.

Not only that but they have an elite scouting staff that can find quality O linemen later in the draft and when they see someone they like early they draft them. Nate Solder was the 17th pick in the first round for the Patriots in 2011. 

 

 

The thing is Buffalo did draft Center Eric Woods in the first round, OG Andy Levitre in the second round in 2009 and both worked out well.  Like with Jason Peters, this franchise didn't want to pay Levitre the going rate so they let him walk...then didn't adequately replace him. It wasn't until 2012 that Buddy Nix drafted Cordy Glenn in the second round and that pick also worked out well. Jason Peters is still playing LT for the Eagles. Now just imagine what a line with Peters, Incognito, Woods, Levitre, Glenn would have looked like.  

 

McD drafted Dion Dawkins in the second round in 2017 to replace Jordan Mills at RT and then Glenn got injured and went out for the season so Dawkins moved over to replace him at LT. Glenn played the first two games.

 

When the Bills have used a first or second round pick on an offensive lineman they have worked out without question. It's all these players they draft after the third round that usually don't work out.  

 

As for veteran free agent linemen, the Bills have been burned big time doing this in the past as this is what pissed off Jason Peters that he demanded more money after the team brought in high priced free agents Derick Dockery, Langston Walker who both stunk and were being paid more than Peters.

Anyone else recalls Whaley's attempt at free agency O linemen in Chris Williams who signed a four year 13.5 million dollar contract with 5.5 million guaranteed ...the guy lasted a whole 3 game starts before being benched and cut after the season. 

Buddy Nix also had a bite of the crap apple O linemen in Cornell Green who he signed before the 2010 season and lasted a whole five games before being benched/outright cut. Another 5 mill wasted.  

 

I'd rather see the team use the resources to build the line through the draft. Problem is they need to draft a OC, LG, LT and move Dawkins to RT or LG. 

[Punching Bag]

On 2/17/2019 at 3:50 AM, Buffalo Barbarian said:

This true but we had a pretty good line until we lost Glenn , Ritchie and Wood.

And still had one while Glenn sat out injured.