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McBeane's Moves Now Are For 2020 Success


Inigo Montoya

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12 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Like I said, I understand that's what you want and what you would do as owner.   

 

And like I said, what I'm talking about is what I think the McBeane and the Pegulas are doing.  You don't have to like it.  You can disagree with it.   But it's pretty ignorant of you to criticize fans for having the wrong attitude about this.   I'm not talking about what I'd do; I'm talking about I think the Pegulas will do.  

 

The Pegulas made a huge mistake when they hired Rex.  They figured that out.   They took a different approach with this hire.   

 

Whether you like it or not, McDermott and then Beane sold the Pegulas the process, and the Pegulas bought it. 

 

Whether you like it or not, all indications are that all four of them still believe the process is the way to go.  

 

Whether you like it or not, Terry Pegula understands that building success takes time.  It took him decades to earn $5 billion.

 

So whether you like it or not, the Pegulas are going to measure success in terms of the process, not in terms of wins and losses.   If McBeane say the process is on track, and if the Pegulas agree, no one's losing their job with 7 wins.  Of course, if the Pegulas don't agree, then McBeane will be gone.  

 

My point only is that some other owners may fire their head coach based on one season's record; I don't think that's what the Pegulas are thinking.  

I spend it because I like going to the games.  Pretty basic.  

Well the elder fans who criticize the younger fans sure have been proven right over the years haven't they?

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On 2/16/2019 at 12:12 AM, Inigo Montoya said:

I think a lot of people on this board are getting too far over their skis with their expectations for the Bills this season.  I think we can be in the mix for a Wild Card at the end of the season but we are not going to be making a playoff run this year.  McBeane knows that.  McBeane is still working on setting the table this year.  He is not building a roster in this year's free agency and draft to win in 2019, he is looking at least one more year down the road.

 

That's why I'd be surprised if McBeane goes TE shopping in free agency this year.  This is one of the deepest TE drafts ever and we have boatloads of picks.  Why burn a big chunk of cash on a middle of the road free agent TE when you can get a good one on a rookie contract and let him develop on a team friendly deal for the next four years?  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bills grab two TEs in the draft this year with Clay being released.  I do hope he goes after O-linemen aggressively in free agency this year.  Talented "Hog Mollies" are really hard to find and need some time playing together to really gel and become a solid unit. 

 

Realistically, years 3/4/5 of Josh Allen's rookie contract are when we will have a team ready to start making deep playoff runs.  That is not this season.  If Allen continues to develop this year he will be ready to roll and we should have a roster built of young and talented 2nd , 3rd , and 4th year players with a few key veterans on each side of the ball ready to take that step along with Allen.  

 

I think Beane and McDermott feel like Terry and Kim have their backs and will give them the time they need to  build a roster the right way for long term success.  I'm a long suffering Bills fan just like everyone else here but I'm willing to wait one more year if it will help create a team capable of sustained excellence like in the Kelly Era.  I think that is the type of roster McBeane is trying to build. 

 

I think McBeane's offseason moves this year are designed to bear fruit in two or three years when the Bills are in their playoff window, not this year.  I think McBeane is looking at this year's free agency  and draft with a different timeline in mind compared to many here and it will color every decision McBeane makes.

 

 

He needs success this year... Why is this team the only one allowed to have no turn around for YEARS?

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28 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Like I said, I understand that's what you want and what you would do as owner.   

 

And like I said, what I'm talking about is what I think the McBeane and the Pegulas are doing.  You don't have to like it.  You can disagree with it.   But it's pretty ignorant of you to criticize fans for having the wrong attitude about this.   I'm not talking about what I'd do; I'm talking about I think the Pegulas will do.  

 

The Pegulas made a huge mistake when they hired Rex.  They figured that out.   They took a different approach with this hire.   

 

Whether you like it or not, McDermott and then Beane sold the Pegulas the process, and the Pegulas bought it. 

 

Whether you like it or not, all indications are that all four of them still believe the process is the way to go.  

 

Whether you like it or not, Terry Pegula understands that building success takes time.  It took him decades to earn $5 billion.

 

So whether you like it or not, the Pegulas are going to measure success in terms of the process, not in terms of wins and losses.   If McBeane say the process is on track, and if the Pegulas agree, no one's losing their job with 7 wins.  Of course, if the Pegulas don't agree, then McBeane will be gone.  

 

My point only is that some other owners may fire their head coach based on one season's record; I don't think that's what the Pegulas are thinking.  

I spend it because I like going to the games.  Pretty basic.  

I think I pretty much agree with you though I think we might get pleasantly surprised this season. But I think it's like this last season the team seemed somewhat designed to not be good yet but the coaches and the players went into with the mindset to win. Bean working on the outside to put the team in a position where that mindset can get results on a consistent basis. This season I think there could be a lot of improvement but I also think that if they're adding a lot of new pieces on offense it might take a little while to get them to coalesce together.

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McBeane, for the first time, will be adding overall talent to the roster.  So far, it's been trade a guy and get a pick.  Or waive a guy and sign a guy.  Net zero sum.

 

Between free agency and draft this ofsseason, they will add 8 to 12 guys to the roster who have contracts longer than one year.

 

Will this put them in the postseason in 2019?  I sure hope so.  I'm expecting it.

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26 minutes ago, mannc said:

Not trying to be flippant, but do you have an inside source or is this just your conclusion based on what we’ve all seen and read?

A little bit of both.  I'm going primarily on what I hear McBeane say, and I think a lot of fans aren't paying attention.   They have a process, as we all know, and the more I watch what they're doing and what they're saying, it's clear that it's a long-term process of continuous improvement.  It's based on setting performance objectives for each individual, not about setting outcomes for the team.  

 

For example, Beane has said over and over that they will be conservative in free agency.   If your job depended on making the playoffs THIS YEAR and you had a ton of cap space, wouldn't you be buying every star player you could, blowing all your cap money this year?   Why not?  If you don't win this year, you're out, so why would you be saving any cap room for your successor?   But he's been very clear about this.  He has said over and over he's building for the long-term.   He's gotta feel reasonably secure about his job to be taking that approach. 

 

So I have reached this conclusion from what I've seen and read.  However, I also have a little inside information that suggests that (1) yes, as far as the Pegulas are concerned, McBeane must show real progress this year - there are no excuses, but (2) progress isn't necessarily measured in wins.   I think that means things like the young players (Allen, Edmunds, White, Milano} have to take the next step, overall talent continues to improve, competitiveness in big games continues to improve - things like that.  

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7 minutes ago, DCbillsfan said:

McBeane, for the first time, will be adding overall talent to the roster.  So far, it's been trade a guy and get a pick.  Or waive a guy and sign a guy.  Net zero sum.

 

Between free agency and draft this ofsseason, they will add 8 to 12 guys to the roster who have contracts longer than one year.

 

I think this is an important point, and it's why I said in a way this is McDermott's first season.   This will be the first roster that is completely McBeane's.   The few holdovers from REx's term are there because McBeane want them.  Everyone else is now a guy they wanted.  

 

On top of that, everyone on the roster today (except the couple of free agent signings) knows the process and what's expected of them, and every guy who joins the team from here on out will learn from the veterans how this team operates.   That's a different environment from McDermott's first year, and even to an extent last season.  

 

McBeane will tell you they don't have all the talent they want, but they now have the kind of players they want.  

 

I think the important point in all this is not just that this is what McBeane are doing, but that they talk to the Pegulas about it and the Pegulas understand this is what is happening.  So the Pegulas' expectations are NOT that this will be a playoff team this season, although that might happen.   Their expectation is that the team will be better than last season in ways that are consistent with the way McBeane are trying to build it.  

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2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think this is an important point, and it's why I said in a way this is McDermott's first season.   This will be the first roster that is completely McBeane's.   The few holdovers from REx's term are there because McBeane want them.  Everyone else is now a guy they wanted.  

 

On top of that, everyone on the roster today (except the couple of free agent signings) knows the process and what's expected of them, and every guy who joins the team from here on out will learn from the veterans how this team operates.   That's a different environment from McDermott's first year, and even to an extent last season.  

 

McBeane will tell you they don't have all the talent they want, but they now have the kind of players they want.  

 

I think the important point in all this is not just that this is what McBeane are doing, but that they talk to the Pegulas about it and the Pegulas understand this is what is happening.  So the Pegulas' expectations are NOT that this will be a playoff team this season, although that might happen.   Their expectation is that the team will be better than last season in ways that are consistent with the way McBeane are trying to build it.  

The clock starts as soon the coach signs the contract. 

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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

The NFL is a collection of 32 business owners, and it's only about wins in the way each owner decides it's about wins.   Jerry Jones has stuck with Howdy Doody down there longer than I would have thought possible, and no one is about wins more than Jerry Jones. 

 

What I'm saying is McBeane have a process, and they've sold the Pegulas on the process.  All four of them understand what 2019 success means in terms of the process, and I don't believe that the 2019 measure of success is some number of wins.  It's measurable progress on dozens and dozens of objectives.   They can make that progress and still not win 8 games, and if that happens, I think the Pegulas are in for another year.  

 

Simply put, under the process, won-loss record in 2019 is not a primary objective. 

 

Yes and no.  I understand what you are saying. I think if they go 5-11, there will be a problem.  Even if the 11 games are all lost by a field goal. 

 

I think this year needs to be a wild card race team up through the final weeks. If they miss, okay. But it should be close. 

 

After next season, we should looking for double digit wins. 

 

It’s not about a specific number, but the numbers usually indicate quality.  9-10 win seasons are wild card.  11+ wins are division winners.  

 

But again, I get what you’re saying too. 

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Just now, Straight Hucklebuck said:

The clock starts as soon the coach signs the contract. 

In your world.   

 

When you buy a team, that's the way you can run it.  

 

It was completely clear to me, if not you, that McDermott had AT LEAST three years the day he was hired.   And once he got to the playoffs, it was quite likely that three became four.  

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1 minute ago, Virgil said:

 

Yes and no.  I understand what you are saying. I think if they go 5-11, there will be a problem.  Even if the 11 games are all lost by a field goal. 

 

I think this year needs to be a wild card race team up through the final weeks. If they miss, okay. But it should be close. 

 

After next season, we should looking for double digit wins. 

 

It’s not about a specific number, but the numbers usually indicate quality.  9-10 win seasons are wild card.  11+ wins are division winners.  

 

But again, I get what you’re saying too. 

Yeah, I pretty much agree with this.  The Bills win 5 games this season, it's pretty clear that something is wrong with the process or the people running it.   I've said all along that I think McDermott is at risk with 6 wins and at serious risk with 5 (absent some unusual circumstances, like injuries to a lot of key players).   

 

I think, as you say, in the wild card race into at least December isn't essential, but not an unreasonable expectation.

 

And I think, as you say, if they don't get to double digit wins in 2020, one or both of McBeane are in trouble.   Not 2019, but 2020.   By then, Allen and Edmunds are in their third seasons, the roster is completely of McBeane's making, McDermott should be well past rookie mistakes and should have assembled a quality coaching staff.  If they aren't winning in 2020, something's wrong and it's almost certainly on McBeane.  

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8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

In your world.   

 

When you buy a team, that's the way you can run it.  

 

It was completely clear to me, if not you, that McDermott had AT LEAST three years the day he was hired.   And once he got to the playoffs, it was quite likely that three became four.  

The three guaranteed I agree with. Playoffs getting a fourth? Not sure about that.

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18 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

A little bit of both.  I'm going primarily on what I hear McBeane say, and I think a lot of fans aren't paying attention.   They have a process, as we all know, and the more I watch what they're doing and what they're saying, it's clear that it's a long-term process of continuous improvement.  It's based on setting performance objectives for each individual, not about setting outcomes for the team.  

 

For example, Beane has said over and over that they will be conservative in free agency.   If your job depended on making the playoffs THIS YEAR and you had a ton of cap space, wouldn't you be buying every star player you could, blowing all your cap money this year?   Why not?  If you don't win this year, you're out, so why would you be saving any cap room for your successor?   But he's been very clear about this.  He has said over and over he's building for the long-term.   He's gotta feel reasonably secure about his job to be taking that approach. 

 

So I have reached this conclusion from what I've seen and read.  However, I also have a little inside information that suggests that (1) yes, as far as the Pegulas are concerned, McBeane must show real progress this year - there are no excuses, but (2) progress isn't necessarily measured in wins.   I think that means things like the young players (Allen, Edmunds, White, Milano} have to take the next step, overall talent continues to improve, competitiveness in big games continues to improve - things like that.  

You may very well be right.  I believe in 2019 it will be very important for McDermott to show that he isn’t completely out of his depth vs Belichick.  He’s been awful vs NE in his first 4 games.  The Bills can never achieve their goals until they beat NE on a semi-regular basis.  I’m not sure that Sean has that in him.

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5 minutes ago, mannc said:

You may very well be right.  I believe in 2019 it will be very important for McDermott to show that he isn’t completely out of his depth vs Belichick.  He’s been awful vs NE in his first 4 games.  The Bills can never achieve their goals until they beat NE on a semi-regular basis.  I’m not sure that Sean has that in him.

If I were Pegula, I wouldn't agree with you.   There is NO coach since Bill Walsh whom I would expect to be able to compete with Belichick, so to set Belichick is the hurdle is to doom yourself to failure.  You'll probably NEVER hire that coach.  That's like saying until you get a QB as good as Brady, you keep cutting QBs.  

 

The reality is that in coaches, just like in QBs, you're trying to get a top 10 guy.  A top-10 coach, a top-10 quarterback.  

 

Yes, the unfortunate reality is that in you're in the AFC east, you have to deal with Belichick twice a year.   That shouldn't change how you evaluate your coach.  

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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

The NFL is a collection of 32 business owners, and it's only about wins in the way each owner decides it's about wins.   Jerry Jones has stuck with Howdy Doody down there longer than I would have thought possible, and no one is about wins more than Jerry Jones. 

 

What I'm saying is McBeane have a process, and they've sold the Pegulas on the process.  All four of them understand what 2019 success means in terms of the process, and I don't believe that the 2019 measure of success is some number of wins.  It's measurable progress on dozens and dozens of objectives.   They can make that progress and still not win 8 games, and if that happens, I think the Pegulas are in for another year.  

 

Simply put, under the process, won-loss record in 2019 is not a primary objective. 

Sorry but that is a ridiculous statement. If they go 6-10 again and miss the playoffs how could it be progress?

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7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

In your world.   

 

When you buy a team, that's the way you can run it.  

 

It was completely clear to me, if not you, that McDermott had AT LEAST three years the day he was hired.   And once he got to the playoffs, it was quite likely that three became four.  

I know that 3-point masterpiece needs to be put in a keepsake for all eternity. 

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Radar said:

The three guaranteed I agree with. Playoffs getting a fourth? Not sure about that.

Do you mean you agree that's what happened or you agree that was the right thing to do?

 

Whether it was right or not, I'm saying the Pegulas pretty much committed to McDermott for three years and I'm guessing that they jpretty much extended that commitment when the Bills made the playoffs.   Not sure it was the right thing to do, but I think that's what happened.   Nothing in writing, of course.   

 

I think that happened because making the playoffs took a tremendous amount of pressure off the Pegulas in Buffalo.  Life would be hell right now if the Bengals hadn't pulled off that miracle.  Anybody who works for me and does me that big of a favor has built up a lot of good will.  

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1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

Do you mean you agree that's what happened or you agree that was the right thing to do?

 

Whether it was right or not, I'm saying the Pegulas pretty much committed to McDermott for three years and I'm guessing that they pretty much extended that commitment when the Bills made the playoffs.   Not sure it was the right thing to do, but I think that's what happened.   Nothing in writing, of course.   

 

I think that happened because making the playoffs took a tremendous amount of pressure off the Pegulas in Buffalo.  Life would be hell right now if the Bengals hadn't pulled off that miracle.  Anybody who works for me and does me that big of a favor has built up a lot of good will.  

Not when you followup 9-7 with a 6-10 snoozer. 

 

Selling the same old story of hope, continuity and "progress"

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3 minutes ago, nucci said:

If they go 6-10 again and miss the playoffs how could it be progress?

Easy.

 

First, Allen finishes the season in the top 15 in passer rating.  Fitzpatrick and Rodgers did that last season and had 6 wins, so it's certainly possible.

 

Second, defense ranks in the top 10.

 

Third, have a few key injuries at the wrong time.

 

Fourth, lose a game on a bad call.

 

Fifth, play a really tough schedule - like the Browns get good, and the Jets do, along with the Pats. 

 

Like I've said, I think if they only win 6, there are some serious questions to be asked, and maybe the conclusion is the process isn't working or isn't being led by the right people.   

 

But if they're a legitimate 7-9 team, which means they're also a legitimate 9-7 team (because there's essentially no difference, and a ref blows a call to make the Bills 6-10, I don't think McBeane are at risk.   

 

Now, if I'm the Pegulas and ALL they are in 2019 is a legitimate 7-9, I may stick with them and with the process, but that doesn't mean I'm happy.  If they finish 7-9, I think McBeane are on notice for 2020 - win or be gone.  But I certainly can see scenarios where they are 6-10 this year and McBeane are back.  

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2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Easy.

 

First, Allen finishes the season in the top 15 in passer rating.  Fitzpatrick and Rodgers did that last season and had 6 wins, so it's certainly possible.

 

Second, defense ranks in the top 10.

 

Third, have a few key injuries at the wrong time.

 

Fourth, lose a game on a bad call.

 

Fifth, play a really tough schedule - like the Browns get good, and the Jets do, along with the Pats. 

 

Like I've said, I think if they only win 6, there are some serious questions to be asked, and maybe the conclusion is the process isn't working or isn't being led by the right people.   

 

But if they're a legitimate 7-9 team, which means they're also a legitimate 9-7 team (because there's essentially no difference, and a ref blows a call to make the Bills 6-10, I don't think McBeane are at risk.   

 

Now, if I'm the Pegulas and ALL they are in 2019 is a legitimate 7-9, I may stick with them and with the process, but that doesn't mean I'm happy.  If they finish 7-9, I think McBeane are on notice for 2020 - win or be gone.  But I certainly can see scenarios where they are 6-10 this year and McBeane are back.  

ok, sorry then. I misunderstood but this makes more sense

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39 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

Yes and no.  I understand what you are saying. I think if they go 5-11, there will be a problem.  Even if the 11 games are all lost by a field goal. 

 

I think this year needs to be a wild card race team up through the final weeks. If they miss, okay. But it should be close. 

 

After next season, we should looking for double digit wins. 

 

It’s not about a specific number, but the numbers usually indicate quality.  9-10 win seasons are wild card.  11+ wins are division winners.  

 

But again, I get what you’re saying too. 

 

 

I will take it further...........the entirety of the work in 2019.........week-in-and-week-out..........will decide whether the regime continues.

 

And that's no inside info..........that's just how it ALWAYS ACTUALLY PLAYS OUT.

 

Rex didn't get fired because he was 7-9..........they were a Carpenter missed field goal in OT of week 16 against Miami of being 8-7 with a favorable matchup in week 16 against the Jets.

 

It was the best offense we'd seen in Buffalo in 25 years........despite Sammy Watkins missing much of the year.

 

But even if they got to 9-7 Rex was on the hotseat.

 

Rex was fired because the owner and GM lost confidence in him...........two years in a row there were several games where it was clear they weren't prepared well.

 

McD has plenty of blemishes on his record...........the worst Bills HC against Belichick...........numerous embarrassing blowouts(7 or 8 in two years!)...........the Peterman embarrassments/fiasco's that made the organization a national joke.

 

As the body of work expands those kind of failures need to stop and a week-to-week consistently high quality, competitive product needs to be put on the field.

 

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