McBeane's Moves Now Are For 2020 Success

[Shaw66]

8 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

1. Yes, it is a good point.

 

2. Which ones? LAC? They still went from 5-11, changed their HC, and managed to be in the AFC title game in 2 years. Rivers hadn't done anything since Schottenheimer, but for the first time in a decade now he is. Every one of those teams were so bad they needed a new HC and 4 had new GMs.   

 

3. That's too late. Rebuilding, as evidenced by these 7 examples, doesn't need to take 4 years.  And it's not like McDermott entered OBD without any talent. He had plenty, some of which they allowed to hit UFA (Gilmore, Woods, Z. Brown) some traded away (Watkins, Darby, Glenn) some that retired (Incognito, Wood, K. Williams) and some still there (McCoy, Hughes, Alexander) 

 

As has been noted by other solid posters, McBeane shot themselves in the foot trying to do a complete renovation when something less intrusive would have worked.    

 

But let's look at it from another standpoint. Does anyone honestly think McCoach or Beane told previous UFAs signed or will tell prospective ones this off-season that their plan means not competing for a title until 2020?  How do you think that'd go over?   Think an in-demand UFA would want to hear that?  

 

This 2020 thing is fans being afraid to raise the bar, you know, like most teams' fans do. 

 

1.  I'[m glad you agree.

 

2.  I'm not going to go back and look (I looked yesterday), but Seattle for one had several strong seasons, two bad ones and Carroll came in.  Chargers WEREN'T one, except they had their QB in place.   I think the Vikings had a solid core in place and had had a few good seasons followed by one or two bad ones.  Kansas City has been an odd franchise for about 10 years - they've always had a good collection of players, some good years followed by one or two bad ones followed by good ones.  Point being, I don't think all of these teams you listed were actually full-blown rebuilds, which is what the Bills are doing.  But I'm not really arguing the point, because even if your list has a few teams that aren't really good examples, it has several teams that ARE.

 

3.   But this is the important point that you're missing.   I mean, you may be right, and the if you aren't succeeding by the end of year three, you're failing as a coach.   However, I don't think McBeane would agree with you, I don't think they agreed with you when they started this job, and I think the Pegulas agree with them, not you.   

 

I haven't said it before, but here's why I think McBeane are doing something different and why your examples aren't pertinent:  There is something that goes along with your  "win in three years or you're done" approach.  It's sort of the typical NFL approach.  What goes along with the typical approach is that you're on a roller coaster - be good for a few years, fall, rebuild, be good, etc.   McBeane have said from the beginning (without naming them) that they want to be like the Patriots.   They want to build something that is good year after year after year.   The Steelers are the other example.   They want to be in the mix every year, they want to be over .500 every year.   They're argument is that there is a right way to build that kind of program, and the right way is piece by piece, building the right foundation first and then growing from there. 

 

Now, as usual, I'm not saying this is right or wrong.   Your view of this could very well be right and it IS the NFL norm.   What I'm saying is that this is what McBeane are doing, and it is the program that, at least for now, the Pegulas have bought.   

 

We've seen what that means.   The foundation is the most important thing - the team, the entire organization - has to run on the right principles.  Those are commitment to one another, intense competitive drive, honesty, continuous improvement.  If you don't operate on those principles, you have to go.  If you do, you can stay so long as you continue to improve and no one comes along with same values who also is better at doing what you're supposed to do.   It means mistakes are okay, so long as you learn from them, don't make that mistake again, and get better at your job.   So, for example, McD screwing up the Peterman situation is okay - he's a rookie coach, he's learning, etc. and so long as he internalizes the right lessons from the mistake, a Peterman screw up doesn't mean he gets fired. 

 

In order to run a system like that, the first step is to evaluate what you have, throw out the people who don't fit, start teaching the ones who do fit how to behave in the system.   That process took place in years one and two.   All of the hold overs who don't fit are now gone.

 

The thing about a system like this is that it is NOT immediately concerned about bringing in talent.   It's concerned about bringing in people who work in the system.   You can see that in the fact that the Bills did NOT go out and acquire free agent talent like Woods and Watkins - they let that talent go.  Why?   Because, as Beane as said, talent is secondary to the right values.   So rebuilding this way necessarily is slower, because ON THE FIELD you don't get immediate results.  You don't have a Watkins or a Woods to make plays for you.   So the Rams turn around fast and the Bills don't, because talent on the field has immediate impacts.   

 

What McBeane are trying to do is build an environment where everyone operates on the values they think are important.   When they have that environment, each new player who comes in learns to behave the same way more easily, because everyone in the building is doing it.   I think McBeane would tell you that once they have that culture built, a guy who comes in with talent like Watkins will have a completely different career, because the first things he learns when he comes in are the team values.  He sees them all over the place.  

 

As someone once said, it's a process.  They have a process, everyone in the building, including the owners, understand and buy into the process.  If McBeane are correct in what they're doing the Bills may take longer than others to get good, but they will STAY good longer.   If they're wrong, they'll be gone.  But the owners understand that this process takes longer to find out if they're right or wrong than the "flip the talent and see what happens" approach. 

Edited February 19, 2019 by Shaw66

[eball]

9 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

3. That's too late. Rebuilding, as evidenced by these 7 examples, doesn't need to take 4 years.  And it's not like McDermott entered OBD without any talent. He had plenty, some of which they allowed to hit UFA (Gilmore, Woods, Z. Brown) some traded away (Watkins, Darby, Glenn) some that retired (Incognito, Wood, K. Williams) and some still there (McCoy, Hughes, Alexander) 

 

As has been noted by other solid posters, McBeane shot themselves in the foot trying to do a complete renovation when something less intrusive would have worked.    

 

But let's look at it from another standpoint. Does anyone honestly think McCoach or Beane told previous UFAs signed or will tell prospective ones this off-season that their plan means not competing for a title until 2020?  How do you think that'd go over?   Think an in-demand UFA would want to hear that?  

 

This 2020 thing is fans being afraid to raise the bar, you know, like most teams' fans do. 

 

 

Who, precisely, is "afraid to raise the bar?"  Have McD or Beane announced anything publicly about their "intent to compete in 2020" as you keep repeating over and over?  Of course they haven't.  You're making it up.

 

I don't know a single fan who isn't expecting a significant step forward in 2019, which would not put the Bills "behind" any rebuilding efforts of the past.

 

Truthfully, I don't even know the purpose of you arguing this point because nobody officially associated with the Buffalo Bills has said or even implied they don't intend to compete until 2020.  You're criticizing them for something they haven't done.

 

I mean, criticize some of their personnel/coaching decisions all you like -- there are certainly a number to choose from -- but I guarantee you McD and Beane didn't tell the Pegulas they wouldn't be ready to compete until 2020.  They expect a big step this year (as they should).

[BillsVet]

22 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 As someone once said, it's a process.  They have a process, everyone in the building, including the owners, understand and buy into the process.  If McBeane are correct in what they're doing the Bills may take longer than others to get good, but they will STAY good longer.   If they're wrong, they'll be gone.  But the owners understand that this process takes longer to find out if they're right or wrong than the "flip the talent and see what happens" approach. 

 

I'm not going to change your mind no matter how much evidence is provided and that's cool. Still, you're quibbling about the nature of those other rebuilds because the Bills' so far isn't nearly as fast as those were.  I

 

The Pegula's typically give their people all the resources they ask for, but aren't going to stand by if things don't go well. Any owner worth their salt is going to question why their team isn't winning when other teams can do it after starting over.

 

The plan has been flawed from the start and I sense a lot of fans are coming to terms with this, hence the 2020 narrative being floated. 

[BillsVet]

8 minutes ago, eball said:

Who, precisely, is "afraid to raise the bar?"  Have McD or Beane announced anything publicly about their "intent to compete in 2020" as you keep repeating over and over?  Of course they haven't.  You're making it up.

 

I don't know a single fan who isn't expecting a significant step forward in 2019, which would not put the Bills "behind" any rebuilding efforts of the past.

 

Truthfully, I don't even know the purpose of you arguing this point because nobody officially associated with the Buffalo Bills has said or even implied they don't intend to compete until 2020.  You're criticizing them for something they haven't done.

 

I mean, criticize some of their personnel/coaching decisions all you like -- there are certainly a number to choose from -- but I guarantee you McD and Beane didn't tell the Pegulas they wouldn't be ready to compete until 2020.  They expect a big step this year (as they should).

 

Someone started a thread about Beane's 2019 moves being to set them up to compete in 2020. Is that not what the thread says? Is that not what the debate is centered around?

 

This is all about some fans recognizing that despite all that 2019 cap room and their picks, it's going to be awfully tough to build a good enough offense that can score.  And, the team ain't gonna come out and say what the plan is - they never have nor do I expect it.

 

This team, no matter what they do in UFA, isn't ready to compete for a title when so many other teams have done just that by year 3. They've slow-walked their way to rebuild and now that's sinking in for some.   

[Ramza86]

As improved as the bills were to finish the year....

 

I dont expect this team to do ANYTHING relating to playoff contention until we have a line that can BLOCK. Especially run block. 

 

A QB leading the team in rushing is a joke.

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

I'm not going to change your mind no matter how much evidence is provided and that's cool. Still, you're quibbling about the nature of those other rebuilds because the Bills' so far isn't nearly as fast as those were.  I

 

The Pegula's typically give their people all the resources they ask for, but aren't going to stand by if things don't go well. Any owner worth their salt is going to question why their team isn't winning when other teams can do it after starting over.

 

The plan has been flawed from the start and I sense a lot of fans are coming to terms with this, hence the 2020 narrative being floated. 

It's not my mind that has to be changed.   I'm not a football coach, so I don't know how to build and rebuild a football team.   

 

I'm telling you what I think four people - McBeane and the Pegulas, are thinking.   I believe that's what they're thinking because that's what they're saying about what they're doing.  

 

You've now gotten to the real point.  You think their plan is flawed.   That's fine.  As I'e said, you've given some good examples of recent NFL rebuilds and shown that those rebuilds achieved results more quickly than the Bills have.  I get that, and as I've said, you may very well be correct - it may be that those examples are the only way to build successfully and the fab four in Buffalo don't know what they're doing.  

 

If I had a high degree of confidence that they were wrong, I'd be joining your chorus.   However, I've spent a lot of my football time in the past few years watching and thinking (and writing) about what Belichick does, and it looks to me like Belichick does what I described above.  He built a foundation, he keeps adding to the foundation.   Having the foundation, the work ethic, the competitiveness, the intense competitive desire, built into the locker room has allowed Belichick to sustain his team's level of excellence.  Given that McBeane appear to be attempting to build what Belichick has, I can't get upset that they didn't get it done in two years or that they may not have it done in three years.  

[eball]

10 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Someone started a thread about Beane's 2019 moves being to set them up to compete in 2020. Is that not what the thread says? Is that not what the debate is centered around?

 

This is all about some fans recognizing that despite all that 2019 cap room and their picks, it's going to be awfully tough to build a good enough offense that can score.  And, the team ain't gonna come out and say what the plan is - they never have nor do I expect it.

 

This team, no matter what they do in UFA, isn't ready to compete for a title when so many other teams have done just that by year 3. They've slow-walked their way to rebuild and now that's sinking in for some.   

 

LOL -- the guy who started the thread said too many people have high expectations for 2019!

 

Regardless, you're making a ton of assumptions.  The Bills offense over their last seven games of 2018 was a completely different animal than the one that started the season.  Why is everyone ignoring that?  If they improve the OL (how could they not?) and pick up a TE and WR in the draft what is stopping them from having a very adequate offense?

[teef]

it's still strange to me that some people's biggest concern is whether the rebuild, (or whatever you want to call it) will take 3 vs 4 years, as opposed to whether or not the rebuild will actually work.  

[eball]

6 minutes ago, teef said:

it's still strange to me that some people's biggest concern is whether the rebuild, (or whatever you want to call it) will take 3 vs 4 years, as opposed to whether or not the rebuild will actually work.  

 

Good point.  It's almost as if there's an agenda... 

 

[Mango]

12 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

It's not my mind that has to be changed.   I'm not a football coach, so I don't know how to build and rebuild a football team.   

 

I'm telling you what I think four people - McBeane and the Pegulas, are thinking.   I believe that's what they're thinking because that's what they're saying about what they're doing.  

 

You've now gotten to the real point.  You think their plan is flawed.   That's fine.  As I'e said, you've given some good examples of recent NFL rebuilds and shown that those rebuilds achieved results more quickly than the Bills have.  I get that, and as I've said, you may very well be correct - it may be that those examples are the only way to build successfully and the fab four in Buffalo don't know what they're doing.  

 

If I had a high degree of confidence that they were wrong, I'd be joining your chorus.   However, I've spent a lot of my football time in the past few years watching and thinking (and writing) about what Belichick does, and it looks to me like Belichick does what I described above.  He built a foundation, he keeps adding to the foundation.   Having the foundation, the work ethic, the competitiveness, the intense competitive desire, built into the locker room has allowed Belichick to sustain his team's level of excellence.  Given that McBeane appear to be attempting to build what Belichick has, I can't get upset that they didn't get it done in two years or that they may not have it done in three years.  

 

Do you think McDermott can outscheme every other coach on both sides of the ball? 

 

Because thats how Belichick keeps winning rings with his “foundation” based philosophy. Which is driven by the idea that EVERYBODY in the building will out-scheme, out-physical, out-film study, out-prepare every other team in the league. 

 

If you can’t out-scheme everybody, then you have to be more talented more often than not in professional sports. I don’t trust McDermott to out-scheme anybody. You rarely if ever out culture opponents regularly for wins (except in extreme scenarios like the Browns of old). Most of all, I don’t trust Beane for overall talent evaluation. 

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Do you think McDermott can outscheme every other coach on both sides of the ball? 

 

Because thats how Belichick keeps winning rings with his “foundation” based philosophy. Which is driven by the idea that EVERYBODY in the building will out-scheme, out-physical, out-film study, out-prepare every other team in the league. 

 

If you can’t out-scheme everybody, then you have to be more talented more often than not in professional sports. I don’t trust McDermott to out-scheme anybody. You rarely if ever out culture opponents regularly for wins (except in extreme scenarios like the Browns of old). Most of all, I don’t trust Beane for overall talent evaluation. 

I think that is EXACTLY the question.  I have a lot of confidence that he can build an organization. And I'm not worried about talent evaluation. He and Beane will do that well enough.  

 

I think football strategy and tactics involves some creativity that a coach either has or doesn't. I simply don't know if he has what it takes in that category.  He can hire good coordinators, I suppose.  The reality is that if McDermott builds the organization and doesn't have the strategic ability, the process will require Beane to replace McDermott.  

 

But you don't have to out scheme every other coach. When you get to the playoffs all teams have strengths and weaknesses.  And the teams are generally pretty evenly matched.  And no one is going to outscheme Belichick. 

 

Bottom  line for me is that I think McDermott's process can get the Bills to the playoffs.  We will see what happens when they get there.  )