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McBeane's Moves Now Are For 2020 Success


Inigo Montoya

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1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

I remain fascinated by the $87m in cap space. When taken as a whole it sounds like quite a pile, but when people on here start tossing around free agent salary expectations it quickly evaporates into just a couple of under performing castaway veterans.

 

The question then is a simple one: How many new proven veteran starters do you get with $87m? If you can answer that you’ll be able to better assess the 2019 Bills.

2 guys and the rest will be guys like Long.  They will probably send 40 mil into next year.

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Keep kicking the van down the road. Typical.

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Let's just give these guys 10 years to figure things out. 

 

While teams like the Bears and Rams turn their seasons around in one year, Bills will catch everyone by surprise in year 8 of this regimes tenure.??

This is the case with both teams in this town. I constantly ask...when are they actually going to try to win? Every year is some bogus storyline about how they are in the midst of a rebuild and they aren’t ready quite yet. For the Sabres it’s about the 12th year of that.

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I'm going to respectfully disagree with you. Playoffs should be an expectation this year.

 

Take a look around the NFL at teams that have drafted QB's in the last few years. The blueprint is to make the playoffs in your young QB's 2nd season (note that the Rams, Bears, and Texans were all awful for their young QB's rookie season). They turned it around in the 2nd season to become legit contenders. 

 

Rams - Made the playoffs in Goff's 2nd season. Made SB in his 3rd season

Bears - Made the playoffs in Trubisky's 2nd season.

Chiefs - Made the playoffs in Mahome's 2nd season. 

Texans - Made the playoffs in Watson's 2nd season. 

Eagles - Won the SB in Wentz's 2nd season (although he was hurt) 

 

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The best franchises establish top-tier, consistent coaching. Then they draft the players that they think fit, extend the guys that do in fact fit correctly and live up to expectation, let go of the ones that don’t or become unaffordable, and sign “good” free agents who can play and jump in immediately without breaking the bank. I think most franchises at least TRY to follow this method, and if they don’t it’s because of emotions, desperation, or some kind of pressure to “win now!”

 

What I like about the current leadership is that they seem mentally strong enough to follow through with their plans, without bending to some deconstructive outside pressure. It seems like they have a good cohesive vision as well.

 

With that in mind, I don’t think there is a target date to compete. I think the target is to establish the correct culture and system in Buffalo, the results will follow for many years if they’re successful. I would guess that the Bills won’t be on fire next season, but hopefully they show something for the future and are fun to watch.

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11 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Hey Success,

 

I'm hoping for 9 wins this season, 10 would be miraculous. That would put us in the Wild Card hunt.   I still don't know if it would be enough to catch New England.  The Pats will probably come out of the division at 5-1 (that's based on us stealing one from them).   Even If we do split with New England and they are 5-1 in the division, they only have to be one game over .500 for the remainder of their schedule to get to 11 wins.  I just don't see 11 wins for us this season.

 

I hope you're right and I'm wrong. 

 

  

  I'm thinking 9-10 wins for the season is very possible and the playoffs are 60/40 against making it.  I think that the division winners will be NE, Pittsburgh, Indy, and the Chiefs.  Chargers and Browns (that's right, the Browns) for the Wild Card.  Buffalo, Houston, and one other team just missing in the last 2 weeks.  Pittsburgh pulls another rabbit out of their hat winning the division despite the offseason drama preceding camp.

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They wont see 2020 with the Bill's if they dont vastly improve over last season. Will the excuse be that 2020 will be another development year all part of their plan next offseason too?

 

You cant sray out rebuilds in today's sports leagues. Theres til migh money to be lost if you throw away multiple years to "rebuild"

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12 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Good morning BADOLBILZ   ?

 

I'm not dismissing any mistakes.  They certainly made some.  Every GM and coach make mistakes, especially first time GMs and coaches, but I'm not ignoring their good moves either.  On the whole, I think they have been doing a pretty good job with the hand they were dealt . 

 

Beane wheeled and dealed to accumulate the draft stock to go and get Allen last year, someone who has the potential to be a franchise QB.  So far that is looking like a good move. 

 

As for free agency, I don't know what you expected Beane to do in free agency last year with the worst dead cap space situation in the league that he inherited.  I liked Beane's approach to just rip the bandaid off and take his lumps in one year of cap space hell instead of paying the debt down over several seasons.  It has resulted in a robust $87 MM in cap space this year.  Looks like a solid GM move to me.

 

I'm hopeful the team takes a step forward this year too.  I guess I disagree with you that I am willing to accept another year of mediocrity if it tees us up for a run in 2020.  I think I have a longer timeline that you do on this one, that's all.  Our roster and our cap situation, hell everything about this franchise has been a dumpster fire for such a long time, I think it's just going to take a bit longer to get it turned around.  So far, McBeane has earned some good will from me and I'm willing to give them some time. 

 

The off season seems sooo long, I am already anxious for kickoff.  One good thing about the off season this year is that I'm only two hours from Nashville and my son and I will be there for the draft this year representing TBD.  If the camera pans on a Bills fan with a Steve Tasker jersey on who looks just like Matthew McConaughey, except for being bald, a little more fat, and way more ugly,  that's me!  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oh I think that based on the personnel alone.........it's easier to project success for this team 2-3 years down the road than it is this year.

 

I mean aside from Shaq all of the draft picks left on this roster were made by McDermott and or Beane.

 

That is the core of talent.

 

And peak of performance expected in a players career is generally around second-contract time.........so when White and Dawkins and Milano and Allen and Edmunds are all near walk years you can probably expect their best production.

 

But in the meantime this isn't occurring in a vacuum.............sh*t happens when a coach doesn't win.

 

For the sake of "the process".........which involves the players having faith in the HC's ability to out-coach the guy on the other sideline on a regular basis.......... McD needs to get off the mat this year and prove himself a difference maker.

 

Nobody in the league buys into 4-5 year plans any longer..........2 is enough........3 is plenty........4 is "this probably ain't the guy".

 

And as I said.........McD absolutely has to start being competitive in Patriots games..........he's somehow been less competitive than any of the prior HC's since Belichick arrived in NE.

 

The upside here is that should McD fail at this........but Allen pans out and a good base of talent and effort players is in place.........perhaps a coach who can actually finish the job would be interested in the job this time.

 

 

 

Edited by BADOLBILZ
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I think making the playoffs with Josh Allen would be a massive success, especially if Allen looks good. I don't think anyone is expecting a SB run after last season. The moves this offseason will be for 2019 and 2020 success. 

 

The point is there is no more tanking moves (trading stars, getting rid of QBs, etc). 2019 needs to show real progress towards building a contender behind Josh Allen. 

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4 minutes ago, jletha said:

I think making the playoffs with Josh Allen would be a massive success, especially if Allen looks good. I don't think anyone is expecting a SB run after last season. The moves this offseason will be for 2019 and 2020 success. 

 

The point is there is no more tanking moves (trading stars, getting rid of QBs, etc). 2019 needs to show real progress towards building a contender behind Josh Allen. 

This is how I feel as well. I have a great deal of confidence in the regime after a sterling draft and the overall upward trend toward the end of 2018, but I'm going to be extremely disappointed if there's not SERIOUS progress in 2019. This is all theoretical as I expect them to do just that. Just can't totally agree with the OP that 2019 isn't something of a show me year.

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3 hours ago, BillsSB2020 said:

This is how I feel as well. I have a great deal of confidence in the regime after a sterling draft and the overall upward trend toward the end of 2018, but I'm going to be extremely disappointed if there's not SERIOUS progress in 2019. This is all theoretical as I expect them to do just that. Just can't totally agree with the OP that 2019 isn't something of a show me year.

Exactly. It doesn’t have to be SB or bust but it is 9-10 wins and competitivness or bust. 

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19 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I think a lot of people on this board are getting too far over their skis with their expectations for the Bills this season.  I think we can be in the mix for a Wild Card at the end of the season but we are not going to be making a playoff run this year.  McBeane knows that.  McBeane is still working on setting the table this year.  He is not building a roster in this year's free agency and draft to win in 2019, he is looking at least one more year down the road.

 

That's why I'd be surprised if McBeane goes TE shopping in free agency this year.  This is one of the deepest TE drafts ever and we have boatloads of picks.  Why burn a big chunk of cash on a middle of the road free agent TE when you can get a good one on a rookie contract and let him develop on a team friendly deal for the next four years?  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bills grab two TEs in the draft this year with Clay being released.  I do hope he goes after O-linemen aggressively in free agency this year.  Talented "Hog Mollies" are really hard to find and need some time playing together to really gel and become a solid unit. 

 

Realistically, years 3/4/5 of Josh Allen's rookie contract are when we will have a team ready to start making deep playoff runs.  That is not this season.  If Allen continues to develop this year he will be ready to roll and we should have a roster built of young and talented 2nd , 3rd , and 4th year players with a few key veterans on each side of the ball ready to take that step along with Allen.  

 

I think Beane and McDermott feel like Terry and Kim have their backs and will give them the time they need to  build a roster the right way for long term success.  I'm a long suffering Bills fan just like everyone else here but I'm willing to wait one more year if it will help create a team capable of sustained excellence like in the Kelly Era.  I think that is the type of roster McBeane is trying to build. 

 

I think McBeane's offseason moves this year are designed to bear fruit in two or three years when the Bills are in their playoff window, not this year.  I think McBeane is looking at this year's free agency  and draft with a different timeline in mind compared to many here and it will color every decision McBeane makes.

 

 

I think you are largely correct, but this is a hot seat year for McBeane.  They need to show real progress this year or there are serious questions about whether their process is working.  Progress is 8, 9 or 10 wins. 7 wins, maybe.  Six wins, and the Pegulas are legitimately asking "what's going on here?"

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