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Kipers predictions for last year Round 1


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I have always stated mock drafts are TOTALLY useless.

 

For example, I give you last year...................

 

Did anyone in their right minds have the Bills trading up to draft Edmunds? It wasn't even in my thought train.

 

Wake me up on draft night.

Edited by njbuff
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34 minutes ago, njbuff said:

I have always stated mock drafts are TOTALLY useless.

 

For example, I give you last year...................

 

Did anyone in their right minds have the Bills trading up to draft Edmunds? It wasn't even in my thought train.

 

Wake me up on draft night.

 

Fans like to speculate, draft predictions is totally not my bag though 

 

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You are correct, OP. The odds of getting even half a dozen 1st round picks right are ridiculously small, but there's nothing else for NFL fans to do this time of year, so the mocks will continue.

 

And there will be that 1 in a million guy that will nail a bunch of those picks and spend the rest of the year bragging about it to his friends in his fantasy football league.

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17 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

Well, he got ONE out of 32 correct (saquon to the Gmen)

 

Interesting that he had Josh going first to the Browns and Tremaine going to daBears at 8.

 

I posted this because I forgot how ridiculously off the mark every mock is, every year without fail.   I think the only time I ever guessed right on the Bills was Dareus, and a lot of people saw that happening.

 

Kiper may be a blowhard, but he's well connected and he has a 97% fail rate. 

Right in the meaty part of the curve....

https://www.espnsa.com/2018-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-mel-kipers-picks-1-32/

 

 

Mocks. Lol

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17 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

Well, he got ONE out of 32 correct (saquon to the Gmen)

 

Interesting that he had Josh going first to the Browns and Tremaine going to daBears at 8.

 

I posted this because I forgot how ridiculously off the mark every mock is, every year without fail.   I think the only time I ever guessed right on the Bills was Dareus, and a lot of people saw that happening.

 

Kiper may be a blowhard, but he's well connected and he has a 97% fail rate. 

Right in the meaty part of the curve....

https://www.espnsa.com/2018-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-mel-kipers-picks-1-32/

 

 

 

he doesnt predict trades but wasnt far off of placement

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15 hours ago, MDH said:

Not sure why anyone cares if someone's mock is "accurate." They don't know who a team is going to take. The thing these pundits should be held accountable for is their assessment of the players.

 

They are called mocks for a reason.  You should mock anyone making or believing in them.

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15 hours ago, MDH said:

Not sure why anyone cares if someone's mock is "accurate." They don't know who a team is going to take. The thing these pundits should be held accountable for is their assessment of the players.

 

Totally agree.  For example, say Mel Kiper proclaimed that if Jimmy Clausen wasn't a successful QB within 8 years, Kiper would retire... it would be totally fair to wonder what Kiper's still doing there today, 9 years later.

 

“If Jimmy Clausen is not a successful quarterback in the NFL, I’m done. That’s it. I’m out.”

Replied McShay: “What is your time frame, Mel? When do we make that assessment?”

Kiper: “I want eight years.”

McShay: “It will only take three years, Mel. We can tell inside three years.”

Kiper: “I want eight.”

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/19/17226834/mel-kiper-jimmy-clausen-nfl-draft-bet

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6 hours ago, Just Joshin' said:

The only thing worse than taking a mock draft serious is rating a mock draft right after the draft.

And what's even worse is predicting teams records before FA and the draft take place.

How many people really think the Bills will go 5-11 or 6-10 next year when they have a full set of picks and 80 million in savings to spend on new talent this spring/summer?

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Saw that thread the other day that had Foster and Wallace as potential 1st round picks. Even if in reality, in a re-draft they were selected in the 2nd or 3rd, to go that high from being undrafted, after all the interviews, film study workouts, etc. shows me how little the scouts, front office, etc really know about who's going to be a star and who's a dud.

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1 minute ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Saw that thread the other day that had Foster and Wallace as potential 1st round picks. Even if in reality, in a re-draft they were selected in the 2nd or 3rd, to go that high from being undrafted, after all the interviews, film study workouts, etc. shows me how little the scouts, front office, etc really know about who's going to be a star and who's a dud.

 

With Foster they probably felt he was not ready to put in the work at the time and he was right.  He needed to hit bottom before he was.

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11 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Kiper is terrible at that too.  He has a long history of ripping teams who pass on guys he says they should take then takes no accountability when said player goes on to be a total bust.  He does this year after year, and it’s why he has about as much respect around the NFL as Skip Bayless.  

 

All mocks are impossible, but it’s the god complex Kiper has about himself and his opinion that make him such a blow hard.  McShay and Mayock don’t get anywhere near the same blow back, and Mayock had enough respect of his analytical abilities that he got a REAL NFL job as a GM now.

 

If Kiper was even half as good as he thinks he is at projecting players, then teams would have been offering him jobs for years.  Instead he is seen as more of a clown across the league like Skip Bayless is.

 

 

The idea that teams would run around offering jobs to good mockers is ridiculous. Picking good players for one particular team (scouts / personnel guys) taking into account what the coach tells you he needs and what you learn from interviewing and private workouts and doing all that while fitting into a little bureaucracy/hierarchy/mechanism/structure is a different skill from what mockers do, which is attempt with no mathematical chance of being correct the matches between teams and players.

 

Will Mayock be good? I have no idea, but it's the Raiders. A lot of questions remain. And comparing Mayock and Kiper ignores the massive differences between them. Mayock is an insider compared to Kiper. He's worked for NFL films and the NFL Network, he played, and he's smooth and personable. Kiper is an outsider. Why would anyone think a guy like him would do well in a bureaucracy or a hierarchy? What did Mayock say at his intro PC? "I've been in all 32 buildings for the last fifteen years. I know what it looks, I know what it smells like." Mayock is pretty much the only mock drafter who can say that, or anything like it.

 

Kiper works on evaluating players, but then matching them to teams while being entertaining. It's a different skill set.

 

As for being seen as a clown ... maybe by some fans. Seen by the FOs as part of and maybe one of the faces of an industry that's essentially annoying to the FOs, though completely necessary to football as a whole? Yeah. But Kiper is well-known as a guy with a spectacular rolodex ... well, a spectacularly contact list of FO connections. One of the four or five best in the industry.

 

Was Kiper way too overboard about what he knew, especially as a young guy? Yeah, sure. That old clip where he attacks Tobin is clearly overboard, though it was great TV. He's mellowed out considerably since then. He still stands by his opinion but doesn't attack the GMs the way he did.

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2 hours ago, Misterbluesky said:

And what's even worse is predicting teams records before FA and the draft take place.

How many people really think the Bills will go 5-11 or 6-10 next year when they have a full set of picks and 80 million in savings to spend on new talent this spring/summer?

 

 

This is fair enough, a good point, really.

 

But the bottom line is that mocks are hugely possible for a reason. And that reason is that they combat boredom in a massively boring time of year. I respect people who aren't interested yet. I read a lot of them this time of year, personally, while still being aware that we know far too little to be realistic about team needs.

 

They get me thinking.

Edited by Thurman#1
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1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

This is fair enough, a good point, really.

 

But the bottom line is that mocks are hugely possible for a reason. And that reason is that they combat boredom in a massively boring time of year. I respect people who aren't interested yet. I read a lot of them this time of year, personally, while still being aware that we know far too little to be realistic about team needs.

 

They get me thinking.

But...but...we have the AAF to watch.

Kidding,of course.

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