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Thurman#1

Gaughan: Analysis: Josh Allen Has More Short Completions for the Taking

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2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

See? This guy is never going to get this.

 

He doesn't understand that we're all interested in what people mean when they use it in discussions of football. What normal humans mean. What Terry Bradshaw means when he says it.

 

There is an immensely tiny subset of pedantic people who worry about the difference. But nobody else cares. This guy and one or two more like him will go on and on boringly about this. Nobody much will care. I'm finished. Why bother.

You always decide not to bother anymore when you're shown to be wrong.  Your ego doesn't allow you to admit it and actually learn something.  You did the same thing back on the old BBMB; when proven wrong all you can do is throw childish insults.

 

It is amazing that some here refuse to see the difference between accuracy and precision in throwing a football, when the classic definition of such is throwing darts at a dart board.  The same concepts.  For a guy to win a dart board contest he has to be both accurate AND precise.  So do QBs if they want to be great.  They have to consistently put the football right on the spot where a receiver can catch the ball, away from where a defender if on him, in a position where the receiver can not only catch the ball but where he can continue making the play.

 

Perhaps you've hear of the phrase "fitting the ball into a tight window"?  That is being not only accurate but very precise, and the greats are both.  A guy like Brees can put it on a dime every time.  Allen?  If you chart his passes, and use a definition of catch radius like I do (and I looked closely at his last 3-4 games), he's accurate.  The ball over 80% of the time was in that radius.  But he needs to be more precise, needs to put it consistently on a given spot where the receiver can make the catch and keep going.  And he needs to be better at both with the short passes, as I have said previously.

 

Now, if one wants to use a very narrow definition of accurate as, say, it has to hit a guy right between the numbers?  Then the definition of accurate and precision overlap.  But that would be defining accuracy incorrectly.  Kind of like a good old boy like Bradshaw would do.

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If you are going to use Transplants' system, how close does a throw have to get to be accurate?

 

A WR's window would be different for different guys on different routes and yadda yadda yadda. But you'd have to start with an NFL-average WR armspan. The combine shows that NFL WRs tend to fall between 70 and 80 inches, though last year the 5'8" and change Braxton Berrios came in at 68.25. Jaleel Scott was 81.25. A few TEs were also over 80. But on average that puts it at about 75 inches, which is 6 feet, 3 inches. If you dive forward you probably stretch that forward by a couple of feet forward and if you jam on the brakes and throw yourself back you probably stretch it backwards by a couple of feet.

 

So by Transplant's measure, hitting a window that's somewhere in the neighborhood of ten feet wide makes you "accurate." Drew Brees is somewhere cracking up with disbelieving laughter.

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2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Cross-reference what? The definition of accuracy? What?

 

No.  Your previous complaint about my catchable vs. uncatchable pass % for Allen and the other 2019 rookies when you said 

 

If you'd broken it down, giving totals for each game for instance, it would've been easy for someone on these boards to check a game or two and see if your per game totals were on target. But as is your method, you don't provide details - no gross numbers, no game by game breakdowns, no nothing except your percentage conclusions - making checks all but impossible.

 

Thanks for the effort. If you'd given a reasonable chance to check, I'd have done so. But you never do, though I've asked before and it wouldn't have required much extra effort. It's not surprising you're not now.

 

Which leaves no choice but to point out that as you yourself point out, you're a huge Josh Allen fan and you're disagreeing with everyone else who did the work. Their work is just more believable, as they don't much care how the tallies come out.

 

I genuinely thought you'd give it a try.  Since then, I've added Watson and Wentz Allen remains #2 out of 7 other QBs in terms of throwing passes that are catchable after you exclude throwaways.

 

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

And as for your "nope," about Tyrod, um, yep. Who was it again, who went on (and on and on and on and on and on, relentlessly, unstoppably and just about never-endingly, at least till the trade) about how Tyrod was accurate and was going to be a franchise guy? Used the word "near-elite," if I remember correctly? Oh, yeah .... that was you.

 

Tyrod?  What the hell are you bringing Tyrod up for? :blink:

 

You obsessed with him or something?

 

You write like 4 paragraphs on the original topic of accuracy, all of which I was disagreeing with and it had been talked to death in the thread I referred to right above, which was why I responded with a simple "nope."

 

Yet, you assume I'm referring to the 7 irrelevant words you throw in at the end? :doh:

 

 

 

You obsessed with Tyrod or something...?

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On 2/17/2019 at 2:48 AM, oldmanfan said:

You can google anyone of a number of sites that will tell you they are not the same.  Here's one just as an example:  https://www.mathsisfun.com/accuracy-precision.

 

 

Statistically accuracy is how close a value is to a given value, precision is how close different measured values are to each other.  They are very different, especially in lab setting (I run one, so I know) and other scientific fields.  let's say our blood pressure is really 200 systolic, but your at home pressure indicators consistently says it's 120.  Very precise, but horribly inaccurate.   Or you take ten measures that range from 180-220, but the mean is around 200.  Horribly imprecise, but pretty accurate.  Confusing accuracy and precision in medicine can get you killed.

 

Now, take it to football.  What transplantbillsfan says is actually correct, in that he has taken a measure of accuracy (i.e. catchable vs. not) and applied it not only to Allen but many other young QBs in another thread.  And he is as accurate as any.  I did the same with his last couple games. Now, if you want to define accuracy as, say, only hitting a guy right between the two numbers on his uniform, then you are using an extremely narrow interpretation of accurate, so much so that it would then equal precision, in that he has to hit a very specific spot time after time.

 

In looking at the value of accuracy vs. precision in QB play, it comes down to things like fitting a ball into a tight  window, or putting it exactly where a WR can make a play but a CB right on him can't.  That involves both great accuracy AND great precision, as the dartboard analogy above shows.  The great QBs are both accurate AND precise.  Allen is pretty accurate as transplant has shown; he needs to e more precise on his ball placement.  And to be fair, more accurate on certain throws like his short ones to the flat. 

 

Your posting Wikipedia definitions of accuracy and precision show you have not really ever worked in a field where an understanding of them are both mandatory and critical.

 

 

 

Very well said  :thumbsup:

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Did someone hijack Thurm's account?

 

Doesn't sound like the usually thoughtful--albeit occasionally acerbic and sarcastic--poster I've come to know and love over the years.

 

Mother time is giving out a beating, perhaps?

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5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

If you are going to use Transplants' system, how close does a throw have to get to be accurate?

 

A WR's window would be different for different guys on different routes and yadda yadda yadda. But you'd have to start with an NFL-average WR armspan. The combine shows that NFL WRs tend to fall between 70 and 80 inches, though last year the 5'8" and change Braxton Berrios came in at 68.25. Jaleel Scott was 81.25. A few TEs were also over 80. But on average that puts it at about 75 inches, which is 6 feet, 3 inches. If you dive forward you probably stretch that forward by a couple of feet forward and if you jam on the brakes and throw yourself back you probably stretch it backwards by a couple of feet.

 

So by Transplant's measure, hitting a window that's somewhere in the neighborhood of ten feet wide makes you "accurate." Drew Brees is somewhere cracking up with disbelieving laughter.

 

Now you're just being obstinate.

 

The way I determined catchable vs. uncatchable was by watching the play and seeing if the ball hits or could reasonably hit the palm of one of the WR's outstretched hands.  If it could, I labelled it catchable because you see guys make one-handed catches all the time.  If a guy doesn't turn his head for the pass and therefore doesn't stretch his hands out or if he falls while the ball is mid-air, then I admittedly had to make judgment calls, which is part of the reason I was hoping extreme skeptics like you would give this a try.

 

If the ball, instead, hits a WR's outstretched fingertips, it was labelled uncatchable.

 

 

There were judgment calls on my part, for sure, but a lot fewer than you'd think and those judgment calls are usually relatively easy to make.

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