Gaughan: Analysis: Josh Allen Has More Short Completions for the Taking

[teef]

9 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

The argument about the terms “accuracy” and “precision” reminds me of the debate as to whether the Bills gave up 2 first round picks for Sammy Watkins.

This is excellent. 

[Mark Long Beach]

For the masses, they mean the same thing.  

 

For people who analyze data to extract meaning they represent different concepts.

 

The point of the data analysts is to say that the answer isn't the cut-and-dried "he's inaccurate" because his completion % is low.   He's not spraying the ball all over the place, but it's all of the other factors that go into completion % that heavily influence why his % is so low more than the ability to throw the ball to a specific spot.   

 

The generalists are only looking at the bottom line.   His % is low, and it has been for him historically.  Therefore he is inaccurate. full stop.

 

As someone who has managed data professionally, I relate more to the analysts.  To me, I see that there's a lot of reasons that add up to low %.  Because my eyes show me a generally accurate QB with some fantastic passes, I have hope that future Allen will get better.  As people have pointed out in this thread, because he's throwing low quantity of throws,  only 2-3 more catches per game will cause a huge jump in his %.   Just learning how to checkdown to his RB alone could reach those couple catches per game.    I watched time and time again that he'd use his magic escape powers and run around looking for a downfield play.   Time and time again checkdowns to his RB were available, but he'd rather escape looking downfield.  (God I love that he looks downfield)

 

I felt TT was inaccurate.  He was safe and only threw to truly open receivers.  But consistently the ball was all over the map and prevented Run-After-Catch yards.    

 

I initially was very disappointed with the draft pick of Josh Allen because I only saw the bottom line.  But as I looked at the details, and eventually got to watch him QB my Bills, I am THRILLED he's my QB and I have real hope that he will continue to grow into a great QB.    Is he a finished product?  No, but there sure looks like there are many "easy" opportunities to continue to get better like he did in the second half of the season.  An argument can be made that analysis of the data supports this belief even with a low completion %.

[YoloinOhio]

?

 

https://twitter.com/pff/status/1114245327845036033?s=21

The NFL leaders in passing grade to each direction of the field, on short passes (0-9 yards) in 2018.

[JESSEFEFFER]

On 2/11/2019 at 7:57 AM, Ramza86 said:

Learning to take what the defense gives will be a process for him. 

 

Ball placement within 5 yards is not a strong suit for him right now. 

  

That's what much of his running was.  I read somewhere that he averaged over 10 yards per dropback/scramble.  That's like completing 100% of his check down throws for over 10 ypc.  I doubt that any QB can come close to that.    His running was better than check down throws would have been.  I am not one of those to believe that staying in the pocket is the safest option.  At least not until they protect him better.

 

Kiko Alonso and Anthony Barr would be in favor of more check down throws too, I bet.

[GimmeSomeProcess]

8 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

  

That's what much of his running was.  I read somewhere that he averaged over 10 yards per dropback/scramble.  That's like completing 100% of his check down throws for over 10 ypc.  I doubt that any QB can come close to that.    His running was better than check down throws would have been.  I am not one of those to believe that staying in the pocket is the safest option.  At least not until they protect him better.

 

Kiko Alonso and Anthony Barr would be in favor of more check down throws too, I bet.

Couldn’t agree more 

[GreggTX]

Excellent article! I seriously hope that a change in mechanics can improve Josh's accuracy substantially. If so, look out. I'll believe it when I see it, but I am definitely hoping for it to happen. Is David Lee available?

Edited April 8, 2019 by GreggTX

[DieHardBillsFan]

I would like for this article to consider how many yards were needed to get a 1st down or completions on 3rd and long. There were a ton of drops last year which ended up requiring Josh to throw longer passes to gain a 1st down. The Oline wasn't allowing any kind of a run game either. I think if 1st and 2nd down plays are more successful this year (which I expect) then he will be MUCH more efficient and take shorter throws more often.