D'haquille aka Duke Williams, Bills' newest WR better than any draft prospect

[folz]

21 hours ago, Turk71 said:

Camp body at this point,  big, slow, unathletic, poor blocker. Good hands and high points the ball, unfortunately at 6'2" with only a 30" vertical leap his high point is lower than most. I hope he surprises me and exceeds expectations but people thinking the Bills have found their #1 and together with Jones and Foster, Josh Allen now has the weapons he needs is just laughable imo. The Bills still need to bring in a veteran in fa and draft one in the first 3 rnds. 

 

Just curious, did you watch the video of his CFL highlights that the OP posted? In that video, he definitely did not look slow or unathletic to me at all. Are you basing the bolded statement on just his combine numbers/draft reports or have you actually watched him play or something? I'm admittedly just going on a handful of videos and what little I've read about him. 

 

But, I do agree with you that we can hope he develops into a nice #1 or #2 receiver, but the Bills should definitely not count on it by any means.

 

 

16 hours ago, Turk71 said:

The only way to stay up in the air longer is to jump higher. Gravity works the same on everyone. His vertical leap was only 30 inches so there are a lot of pros who will jump higher and stay in the air longer than him. For comparison there were numerous guys over 300 lbs at last year's combine who jumped higher than him including Harrison Phillips, so I don't think he will 'hanging' in the air longer than NFL cbs and safeties.

    I think he uses his body well to win contested catches and that is his biggest strength. Whether he can do that against NFL competition remains to be seen. I am not against the signing, just not expecting as much as some others and hope to be pleasantly surprised if and when he becomes a good NFL player.

 

I beg to differ, the best vertical jumper in the world does not stay airborne longer than say a long jumper or a high jumper, because he goes straight up and down while the other two go out, or up and over (with a running start), which extends their time in the air. Who is in the air longer, Michael Jordan jumping straight up and down, or MJ getting a running start and launching himself from the foul line, tongue hanging out, towards the basket for a dunk? In football, rarely do you ever just jump straight up and down without any momentum in a particular direction or slight angle of your body to the ground. So, having the best vertical jump doesn't necessarily mean that you can hang in the air longer or that you have the body skills to high point a football on a dead run and adjust your body in the air to make the catch. If it did, we could just move Harrison Phillips to wide out then. And its the same for forty times. They can give you a general idea, a general range, but they can't measure a player's game speed, which for some players could be at the top of that general range and for others it could be near the bottom.

 

But, maybe I just wasn't accurate in how I described what I was talking about. It's that he seems to jump earlier than the CBs and then kind of extends his body and glides with his momentum, so by the time the CBs jump, he's already in position to catch the ball. To see what I mean, watch his receptions in the CFL video at :00, :53, 2:12, 2:31, and 3:44. I just found that interesting/ a bit unique.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

On 2/6/2019 at 1:56 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yup.  If anyone can find us receivers, it’s the guys who put together Jordan Matthews, Zay Jones, Jeremy Kerley, Anquan Boldin, Kelvin Benjamin, etc.

 

i kid but man have they sucked At receiver evaluations.

 

Outside of Zay, none of those guys were brought in to fix our WR situation.  Jordan was a value throw (who is solid, but got hurt here) and KB was only traded for because we were challenging late in the season for a playoff spot.  Had we not been in position to make the playoffs, that trade has zero percent chance of happening.  But there are not WRs lying around midseason that can help you get to the playoffs.  And even with KB being a bust this year and hurt a lot last year, we made the playoffs because of that trade considering he helped win us the snow game which we had to win to make the playoffs.

 

I know you said you kid, but others freak out and say they cant evaluate WR talent because of some "bodies" they mostly brought in just to field a roster.  This is the year they will focus now on rebuilding the WR group and we will then know what they can do.  

[Lurker]

1 hour ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

It has happened, though, and at the toughest position.

 

warren moon, Doug flutie.  Flutie actually better the second time around in the nfl after cutting his teeth in the cfl.

 

21 years ago for Flutie, 35 for Moon.    Those are looooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooog odds....

 

 

Edited February 8, 2019 by Lurker

[dollars 2 donuts]

37 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

21 years ago for Flutie, 35 for Moon.    Those are looooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooog odds....

 

 

 

 

It seems like yesterday.

[LSHMEAB]

49 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Outside of Zay, none of those guys were brought in to fix our WR situation.  Jordan was a value throw (who is solid, but got hurt here) and KB was only traded for because we were challenging late in the season for a playoff spot.  Had we not been in position to make the playoffs, that trade has zero percent chance of happening.  But there are not WRs lying around midseason that can help you get to the playoffs.  And even with KB being a bust this year and hurt a lot last year, we made the playoffs because of that trade considering he helped win us the snow game which we had to win to make the playoffs.

 

I know you said you kid, but others freak out and say they cant evaluate WR talent because of some "bodies" they mostly brought in just to field a roster.  This is the year they will focus now on rebuilding the WR group and we will then know what they can do.  

Zay was the only real miss, but it was a pretty big one. 

 

We'll, you'd also have to consider KB a big miss, but I kind of understand the desperate position they were in.

 

Finding an UDFA like Foster who looks to be a legitimate starting NFL WR makes up for it a bit. Like a broken record, but they have to get the skill positions right this offseason.

Edited February 8, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[dollars 2 donuts]

9 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Zay was the only real miss, but it was a pretty big one. 

 

For the record, in comparison through two years Zay (83 rec, 968 yards, 9 tds) is more than doubling up on Hall of a Famer Julian Edelman’s first two years (44 rec, 445 yards, 1 td).

Edited February 8, 2019 by dollars 2 donuts

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

For the record, in comparison through two years Zay (83 rec, 968 yards, 9 tds) is more than doubling up on Hall of a Famer Julian Edelman’s first two years (44 rec, 445 yards, 1 td).

Zay's ceiling is a number 3 WR. He simply doesn't do anything well enough to be relied upon as a primary option. Very comparable to Josh Reed.

[Augie]

6 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

For the record, in comparison through two years Zay (83 rec, 968 yards, 9 tds) is more than doubling up on Hall of a Famer Julian Edelman’s first two years (44 rec, 445 yards, 1 td).

 

Just imagine what Zay will do when he moves to New England!!! First ballot, baby! 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

29 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Zay's ceiling is a number 3 WR. He simply doesn't do anything well enough to be relied upon as a primary option. Very comparable to Josh Reed.

 

 

Zay made significant strides last year.

 

With the experience he gained with Allen I think most just assume he's a big part of the plan for 2019 but I won't be surprised if they trade him this offseason.

 

The offense they want to run and the type of WR they prefer has changed drastically since he was drafted.

 

You mention Josh Reed...........the one trait they definitely have in common is a high susceptibility to the yips when it comes to catching the ball.

[racketmaster]

I thought it might be interesting to get a little more prospective on the talent level of top 3 JUCO prospects. Duke Williams was the #1 ranked JUCO prospect in 2014. I read that after he first signed but never gave it much thought. As this thread appeared, I thought I would look into the JUCO history to see if there was anything interesting to note and here is what I found:

Top 3 rated JUCO prospects by year as shown by 247 Sports:

2018:     Saivion Smith CB from Alabama declared early and is a 3^rd round prospect – others in class not

               out yet

2017:     Jarrett Stidham QB: 2019 mid round prospect

               Isaiah Buggs DT: 2019 2^nd round prospect

               Kendall Sheffield CB: 2019 3^rd round prospect

2016:     Jonathan Kongbo DE: Torn ACL in 10/18 and future unknown

               Charles Baldwin OT: transferred from Alabama to Kansas to Youngstown State

               Garrett Bolles OT: 2017 1^st round pick (20) by Broncos and has been a starter since

 

2015:     Jovon Robinson RB: Dismissed from Auburn program in 2016

               *Alvin Kamara RB: 3^rd round pick Saints

               Marquavius Lewis DE: UDFA spent time with Bills in 2018 before injury settlement

2014:     D’Haquille “Duke” Williams WR: UDFA Packers and CFL star signed with Bills in 1/19

               Dominick Jackson OT: UDFA with Redskins in 2016 but released without making roster

               *Tyreek Hill WR: 5^th round pick KC Chiefs

2013:     Lavon Hooks DT: UDFA with Packers and currently Steelers

               Risean Broussard DT: UDFA with Chiefs but released without making roster

               Beau Sandland TE: Drafted in the 7^th round by Carolina in 2016 and currently with Cardinals

2012:     Cordarrelle Patterson WR: Drafted 1^st round by Vikings and spent the past year with Patriots

               Gerald Bowman S: UDFA signed by Ravens in 2015 but did not make roster

               *Denico Autry DE: UDFA with Raiders in 2014 and signed 3 year 17mil contact with Colts in 2018

               (had 9 sacks in 2018)

2011:     Cornelius Carradine DE: 2^nd round pick by 49ers 2013-2017 and 2018 with Raiders

               *Sheldon Richardson DT: 1^st round pick by Jets in 2013 and currently with Vikings

               Jesse Williams DT: 5^th Round pick by Seahawks from 2013-2015

2010:     *Bruce Irvin DE: 1^st round pick Seahawks in 2012 currently with Falcons

               Wayne Dorsey DE: UDFA Raiders from 2012-2014

               *Cam Newton QB: 1st round pick Panthers

2009:     James Aviona DT: UDFA signed with Colts in 2013 but not rostered

               *Jason Pierre-Paul DE: 1^st round pick Giants now with Tampa Bay

               Hebron Fangupo DT: UDFA 2012-2015 with Texans, Seahawks, Steelers, Chiefs, Redskins

 

In reviewing the NFL success of the top 3 rated prospects, it is interesting that 7 of 21 prospects (33%) can be considered successes from 2009-2015. It’s a little too early to rate the 2016 prospects and beyond but as you can see the top 3 prospects have continued to be on NFL radars and there are likely more hits to come.

The 33% NFL success rate from the top rated JUCO prospects is pretty good and gives more credence to Williams being a potential #2 or maybe #1 wr for the Bills next year. It is interesting to see that prior to 2009, the top JUCO prospects seemed to have little to no NFL success. But since 2009, the top 3 prospects have been having NFL success at rate that would be similar to a 2^nd or 3^rd round draft pick. I’m not sure what the reason for this is, maybe the people ranking the players have gotten better or maybe there are more top level talent going the JUCO route. But whatever the reason, the top ranked JUCO players seem to be NFL caliber talents.

So the Bills essentially got the equivalent of a 2-3 round draft pick in signing Williams. And if we had used a 2^nd or 3^rd round pick on a wr in the 2019 draft the expectation would be that they become a starter for us next year. In Williams, the Bills got a talented player who is a little older and hopefully matured. Bills still need to find other wrs and tight ends to help the passing game but Williams has a realistic chance of helping in this area.

[Turk71]

3 hours ago, folz said:

 

Just curious, did you watch the video of his CFL highlights that the OP posted? In that video, he definitely did not look slow or unathletic to me at all. Are you basing the bolded statement on just his combine numbers/draft reports or have you actually watched him play or something? I'm admittedly just going on a handful of videos and what little I've read about him. 

 

But, I do agree with you that we can hope he develops into a nice #1 or #2 receiver, but the Bills should definitely not count on it by any means.

 

 

 

I beg to differ, the best vertical jumper in the world does not stay airborne longer than say a long jumper or a high jumper, because he goes straight up and down while the other two go out, or up and over (with a running start), which extends their time in the air. Who is in the air longer, Michael Jordan jumping straight up and down, or MJ getting a running start and launching himself from the foul line, tongue hanging out, towards the basket for a dunk? In football, rarely do you ever just jump straight up and down without any momentum in a particular direction or slight angle of your body to the ground. So, having the best vertical jump doesn't necessarily mean that you can hang in the air longer or that you have the body skills to high point a football on a dead run and adjust your body in the air to make the catch. If it did, we could just move Harrison Phillips to wide out then. And its the same for forty times. They can give you a general idea, a general range, but they can't measure a player's game speed, which for some players could be at the top of that general range and for others it could be near the bottom.

 

But, maybe I just wasn't accurate in how I described what I was talking about. It's that he seems to jump earlier than the CBs and then kind of extends his body and glides with his momentum, so by the time the CBs jump, he's already in position to catch the ball. To see what I mean, watch his receptions in the CFL video at :00, :53, 2:12, 2:31, and 3:44. I just found that interesting/ a bit unique.

 

 

Simply not true. Your time in the air is the same whether you jump straight up or run and jump. It is directly related to how high you jump. As soon as you leave the ground gravity is pulling you down uniformly whether you have horizontal velocity or not. Unless of course you have wings or some other way to buoy yourself, or in the case of Michael Jordan and the bionic man you have slow motion replay. Simple physics. 

A long jumper can extend his flight time by landing with a low center of gravity. Delaying the landing until his whole body is practically on the ground. 

Edited February 8, 2019 by Turk71

[eball]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

1) With the exception of the Peyton Manning Colts all of the long-term, consistent winners in the NFL in the 2000's rose from mediocrity.   Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, Seahawks........and it applies to the very current teams in LA Rams, KC and New Orleans.    Been decades since tanking paid off in the NFL. 

 

2) And fwiw.......they have 15 wins in two years under McBeane........so they are still that 7-9 team trying to patch holes..........your suspension of that reality not withstanding.

 

The key to ending the mediocrity and becoming a contender is the front office figuratively sticking that foot in the ground and making a move that turns into a league changer.

 

They had that chance when Mahomes fell into their lap............but due to chaos/organizational dysfunction.......they weren't ready for it.......and the better managed Chiefs made that big move at the Bills expense.

 

The Bills were running neck-and-neck with the Chiefs for many years.....now the Chiefs are the SB favorite going into 2019 and the Bills have the longest odds.

 

And so........we wait for that big move.........or we wait for a 4-5 year plan to come together?? 

 

Hopefully things come together sooner than later though.......because the NFL hasn't been a slow build league.

 

You are 100% wrong here.  They aren't patching holes at all.  They rebuilt the D, found and drafted their QB, and fixed the salary cap.  Is this not all true?  The very point you are trying to make in your first sentence is exactly what Beane's and McD's plan is -- build a consistent, long term winner.  They chose to break it down and build it up rather than go for quick fixes a la Whaley.  Do you dispute the excellent position the organization is in right now?

 

You keep hammering on the "they could have had Mahomes" topic.  Tell me -- when KC made that move how many around the league applauded them?  It was viewed as risky, and fortunately for them it worked out.  The Bills didn't pass on Mahomes because of "chaos/organizational dysfunction" -- they passed because McD saw a lot of things that needed to change and for whatever reason the Bills' scouting department didn't have Mahomes rated that highly.

 

We can play the "they should have drafted X" game with every team in the league.  They went and got their QB last year and that appears to have been a pretty shrewd move.

[JaCrispy]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Zay made significant strides last year.

 

With the experience he gained with Allen I think most just assume he's a big part of the plan for 2019 but I won't be surprised if they trade him this offseason.

 

The offense they want to run and the type of WR they prefer has changed drastically since he was drafted.

 

You mention Josh Reed...........the one trait they definitely have in common is a high susceptibility to the yips when it comes to catching the ball.

Trading Jones would not be wise imo...we invested multiple draft picks in him, he led the team in receptions last season, and he is still making peanuts on his rookie deal.

[colin]

given the roots of our OC, i see this guy's best shot as being a shifty YAC hard to bring down underneath guy, like nearly every WR for the PATS.

 

that (assuming dude can be it) and a useful TE would be huge to get allen to do some pre snap read quick throw damage a la brady.  the difference w allen is on play action or more aggressive plays he can extend, run, or drop a dime to anyone from anywhere.  D's know that now and try to muddle him up and take away the big play, but just making the D back off isn't enough (especially when can't run well), we also have to make some money on the quick and under neath stuff.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Zay made significant strides last year.

 

With the experience he gained with Allen I think most just assume he's a big part of the plan for 2019 but I won't be surprised if they trade him this offseason.

 

The offense they want to run and the type of WR they prefer has changed drastically since he was drafted.

 

You mention Josh Reed...........the one trait they definitely have in common is a high susceptibility to the yips when it comes to catching the ball.

 

He never took over a game, but he came close a couple of times.  He needs to really focus on improving his hands - his catch rate is 55%.  I know like, rookie QB and just generally poor QB play etc.  But he improved his blocking, played about 88% of the snaps (3rd on the team), and had moments where he really made some nice plays.  Just needs to bring some consistency, and not disappear in games. 

 

I don't know what his like ceiling is, but considering we ran 11 personnel about 60ish percent of the time - I'd like to see some improvement at the WR position.  You need more than 3 quality ones to have a rotation.  He should be able to carve out a role in the offense though. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

13 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Zay's ceiling is a number 3 WR. He simply doesn't do anything well enough to be relied upon as a primary option. Very comparable to Josh Reed.

 

I was kind of joking.

[McBean]

Well, I’m glad we can cross off WR for the draft now.

 

Onto addressing other weak spots.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, eball said:

 

You are 100% wrong here.  They aren't patching holes at all.  They rebuilt the D, found and drafted their QB, and fixed the salary cap.  Is this not all true?  The very point you are trying to make in your first sentence is exactly what Beane's and McD's plan is -- build a consistent, long term winner.  They chose to break it down and build it up rather than go for quick fixes a la Whaley.  Do you dispute the excellent position the organization is in right now?

 

You keep hammering on the "they could have had Mahomes" topic.  Tell me -- when KC made that move how many around the league applauded them?  It was viewed as risky, and fortunately for them it worked out.  The Bills didn't pass on Mahomes because of "chaos/organizational dysfunction" -- they passed because McD saw a lot of things that needed to change and for whatever reason the Bills' scouting department didn't have Mahomes rated that highly.

 

We can play the "they should have drafted X" game with every team in the league.  They went and got their QB last year and that appears to have been a pretty shrewd move.

 

 

As I said.........your perception is.......as usual.......wrong.

 

What did I tell this board two summers ago after the Watkins/Darby trades?    While the vast majority of this board was lauding McBeane for being willing to tank..............I told you that they were absolutely NOT tanking.    Learn from what I tell you, eball.

 

This was still one of the older teams in the league the past two seasons............and all those teams that I previously mentioned that rose from mediocrity did so while adding and subtracting plenty as well..........the difference being that they made big moves to get out of their rut.

 

McBeane's wasn't a full re-build and they didn't *fix* their salary cap they simply re-set it by not trying to make an immediate move to escape mediocrity in 2017.

 

Do I think they are in excellent position now?   You tell me.   The oddsmakers give the Bills the lowest odds of winning the SB.   

 

And that isn't because they expect them to go 2-14.........it's because they are confident that they won't be willing or able to make power moves.............just like they weren't in the offseason of 2017 when they punted on Mahomes and CHOSE not to pay Gilmore and Woods and dealt Watkins and Darby and Dareus.      

 

And yeah,  I know *salary cap hell* made it a necessity!........when somehow they now are looking at well over $200M in available cap space in 2019 and 2020 and nobody in-house to spend it on.    They simply chose to re-set the thing more slowly with an entirely different group of players..........where teams like the Rams or Eagles chose to make immediate, decisive moves that resulted in SB runs(even if....clutch your pearls, eebs....... their cap situations are now more challenging?).

[eball]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

As I said.........your perception is.......as usual.......wrong.

 

What did I tell this board two summers ago after the Watkins/Darby trades?    While the vast majority of this board was lauding McBeane for being willing to tank..............I told you that they were absolutely NOT tanking.    Learn from what I tell you, eball.

 

This was still one of the older teams in the league the past two seasons............and all those teams that I previously mentioned that rose from mediocrity did so while adding and subtracting plenty as well..........the difference being that they made big moves to get out of their rut.

 

McBeane's wasn't a full re-build and they didn't *fix* their salary cap they simply re-set it by not trying to make an immediate move to escape mediocrity in 2017.

 

Do I think they are in excellent position now?   You tell me.   The oddsmakers give the Bills the lowest odds of winning the SB.   

 

And that isn't because they expect them to go 2-14.........it's because they are confident that they won't be willing or able to make power moves.............just like they weren't in the offseason of 2017 when they punted on Mahomes and CHOSE not to pay Gilmore and Woods and dealt Watkins and Darby and Dareus.      

 

And yeah,  I know *salary cap hell* made it a necessity!........when somehow they now are looking at well over $200M in available cap space in 2019 and 2020 and nobody in-house to spend it on.    They simply chose to re-set the thing more slowly with an entirely different group of players..........where teams like the Rams or Eagles chose to make immediate, decisive moves that resulted in SB runs(even if....clutch your pearls, eebs....... their cap situations are now more challenging?).

 

Just because your opinion is different doesn't mean you're correct.  This was most certainly a complete rebuild -- McD and Beane were just smart enough not to announce it publicly.

 

Oddsmakers aren't predicting win totals based upon "true" evaluations of an organization -- they're basing it on past performance and gamblers' perceptions.  On that basis there is no logical reason to predict immediate success -- which is why you have to look deeper.  Top 5 defense, QB in place, lots of money and draft picks.  Stability and focus from GM and HC.  Yeah, you're right, they're stupid and don't know what they're doing.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Trading Jones would not be wise imo...we invested multiple draft picks in him, he led the team in receptions last season, and he is still making peanuts on his rookie deal.

 

 

Jones is such a complicated matter it's easy to see it going either way.

 

Remember,  he was drafted to be an outside X or Z receiver who catches everything...............and while he's found footing as a solid NFL receiver........he's proven to not be THAT guy at all.

 

If Daboll wants a more Patriot-like quicker slot guy rather than a "big slot" like Jones.........where does that leave Jones?    He isn't a big ST guy.   He doesn't just drop occasional passes........he gets the yips and you don't know how long it will last.    He's a quality NFL WR but he's got issues.  

 

I agree with those that say he was a pretty good WR for them and made a nice connection with Allen but when they are talking about adding more weapons what are they really saying?    Sounds to me like they are looking for a #1 to play X or Z opposite Robert Foster........which doesn't bode well for Jones.