Matt_In_NH Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I dont think he is the same player, his production dropped like a rock last year. Good guy, gave his all, but I would be moving on for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TroutDog Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 hour ago, Shaw66 said: I try to avoid this "for what he's making" approach. FOr a couple of reasons. First, it's really hard to know exactly what someone's value is. In theory you could figure out the value of every player on the roster relative to all the other players on the team and in the league and do some sophisticated math to figure values, but that's in theory only. More importantly, though is that what you're paying him is just a value that was put on him at the point in time when he signed. Even then, there were a lot of things that went into the determination, but whatever went into it, it's just history now. You have him on the team, and the important question is not whether he's worth it but whether he makes your team better. I suppose you can consider whether he's worth it in terms of whether you could get the same production for less money, or get better production for the same money. The answer to that question is pretty much impossible to figure out, because there aren't a lot of tight ends on the market. The rookies you can get certainly will be less money, but they are less likely, on an individual basis, to produce better than Clay, even given his meagre numbers last season. You're not likely to get a rookie with equal production who blocks better, for example. Maybe, but not likely. The Bills have Clay. Can they do better? In the short-term, maybe not. In the long term, I certainly hope so, but that will take a few years to develop someone. I understand what you’re saying but it’s a business and what a player makes should, in theory, be attached to production. I don’t see a way around it from a business standpoint. Were he to hit hit the open market he would make far less that what we’re paying him as it would be based on production: catches, yards, TD’s and blocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, TroutDog said: I understand what you’re saying but it’s a business and what a player makes should, in theory, be attached to production. I don’t see a way around it from a business standpoint. Were he to hit hit the open market he would make far less that what we’re paying him as it would be based on production: catches, yards, TD’s and blocks. I think they're two different things. Are the Bills overpaying Clay for the production he's delivering? Absolutely. He's turned out to have been a bad investment. They could have had the same production for less. Will they be overpaying him in 2019? Yes, unless he turns things around. And turning them around may only mean more time with Allen and a more effective passing attack. But whether you cut him is a different question, and it doesn't really have much to do with what you're paying him. As I understand, he's going to be a cap hit whether you keep him or cut him. So the decision turns on whether the team will be better with him or without him. That is, how good will the guy be who replaces him? If the replacement isn't any good, then you're better off keeping Clay, even though he's overpaid. Now, obviously you can't run a team effectively if you're overpaying too many people, but the Bills aren't in that situation. Clay's one of the few guys who is clearly overpaic, and every team has at least a few. .So I don't see Clay as being a problem for McBeane. THey keep him if they want him, they cut him if they don't. It doesn't have anything to do with money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Call_Of_Ktulu Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 (edited) I want 2 new TE and I guess you keep Croom as a 3rd option even though I would prefer a blocking TE for that third TE. I think Croom has questionable hands, runs horrid routes and has ball security issues. I would prefer to sign a TE in FA and draft one in the 3rd or 4th rd and release Clay and Croom. If Croom is our #1 option at TE next year people will be talking ***** about him for the whole 2019 season. Dropped passes, missed blocks and fumbles, I can't wait to enjoy that from our #1 TE next year. Edited January 29, 2019 by Call_Of_Ktulu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greatdane21 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Bills should be getting more out of the TE spot. It’s time to find someone who can gain Allen’s trust. too many drops from Clay ,plus I feel he has been playing hurt for the past two years . If cut he’s a patriot within a week and of course will come back to haunt the Bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TroutDog Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 3 hours ago, Shaw66 said: I think they're two different things. Are the Bills overpaying Clay for the production he's delivering? Absolutely. He's turned out to have been a bad investment. They could have had the same production for less. Will they be overpaying him in 2019? Yes, unless he turns things around. And turning them around may only mean more time with Allen and a more effective passing attack. But whether you cut him is a different question, and it doesn't really have much to do with what you're paying him. As I understand, he's going to be a cap hit whether you keep him or cut him. So the decision turns on whether the team will be better with him or without him. That is, how good will the guy be who replaces him? If the replacement isn't any good, then you're better off keeping Clay, even though he's overpaid. Now, obviously you can't run a team effectively if you're overpaying too many people, but the Bills aren't in that situation. Clay's one of the few guys who is clearly overpaic, and every team has at least a few. .So I don't see Clay as being a problem for McBeane. THey keep him if they want him, they cut him if they don't. It doesn't have anything to do with money. I understand what you’re saying. But I disagree on the fact of whether it’s a business decision or not: everything in the NFL is a business decision. Are there constraints at times (like inherited contracts)? Certainly. You do your best to manage those (which, I believe, they have done). He was given two years to justify his contract and, for whatever reason(s), he didn’t hold up to it. Given this, in my opinion, it’s time to move on. He is definitively not part of the long term plan so why wait any longer for what inevitably will happen? Allow someone else, who will be here long term, to gain the chemistry with Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrimeTime101 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 The one thing you DO NOT want to do this year is to create a roster opening. Next year Worry about TE. Right now we have T, G, C, WR, RB, DT, OLB, CB <<< this is quite a list and you want to add to it? No no no no.. Unless you have a FA in place that is better then him you KEEP what you got. FA to improve Draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 hour ago, TroutDog said: I understand what you’re saying. But I disagree on the fact of whether it’s a business decision or not: everything in the NFL is a business decision. Are there constraints at times (like inherited contracts)? Certainly. You do your best to manage those (which, I believe, they have done). He was given two years to justify his contract and, for whatever reason(s), he didn’t hold up to it. Given this, in my opinion, it’s time to move on. He is definitively not part of the long term plan so why wait any longer for what inevitably will happen? Allow someone else, who will be here long term, to gain the chemistry with Josh. I agree he isn't a part of the long-term plan. Definitely not. And if you can find someone in 2019 who will be better than Clay is in 2020, yeah, I agree, you get that guy and you give him the job in 2019. But what if free agency and the draft fall some other way, and the TE of the future isn't on the team in 2019? What if they draft and sign offensive linemen and defensive linemen and receivers and by the time they get to tight end, all they have is Logan and Croom and some rookies who can't beat them out? That wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, if they've strengthened a lot of other positions. If that happens, even though they're overpaying Clay, why wouldn't you want Clay to be your tight end? If he's the best player at the position, who cares how much he's getting paid? His pay and his play are two different things. The Bills can afford his pay in 2019; if he's the best they have at the position, why wouldn't you want him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logic Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 I will also say that I thought his being a healthy scratch in week 16 was telling. All things being equal, I get the feeling the Bills would like to go with youth at the position. If the Bills are going to roll the dice with an oft-injured player at tight end, I'd rather they go with Tyler Eifert. At least there is a high ceiling there if he can get past the injury bug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Logic said: I will also say that I thought his being a healthy scratch in week 16 was telling. All things being equal, I get the feeling the Bills would like to go with youth at the position. If the Bills are going to roll the dice with an oft-injured player at tight end, I'd rather they go with Tyler Eifert. At least there is a high ceiling there if he can get past the injury bug. Absolutely. But I don't think McBeane will go after a tight end with a lot of miles on him. They'll go with youth. Only exception would be if Tyler is a really high character guy and the Bills think that he can be a positive addition to the team for the next 2-3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ComradeKayAdams Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 7 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said: Clay being inactive for the last game or two was a pretty big clue. It's not uncommon that TEs are physically washed up around the age of 29-30. And yet the Hardly Boys of Two Bills Drive keep on overlooking this simple clue... Clay is as good as gone, and it has nothing to do with the $4.5 million salary cap savings. It has everything to do with the fact that there are likely only going to be 3 precious TE roster spots, and Clay isn't worth any of the 3. Croom will take one spot, someone in a very deep 2019 TE draft will take another, and a free agent who - unlike Clay - is able to stay healthy and hold on to footballs will take the third spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
artmalibu Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 When would he need to be cut by to save the 4.5 mil. If, you can cut him after pre-season and save the money why be in a hurry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Clay is small for the position. Get a big, strong TE in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 10 hours ago, MichaelAbdallah said: And yet the Hardly Boys of Two Bills Drive keep on overlooking this simple clue... Clay is as good as gone, and it has nothing to do with the $4.5 million salary cap savings. It has everything to do with the fact that there are likely only going to be 3 precious TE roster spots, and Clay isn't worth any of the 3. Croom will take one spot, someone in a very deep 2019 TE draft will take another, and a free agent who - unlike Clay - is able to stay healthy and hold on to footballs will take the third spot. I don't know if Clay is gone, but I think your analysis is largely correct. What is missing is that McBeane say they want veteran leadership in every room. That isn't Croom or a rookie, and they may not find the right free agent. They may decide that they want Clay at least for one more season. Clay has been in the system for two years and may be important to groom his replacement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 (edited) For what you are paying him he isnt worth it. There are more explosive options in FA and the draft. He has poor knees and can not handle a full week of practice. He is a body catcher and Allen's velocity makes that a liability. Edited January 30, 2019 by Mat68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: I don't know if Clay is gone, but I think your analysis is largely correct. What is missing is that McBeane say they want veteran leadership in every room. That isn't Croom or a rookie, and they may not find the right free agent. They may decide that they want Clay at least for one more season. Clay has been in the system for two years and may be important to groom his replacement. I wonder what Clay is like in the locker room. So this is one of those things that is almost impossible to track. I am big into following social media to get a feel for who hangs out with who, who's wives hang out with who, that kind of stuff. For example, Josh Allen's wife and Jerry Hughe's wife are pretty close. As is Wyatt Teller's wife. That tells me that is a group of players that are friends on and off the field. Then there is Poyer and Hyde, and the list goes on. Clay is one of those guys I never really see around on social media. It makes me wonder if he has a significant locker room presence, just because I don't often see him around other players. Now I could be wildly wrong, and all I'm doing here is speculating based on a only a little bit of information, but I can't help but wonder. All that being said, I am a huge keep Clay guy. Obviously if we have upgrades, we should cut him. But absent that, I see absolutely no reason to cut him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 minute ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: I wonder what Clay is like in the locker room. So this is one of those things that is almost impossible to track. I am big into following social media to get a feel for who hangs out with who, who's wives hang out with who, that kind of stuff. For example, Josh Allen's wife and Jerry Hughe's wife are pretty close. As is Wyatt Teller's wife. That tells me that is a group of players that are friends on and off the field. Then there is Poyer and Hyde, and the list goes on. Clay is one of those guys I never really see around on social media. It makes me wonder if he has a significant locker room presence, just because I don't often see him around other players. Now I could be wildly wrong, and all I'm doing here is speculating based on a only a little bit of information, but I can't help but wonder. All that being said, I am a huge keep Clay guy. Obviously if we have upgrades, we should cut him. But absent that, I see absolutely no reason to cut him. Its interesting that you follow that stuff. McDermott knows who is friendly with whom for sure, because he believes it's important. . These guys get graded on leadership, and you're correct that we really cant see a lot of what the coaches see. That's why I think a lot of the discussion here misses the point. If Clay is committed to the process 100%, then he is much more valuable to McD than we can know by evaluating film. I said the same thing in the thread about whether Star is overpaid. I think Kyle was the leader in the d line room and Star was brought in to succeed Kyle. We cant see that, but I'm pretty sure that's why Star is in Buffalo. And whether Clay is McBeane's ideal tight end on the field, he may be the best tight end for 2019 off the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 6th leading receiver on the team, Lower catch rate than Croom and Thomas, 0 Touchdowns. His injury history with Buffalo: 2018 - On the Injury report for 5 of 16 games. 2017 - On the injury report for 7 of 16 games 2016 - On the injury report for 14 of 16 games 2015 - On the injury report 4 of 13 games, and missed the last 3 weeks on IR. Never played 16 games in a season with buffalo, and has either missed time, or been too banged up to be effective. I'm fine with moving on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formerlyofCtown Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 On 1/29/2019 at 9:40 AM, BuffaloBillies said: Clay just needs to be off this team. Period. For his sake does. Unfortunately for him he made the mistake of comiing here. On 1/29/2019 at 10:31 AM, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: I just wish this was said over and over again. Believe it or not, fan anger is not a reason to cut a player. Clay hasn't lived up to expectations, but he is still the best TE on the roster. Cutting him does not all of a sudden mean the position is fixed. If they bring in someone better, sure, I''m all in. But right now, we don't have someone better. I think other than this past season hes been great. The man cant throw himself the ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 hour ago, formerlyofCtown said: For his sake does. Unfortunately for him he made the mistake of comiing here. I think other than this past season hes been great. The man cant throw himself the ball The dirty little secret about Clay that no one wants to acknowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts