Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
WideRightRevenge

TE Love for early picks in draft .. not me

Recommended Posts

I hear all this love from some for drafting TE's high in the draft .. and maybe that's years of the Gronk effect ... but I don't really see "game changers" at that position lately in the draft .. I just think we can wait till rounds 3-5 to address that position

 

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/te

 

For example the link above shows all the TE's drafted in the last few years .. George Kittle at SF was a 5th rounder and in my opinion he's the best of the bunch going back to 2015 ..my point is ..  ... but there aren't a lot of studs coming off their rookie pick .. hence we looking at say a Maxx Williams in FA.  But I don't really think OJ Howard, aforementoined Maxx Williams, Hayden Hurst, Mike Gisecki, Dallas Goedert, Austin Saferian Jenkins .. all early picks have been game changes ... maybe Engram . .maybe Njoku ... maybe Hunter Henry .. but look at the carnage for those few nuggets.  Stick with OL early please.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, WideRightRevenge said:

I hear all this love from some for drafting TE's high in the draft .. and maybe that's years of the Gronk effect ... but I don't really see "game changers" at that position lately in the draft .. I just think we can wait till rounds 3-5 to address that position

 

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/te

 

For example the link above shows all the TE's drafted in the last few years .. George Kittle at SF was a 5th rounder and in my opinion he's the best of the bunch going back to 2015 ..my point is ..  ... but there aren't a lot of studs coming off their rookie pick .. hence we looking at say a Maxx Williams in FA.  But I don't really think OJ Howard, aforementoined Maxx Williams, Hayden Hurst, Mike Gisecki, Dallas Goedert, Austin Saferian Jenkins .. all early picks have been game changes ... maybe Engram . .maybe Njoku ... maybe Hunter Henry .. but look at the carnage for those few nuggets.  Stick with OL early please.

At least you clarified their areguys that have proven worthy.  You have to use a lot of maybes for being so strong in your convictions.  Sometimes you hit a homerun in the draft and sometimes you dont.  Just follow your board.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

At least you clarified their areguys that have proven worthy.  You have to use a lot of maybes for being so strong in your convictions.  Sometimes you hit a homerun in the draft and sometimes you dont.  Just follow your board.

 

That is the key. I have done zilch on TEs so far.... I normally get to them late in the process so no idea what I make of this class. But there are good early ones and bad early ones. OJ Howard (who I thought was a 1st rounder but didn't have as a top 10 player the way some did) has a tick under 1,000 yards and has caught 11 touchdowns in his first two years. That is pretty decent production. Probably not quite justified his price yet but he wouldn't surprise me if he had a breakout year in 2019 and a monster season in Arians offense.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've never been huge on TE's early. The one I fell in love with and wanted in the first was Vernon Davis, but his combine numbers were otherworldly. I liked OJ howard a couple years ago, and I still think he will develop into a solid TE (last year he obviously took a step forward). I think you can get good value on day 2 for this position.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is the key. I have done zilch on TEs so far.... I normally get to them late in the process so no idea what I make of this class. But there are good early ones and bad early ones. OJ Howard (who I thought was a 1st rounder but didn't have as a top 10 player the way some did) has a tick under 1,000 yards and has caught 11 touchdowns in his first two years. That is pretty decent production. Probably not quite justified his price yet but he wouldn't surprise me if he had a breakout year in 2019 and a monster season in Arians offense.

Look who Gronk has throwing him the ball and look what he has throwing him the ball.

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Jeetz1231 said:

I've never been huge on TE's early. The one I fell in love with and wanted in the first was Vernon Davis, but his combine numbers were otherworldly. I liked OJ howard a couple years ago, and I still think he will develop into a solid TE (last year he obviously took a step forward). I think you can get good value on day 2 for this position.

 

Howard is already a solid TE. The question is does he become a true game changer TE.

  • Like (+1) 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Howard is already a solid TE. The question is does he become a true game changer TE.

If he can stay healthy. He is always nicked up or worse. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think tight ends are really difficult to project. The way tight ends are used in college is a little different these days as a lot of them really can't block. Why is it that Zach Ertz is so amazing but guys like Gavin Escobar or Troy Niklas flame out? 

 

It really is about fit in a system and how the tight end is going to be used. And talent of course. So I think a tight end in the top ten is a very risky proposition, because it really is a boom or bust pick, like Eric Ebron. However, there is a ton of value that can be found late first round, early second. 

 

With all of that said, TJ Hockenson is the real deal. Would I take him at 9? Not sure yet, but if we are going to make him a focal point of our offense, then I'd be all for it. I think you have to find the right fit and then make a concentrated effort to make the guy a main part of your offense, like KC and Philly have done with Kelce and Ertz. 

 

And BTW, the history of top ten offensive lineman over the past few years is way worse than the history of tight ends on the first two days of the draft. People continue to reach on mediocre offensive linemen, passing on elite talent. Don't do it. No elite offensive lineman in this draft. 

Edited by MrEpsYtown
  • Like (+1) 1
  • Awesome! (+1) 1
  • Thanks! (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I think tight ends are really difficult to project. The way tight ends are used in college is a little different these days as a lot of them really can't block. Why is it that Zach Ertz is so amazing but guys like Gavin Escobar or Troy Niklas flame out? 

 

It really is about fit in a system and how the tight end is going to be used. And talent of course. So I think a tight end in the top ten is a very risky proposition, because it really is a boom or bust pick, like Eric Ebron. However, there is a ton of value that can be found late first round, early second. 

 

With all of that said, TJ Hockenson is the real deal. Would I take him at 9? Not sure yet, but if we are going to make him a focal point of our offense, then I'd be all for it. I think you have to find the right fit and then make a concentrated effort to make the guy a main part of your offense, like KC and Philly have done with Kelce and Ertz. 

 

And BTW, the history of top ten offensive lineman over the past few years is way worse than the history of tight ends on the first two days of the draft. People continue to reach on mediocre offensive linemen, passing on elite talent. Don't do it. No elite offensive lineman in this draft. 

Excellent post. Hockenson is definitely the real deal. He has such a high floor because of his skill set and relentless attitude. He is one of the best blocking tight ends to come out in recent years and has been coached very well in his blocking technique. I don’t know if I would take him at 9 but if we were able to slide down a few slots and pick up and extra pick or two I’d be all in. Hockenson is a true dual threat that can help in the run game and also been a receiving threat with size, speed, hands, awareness and athleticism. He is a great blocker and everything else about him is very good. No weaknesses to his ability and brings the type of attitude this regime looks for. 

 

With the extra picks we can we can get help on the offensive line in the second and third rounds. 

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wish we had Ertz, Godert, Andrews, Kelce, Howard, and Kittle. 

 

All studs.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I highly doubt they’ll draft a TE at 9.  Trade back possibly they would then. 

Edited by CaptnCoke11

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think TE is a very difficult position to come in and make a big impact early.  The two best TEs in the league (Kelce / Ertz) did almost nothing their first year in the league and really started to come on between year 2 and 3.  OJ Howard looked great this year but had an injury that cost him a good chunk.  Hunter Henry same thing, hurt in preseason.  Engram has battled injuries.

 

If you are insistent on early impact because you are delusional enough to think this team is going to the Super Bowl next year, then yes, TE is not your position.

 

(BTW, there's a pretty extensive list of offensive line busts.  There's no "safe" position).

  • Like (+1) 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I think tight ends are really difficult to project. The way tight ends are used in college is a little different these days as a lot of them really can't block. Why is it that Zach Ertz is so amazing but guys like Gavin Escobar or Troy Niklas flame out? 

 

It really is about fit in a system and how the tight end is going to be used. And talent of course. So I think a tight end in the top ten is a very risky proposition, because it really is a boom or bust pick, like Eric Ebron. However, there is a ton of value that can be found late first round, early second. 

 

With all of that said, TJ Hockenson is the real deal. Would I take him at 9? Not sure yet, but if we are going to make him a focal point of our offense, then I'd be all for it. I think you have to find the right fit and then make a concentrated effort to make the guy a main part of your offense, like KC and Philly have done with Kelce and Ertz. 

 

And BTW, the history of top ten offensive lineman over the past few years is way worse than the history of tight ends on the first two days of the draft. People continue to reach on mediocre offensive linemen, passing on elite talent. Don't do it. No elite offensive lineman in this draft. 

Good points, see Eric Ebron as a great example who didn't do much in Detroit but excelled in Indy. If I'm the Bills I'd like to improve the TE position but not sure it be top of my list as last year's offense didn't show us going to the TE much. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Like...you got only about 4 or 5 TE in the NFL now you might feel good about paying a 1st round pick for. 

 

I think only one of them was drafted in the 1st round. 

 

Forget about being high on TEs

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From everything that I have read, the TE talent in this draft is not great or deep.  There are better free agent options that other posts have pointed out.  If best player available is the strategy for the draft (even after a trade down), TE won't be in play until the middle or later rounds.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

From everything that I have read, the TE talent in this draft is not great or deep.  There are better free agent options that other posts have pointed out.  If best player available is the strategy for the draft (even after a trade down), TE won't be in play until the middle or later rounds.

This (lack of TE talent in the 2019 draft) is contrary to what I have read so far (dont know enough to comment). See for example:

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/10/09/the-2019-nfl-draft-te-class-is-proving-its-deep-with-talent/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 2 pick if they like someone who is there..

 

Would be great if they had three Day 2 picks instead of two..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At this point, at least until we see what FA brings, it's difficult to predict what the Bills will do with the #9 pick...

 

Personally I'd prefer a 3 down OL or DL...

 

WR with the 2nd  rd pick...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

kelce, ertz and kittle drafted 2nd round, 3rd round and 5th round respectively.

 

These guys might be more of a product of their OC and QB creating plays specifically to get them the ball as the first read than pure talent.    

Look at Ebron with Andrew Luck now.   Same thing with OJ Howard, if you put that guy in the right environment he might become a game changer instead of a guy who was overdrafted.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I think tight ends are really difficult to project. The way tight ends are used in college is a little different these days as a lot of them really can't block. Why is it that Zach Ertz is so amazing but guys like Gavin Escobar or Troy Niklas flame out? 

 

It really is about fit in a system and how the tight end is going to be used. And talent of course. So I think a tight end in the top ten is a very risky proposition, because it really is a boom or bust pick, like Eric Ebron. However, there is a ton of value that can be found late first round, early second. 

 

With all of that said, TJ Hockenson is the real deal. Would I take him at 9? Not sure yet, but if we are going to make him a focal point of our offense, then I'd be all for it. I think you have to find the right fit and then make a concentrated effort to make the guy a main part of your offense, like KC and Philly have done with Kelce and Ertz. 

 

And BTW, the history of top ten offensive lineman over the past few years is way worse than the history of tight ends on the first two days of the draft. People continue to reach on mediocre offensive linemen, passing on elite talent. Don't do it. No elite offensive lineman in this draft. 

 

Admittedly I have not done a hard look at TJ .. just was referring to past top TE picks . but your comments intrigue me so will look .. that said .. guess my take comes from the fact that we have admittedly 3 maybe 4 (depending on thoughts on Teller) holes on our OL ... granted many OL draft busts like you indicate over the years ... but at the end of the day the TE is only one position and frankly needs more time than a WR on a slant pattern to get open .. so if no OL talent .. the TE may struggle to produce

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pick #9 is too high for a TE unless one of them shoots to the top of the board between now and the draft.  I still hope Bills can trade down in the first to get an extra 2 or 3.  That looks to be the area where the most value might be in this draft.  In fact, I also hope they use some of there latter draft choices to move up into the 2, 3, 4 range.  They have a lot of options this year and we know Beane is not afraid of moving up or down to get what they want.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Day 2 pick if they like someone who is there..

 

Would be great if they had three Day 2 picks instead of two..

I'm going to hope we do trade down a bit in the 1st and get an extra 2 (3 would be nice but)....if it's a trade with wash. and we get an extra 2nd...

 

our first pick in the 2nd will be a trade up to the beginning of the round for Hakeem Butler.  ( using the pick from Wash. and a 4th)

 

Our original 2nd rd. pick will be Irv Smith jr. te Alabama.  I would bet money he's on this roster next year. I think we'll start with 4 and either weed out Thomas or cut Clay.

 

Btw I would package a 5,6 and 7th or future pick to get and extra 3rd....where I take Jenkins and Ximines.

Rd. 1 Greg Little ...but if it were me , I would def. take Montez Sweat. I Between him and Ximines, we could have two great ends for the future not to mention a replacement for Lorax ( and Hughes ), with and even better pass rush capability.

( I'm hoping we can upgrade at center and rt via fa.... unless we can somehow land Trent Brown and move Dion over.)

 

Rd. 2  Hakeem Butler wr

          Irv Smith jr.  te

 

Rd. 3  Jenkins c

           Ximines  edge

 

I'd say that's a pretty realistic list. I took most of the positional rankings from cbs sports draft prospect top 50.

( I'd also like to add Isabella.)

Edited by billsredneck1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...