AlphaMock V1 - 4 round mock (pre combine)

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, STL-Bills said:

Please stop with the Harry love... 90% of the catches in his "highlight" video are either screen passes where he makes doodoo corners miss tackles, or downfield jump balls where instead of going up and getting the ball with his massive hands he lets it come down into his chest to make the catch. Catching the ball like that does not work in the NFL on a consistent basis. If we draft Harry, we will all be very disappointed.

 

Lol, 90%?  Not sure what video you are watching.  And you clearly also missed watching his QB practically under throw him on the regular because his QB sucks.  

 

So I am not convinced yet he struggles with separation.  This is where the combine will really start to shape the WR group.  If he Runs the 40 around 4.5 then I think he will be first WR taken.  

 

 

[buffaloboyinATL]

2 hours ago, STL-Bills said:

Please stop with the Harry love... 90% of the catches in his "highlight" video are either screen passes where he makes doodoo corners miss tackles, or downfield jump balls where instead of going up and getting the ball with his massive hands he lets it come down into his chest to make the catch. Catching the ball like that does not work in the NFL on a consistent basis. If we draft Harry, we will all be very disappointed.

I get your point, but isn't that better than him getting tackled behind the line of scrimmage or losing out on the 50/50 balls?  There were some great hands catches in the highlights I saw (especially that 1 handed grab!) I have been wondering why he has been so polarizing, so thank you for shedding some light on the counter-point.

[Augie]

13 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

I never understood the mock stuff. It’s like playing the lotto. The odds are so insane of any of these things going down. 

I cant get into this stuff much until at least after the combine. Not that I put much stock in the combine but that’s when things start shaping up 

 

I don’t see this as trying to “get it right” as much as it is a chance for me to learn something about these guys. I don’t follow the college game nearly as much as some others here, so it’s a chance for me to learn something from the discussions that grow out of this. If I’m not in the mood, I don’t click. 

[GoBills808]

29 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree this is an issue on his tape that shows up at times however it isn't 90% of his catches. That is hyperbole.

I just think he's not a natural catcher of the ball. Big physical wideouts can do well for themselves in college but imo you need more to justify a first round pick and body catching is kind of a bad look for a guy who isn't a particularly twitchy route runner or explosively fast. I'm not sold on Harry at all tbh, he looks like a much lesser Mike Evans to me and I don't think that's value for your first rounder. His combine numbers will be interesting. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I just think he's not a natural catcher of the ball. Big physical wideouts can do well for themselves in college but imo you need more to justify a first round pick and body catching is kind of a bad look for a guy who isn't a particularly twitchy route runner or explosively fast. I'm not sold on Harry at all tbh, he looks like a much lesser Mike Evans to me and I don't think that's value for your first rounder. His combine numbers will be interesting. 

 

I do think lesser Mike Evans - yes. Mike Evans is an elite NFL WR.... I don't think there is an elite NFL WR in this draft but there are plenty who I think can be good NFL WRs and develop into legitimate #1s. So it comes down to how much lesser. Agree the combine 40 is big for him - as it was indeed for Mike Evans who was also accused of not being fast enough and there were concerns he would run 4.6s. For a guy who isn't a natural catcher Harry sure seems to catch a lot - thought his technique can improve for sure. I wouldn't take a WR at #9. To me any of them are a reach. With a trade back? Possibly.

[P51]

13 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

There's no way a team trades mid 2nds and 3rds to move from 15 to 9.  While I'm not a firm believer in the value chart, 15 to 9 should only get a low 2nd rounder.  Giving every benefit of the doubt, they could get a mid 2nd to go up those 6 spots, but adding the 3rd is just way over the top.

 

Actually for a QB the Redskins trade from 15 to 9 is almost the exact same value as the Bills trading up from 12 to 7 last year. The premium value is virtually identical using the Johnson and Hill trade charts. I did the break down yesterday in 2 separate threads. You might not be a believer in the trade charts but they are used by NFL teams. 

 

The Skins likely have to jump Denver, Miami and possibly Cincy (if Zach Taylor wants his own QB) if they want IMO Murray or Haskins if they are available at 9, possibly... Lock. They are will have to pay a premium, the market is set and Buffalo helped set the market for this type of trade up last year. It wouldnt shock me if some team in the 10-15 range jumped higher than Buffalo to get ahead of the Giants to take their guy, there are a lot of factors in play, especially when it comes to moving up for a QB, but the constant is a premium will be paid. 

[GoBills808]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I do think lesser Mike Evans - yes. Mike Evans is an elite NFL WR.... I don't think there is an elite NFL WR in this draft but there are plenty who I think can be good NFL WRs and develop into legitimate #1s. So it comes down to how much lesser. Agree the combine 40 is big for him - as it was indeed for Mike Evans who was also accused of not being fast enough and there were concerns he would run 4.6s. For a guy who isn't a natural catcher Harry sure seems to catch a lot - thought his technique can improve for sure. I wouldn't take a WR at #9. To me any of them are a reach. With a trade back? Possibly.

Evans played big is my thing, he bounced corners off and was always coming back to passes and catching with his hands. His physical limitations didn't translate into weaknesses in his game, they were simply part of who he was as a wideout- not very fast, ran average routes due to limited quickness, but he understood how to play and make the most of his size. I don't see Harry doing that, I see the ball getting on him instead of him attacking it...his limitations physically sort of define him as a wideout in a way that Evans' didn't. I can't say for sure obviously but I don't see Harry having success in the pros unless he drastically improves his technique which is why I don't like him as a first rounder. Screams project imo.

[P51]

11 hours ago, NewEra said:

Last year the cardinals traded up about the same number of picks and only gave up a 3rd.  If we trade down 6 spots we’d be lucky to get a 2nd and 3rd.  I’d be happy with a 2nd.

 

Id be very happy with the first 3 picks although I can’t see Hockenson and Ford lasting.  I like your choice of players though 

 

The Cardinals last year played musical chairs and were the last man out. They wanted Allen, but settled for Rosen, Gruden wanted more picks and was asking to move down, got his picks but took less value to do so. Arizona got the last pick of the litter and paid less to do so, knowing Gruden was looking to stack his roster and they took advantage. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Evans played big is my thing, he bounced corners off and was always coming back to passes and catching with his hands. His physical limitations didn't translate into weaknesses in his game, they were simply part of who he was as a wideout- not very fast, ran average routes due to limited quickness, but he understood how to play and make the most of his size. I don't see Harry doing that, I see the ball getting on him instead of him attacking it...his limitations physically sort of define him as a wideout in a way that Evans' didn't. I can't say for sure obviously but I don't see Harry having success in the pros unless he drastically improves his technique which is why I don't like him as a first rounder. Screams project imo.

 

I certainly understand where you are coming from. I think the things you raise are legitimate concerns I'm just not sure I think he is quite so limited in those respects as to knock him down quite as much as you do. I think he uses his body reasonably well. He sometimes has a tendency not to high point the football I agree, it is a technique issue - I agree. But I don't think it is so prevalent in his game as to put him in the project category. I don't have him as a first rounder either. I don't have any of these WRs currently as 1st round grades on my big board. But I think he is a top of the 2nd type grade and may well go off the board sometime after mid first round. How fast he runs at the combine is critical. I think he will run faster than 4.6 - if he doesn't then I agree his first round chances are remote if not gone entirely.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I certainly understand where you are coming from. I think the things you raise are legitimate concerns I'm just not sure I think he is quite so limited in those respects as to knock him down quite as much as you do. I think he uses his body reasonably well. He sometimes has a tendency not to high point the football I agree, it is a technique issue - I agree. But I don't think it is so prevalent in his game as to put him in the project category. I don't have him as a first rounder either. I don't have any of these WRs currently as 1st round grades on my big board. But I think he is a top of the 2nd type grade and may well go off the board sometime after mid first round. How fast he runs at the combine is critical. I think he will run faster than 4.6 - if he doesn't then I agree his first round chances are remote if not gone entirely.

LOL I just read back and you made the Evans comp last page?...didn't mean to steal your thunder! Overall looking at wideouts I think the value might be in the 2nd, I don't know how much the FO is going to enjoy spending a 1st on a wideout like Harry wrt the needs of this offense re: Allen.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

LOL I just read back and you made the Evans comp last page?...didn't mean to steal your thunder! Overall looking at wideouts I think the value might be in the 2nd, I don't know how much the FO is going to enjoy spending a 1st on a wideout like Harry wrt the needs of this offense re: Allen.

 

I don't think we will pick a WR in the 1st round and I don't think Harry is likely their guy given a broad choice in the 2nd. I think they will go for pure speed - a Parris Campbell type guy (who personally I am not high at all on).

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think we will pick a WR in the 1st round and I don't think Harry is likely their guy given a broad choice in the 2nd. I think they will go for pure speed - a Parris Campbell type guy (who personally I am not high at all on).

My guy at wideout is Samuel out of SC...thoughts?

[CommonCents]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think we will pick a WR in the 1st round and I don't think Harry is likely their guy given a broad choice in the 2nd. I think they will go for pure speed - a Parris Campbell type guy (who personally I am not high at all on).

If they don’t get one of these big targets for JA then they are making a mistake. People can debate who is better between DK, Harry and Butler but taking a one dimensional speedster and ignoring them would be a terrible decision. If McD can’t leave a blue chip defender on the table so he can fix the offense then I don’t have high hopes for him. 

 

The FA WR group isn’t very good, the Bills need to sure up the oline in FA and use the picks on playmakers.

 

I will be really disappointed if they don’t draft a real WR. 

[YattaOkasan]

14 hours ago, TigerJ said:

I've read that while Harry can make highlight real catches, fights for the ball to make 50/50 catches and has excellent run after the catch ability, he really doesn't gain separation downfield.  His highlight video showed all of that in living color.  the only passes on which he had separation were short catches where the DB was playing soft.  Hockenson actually gained more separation, though that might have been because he's a tight end and is not always covered by a CB.  I think Hockenson will be a good one.  Ximines might be a great edge rusher, but I didn't like the way his highlight video was done.  It showed the end result, but not how he came off the line and beat the blocker.  That's what I really want to see.  Again, he's got to be doing something right to be as disruptive as he is.  I'd just like to see the plays from start to finish.  Henderson also looks like a good one.  Ford is well regarded and Udoh showed well inb the Senior Bowl.

So I am not a big fan of highlight videos at all.  I suggest you just put the name into youtube with "vs" and see what pops up.  Harry's game against Utah this year was sick.  ODU edge was pretty good against ECU and he was almost constantly double teamed or chipped by the RB.  The Iowa TEs have been interesting in the draft breakdowns.  I like Hock better but I need to watch some more.  Haven't gotten a chance to see more of other players.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

My guy at wideout is Samuel out of SC...thoughts?

 

Pro-ready and I could see him having an instant impact as a slot. His cuts and direction changes are so sharp it is really impressive. I just think limited upside and ability to play outside. To me he would play the role the Bills used McKenzie in down the stretch extremely well, short quick breaking routes, jet sweeps, the odd seam route I just don't know if I ever see him as a true dominant outside player. I suppose high floor but lowish ceiling is my summary.

[wppete]

2 hours ago, Spielman said:

I would like to see Hakeem Butler and Andy Isabella.  Butler looks faster than Harry (the combine will tell).  Also, no way Ford last until round 2.  I also like Risner, Deebo Samuel, and Terrell Hanks (Hanks in the 4th)

 

Hakeem Butler reminds me of a taller AJ Green. Smooth route runner and incredible catch radius. Goes up and gets the ball at 6’6. Strong hands.

 

 

Edited January 29, 2019 by wppete

[STL-Bills]

13 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

My guy at wideout is Samuel out of SC...thoughts?

 

Couldn't agree more. I think he'll be the best WR from this draft, unless DK really reaches his potential.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Pro-ready and I could see him having an instant impact as a slot. His cuts and direction changes are so sharp it is really impressive. I just think limited upside and ability to play outside. To me he would play the role the Bills used McKenzie in down the stretch extremely well, short quick breaking routes, jet sweeps, the odd seam route I just don't know if I ever see him as a true dominant outside player. I suppose high floor but lowish ceiling is my summary.

Between Samuel, Jones, and Foster I think they could be a good group. I'm expecting both Jones and Foster to progress next year and if Foster starts breaking into that WR1 role having two underneath/slot posession type guys in Samuel and Jones who can get open reliably would be imo best case scenario for the offense, considering what the draft class at wideout looks like to me anyway.

[STL-Bills]

1 hour ago, Juice_32 said:

I love the idea of trading down in the first (unless Q. Williams or Oliver are there) and then using our later round picks to trade back up for specific players in the 4th and 5th. It could very well play out that way. I'd be surprised if we end up making more than 8 picks total. 

 

Something like this is possible if there is a QB run in the top 10...

 

1: R1P15

OT JONAH WILLIAMS

ALABAMA

2: R2P9

C DALTON RISNER

KANSAS STATE

3: R2P14

DL JERRY TILLERY

NOTRE DAME

4: R3P1

WR DEEBO SAMUEL

SOUTH CAROLINA

5: R4P11

 TE ZACH GENTRY

MICHIGAN

6: R4P29

RB DARRELL HENDERSON

MEMPHIS

7: R5P3

CB JUSTIN LAYNE

MICHIGAN STATE

8: R5P11

WR PARRIS CAMPBELL

OHIO STATE

 

If we get Jonah Williams, Risner, and Samuel, we'll look back at the 2019 draft as one of the few that turned this franchise into a consistent winner. While I'm not sold on Williams at LT, I think his versatility will translate into a productive player at some position on OL. Risner is going to be an excellent interior player, and potentially be solid at RT. Deebo is the prototype of today's NFL receiver; fast, extremely quick, great hands, exceptional route running. Big, outside WR targets are a thing of the past. Rams don't have one, Pats don't have one. Its all about speed, elusiveness, and route running.

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Between Samuel, Jones, and Foster I think they could be a good group. I'm expecting both Jones and Foster to progress next year and if Foster starts breaking into that WR1 role having two underneath/slot posession type guys in Samuel and Jones who can get open reliably would be imo best case scenario for the offense, considering what the draft class at wideout looks like to me anyway.

 

I think they need a 1. I don't think Robert Foster is a #1. I think he is too limited. Hope I'm wrong.

11 minutes ago, STL-Bills said:

Deebo is the prototype of today's NFL receiver; fast, extremely quick, great hands, exceptional route running. Big, outside WR targets are a thing of the past. Rams don't have one, Pats don't have one. Its all about speed, elusiveness, and route running.

 

Hmm. I am not sure I agree on that at all. I still think big outside targets are needed. Whether they are as big of a need in the offense Daboll wants to run is a fair question. But the Eagles won last year with Jeffrey playing a big role, the Saints have Michael Thomas. The Patriots have rarely gone in for big outside guys it is true and this year the Rams haven't. But I am not convinced that is the future of the NFL.