This Is Why Spending Big $ For A RB Is Not Wise:

[LSHMEAB]

11 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

No doubt. I'm not saying we should be investing firsts in RBs; just that the Bills have been historically terrible in later-round RB evaluation. Btw, did you see my addition above about Dwayne Wright and Ralph? Remember that? Incidentally, Shady's 2017 season was measurably better than anything Bell ever put up ...

I understand what you're saying here as it applies to the Bills because they've really been quite poor at evaluating late round RB's. However, the most productive RB the Bills have had since TT was FredEx and he was plucked off the scrapheap by Levy. RB's may not be "dime a dozen," but there seems to be an inordinate amount of successful RB's who were drafted late or not drafted at all compared to other positions. When you consider the shelf life of a RB, the RELATIVE interchangeability, and the FA price tag, it just doesn't make a ton of sense to draft one in the first round. I think it makes more sense for a team like the Pats who are already "there" and also picking in the 30's.

 

If you take one top 10, he better damn well be a Todd Gurley and not a CJ Spiller.  

25 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah you aren't going to find many future 10K rushing yard RB's late in the draft.

Hell, even Shady was taken with the 53rd pick. Not exactly late, but not top 10.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

6 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I understand what you're saying here as it applies to the Bills because they've really been quite poor at evaluating late round RB's. However, the most productive RB the Bills have had since TT was FredEx and he was plucked off the scrapheap by Levy. RB's may not be "dime a dozen," but there seems to be an inordinate amount of successful RB's who were drafted late or not drafted at all compared to other positions. When you consider the shelf life of a RB, the RELATIVE interchangeability, and the FA price tag, it just doesn't make a ton of sense to draft one in the first round. I think it makes more sense for a team like the Pats who are already "there" and also picking in the 30's.

 

If you take one top 10, he better damn well be a Todd Gurley and not a CJ Spiller.  

Hell, even Shady was taken with the 53rd pick. Not exactly late, but not top 10.

 

....so do you think it is fair to evaluate NOW versus THEN?.....don't we need to evaluate the "pickers"?......17 years of "F Troop" running the show post Polian versus what is shaping up to be a solid managerial/coaching corp can make a world of difference....2018 draft/UDFA signings isn't a bad indicator IMO.........

Edited January 28, 2019 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I understand what you're saying here as it applies to the Bills because they've really been quite poor at evaluating late round RB's. However, the most productive RB the Bills have had since TT was FredEx and he was plucked off the scrapheap by Levy. RB's may not be "dime a dozen," but there seems to be an inordinate amount of successful RB's who were drafted late or not drafted at all compared to other positions. When you consider the shelf life of a RB, the RELATIVE interchangeability, and the FA price tag, it just doesn't make a ton of sense to draft one in the first round. I think it makes more sense for a team like the Pats who are already "there" and also picking in the 30's.

 

If you take one top 10, he better damn well be a Todd Gurley and not a CJ Spiller.  

I think the mid-second round is the sweet spot for RBs - not an overinvestment, but early enough to nab a truly talented player. McCoy, Bell, Mixon, Derrick Henry, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Travis Henry ... lotta talent historically in that round. 

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

....so do you think it is fair to evaluate NOW versus THEN?.....don't we need to evaluate the "pickers"?......17 years of "F Troop" running the show post Polian versus what is shaping up to be a solid managerial/coaching corp can make a world of difference....2018 draft/UDFA signings isn't a bad indicator IMO.........

Yeah. I wasn't specifically referencing THIS regime. Just taking a panoramic shot of the Bills. These guys haven't even drafted a RB. Ivory was a decent acquisition. Tolbert was awful. Gonna be tough sledding for any RB until they fix the line.

[Punching Bag]

On 1/25/2019 at 12:29 PM, formerlyofCtown said:

Shoulda kept Lynch.

Lynch in Buffalo was a one incident away from a year suspension and was being beaten on field by other backs - he was acting like he did not want to be there.

On 1/25/2019 at 1:08 PM, stuvian said:

is the 2017 RB class that great or is today's tackling that lousy?

 

Yes.

On 1/25/2019 at 5:13 PM, YodaMan79 said:

*Hunt will not command top dollar.  He's going to have to take a low guarantee, short term "show me deal".  Perfect for a team like the Bills, and I think good for Hunt.  A low tier media market could be what he needs to get back into the league, mentally.  If you keep McCoy, Hunt would be a nice 50/50 option early in the year, and as the season progresses you could phase the egotistical, washed up and locker room cancer out.  Players on the 90s teams did far worse than Hunt, and they're now lauded, so please spare me the moral high ground position.  

 

Can't tell if you're being sarcastic, idiotic or opening yourself up to a lot of ridicule?  Hopefully sarcastic...

[Punching Bag]

4 hours ago, mannc said:

It’s a sad list, but what’s more relevant, ancient Bills’ draft history, or recent league-wide experience, where good-great RBs are found in all rounds of the draft and even in UDFA?  

 

Notice he neglected to include our FA RB who beat out our 1st round RB on the field because it would put a hold in his argument.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

Just now, LSHMEAB said:

Yeah. I wasn't specifically referencing THIS regime. Just taking a panoramic shot of the Bills. These guys haven't even drafted a RB. Ivory was a decent acquisition. Tolbert was awful. Gonna be tough sledding for any RB until they fix the line.

 

 

...certainly agree bud....never understood the Tolbert signing...production?...hardly...locker room leadership?....maybe but questionable...agree on Ivory.....,...Murphy, Jones, & Ford showed some dribs and drabs along the way....BUT...they certainly need to find a later RB draft pick while simultaneously  fixing the OL........Shady remains a huge question mark, but don't see him as the featured back....and is the $6 mil tariff worth a situational guy?....Allen definitely needs the running game to be a respected threat and right now it is not IMO...

[Bing Bong]

5 hours ago, mannc said:

Gurley is a very poor example.  The Rams did not miss a beat with CJ Anderson, who they picked up off the street.  Gurley might not be a dime a dozen, but he's about the sixth most important guy in that offense.  And I very much doubt an injury to Sony Michel would move the needle much for NE, even though he's a good back.   

WHA WHA WHAAAAT?!

 

I can't even argue with this. Your opinion lol.

 

I'll continue to think Gurley is immensely important if not the most important to one of the best offenses in football, and the Sony Michel's good days are exactly what the doctor ordered for the 2019 Patriots. CJ Spiller's a great back to have when Gurley his hurt, but he's not Gurley.

[mannc]

9 minutes ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

WHA WHA WHAAAAT?!

 

I can't even argue with this. Your opinion lol.

 

I'll continue to think Gurley is immensely important if not the most important to one of the best offenses in football, and the Sony Michel's good days are exactly what the doctor ordered for the 2019 Patriots. CJ Spiller's a great back to have when Gurley his hurt, but he's not Gurley.

Well, we certainly agree that Todd Gurley is better than CJ Spiller, but Spiller’s been retired for a while now, so it’s probably not a fair comparison.?

[formerlyofCtown]

39 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

Lynch in Buffalo was a one incident away from a year suspension and was being beaten on field by other backs - he was acting like he did not want to be there.

 

Yes.

 

Can't tell if you're being sarcastic, idiotic or opening yourself up to a lot of ridicule?  Hopefully sarcastic...

He was averaging 4.4 per carry.

[LSHMEAB]

11 minutes ago, mannc said:

Well, we certainly agree that Todd Gurley is better than CJ Spiller, but Spiller’s been retired for a while now, so it’s probably not a fair comparison.?

It is crazy to see that round fool running wild for the Rams, so it lends some credence to your argument. don't know the deal is with that, but I think Gurley is an ELITE player who brings consistent excellence at the position. Gurley's gotta be banged up. Hopefully the two weeks off helps.

[Bing Bong]

18 minutes ago, mannc said:

Well, we certainly agree that Todd Gurley is better than CJ Spiller, but Spiller’s been retired for a while now, so it’s probably not a fair comparison.?

Lol. Gurley better watch his back for CJ Spiller's comeback. CJ Anderson is the least of his problems with Spiller honing his RB craft at home.

[boater]

I didn't read all four pages of content, so please excuse any repetition I bring.

 

There is a large legion of Bills fans who feel you can fix any part of the game by throwing money at it (they are also known as the "Ralph is cheap" crowd).

 

How dare you insult them with facts.

[Bing Bong]

15 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

It is crazy to see that round fool running wild for the Rams, so it lends some credence to your argument. don't know the deal is with that, but I think Gurley is an ELITE player who brings consistent excellence at the position. Gurley's gotta be banged up. Hopefully the two weeks off helps.

I always thought CJ Anderson was a sneaky fat water bug.. pretty dangerous combo, agile, center of gravity at his knees, great blocker and catcher. Would have loved the Bills to have grabbed him with our RB woes.

 

Man has been my fantasy darling. Brought me waiver wire pickup 2 fantasy football chips

 

Name of the game. One Pierre Thomas got me my 3rd

 

Anyways. Gurley's another story. MVP candidate with all them TDs. There's something to be said with about an RB that can take it from the house from any good run/short pass play to from 20. Makes your red zone offense a piece of cake relatively.

Edited January 28, 2019 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

[Bing Bong]

 

 

I'm all about Dem RBs. Don't have to pay top dollar. Draft well, get you a Corey Dillon, Blount, DeAngelo Williams, CJ Anderson. These guys make an offensive impact. But make sure you have a good coordinator and COMPETENT run blocking pleeaaaase Bills. 

[LSHMEAB]

16 minutes ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

I always thought CJ Anderson was a sneaky fat water bug.. pretty dangerous combo, agile, center of gravity at his knees, great blocker and catcher. Would have loved the Bills to have grabbed him with our RB woes.

 

Man has been my fantasy darling. Brought me waiver wire pickup 2 fantasy football chips

 

Name of the game. One Pierre Thomas got me my 3rd

 

Anyways. Gurley's another story. MVP candidate with all them TDs. There's something to be said with about an RB that can take it from the house from any good run/short pass play to from 20. Makes your red zone offense a piece of cake relatively.

For sure. CJ Anderson is like a good Mike Tolbert. Really funny looking, effective back. Gurley is just a stud.

[BobbyC81]

18 hours ago, auburnbillsbacker said:

Didn't he drive while intoxicated, hit a woman with his car, then flee the seen of the crime?  

 

There was also the supposed mall incident when he took a $20 from a cop’s wife, who asked him to autograph it, and walked off with it.

[GunnerBill]

On ‎1‎/‎25‎/‎2019 at 5:25 PM, mannc said:

Umm, no.  The list in the OP would indicate a 100% success rate in first three rounds (Fournette was a terrible pick at 4 overall, but he's certainly a good back), and in fact all of the first 10 RBs selected have turned out to be good to great.  And even the ones selected after that have a high success rate.  

 

Foreman? He has had as many injuries as carries so far in the NFL.

[row_33]

On 1/25/2019 at 12:51 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This isn't directly your point, but it's relevant. 

 

People always talk as though drafting a great college athlete is a sure bet for success in the pro's.

It's not.  Overall, the 1st round is something like 50% and 2nd and 3rd round 30% - not to get a star, just to get a capable quality NFL player.

I'm not saying "pay McCoy", or "draft a guy high in the 1st", just pointing out that it may not be so easy as "draft and use"

 

One thing is certain sure, if the QB is a bona-fide passing threat and the OL is solid at run blocking, the chances of RB success go way up.

 

 

 Is this due to fans and announcers drooling over stats piled up mostly against horribly outmatched cupcakes?

 

 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2019 by row_33

[GunnerBill]

16 hours ago, mannc said:

Gurley is a very poor example.  The Rams did not miss a beat with CJ Anderson, who they picked up off the street.  Gurley might not be a dime a dozen, but he's about the sixth most important guy in that offense.  And I very much doubt an injury to Sony Michel would move the needle much for NE, even though he's a good back.   

 

It is consistent with people believing Jared Goff is just a stiff who turns around and hands it off and does what McVay whispers in his ear during the play because they snap the ball so early. There was before the playoffs a genuine belief out there that the Rams offense was more reliant on Todd Gurley (fine back though he is) than Jared Goff. They are not, they never were, and some fans are gonna have to get used to the fact that Goff is a good Quarterback.