This Is Why Spending Big $ For A RB Is Not Wise:

[dave mcbride]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

Karlos was awesome (Whaley sucks) before he got stoned and fat.  I also remember some good Holmes’ moments.

 

but your point stands.  I do think those were some bad olines.  I think with a good oline and passing threat, rbs can be fairly interchangeable.

A couple of these players had some decent moments (Shawn Bryson), but none were any good relative to actually good NFL RBs. 40 years with basically nothing beyond backup production from the RB position among players taken after rd 2 is truly pathetic. 

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Here is a list of every Buffalo Bills RB draft pick who was taken *after* the second round going back to 1980. It is a truly sorry list. There is not one player among the 22 players selected who turned out to be a difference maker by any definition of the term. Sammy Morris was probably the best of the bunch and he ran for only 3000 yards in 12 seasons. Longtime backup, basically. Not one of the RBs listed below ever ran for 750 yards in a season. Anyway, while many teams have clearly found good RBs after round one, The Bills have a 40-year history of never finding one. 

2016: Jonathan Williams

2015: Karlos Williams

2011: Johnny White

2008: Xavier Omon

2007: Dwayne Wright

2005: Lionel Gates

2002: Jarrett Ferguson

2000: Sammy Morris
1999: Shawn Bryson

1998: Jonathan Linton

1996: Leon Neal

1995: Darick Holmes

1991: Amir Rasul

1990: Eddie Fuller

1989: Sean Doctor

1988: Bo Wright

1987: Jamie Mueller

1987: Kerry Porter

1986: Carl Byrum

1983: George Parker

1982: Van Williams

1981: Rob Riddick

 

It’s a sad list, but what’s more relevant, ancient Bills’ draft history, or recent league-wide experience, where good-great RBs are found in all rounds of the draft and even in UDFA?  

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

A couple of these players had some decent moments (Shawn Bryson), but none were any good relative to actually good NFL RBs. 40 years with basically nothing beyond backup production from the RB position among players taken after rd 2 is truly pathetic. 

I mean Williams would have.  But you’re right. I just think part of the issue is we have had bad olines and no threat at qb.  The Pats and Saints seem to find good rbs later in the draft.  Is that because they are better at drafting or because of the qb/ oline?

 

also, shouldn’t Freddie be part of this?

Edited January 28, 2019 by C.Biscuit97

[dave mcbride]

Just now, mannc said:

It’s a sad list, but what’s more relevant, ancient Bills’ draft history, or recent league-wide experience, where good-great RBs are found in all rounds of the draft and even in UDFA?  

When it comes to the Bills, Bills history is sadly something that should kept at the front of one's mind--certainly as much as league-wide trends. 

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

I mean Williams would have.  But you’re right. I just think part of the issue is we have had bad olines and no threat at qb.  The Pats and Saints seem to find good rbs later in the draft.  Is that because they are better at drafting or because of the qb/ oline?

 

also, shouldn’t Freddie be part of this?

Freddie didn't even start with the Bills -- he played 3 seasons of pro ball for the Sioux City Bandits and the Rhein Fire before coming to Buffalo. He was picked up from NFL Europe. He was never on anyone in the organization's radar screen on draft day. The teams that tried him out his draft year were the Packers, Bears, and Broncos.

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I mean Williams would have.  But you’re right. I just think part of the issue is we have had bad olines and no threat at qb.  The Pats and Saints seem to find good rbs later in the draft.  Is that because they are better at drafting or because of the qb/ oline?

 

also, shouldn’t Freddie be part of this?

Belichick has actually drafted RBs twice in the first round for the Pats: Michel and Lawrence Maroney.

[BADOLBILZ]

43 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Here is a list of every Buffalo Bills RB draft pick who was taken *after* the second round going back to 1978. It is a truly sorry list. There is not one player among the 25 players selected who turned out to be a difference maker by any definition of the term. Sammy Morris was probably the best of the bunch and he ran for only 3000 yards in 12 seasons. Longtime backup, basically. Not one of the RBs listed below ever ran for 750 yards in a season. Anyway, while many teams have clearly found good RBs after round one, The Bills have a 40-year history of never finding one. 

2016: Jonathan Williams

2015: Karlos Williams

2011: Johnny White

2008: Xavier Omon

2007: Dwayne Wright

2005: Lionel Gates

2002: Jarrett Ferguson

2000: Sammy Morris
1999: Shawn Bryson

1998: Jonathan Linton

1996: Leon Neal

1995: Darick Holmes

1991: Amir Rasul

1990: Eddie Fuller

1989: Sean Doctor

1988: Bo Wright

1987: Jamie Mueller

1987: Kerry Porter

1986: Carl Byrum

1983: George Parker

1982: Van Williams

1981: Rob Riddick

1979: Mike Harris

1978: Dennis Johnson

1978: Steve Powell

 

 

 

The Bills have ALWAYS had a first or second round pick at the top of their RB depth chart in the SB era.

 

Many times even 2 of them.

 

So their backfields weren't easy to crack...........but at the same time not nearly enough late round flyers........which often lead to situations where they were a bit RB desperate and resulted in them making the bad decision to invest yet another first rounder into the RB position.........which is kind of the case now.

 

Hopefully this FO is smarter than that but we shall see.

 

 

[dave mcbride]

10 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

The Bills have ALWAYS had a first or second round pick at the top of their RB depth chart in the SB era.

 

Many times even 2 of them.

 

So their backfields weren't easy to crack...........but at the same time not nearly enough late round flyers........which often lead to situations where they were a bit RB desperate and resulted in them making the bad decision to invest yet another first rounder into the RB position.........which is kind of the case now.

 

Hopefully this FO is smarter than that but we shall see.

 

 

I get that, but my point is that the guys who backed them up weren't actually any good. It's not like they were the U circa 2000, with McGahee waiting in the wings behind Frank Gore. They also did spend a pretty fair amount of late round picks on RBs over the years. Again, though, none turned out to be good. The best were Riddick, Bryson (a third rounder), and Morris. 

Edited January 28, 2019 by dave mcbride

[mannc]

45 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I get that, but my point is that the guys who backed them up weren't actually any good. It's not like they were the U circa 2000, with McGahee waiting in the wings behind Frank Gore. They also did spend a pretty fair amount of late round picks on RBs over the years. Again, though, none turned out to be good. The best were Riddick, Bryson (a third rounder), and Morris. 

Hmmm...it's almost as if the Bills' front office wasn't very good at its job over that time frame...?

[BADOLBILZ]

43 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I get that, but my point is that the guys who backed them up weren't actually any good. It's not like they were the U circa 2000, with McGahee waiting in the wings behind Frank Gore. They also did spend a pretty fair amount of late round picks on RBs over the years. Again, though, none turned out to be good. The best were Riddick, Bryson (a third rounder), and Morris. 

 

I don't think they've used many late picks on RB's at all.

 

Too few since 2000 actually........but part of that was related to stretches where the backfield was just overloaded.

 

Yeah they may have had 6 misses out of 8 tries in those 19 drafts.........but in 2010 they also originally signed UDFA Joique Bell(who became a nice player for a few seasons when given a chance and once had a near 1200 yard combined yardage season for Detroit).......and as previously mentioned found Fred Jackson and Mike Gillislee on the street.   Fred of course was a stud and MG lead the NFL in several categories in his two seasons with the Bills.

 

Bottom line............RB is still a pretty easy place to find production.

[dave mcbride]

21 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I don't think they've used many late picks on RB's at all.

 

Too few since 2000 actually........but part of that was related to stretches where the backfield was just overloaded.

 

Yeah they may have had 6 misses out of 8 tries in those 19 drafts.........but in 2010 they also originally signed UDFA Joique Bell(who became a nice player for a few seasons when given a chance and once had a near 1200 yard combined yardage season for Detroit).......and as previously mentioned found Fred Jackson and Mike Gillislee on the street.   Fred of course was a stud and MG lead the NFL in several categories in his two seasons with the Bills.

 

Bottom line............RB is still a pretty easy place to find production.

Meh re Gillislee. I am thinking of a back that can actually produce beyond 500 yards rushing / 800 rushing-receiving. Fred is the only *good* RB they've had that they didn't draft in rounds 1 or 2. 5 years from now, we're going to remember Gilislee (out of the league now after completely flaming out in NE and serving as a very short term steroid-related replacement for Ingram in NO) as a guy who had a cup of coffee in the NFL and not much else. When you're highest AV is 4 ( https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GillMi00.htm ), you ain't headed to the history books. Yeah, you can point to to his ypa, but he was a crappy receiver, and after he fumbled once in NE early in the season, he wasn't good enough at the rest of the things RBs are supposed to do to merit playing time. His legend on TBD is inflated to say the least. He also led in one category (in one season on a limited snap count), not several. 

 

Anyway, I'm focused on guys who turned out to be good players, not rushing-once-for-500-yards guys. Guys who produce at what I regard as a legit level get at least 1250 yards from scrimmage via rushing and receiving. Fred (who wasn't drafted) is the only one who did it (3 times), and moreover was the only one came close except for Rob Riddick in 1986, who combined for just over 1000. I don't give a crap about the Joique Bells of the world. He wasn't drafted by the Bills and never played a friggin' down for them either. He was a classic case of a Lions RB -- not very good but a guy who accumulated some (modest) stats because he was the only person to hand the ball off to. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

Edited January 28, 2019 by dave mcbride

[YodaMan79]

Sad list.  I remember seeing flashes in Holmes, Bryson and Linton (am I mis-remembering), thinking they could have been good.  Being a kid/young adult at the time I think I was most likely romanticizing these guys, blind to the fact they weren't that good.  I do remember Bryson having a couple of decent games for the Lions of all teams.  

[Scott7975]

Been saying it for years now... teams do not value the RB position like they use to.  You can find really good running backs in just about any round.  Was it cool having Shady?  Absolutely, but it is not necessary.

[BADOLBILZ]

13 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Meh re Gillislee. I am thinking of a back that can actually produce beyond 500 yards rushing / 800 rushing-receiving. Fred is the only *good* RB they've had that they didn't draft in rounds 1 or 2. 5 years from now, we're going to remember Gilislee (out of the league now after completely flaming out in NE and serving as a very short term steroid-related replacement for Ingram in NO) as a guy who had a cup of coffee in the NFL and not much else. When you're highest AV is 4 ( https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GillMi00.htm ), you ain't headed to the history books. Yeah, you can point to to his ypa, but he was a crappy receiver, and after he fumbled once in NE early in the season, he wasn't good enough at the rest of the things RBs are supposed to do to merit playing time. His legend on TBD is inflated to say the least. He also led in one category (in one season on a limited snap count), not several. 

 

Anyway, I'm focused on guys who turned out to be good players, not rushing-once-for-500-yards guys. Guys who produce at what I regard as a legit level get at least 1250 yards from scrimmage via rushing and receiving. Fred (who wasn't drafted) is the only one who did it (3 times), and moreover was the only one came close except for Rob Riddick in 1986, who combined for just over 1000. I don't give a crap about the Joique Bells of the world. He wasn't drafted by the Bills and never played a friggin' down for them either. He was a classic case of a Lions RB -- not very good but a guy who accumulated some (modest) stats because he was the only person to hand the ball off to. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

 

 

dave.........the Bills have had AT LEAST one first or second round running back at the top of their depth chart every year for the last 50 years.

 

They are the quintessential example of an over-invested-in-RB's franchise.

 

So where was all of this opportunity for a non-top pick to put up 1,250 yard seasons?

 

I just don't know where you are going with with this point.

 

Is it really odd that a team that's had like starting 5 RB's still in their prime who at one point or another who would go on to accumulate over 10K rushing yards each(OJ, Thurman, Willis, Lynch, McCoy) would not have found many diamonds in the rough?

 

 

Could the Bills do a better job evaluating RB's...........no doubt..........to me, not finding more good ones later just epitomizes the fact that they haven't been a traditionally good team at scouting talent.    Finding a good RB in round one makes you look good but is the epitome of picking low hanging fruit.   It's easy and requires very little in depth evaluation.

 

 

 

 

[CommonCents]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

The Bills have ALWAYS had a first or second round pick at the top of their RB depth chart in the SB era.

 

Many times even 2 of them.

 

So their backfields weren't easy to crack...........but at the same time not nearly enough late round flyers........which often lead to situations where they were a bit RB desperate and resulted in them making the bad decision to invest yet another first rounder into the RB position.........which is kind of the case now.

 

Hopefully this FO is smarter than that but we shall see.

 

 

Paying Ivory and not taking a flyer on a younger late round pick was a mistake. Now RB is a need and they probably shouldn’t wait until day 3.

[mannc]

12 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

Paying Ivory and not taking a flyer on a younger late round pick was a mistake. Now RB is a need and they probably shouldn’t wait until day 3.

Yeah, two years in a row with zero picks used on RB is a real head-scratcher, given the age of the team’s RB stable, and especially given McDermott’s affinity for ground-and-pound Jauron-ball.

[dave mcbride]

28 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

dave.........the Bills have had AT LEAST one first or second round running back at the top of their depth chart every year for the last 50 years.

 

They are the quintessential example of an over-invested-in-RB's franchise.

 

So where was all of this opportunity for a non-top pick to put up 1,250 yard seasons?

 

I just don't know where you are going with with this point.

 

Is it really odd that a team that's had like starting 5 RB's still in their prime who at one point or another who would go on to accumulate over 10K rushing yards each(OJ, Thurman, Willis, Lynch, McCoy) would not have found many diamonds in the rough?

 

 

Could the Bills do a better job evaluating RB's...........no doubt..........to me, not finding more good ones later just epitomizes the fact that they haven't been a traditionally good team at scouting talent.    Finding a good RB in round one makes you look good but is the epitome of picking low hanging fruit.   It's easy and requires very little in depth evaluation.

 

 

 

 

You are not listening to me. The guys they drafted in later rounds weren't any good. To a man. Full stop. None. Nada. They didn't suffer because they were blocked by superior talent. They just sucked, mostly. That's my point. Everyone talks about how good talent at the RB position can be found in the later rounds. That hasn't been the case with the Bills, and we have 4 decades of evidence to prove it. The RB talent situation in Buffalo has historically been the opposite of the dime-a-dozen scenario that gets thrown about so frequently. 

Can that change? I hope so. But I'm not betting money on it given past history.  Christ, remember when Ralph butted in during the draft and pushed for the drafting of Dwayne Wright in the fourth round the same year they drafted Lynch? He apparently saw some Fresno State clips and was smitten. Now that's some classic Buffalo Bills history!

Edited January 28, 2019 by dave mcbride

[BADOLBILZ]

9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

You are not listening to me. The guys they drafted in later rounds weren't any good. To a man. Full stop. None. Nada. They didn't suffer because they were blocked by superior talent. They just sucked, mostly. That's my point. Everyone talks about how good talent at the RB position can be found in the later rounds. That hasn't been the case with the Bills, and we have 4 decades of evidence to prove it. The RB talent situation in Buffalo has historically been the opposite of the dime-a-dozen scenario that gets thrown about so frequently. 

 

 

Yeah you aren't going to find many future 10K rushing yard RB's late in the draft.

 

It's probably the easiest position to evaluate so the really outstanding individuals rarely slip thru the cracks.

 

And the "you can always find good talent at the RB position in later rounds" is wrong if that is the context you are taking it in.

 

The more accurate way to put it is that you can field championship level ground-game production with RB's taken in later rounds.

 

It's draft season so we will inevitably hear about how some position that we were weak at(like center) is a justifiable first round position and given McCoy's sub-peak-Joique Bell production the past two years() I suspect we will hear a lot of cries to invest another first or second round pick in a RB.

 

Bottom line..........it doesn't pay.

 

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah you aren't going to find many future 10K rushing yard RB's late in the draft.

 

It's probably the easiest position to evaluate so the really outstanding individuals rarely slip thru the cracks.

 

And the "you can always find good talent at the RB position in later rounds" is wrong if that is the context you are taking it in.

 

The more accurate way to put it is that you can field championship level ground-game production with RB's taken in later rounds.

 

It's draft season so we will inevitably hear about how some position that we were weak at(like center) is a justifiable first round position and given McCoy's sub-peak-Joique Bell production the past two years() I suspect we will hear a lot of cries to invest another first or second round pick in a RB.

 

Bottom line..........it doesn't pay.

 

No doubt. I'm not saying we should be investing firsts in RBs; just that the Bills have been historically terrible in later-round RB evaluation. Btw, did you see my addition above about Dwayne Wright and Ralph? Remember that? Incidentally, Shady's 2017 season was measurably better than anything Bell ever put up ...

Edited January 28, 2019 by dave mcbride

[Beast]

On 1/25/2019 at 12:54 PM, Doc said:

You can get a good RB (or player) anywhere in the draft.  The hard part is finding him. 

 

The one thing the Bills haven’t had a problem with?

 

Finding good running backs.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

6 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

No doubt. I'm not saying we should be investing firsts in RBs; just that the Bills have been historically terrible in later-round RB evaluation. Btw, did you see my addition above about Dwayne Wright and Ralph? Remember that? Incidentally, Shady's 2017 season was measurably better than anything Bell ever put up ...

 

....not convinced that the current gang should be a presumptive part of "bad history"..... ....agree that those later rounds/UDFA's are governed by the "law of diminishing returns" and RB selection was an issue for the former "F Troops"........yet I'd say McBeane and his "Gang of 17" were pretty impressive....Proehl is the only one gone......and UDFA's Foster and Wallace so noted.....they can find RB value later as they have done with other positions....

Round 4, Pick 21 (No, 121 overall): Taron Johnson, CB, Weber State

Round 5, Pick 17 (No. 154 overall) [via Baltimore]: Siran Neal, CB, Jacksonville State
Round 5, Pick 29 (No. 166 overall): Wyatt Teller, G, Virginia Tech
Round 6, Pick 13 (No. 187 overall): Ray-Ray McCloud, WR, Clemson
Round 7, Pick 37 (No. 255 overall): Austin Proehl, WR, North Carolina