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This Is Why Spending Big $ For A RB Is Not Wise:


YodaMan79

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On 1/25/2019 at 11:16 AM, Virgil said:

I think we’ve all learned in the past few years that it isn’t as simple as just having a solid runningback.  It’s about your offensive line, your scheme, your respectable passing game.  

 

Teams shouldn’t pay for a guy who is aging or doesn’t fit their scheme. But if you have a guy who you know is good, fits your scheme, younger that 27, I think you absolutely pay him.  

 

 

 

Which both of these things were what the Bills looked at when they brought Shady here he was under 27 & quite possibly the best back in the league at the time & it was thought he could make our running/passing game better & he did so i think Shady signing was a good move !!

 

I just hope like he says he can bounce back & be that guy going forward this year to allow a new RB to be brought in through the draft to carry the torch because i think Shady could definitely be on the down side of his career but would like to see the team do enough for his career so that if & when he does get the call to go to the hall he would go in as a Buffalo Bill !!

Edited by T master
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On 1/25/2019 at 10:06 AM, YodaMan79 said:

The 2017 RB draft class looks to be one for the ages.  It begs the question, why would you wants the Bills to tie up large money in a FA or McCoy?  The way the front office has been able to grab talent and value in the later rounds leads me to believe they could find really good RBs from Rd 3 on.  I grabbed this from Bill Barnwell of ESPN.  I didn't realize how great this class really was.  Carson in the 7th?  Wow. 

 

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From that table it seems like you should be drafting your running back with at least your 3rd round pick or even higher. Big drop off after that.

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I'd be thrilled with a Mack, Cohen, Carson or Jones type of player from the 4th on.  Joe Williams and Perine looked solid at times before they were injured, too.  I'd say your % does drastically decrease after the 4th round like any other position.  I think the hit rate for an RB is much higher than other positions besides OL.  

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Seeing how important the offensive line is to the back i would never draft a rb in top 15 picks unless i thought i was getting Barry Sanders or LT. IMO the only guys you take in top 10 are qbs, and O or D  lineman unless you think they are truly special such as Ray Lewis or Randy Moss. I know there are not enough guys to fill the top 10 this way so i would likely have issues as a GM.

Edited by Buffalo Timmy
Wanted to add example
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Buffalo Timmy -- I agree with you 100%.  Players like Sanders, LT or even most recently Barkley would be worthy.  Emmitt is a prime example of what an OL can do.  Not saying he wasn't good, but I think his greatest ability was durability.  Draft and develop the best OL possible, then watch all the skill position players flourish!

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It's ironic that each of the four conference championship teams had a high pick at RB to start the season: 

 

New England - Michel (1st round, 31st overall / 2018)

Los Angeles - Gurley (1st round, 10th overall / 2015)

New Orleans - Ingram (1st round, 28th overall / 2011) and Kamara (3rd round, 67th overall / 2017)

Kansas City - Hunt* (3rd round, 86th overall / 2017)

 

*Released mid-season

 

That said, Buffalo has a lot of personnel issues on offense and while they need to get younger, I would think OT, interior OL, WR, and TE are more pressing issues.

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Coincidental I think.  Gurley being the only really high pick the past 4 years.  Lynch in 2014?  He looked quite average in 2016.  CJ Anderson is looking like a word beater off the street makes me wonder. The coach does a great job of putting those guys in favorable matchup situations.  I look at 28-32 as luxury picks for established teams extracting what they feel is the best value, or they trade out.  Ingram was suspended to start the year, and he's a part time player.  Good point though, this year is an anomaly.  I look at the three years prior and it's mostly home grown mid-round selections.  Though, I think with the exception of the Patriots a lot of that is due to the cap % those QBs carry.   

 

Last year:

Patriots vs Jags (Fournette 1st) 

Eagles vs Vikings (2nd rd Cook hurt most of the year) 

 

2016:

Steelers vs Patriots (Bell 2nd)

Falcons vs Packers 

 

2015:

Broncos vs Patriots 

Panters vs Cardinals 

 

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Unless it is a transcendent player, ala; Barkley, you wait.

11 minutes ago, YodaMan79 said:

Coincidental I think.  Gurley being the only really high pick the past 4 years.  Lynch in 2014?  He looked quite average in 2016.  CJ Anderson is looking like a word beater off the street makes me wonder. The coach does a great job of putting those guys in favorable matchup situations.  I look at 28-32 as luxury picks for established teams extracting what they feel is the best value, or they trade out.  Ingram was suspended to start the year, and he's a part time player.  Good point though, this year is an anomaly.  I look at the three years prior and it's mostly home grown mid-round selections.  Though, I think with the exception of the Patriots a lot of that is due to the cap % those QBs carry.   

 

Last year:

Patriots vs Jags (Fournette 1st) 

Eagles vs Vikings (2nd rd Cook hurt most of the year) 

 

2016:

Steelers vs Patriots (Bell 2nd)

Falcons vs Packers 

 

2015:

Broncos vs Patriots 

Panters vs Cardinals 

 

Well Barkley went number 2 right?

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On 1/25/2019 at 12:16 PM, Virgil said:

I think we’ve all learned in the past few years that it isn’t as simple as just having a solid runningback.  It’s about your offensive line, your scheme, your respectable passing game.  

 

Even the list you just posted only shows a 50% success rate in the first 3 rounds. That’s not a good thing. 

 

Teams shouldn’t pay for a guy who is aging or doesn’t fit their scheme. But if you have a guy who you know is good, fits your scheme, younger that 27, I think you absolutely pay him.  

 

We went through a phase of runningback by committee and some teams still do. It’s what keeps players like Kamara fresh.  But they also are going to pay him when it’s time. He’s changed their offense.  

 

Someone like Bell, if he were 2 years younger and didn’t have suspension issues?  I think he absolutely gets the 17 mil he’s looking for.  

 

End result, it’s not cut and dry about the position.  

well said

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Zeke, Gurley, Sony Michel completely changed those offenses to be as effective as they were.

 

Heck even Marlon Mack took a load off Luck's back.

 

You treat it like any other position and try to get talent there. Zeke and Gurley are NOT a dime a dozen.

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Michel?  He's good, but a compliment.  Looked to me as if Dion Lewis was pretty darn good, too.  I agree with Zeke and Gurley.  But their respective teams had to stink it up to get access to them.  Here's to hoping the Bills aren't picking this high again for a while. 

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2 hours ago, auburnbillsbacker said:

Didn't he drive while intoxicated, hit a woman with his car, then flee the seen of the crime?  

Well before we traded him.  That happened in 2008 and he was traded in 2010.  He was fined 150 and had his license suspended.  No he was not intoxicated.

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2 hours ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

Zeke, Gurley, Sony Michel completely changed those offenses to be as effective as they were.

 

Heck even Marlon Mack took a load off Luck's back.

 

You treat it like any other position and try to get talent there. Zeke and Gurley are NOT a dime a dozen.

Gurley is a very poor example.  The Rams did not miss a beat with CJ Anderson, who they picked up off the street.  Gurley might not be a dime a dozen, but he's about the sixth most important guy in that offense.  And I very much doubt an injury to Sony Michel would move the needle much for NE, even though he's a good back.   

Edited by mannc
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25 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Well before we traded him.  That happened in 2008 and he was traded in 2010.  He was fined 150 and had his license suspended.  No he was not intoxicated.

I don't know if anyone really knew if he was intoxicated or not but it would be reasonable to assume that he was.  Since he left the scene no one would know.  He also got a DWI shortly after being traded to Seattle.  The moral of the story is that I found him to be a difficult player to support.  

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On 1/25/2019 at 12:30 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

And don’t pay them big money.  I might be alone but I do think the Giants made the right choice with Barkley because I think he has HOF talent.  If they can get a good qb prospect this year, they will be loaded on offense.

You aren’t alone C- every so often a RB warrants that high of a pick- Barkley was the right choice and I am not a fan lf taking RB’s high in todays NFL.

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Here is a list of every Buffalo Bills RB draft pick who was taken *after* the second round going back to 1978. It is a truly sorry list. There is not one player among the 25 players selected who turned out to be a difference maker by any definition of the term. Sammy Morris was probably the best of the bunch and he ran for only 3000 yards in 12 seasons. Longtime backup, basically. Not one of the RBs listed below ever ran for 750 yards in a season. Anyway, while many teams have clearly found good RBs after round one, The Bills have a 40-year history of never finding one. 


2016: Jonathan Williams

2015: Karlos Williams

2011: Johnny White

2008: Xavier Omon

2007: Dwayne Wright

2005: Lionel Gates

2002: Jarrett Ferguson

2000: Sammy Morris
1999: Shawn Bryson

1998: Jonathan Linton

1996: Leon Neal

1995: Darick Holmes

1991: Amir Rasul

1990: Eddie Fuller

1989: Sean Doctor

1988: Bo Wright

1987: Jamie Mueller

1987: Kerry Porter

1986: Carl Byrum

1983: George Parker

1982: Van Williams

1981: Rob Riddick

1979: Mike Harris

1978: Dennis Johnson

1978: Steve Powell

Edited by dave mcbride
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1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Here is a list of every Buffalo Bills RB that wasn't drafted in the first two rounds going back to 1980. It is a truly sorry list. There is not one player among the 22 players selected who turned out to be a difference maker by any definition of the term. Sammy Morris was probably the best of the bunch and he ran for only 3000 yards in 12 seasons. Longtime backup, basically. Not one of the RBs listed below ever ran for 750 yards in a season. Anyway, while many teams have clearly found good RBs after round one, The Bills have a 40-year history of never finding one. 


2016: Jonathan Williams

2015: Karlos Williams

2011: Johnny White

2008: Xavier Omon

2007: Dwayne Wright

2005: Lionel Gates

2002: Jarrett Ferguson

2000: Sammy Morris
1999: Shawn Bryson

1998: Jonathan Linton

1996: Leon Neal

1995: Darick Holmes

1991: Amir Rasul

1990: Eddie Fuller

1989: Sean Doctor

1988: Bo Wright

1987: Jamie Mueller

1987: Kerry Porter

1986: Carl Byrum

1983: George Parker

1982: Van Williams

1981: Rob Riddick

 

Karlos was awesome (Whaley sucks) before he got stoned and fat.  I also remember some good Holmes’ moments.

 

but your point stands.  I do think those were some bad olines.  I think with a good oline and passing threat, rbs can be fairly interchangeable.

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