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This Is Why Spending Big $ For A RB Is Not Wise:


YodaMan79

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The 2017 draft class is more of an anomaly and still had a 50% hit rate.  Although I'd argue that Mixon would have been a 1st rounder if not for his college trangression.

 

But the Bills weren't going to take a RB within the 1st 4 rounds given Shady's excellent 2016 season.  Again finding a good player outside the first couple rounds is more luck than anything else.

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59 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

And don’t pay them big money.  I might be alone but I do think the Giants made the right choice with Barkley because I think he has HOF talent.  If they can get a good qb prospect this year, they will be loaded on offense.

 

I thought they should have gone QB since they were so high in the draft order.  It might work out for them if they can land their guy this year, but if they miss they could be in no-QB purgatory for a long time.

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1 hour ago, KD in CA said:

Unless you are getting OJ Simpson level 'can't miss' talent, drafting a RB in the first round is a huge mistake.  

 

Let's hope the Bills are so scared from the lost decade of drafting where they did this three times that they never do it again.

The Bill's problem wasnt that they drafted RBs in those drafts. They ended up getting very good players, the problem was they didnt keep them around and let them walk (or traded them) away when it came time to pay. It's not like they drafted guys that were complete busts with those picks.

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I agree that it's very unwise to pay Running Backs big money in Free Agency.

But not just because of the draft, or how successful teams are finding them in the mid-late rounds.

 

The main reason is that FA running backs are already close to passing - or have already passed - their prime.

 

The average Free Agent running back is 25-26 years old, and already has LOTS of wear and tear.  We are usually talking 2 years of heavy college usage, along with 3-4 years of heavy usage in the pros.  Numerous studies have been done on this, and have shown RBs peak around 24 years old and start declining around 28 years old.  And in most cases, it's not a gradual process.  A team doesn't get warning signs, so they can have a younger replacement ready to step in.  It's usually a sudden drop-off (like we got with Shady this year), where you are counting on the guy to produce and he just can't anymore.

 

By my count, there are only THREE starting RBs in the NFL who were obtained in Free Agency.  Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore and Lamar Miller.  You can bump the number to FIVE if you toss in LeSean McCoy and Marshawn Lynch - who were technically obtained through trades.  Either way, all of these veteran guys have seen better days.  Pretty much every other team is relying on younger guys, still on their rookie contracts. 

 

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Talented runners with some decent blocking in front of them are a dime a dozen at this level.

 

You can always just magically find one that is good enough.

 

Should not be something a team invests in.

 

 

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Agree with OP.  As pro game adds more RPO, single cut runs the running game looks more and more like college and the ability to plug and play a rookie with a proven RPO background is increased. Pass pro and receiving are skills that must be assessed to project 3 down capability.

 

I believe that RB is the easiest position to start a rookie at.

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I see zero harm in keeping McCoy and letting him finish out his contract year. With that said they do need to add some talent to the position and they could easily grab a decent back in say the 5th and ease him in to take over for McCoy. 

Now dropping top dollar for say Bell or Hunt I would think is silly, to me anyways those are not elite runners and more scheme specific guys who had success in their former teams scheme. I don’t think bell has the same success on say Arizona or Miami. That would be a waste of resources in my opinion. 

If shady had multiple years left I would probably want him out after next season regardless but it doesn’t hurt to keep him this year. If people think he’s just done and ready to retire that’s insanity. He has some gas left in the tank but he’s not a top 10-15 running back anymore for sure 

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*Hunt will not command top dollar.  He's going to have to take a low guarantee, short term "show me deal".  Perfect for a team like the Bills, and I think good for Hunt.  A low tier media market could be what he needs to get back into the league, mentally.  If you keep McCoy, Hunt would be a nice 50/50 option early in the year, and as the season progresses you could phase the egotistical, washed up and locker room cancer out.  Players on the 90s teams did far worse than Hunt, and they're now lauded, so please spare me the moral high ground position.  

Edited by YodaMan79
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6 hours ago, YodaMan79 said:

The 2017 RB draft class looks to be one for the ages.  It begs the question, why would you wants the Bills to tie up large money in a FA or McCoy?  The way the front office has been able to grab talent and value in the later rounds leads me to believe they could find really good RBs from Rd 3 on.  I grabbed this from Bill Barnwell of ESPN.  I didn't realize how great this class really was.  Carson in the 7th?  Wow. 

 

 

And the highest paid RB, Todd Gurley, has arguably lead his team to a Super Bowl.

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8 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

And the highest paid RB, Todd Gurley, has arguably lead his team to a Super Bowl.

 

Can't tell if you're being sarcastic, or opening yourself up to a lot of ridicule?  Hopefully sarcastic...

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1 hour ago, YodaMan79 said:

*Hunt will not command top dollar.  He's going to have to take a low guarantee, short term "show me deal".  Perfect for a team like the Bills, and I think good for Hunt.  A low tier media market could be what he needs to get back into the league, mentally.  If you keep McCoy, Hunt would be a nice 50/50 option early in the year, and as the season progresses you could phase the egotistical, washed up and locker room cancer out.  Players on the 90s teams did far worse than Hunt, and they're now lauded, so please spare me the moral high ground position.  

 

:lol:

 

:rolleyes:

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