dave mcbride Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, ILBillsfan said: f those playoff OT games both teams had an opportunity to score and defenses actually prevented them form doing so. its not total possessions it does a team have the chance to score in OT and since both teams did possess the ball they both had opportunities to win. Again they also had 60m to in the chiefs game score some pts in the first half case closed. Stop three third and long situation's case closed Stop cherry picking data to try to say OT is flawed its fine I'm cherry picking data? Come on. The data is exactly as I've shown it: 67 percent of the time, the coin flip winner wins the game, and 43 percent of the time he does it in a first round knockout in a quarter that's ostensibly 15 minutes. I'm doing the opposite of cherry picking here. You don't offer any evidence yourself except cliches about "stopping them on D." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILBillsfan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: I'm cherry picking data? Come on. The data is exactly as I've shown it: 67 percent of the time, the coin flip winner wins the game, and 43 percent of the time he does it in a first round knockout in a quarter that's ostensibly 15 minutes. I'm doing the opposite of cherry picking here. You don't offer any evidence yourself except cliches about "stopping them on D." nine of the 21 teams winning the coin flip won on the first possession that is it........... by you adding they eventually won you are inflating the numbers so yeah your cherry picking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 (edited) 17 minutes ago, ILBillsfan said: nine of the 21 teams winning the coin flip won on the first possession that is it........... by you adding they eventually won you are inflating the numbers so yeah your cherry picking Huh? Seriously. My point -- and my only point, really -- is that winning the coin toss bestows an inarguable advantage to a team. Even if they don't score on the opening possession -- an again, a 43 percent opening-drive score rate is high -- they still end up with an advantage because mathematically they're more likely to end up with more possessions than their opponent overall and hence more opportunities to exploit weaknesses of a tired defense. Equally important, look at the recent trend line. 4 out of the last 5 games (80 percent) have ended with a first round knockout. Coincidentally, rules changes that favor the offense have gone into effect in that same period. In the regular season, teams that win the toss win 52.7 percent of the time, which is not insignificant (think of a baseball team that goes 85-76). In the postseason, though, where the quarterbacks are generally better (and playing in a rules system that is increasingly friendly to good QBs), it goes up to .667 percent, which is obviously very high. The team that gets it first in postseason OTs is also working with a 43 percent chance of delivering a knockout blow with no possibility of a response. Again, that's really high. It's not as if the opponent is going to score 100 percent of the time after making a stop (not even close, actually). The fact that 8 out of the last 9 wins have gone to the coin flip winner should register with people, but apparently it's not. Edited January 22, 2019 by dave mcbride 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Figster Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: Huh? Seriously. My point -- and my only point, really -- is that winning the coin toss bestows an inarguable advantage to a team. Even if they don't score on the opening possession -- an again, a 43 percent opening-drive score rate is high -- they still end up with an advantage because mathematically they're more likely to end up with more possessions than their opponent overall and hence more opportunities to exploit weaknesses of a tired defense. Equally important, look at the recent trend line. 4 out of the last 5 games (80 percent) have ended with a first round knockout. Coincidentally, rules changes that favor the offense have gone into effect in that same period. In the regular season, teams that win the toss win 52.7 percent of the time, which is not insignificant (think of a baseball team that goes 85-76). In the postseason, though, where the quarterbacks are generally better, it goes up to .667 percent, which is obviously very high. The team that gets it first in postseason OTs is also working with a 43 percent chance of delivering a knockout blow with no possibility of a response. Again, that's really high. It's not as if the opponent is going to score 100 percent of the time after making a stop (not even close, actually). The fact that out of the last 9 wins have gone to the coin flip winner should register with people, but apparently it's not. Good argument dave, thanks for the time and effort buddy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prickly Pete Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 (edited) 3 hours ago, Figster said: true that MJS, You would however agree both Mahomes and Brady in all likelihood was going to score on their 1st possession in OT, and probably a TD with the knowledge a TD ends the game. Smart HC's with elite QB's have a huge advantage winning the coin toss in OT in my humble opinion. Smart HCs and elite QBs always have huge advantage..... throughout the entire game. That's why they win. Edited January 22, 2019 by OJ Tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Figster Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, OJ Tom said: Smart HCs and elite QBs always have huge advantage..... throughout the entire game. That's why they win. true that, Its also something most teams normally have that go deep into the playofs IMO. Good coaching, franchise QB's 3 hours ago, dave mcbride said: OK, here goes. This is for the postseason only because I want to focus on good teams, and just for games in the past 25 years, going back to the 1994 season (i can't find game logs from 1995 and earlier). I've bolded the winners who got the ball first and won, and bolded and underlined the teams that got the ball first and scored on the opening drive. 1998 -ATL/MN: Minnesota gets ball first but ATL eventually wins. 2000: Miami/Indy: Miami gets ball first, but doesn't score; Indy misses a FG; Miami then scores and wins. 2001: NE/Oakland: NE gets ball first and scores; wins on first possession. 2002: TN/Pitts: TN gets ball first and scores; wins on first possession. 2003 - GB/SEA: Seattle gets ball first, but GB wins. 2003: Carolina/STL: Carolina gets ball first but doesn't score; eventually wins in double OT 2003: GB/Philly: Philly gets ball first but doesn't score; eventually wins on second possession after a Favre INT. 2004 - SD/Jets; SD gets ball first; but Jets win (SD misses a FG on their second possession). 2006 - Chi/Seattle: Seattle gets ball first but doesn't score; Bears win. 2007 - GB/NYG: Packers get ball first but turn it over; Giants win. 2008 - SD/Colts: SD gets ball first; scores on first drive and wins. 2009 - GB/AZ: GB gets ball first; strip sacked fumble return TD for AZ; AZ wins 2009: NO/MN: Saints get ball first and score on first drive; win. 2011 - Den/Pitt: Den gets ball first; score on first play from scrimmage and win. 2011 - NYG/SF: Giants get ball first but don't score; they do eventually win, however. 2012: Den/Bal: Ravens get ball first but don't score; eventually win in double OT. 2014: Seattle/GB: Seahawks get ball first and score on opening possession to win. 2015: AZ/GB: Arizona gets the ball first and scores on first possession; wins. 2016 - NE/ATL: NE gets ball first and scores on opening drive to win. 2018: NE/KC: NE gets ball first and scores on opening drive to win. 2018: NO/LA: NO gets ball first but LA wins. -- My takeaways: 1) In four of the last five postseason games, the team that won the toss scored on their first possession. There's a trend going on of late. Perhaps it's a function of the recent rule changes that favor the offense? 2) The overall record of teams that get the ball first is 14-7. This is important because by starting first and going last, it means they get an extra possession -- always one more than their opponent. In the last 9 OT playoff games, 8 of the teams that received the ball first won. 3) In 9 out of 21 games, the team that won the toss won on their first possession alone. That is a REALLY high rate. Let me bump this post up to the next page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I totally understand the reason why people are mad. I just don't agree. I like overtime how it is. If your defense is getting victimized on the first drive of overtime and you lose the game, then get a better defense. The Chiefs have had a bad defense all year and ultimately their bad defense lost them the game in overtime. And that's the price we pay for having an offensive league. The big money goes to the offense and teams focus on building great offenses. The problem is not with OT rules, it is with teams not focusing enough money or effort on building elite defenses (and rule changes hampering them). I don't agree with the sentiment that each team needs to have a fair shot on offense and both teams need an equal number of offensive possessions. That, again, lessens the importance of defense. Both teams are on the field 100% of the time. Both teams have 11 guys on the field at all times. Defenses can make big plays too. If they aren't doing that, then too bad for them. Better luck next time. Better yet, beat them in regulation and don't risk the coin flip in OT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Figster Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 (edited) 22 minutes ago, MJS said: I totally understand the reason why people are mad. I just don't agree. I like overtime how it is. If your defense is getting victimized on the first drive of overtime and you lose the game, then get a better defense. The Chiefs have had a bad defense all year and ultimately their bad defense lost them the game in overtime. And that's the price we pay for having an offensive league. The big money goes to the offense and teams focus on building great offenses. The problem is not with OT rules, it is with teams not focusing enough money or effort on building elite defenses (and rule changes hampering them). I don't agree with the sentiment that each team needs to have a fair shot on offense and both teams need an equal number of offensive possessions. That, again, lessens the importance of defense. Both teams are on the field 100% of the time. Both teams have 11 guys on the field at all times. Defenses can make big plays too. If they aren't doing that, then too bad for them. Better luck next time. Better yet, beat them in regulation and don't risk the coin flip in OT. Probably about as good an argument as you can make MJS, and its not like both teams don't have a 50/50 shot at winning the coin toss. We're not die hard Chiefs fan though, so its allot easier for us to say stop being a bunch of cry babies and get over it. Myself personally , I would prefer OT in the playoffs to be as close as you can get to a game ending in regulation. Adding an extra quarter would suffice in my humble opinion. Edited January 22, 2019 by Figster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 The current rules are fine, a TD is a significant score to give up. It was a travesty under the old rules where a field goal on the first possession would end the game. A field goal is a partial victory for the defense and thus giving up one on the opening possession is not sufficient enough to make a game end without the other team having the ball. The current rules are fine, don't give up a TD ever, if you give up a field goal that's a partial defensive victory, that should not on the first possession end the game. Also OP the Saints possessed the ball in OT and they turned it over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turk71 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 53 minutes ago, billsfan89 said: The current rules are fine, a TD is a significant score to give up. It was a travesty under the old rules where a field goal on the first possession would end the game. A field goal is a partial victory for the defense and thus giving up one on the opening possession is not sufficient enough to make a game end without the other team having the ball. The current rules are fine, don't give up a TD ever, if you give up a field goal that's a partial defensive victory, that should not on the first possession end the game. Also OP the Saints possessed the ball in OT and they turned it over. Why is the onus of preventing a td only on one team, the one who loses the coin flip? However important playing good defense is, there is definitely an advantage to winning the toss and not having to play any defense whatsoever in ot. That much should be obvious to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 55 minutes ago, Turk71 said: Why is the onus of preventing a td only on one team, the one who loses the coin flip? However important playing good defense is, there is definitely an advantage to winning the toss and not having to play any defense whatsoever in ot. That much should be obvious to anyone. That's a fair point however there will almost always be the possibility that one team will have the ball more unless you always give the other team the chance to respond even after 3 or more possessions. If lets say you win the coin toss score a TD, then the other team gets a possession scores a TD, and the team that won the toss scores again does the game end? If so one team got an additional possession. I think you could make an argument in the post season maybe there should be last licks. But in the regular season in the interest of avoiding ties and additional injuries I think the current system is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 10 hours ago, dave mcbride said: 2011 - Den/Pitt: Den gets ball first; score on first play from scrimmage and win. Tebow time!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turk71 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 44 minutes ago, billsfan89 said: That's a fair point however there will almost always be the possibility that one team will have the ball more unless you always give the other team the chance to respond even after 3 or more possessions. If lets say you win the coin toss score a TD, then the other team gets a possession scores a TD, and the team that won the toss scores again does the game end? If so one team got an additional possession. I think you could make an argument in the post season maybe there should be last licks. But in the regular season in the interest of avoiding ties and additional injuries I think the current system is fine. I agree with the 2nd paragraph except only one possession each in regular season guaranteed and equal possessions until a winner in postseason sounds reasonable. No one would think that the shootout in hockey was fair unless each team gets equal opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 57 minutes ago, Turk71 said: I agree with the 2nd paragraph except only one possession each in regular season guaranteed and equal possessions until a winner in postseason sounds reasonable. No one would think that the shootout in hockey was fair unless each team gets equal opportunity. I have no issue in the regular season an offense not seeing the field if a defense yields a TD, its the regular season, get these teams off the field on reasonable terms. I am coming more around to the idea of a post season last licks system but I do not think the current system is as big a travesty as it was when teams would stop trying to score after getting into the redzone in order to preserve a field goal opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formerlyofCtown Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 (edited) On 1/20/2019 at 11:15 PM, BuffaloButt said: The OT rule needs to change giving the other team an opportunity to match a TD scored. Falcons & Chiefs both lost due to a fricken coin toss! They also lost due to not being able to stop the other team from scoring. Maybe Teams should also have to play an additional 16 games to decide a tie-breaker for a wildcard birth. OTs only purpose is to break a tie. Im more concerned with phantom calls then OT rules. I dont think the game should have ever been in OT. Edited January 23, 2019 by formerlyofCtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlottebillsfan2 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Its the playoffs, you play a 15 minute quarter. If after the quarter your still tied you play another 15 minutes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Figster Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 (edited) 5 hours ago, Charlottebillsfan2 said: Its the playoffs, you play a 15 minute quarter. If after the quarter your still tied you play another 15 minutes. Seems like a no brainer to me. Overtime with the chance to go to the Superbowl and one team never touches the football. Good grief, how sad can you get. Play another quarter, its an easy fix... Edited January 23, 2019 by Figster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabattBlue Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Go back to sudden death. You don't win the coin flip, then play defense and force the other team to punt. If not, you lose...even on a FG. I don't like the way they do it now, let alone making additional changes so that it is "fair" to the team that can't stop anyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 19 minutes ago, LabattBlue said: Go back to sudden death. You don't win the coin flip, then play defense and force the other team to punt. If not, you lose...even on a FG. I don't like the way they do it now, let alone making additional changes so that it is "fair" to the team that can't stop anyone. the whiners and crybabies would never agree to that they just want the game to keep going until their team is ahead on the scoreboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 11:15 PM, BuffaloButt said: The OT rule needs to change giving the other team an opportunity to match a TD scored. Falcons & Chiefs both lost due to a fricken coin toss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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