Startling Star statistic

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Got it.  They had a choice.  You can argue about whether it would have been possible to build a winner just moving forward with what McD inherited.  I really dont know.  

 

On another point, good discussion about how significant second I. total yards really is.  I like the points about DVOA and passer rating.  Those are two gos measures of how effective the D really was.  My impression was that the offense struggled so that badly that the defense simply couldn't win games alone.  A decent offense with that defense would have won a.bumch of games. 

 

O line has to perform this season.  And Allen.  And Daboll. 

 

Well, 3 of our losses were decided by 7 or less points (7, 4, and 4).  In 2 of those close losses (and in 2 wins) the offense scored less than 20 points; in the third, 23 points.

 

It's really hard to win football games consistently when your offense can't be counted on for at least 20 points.

 

On the other hand, the D did get its a** handed to it a few times in blowouts, giving up more than 30 pts 4 times, and that wasn't all lack of offense and offensive miscues (some were: example the Colts and Bears games were turnover monstrosities)

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

#2 in defensive DVOA, which is a lot more important than the counting stats (to me, at least).  The key driver in that was the fact that opposing QBs had a collective passer rating of 82.6, which is REALLY low in this day and age (3rd in the league behind Baltimore and Chicago:  http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=PASSING_PASSER_RATING&tabSeq=2&season=2018&role=OPP&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=TEAM_PASSING&qualified=false).  Team passer rating differential is the king of all stats, but the issue for the Bills is that their own team passer rating was a hilariously low 62.6. It's hard to be that bad. Even Arizona's historically awful offense had a team rating of 69.0. 

The Bills' D was 3rd in net yards per passing attempt and 10th in yards given up per rush. Pretty good across the board relative to the rest of the league ... 

 

 

Ok so the pass defense was the driver and that was so good because of............the contributions of Star?

 

Let's not get that far off topic.

 

And don't talk down the Bills passing offense like that..........didn't you hear that the dynamic duo of John Brown and Cole Beasley were brought in!    Worst to first!   And no fux given on WR's in the past two drafts!

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Ok so the pass defense was the driver and that was so good because of............the contributions of Star?

 

Let's not get that far off topic.

 

And don't talk down the Bills passing offense like that..........didn't you hear that the dynamic duo of John Brown and Cole Beasley were brought in!    Worst to first!   And no fux given on WR's in the past two drafts!

?? - Don’t make stuff up.  I never said that about Star or anything close to it. I was making a general comment about the defense after a few people threw out dumb raw yardage stats without context. It had nothing to do with Star, who — if you actually read my multiple posts above (seriously) — I said wasn’t good enough last season. You’re better than that, or at least should be.

 

 

Edited May 1, 2019 by dave mcbride

[billsfan89]

Star's deal was back loaded to have a bigger cap hit in year 2 and 3 because last off-season the team did not have a lot of cap room and they wanted to bring him in. That being said Star is overpaid but still has value to the team. Star is a grinder and does a lot of things needed out of a DT in this scheme. Yes the team could have found that role cheaper but McD knew that Star could pull off that role. I don't like the contract but Star being overpaid doesn't mean he doesn't have value for the team. 

[BADOLBILZ]

31 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

?? - Don’t make stuff up.  I never said that about Star or anything close to it. I was making a general comment about the defense after a few people threw out dumb raw yardage stats without context. It had nothing to do with Star, who — if you actually read my multiple posts above (seriously) — I said wasn’t good enough last season. You’re better than that, or at least should be.

 

 

 

Your response to my post about the Bills red zone defense issues and how they pertained to Star..............was to talk about stats driven by their pass defense efficiency.?

 

Bills were the 3rd worst defense at preventing TD's in the red zone.

 

Having to take your highest paid defensive player off the field on 3rd downs AND inside the 20 is not good.

 

I guess you thought it was a time to monologue about something I wasn't arguing about........hence me imploring you to stay on point..........you are better than that........or at least you should be.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

3) Hyde on Brandon Reilly:

 

"I feel like he's that (Adam) Thielen from Minnesota type guy," Hyde said. "He doesn't look like he's going to beat you over the top. He doesn't look like he's going to go up and get a ball on you. But when that ball is thrown, he's going to make plays."

 

Are we clear about the value of quotes from players about teammates?

 

You asked about Hyde's quote on Peterman, not Hyde's quote on Brandon Reilly. 

 

I clarified elsewhere: the point I take from the player/coach quotes is not one player's valuation of another player's contribution (which may be suspect - players don't like to throw each other under the bus, sho 'nuff) but whatever information there may be about the player's expected role in the scheme.  A defensive player's quote about an offensive player's comparable guy neither endorses nor refutes this point.

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You asked about Hyde's quote on Peterman, not Hyde's quote on Brandon Reilly. 

 

I clarified elsewhere: the point I take from the player/coach quotes is not one player's valuation of another player's contribution (which may be suspect - players don't like to throw each other under the bus, sho 'nuff) but whatever information there may be about the player's expected role in the scheme.  A defensive player's quote about an offensive player's comparable guy neither endorses nor refutes this point.

 

 

Enough said.........another goal post moved..........bravo!

 

We shan't be having anymore football discussions Hap.  

 

Ciao!   

[dave mcbride]

8 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Your response to my post about the Bills red zone defense issues and how they pertained to Star..............was to talk about stats driven by their pass defense efficiency.?

 

Bills were the 3rd worst defense at preventing TD's in the red zone.

 

Having to take your highest paid defensive player off the field on 3rd downs AND inside the 20 is not good.

 

I guess you thought it was a time to monologue about something I wasn't arguing about........hence me imploring you to stay on point..........you are better than that........or at least you should be.

? 

 

I was actually responding to the dialogue about numbers between you and Hapless. However, believe what you want. 

Edited May 1, 2019 by dave mcbride

[BADOLBILZ]

41 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

? 

 

I was actually responding to the dialogue about numbers between you and Hapless. However, believe what you want. 

 

 

Then it was the wrong post to be responding too because that one was about red zone defense.

 

Nobody is saying the Bills defense wasn't good.

 

Now if you are talking about my point regarding the yardage stats being somewhat skewed by opponents having the best starting field % in the NFL..........well that's just common sense.

 

There are an average of 12 drives per game..........if you give away 3-5 yards of field position every time that's 36-60 yards of less territory that you CAN give up in a game.   Spread that over 16 games and it makes a significant difference in your defensive ranking wrt yardage stats.

 

Star plays the 1TDT.......the one position in the front that can be doubled by 2 of the 5 OL without putting lineman in motion.     The 3TDT is way off on the guards outside shoulder.

 

This funnels the run to the open gap inside between the two DT's.   That's OK for a Reggie Ragnuts type or even a Preston Brown type ILB but in this defense the MLB also has significant pass drop responsibilities so your 1 tech has to be able to stack, shed and get involved in tackles so you can afford to have a more athletic type there instead of a thumper.  

 

 IMO.......Edmunds struggled last year but I also think Star wasn't keeping him as clean as needed.   Star just wasn't what he used to be.   He wasn't getting off blocks or breaking up the occasional play by splitting the double team.

 

I see people trying to make the argument that Star "must have been drawing double teams"...........well no sh*t.........that's the nature of where he lines up and minimum requirement.........you don't need Lorenzo Alexander to tell you that.........the problem is that isn't the only responsibility he has.   At one time he was great at that position.   But he was not as good as he had been toward the end in Carolina........and last year he fell off a lot.     

Edited May 1, 2019 by BADOLBILZ

[Chris66]

Bills were 2nd in yards and I believe 19th in points allowed.

Translation gave up a good amount of points on a short field

[JerseyBills]

18 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I'm sure he was.  He is also needed to fill the role he plays in McDermott's D.  It is by definition a thankless job.

I also have speculated that when Edmunds was drafted (and was struggling some) that McDermott would of wanted Star to keep

Tremaine as clean as possible.  How well Star and Edmunds play together will be very important this year.

This is what people seem to forget about Star - that he's a crucial piece to Mcd's defense on run downs and imo does a fantastic job at playing his role, which like you said, is a thankless role.

He's a space eater, occupies multiple OL and allows those around him to make plays, we knew this when he was coming in, the run D did improve , but not as much as we'd like. I think Oliver for example will benefit a great deal from Star, and could see him having an immediate impact, spending alot of time in other teams backfields. 

Also, as pointed out already, his contract was front loaded, so if the Bills did want out next year or the following, it wouldn't be a big cap hit at all. 

I like Star more than most, but was taken back by him only being on the field under half the time. I see Oliver as an improvement over Kyle last year, and now we have Jordan Phillips for the whole year, who is great depth and can def step in and start if needed. Also watch out for Dirty Harry Phillips, he's my Breakout player of the year, i think he's a stud and will make a big leap with a year under his belt. So now there's even more talent next to Star at DT, and that is a very deep position imo. 

 Ultimately i feel Harry and Oliver will be our long term DT combo...

[Your Brown Eye]

I'm startled 

[BADOLBILZ]

27 minutes ago, Chris66 said:

Bills were 2nd in yards and I believe 19th in points allowed.

Translation gave up a good amount of points on a short field

 

That's definitely part of the discrepancy.

 

The defense was well coached and in the larger space of midfield the secondary was able to excel.

 

But inside the redzone they became utterly defenseless.........hence the stack of points.

 

That's where the inconsistency with regard to getting in the backfield really hurt and it's why they were shopping hard for Oliver and probably a DE.

[WideNine]

On 1/15/2019 at 10:45 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

Is a teammate going to say their teammate isn’t worth the money?  

 

Not sure where I sit with the Star signing.

 

Good player, but does not seem to be a fit for their 3T defensive tackle philosophy in a 4 man front who are normally expected to get up field rather than collect and absorb blockers. When you hear Frazier talk about him your brain thinks space eating NT... the guy is not slacking, on some All 22 reviews it is clear that he did occupy a lot of double-teams. 

 

It's a curious thing and I have to take a closer look at how they use him this year, where he lines up and with what personnel packages.

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Then it was the wrong post to be responding too because that one was about red zone defense.

 

Nobody is saying the Bills defense wasn't good.

 

Now if you are talking about my point regarding the yardage stats being somewhat skewed by opponents having the best starting field % in the NFL..........well that's just common sense.

 

There are an average of 12 drives per game..........if you give away 3-5 yards of field position every time that's 36-60 yards of less territory that you CAN give up in a game.   Spread that over 16 games and it makes a significant difference in your defensive ranking wrt yardage stats.

 

Star plays the 1TDT.......the one position in the front that can be doubled by 2 of the 5 OL without putting lineman in motion.     The 3TDT is way off on the guards outside shoulder.

 

This funnels the run to the open gap inside between the two DT's.   That's OK for a Reggie Ragnuts type or even a Preston Brown type ILB but in this defense the MLB also has significant pass drop responsibilities so your 1 tech has to be able to stack, shed and get involved in tackles so you can afford to have a more athletic type there instead of a thumper.  

 

 IMO.......Edmunds struggled last year but I also think Star wasn't keeping him as clean as needed.   Star just wasn't what he used to be.   He wasn't getting off blocks or breaking up the occasional play by splitting the double team.

 

I see people trying to make the argument that Star "must have been drawing double teams"...........well no sh*t.........that's the nature of where he lines up and minimum requirement.........you don't need Lorenzo Alexander to tell you that.........the problem is that isn't the only responsibility he has.   At one time he was great at that position.   But he was not as good as he had been toward the end in Carolina........and last year he fell off a lot.     

I don't disagree about the yardage stat being a little skewed. The other thing that skews the yardage stat was the fact the Bills offense was so pathetic that teams really didn't need to press after building up a 20-3 lead or whatever early in the second half. 

 

I'm not sure if you're arguing with me about Star, because I don't disagree with you that he needed to be better (as I stated above). The strength of the Bills D is not him, but a very, very well coached and well-gameplanned pass defense (from secondary guys to LBs to d-line) that has given a lot of good QBs fits. Not every game, mind you; Rivers sliced and diced us a couple of times over two seasons, and Luck shredded us too. But Brady struggled in both games last season, as did many other decent-to-good QBs. 

Re Star's future, it is the case that he dropped off in years 2 and 3 after a great rookie season, but he was really good in year 4. So who knows? Guys get dinged up all the time and we don't hear about it. Maybe he'll raise his game to the next level in 2019. He's too young for age-related decline to have set in; run-stuffing DTs tend to play for a long time.

Edited May 1, 2019 by dave mcbride

[Boca BIlls]

On 1/15/2019 at 11:45 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

Is a teammate going to say their teammate isn’t worth the money?  

They can just say something simple, instead they went into detail about specifically how he helps the guys around him.

[teef]

this thread got a bit spicy.

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I don't disagree about the yardage stat being a little skewed. The other thing that skews the yardage stat was the fact the Bills offense was so pathetic that teams really didn't need to press after building up a 20-3 lead or whatever early in the second half. 

 

I'm not sure if you're arguing with me about Star, because I don't disagree with you that he needed to be better (as I stated above). The strength of the Bills D is not him, but a very, very well coached and well-gameplanned pass defense (from secondary guys to LBs to d-line) that has given a lot of good QBs fits. Not every game, mind you; Rivers sliced and diced us a couple of times over two seasons, and Luck shredded us too. But Brady struggled in both games last season, as did many other decent-to-good QBs. 

 

Right the key is the execution of the gameplan.   There was a great thread on here a week or so ago about the matchup zone techniques the Bills use.   That works right now.  McD has elevated some DB's with it.    In the middle of the field it's effective.   Until they get into the redzone when the physical matchups matter so much more.  

[BADOLBILZ]

30 minutes ago, Boca BIlls said:

They can just say something simple, instead they went into detail about specifically how he helps the guys around him.

 

 

It was actually something simple and vague.    The way the front is aligned the position Star plays is usually the only guy that the OL can double without putting lineman in motion.  And the positioning of the 1T is such that it makes it hard for either the center or guard to prevent penetration right in front of the QB without getting help from the other.

 

Not that a pass rusher like Lorax doesn't appreciate the fact that someone else is taking on the double team task in the defense.....but it was lip service like 99% of what players tell the media about their teammates.