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transplantbillsfan

Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

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5 hours ago, Foxx said:

lol. 

 

baselessly huh?

 

it is ill conceived because it doesn't matter, one iota.

 

the only thing and i repeat... the only thing that matters is the completion percentage, period. it is an accurate gauge of what a QB is doing.

 

explain it all away anyway you like... 

it.

doesn't.

matter.

 

Completion percentage is what correlates most with team success, but because so many factors go into completion percentage separate from actual QB accuracy--QB & WR communication, WRs ability to catch, tips and batted passes, Throwaways and Spikes, QB decision making, etc--this actually does matter in terms of the conversation as to how to increase that completion percentage.

 

And I'd bet you anything Beane & Co. analyzed the tape for the purpose of having the very same conversation.

 

Notice how offense-heavy we went this offseason?

 

Start off by cutting our least reliable pass catcher over the year and then go out and get one proven speedster WR and another who was 4th in the league last year (pretty sure that's right) in catching balls on plays he was targeted.

 

Then you bolster the crap outta your OL so that you give your young QB time and Windows to make good decisions and throw the ball.

 

It matters in the grand scheme of our current year 1 to year 2 conversation because all any of us want to see is a successful Allen. 

 

The point, really, is that his distance from rookie QB to Franchise QB isn't greater than that distance is for the typical rookie QB as far as passing accuracy goes.

 

It matters in this grand offseason sports message board conversation we have. Of course, since you're here on this sports message board, I assume you believe this grand offseason sports message board conversation we have every year is meaningful.

 

And if you don't, why don't you go fishing in an actual body of water rather than on the Internet until the season starts?

 

5 hours ago, Foxx said:

 

who gives a ***** what anyone outside of Bills nation thinks? i like Allen a lot and think he is the best shot we have had at the QB position (as evidenced by my jersey purchase) since Kelly. that doesn't mean he is however.

 

believe it or not trans, i like you. i just know your track record and how horrible it has been at judging QBs. it is with that forethought that i can't help but be extremely skeptical of any analysis you dream up. you did the same for ... how many other Bills QBs that were not the answer?

 

And I like you. 

 

I get some right. I get some wrong.

 

I feel good about Allen.

 

If you need to calm your mind somehow, just remember that even broken clocks are right twice a day  :thumbsup:

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8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Completion percentage is what correlates most with team success

 

Just an FYI: 5 of the top 12 teams in regular-season team completion %age did not make the playoffs in 2018.

 

On the contrary, the passing stat that seems to matter most is YPA.  For contextual purposes, 9 of the top 13 teams in team YPA made the playoffs in 2018.

 

You could also make the argument that Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt has the highest correlation, since 10 of the top 13 teams in team ANYA made the playoffs in 2018.

 

In the end, what matters is this: can the QB make the throw he needs to make when he needs to make it? 

 

If we're attempting to address that question, then I think that there are a handful of examples that would support the idea that Allen can indeed make the critical throw, and slightly fewer examples that would support the idea that he can't.

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4 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

In the end, what matters is this: can the QB make the throw he needs to make when he needs to make it? 

 

BINGO.  This is why Tyrod's stats were so deceiving.  Stats are nice and can be pretty (or not).  Situational stats are what matter most.

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4 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Just an FYI: 5 of the top 12 teams in regular-season team completion %age did not make the playoffs in 2018.

 

On the contrary, the passing stat that seems to matter most is YPA.  For contextual purposes, 9 of the top 13 teams in team YPA made the playoffs in 2018.

 

You could also make the argument that Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt has the highest correlation, since 10 of the top 13 teams in team ANYA made the playoffs in 2018.

 

In the end, what matters is this: can the QB make the throw he needs to make when he needs to make it? 

 

If we're attempting to address that question, then I think that there are a handful of examples that would support the idea that Allen can indeed make the critical throw, and slightly fewer examples that would support the idea that he can't.

Interesting.  Just a couple things:

 

1) none under 60% made it.  I would like to know in recent years how many under 60% have made the playoffs.

 

2) Allen was 2nd last in ypa and AYPA.  So obviously there’s work to be down. 

 

But you cant be captain checkdown but you also have to be over 60%.  It really does matter.  

34 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

BINGO.  This is why Tyrod's stats were so deceiving.  Stats are nice and can be pretty (or not).  Situational stats are what matter most.

Tyrod won’t lose you games but he won’t win them for you either.  It’s basically the Alex Smith probably.  You can do a lot worse but you are limited with Smith and Taylor. 

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6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Interesting.  Just a couple things:

 

1) none under 60% made it.  I would like to know in recent years how many under 60% have made the playoffs.

 

 

Would you like to know? Because that's not a difficult thing to look up :lol:

 

I know that both Bortles and Wentz were at 60.2% in 2017, and both went to conference championship games.

 

I also know that Cam Newton was NFL MVP and took the Panthers to the Super Bowl in 2015 while completing 59.8% of his passes. His team lost in the Super Bowl to the Broncos and Peyton Manning, who completed 59.8% of his passes that year.

 

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

2) Allen was 2nd last in ypa and AYPA.  So obviously there’s work to be down. 

 

But you cant be captain checkdown but you also have to be over 60%.  It really does matter.  

 

 

The actual percentage doesn't matter at all.  Points are not awarded for completion percentage. Scoring TDs and ending the game with more points than your opponent matters.

 

Again, the key factor isn't whether or not Allen completes a certain percentage of passes. It's whether or not he can make the throw he needs to make, when he needs to make it. Tom Brady won 2 of his first 3 Super Bowls completing less than 61% of his passes.

 

Joe Flacco won the Super Bowl in a season where he completed 59.7% of his passes.

 

The point here is that there's no benchmark that a QB has to hit in order to be officially able to win games. I'm pretty sure that fans would be elated if the team went 11-5 and Allen completed only 54% of his passes (sort of like Andrew Luck as a rookie).

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29 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Interesting.  Just a couple things:

 

1) none under 60% made it.  I would like to know in recent years how many under 60% have made the playoffs.

 

2) Allen was 2nd last in ypa and AYPA.  So obviously there’s work to be down. 

 

But you cant be captain checkdown but you also have to be over 60%.  It really does matter.  

Tyrod won’t lose you games but he won’t win them for you either.  It’s basically the Alex Smith probably.  You can do a lot worse but you are limited with Smith and Taylor. 

Yes, yes he did absolutely lose games with his refusal to throw the ball. This, Tyrod won't lose you games is bunk! Refusing to throw the ball and score points has a negative outcome on games and therefor games were lost as a result. Tyrod lost games other QBs would have won, so yes he did lose games. 

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5 minutes ago, pop gun said:

Yes, yes he did absolutely lose games with his refusal to throw the ball. This, Tyrod won't lose you games is bunk! Refusing to throw the ball and score points has a negative outcome on games and therefor games were lost as a result. Tyrod lost games other QBs would have won, so yes he did lose games. 

Tyrod's number one deficiency was his utter refusal to throw the football! 

 

It's also directly linked to his ridiculous ability to not turn the ball over.  His style of game was so conservative of course it lent itself to low turnovers.

 

1 game we can all remember in which Tyrod straight up "lost us the game" is the playoff game against Jacksonville.

 

That game was extremely winnable and Blake Bortles' performance was freaking atrocious.  

 

And yet Tyrod could not move the ball or put points on the board to save his ass.

 

 

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4 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Would you like to know? Because that's not a difficult thing to look up :lol:

 

I know that both Bortles and Wentz were at 60.2% in 2017, and both went to conference championship games.

 

I also know that Cam Newton was NFL MVP and took the Panthers to the Super Bowl in 2015 while completing 59.8% of his passes. His team lost in the Super Bowl to the Broncos and Peyton Manning, who completed 59.8% of his passes that year.

 

 

The actual percentage doesn't matter at all.  Points are not awarded for completion percentage. Scoring TDs and ending the game with more points than your opponent matters.

 

Again, the key factor isn't whether or not Allen completes a certain percentage of passes. It's whether or not he can make the throw he needs to make, when he needs to make it. Tom Brady won 2 of his first 3 Super Bowls completing less than 61% of his passes.

 

Joe Flacco won the Super Bowl in a season where he completed 59.7% of his passes.

 

The point here is that there's no benchmark that a QB has to hit in order to be officially able to win games. I'm pretty sure that fans would be elated if the team went 11-5 and Allen completed only 54% of his passes (sort of like Andrew Luck as a rookie).

1) I was at work and hoping someone can do the work for me

 

2). Does anyone think Flacco  was  reason the Ravens won the Sb?

 

3) touché on that Luck season.  Didn’t realize he was so low.  He also threw 300 more passes than Allen that year and averaged more than 100 more yards passing.  But point taken.

 

but the overwhelming data, in today’s nfl, you aren’t making the playoffs with a sub 60% passer unless you have an elite defense.

3 hours ago, pop gun said:

Yes, yes he did absolutely lose games with his refusal to throw the ball. This, Tyrod won't lose you games is bunk! Refusing to throw the ball and score points has a negative outcome on games and therefor games were lost as a result. Tyrod lost games other QBs would have won, so yes he did lose games. 

My point was more that he won’t single handedly lose a game like Nate Peterman.  Peterman murdered the Bills.  

 

Trust me, I wasn’t the biggest Tyrod fan but he has a winning record as a starter.  Like Fitz could light up a team and win a game with his arm.  He also could threw 4 ints.  Tyrod, for better or worse, wasn’t going to be the sole reason you lose. 

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3 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Tyrod's number one deficiency was his utter refusal to throw the football! 

 

It's also directly linked to his ridiculous ability to not turn the ball over.  His style of game was so conservative of course it lent itself to low turnovers.

 

1 game we can all remember in which Tyrod straight up "lost us the game" is the playoff game against Jacksonville.

 

That game was extremely winnable and Blake Bortles' performance was freaking atrocious.  

 

And yet Tyrod could not move the ball or put points on the board to save his ass.

 

 

Yet somehow, we had a worse passing offense this year than any season with TT. So yeah, plenty of other QBs could have lose to the Jags that day. 

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11 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Interesting.  Just a couple things:

 

1) none under 60% made it.  I would like to know in recent years how many under 60% have made the playoffs.

 

2) Allen was 2nd last in ypa and AYPA.  So obviously there’s work to be down. 

 

But you cant be captain checkdown but you also have to be over 60%.  It really does matter.  

 

Yeah, I don't think we ever have to worry about Allen being Captain Checkdown.

 

The guy threw the ball like a yard farther on average more than any other QB in the NFL.

 

And with Allen's style of play, he can hover in the 58%-60% completion percentage range and still be very successful.

 

Not saying I want that or am even predicting that, but Cam Newton won an MVP at less than 60%.

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3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yeah, I don't think we ever have to worry about Allen being Captain Checkdown.

 

The guy threw the ball like a yard farther on average more than any other QB in the NFL.

 

And with Allen's style of play, he can hover in the 58%-60% completion percentage range and still be very successful.

 

Not saying I want that or am even predicting that, but Cam Newton won an MVP at less than 60%.

 

I mean I think you did predict him to be an MVP candidate in 2019 in another thread....

 

Cam's MVP year he was 59.8% and 99.4 Passer rating. So he was productive when he did complete balls. You can certainly be successful on those sorts of numbers - though I'm not sure if that is a basis for winning consistently. Cam himself is a bit up and down year to year on completion % and on passer rating. But you'd take Cam's first 8 years for Josh in all likelihood. 4 playoff years, a Superbowl appearance... I think most of us would probably sign for that.

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10 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) I was at work and hoping someone can do the work for me

 

2). Does anyone think Flacco  was  reason the Ravens won the Sb?

 

3) touché on that Luck season.  Didn’t realize he was so low.  He also threw 300 more passes than Allen that year and averaged more than 100 more yards passing.  But point taken.

 

but the overwhelming data, in today’s nfl, you aren’t making the playoffs with a sub 60% passer unless you have an elite defense.

 

Reads statistics. Defies results of said statistics because narrative.

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17 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Interesting.  Just a couple things:

 

1) none under 60% made it.  I would like to know in recent years how many under 60% have made the playoffs.

 

2) Allen was 2nd last in ypa and AYPA.  So obviously there’s work to be down. 

 

But you cant be captain checkdown but you also have to be over 60%.  It really does matter.  

Tyrod won’t lose you games but he won’t win them for you either.  It’s basically the Alex Smith probably.  You can do a lot worse but you are limited with Smith and Taylor. 

 

Comparing Tyrod Taylor to Alex Smith is silly.  And you really can't do a lot worse than Tyrod Taylor.

 

If the only passes a QB throws are no more than 3 yards in the air, I think it's fair to say that said QB's completion percentage would be higher than another QB who throws the ball downfield more.  A bunch of 5 yard completions on 3rd and 11 don't do crap.  But they'll make completion % stats pretty.

 

You keep comparing last year's offense, led by a rookie with very little talent around him - to the offenses of the three prior years.  It's not a fair comparison for a multitude of reasons.

 

Completion % is a silly stat to latch onto.  Ask Eli Manning what having his best completion % season of his career last season did for the offense and for him.

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Well I have finished week 6 of my study on incomplete passes.  I would attach the chart but for some reason that option is not available.  I will have to write them down I guess,  I'm just going to include the QB name and his responsibility %.  This reflects which QB's were hurt most by the players around them in terms of throwing incomplete passes.

 

1. Kirk Cousins - 30.4%

2. Josh Rosen - 35.9%
3. Josh Allen - 37.9%

4. Marcus Mariota - 38.1%

5. Andrew Luck - 38.6%

6. Baker Mayfield - 39.0%

7. Alex Smith - 39.1%

8. Jimmy Garoppolo - 39.3%

9. Philip Rivers - 39.7%

10. Joe Flaaco - 40.3%

11. Derek Carr - 40.5%

12. Andy Dalton - 41.1%

13. Russell Wilson - 41.6%

14. Carson Wentz - 41.7%

15. Case Keenum - 41.8%

16. Blaine Gabbert - 42.1%

17. Patrick Mahomes - 42.4%

18. Matt Ryan - 42.5%

19. Drew Brees - 42.6%

20. Aaron Rodgers - 43.2%

21. Matthew Stafford - 43.3%

22. Jameis Winston - 43.7%

23. Dak Prescott - 44.0%

24. Nick Foles - 45.3%

24. C.J. Beathard - 45.3%

26. Tom Brady - 46.4%

27. Jared Goff - 47.4%

28. Blake Bortles - 47.7%

28. Ryan Fitzpatrick - 47.7%

30. Ryan Tannehill - 49.8%

31. Tyrod Taylor - 50.0%

32. Sam Darnold - 50.3%

33. DeShaun Watson - 50.8%

34. Cam Newton - 52.9%

35. Eli Manning - 53.2%
36. Ben Roethlisberger - 54.9%

37. Nathan Peterman - 57.5%

38. Sam Bradford - 57.7%

39. Mitchell Trubisky - 62.8%

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6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean I think you did predict him to be an MVP candidate in 2019 in another thread....

 

 

I was talking about the 58%-60% completion percentage, not him being in the running for MVP.

 

I think his career completion percentage will be higher than 60%.

 

And yes, I still believe he's going to be in the running for league MVP this season.

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Just now, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I was talking about the 58%-60% completion percentage, not him being in the running for MVP.

 

I think his career completion percentage will be higher than 60%.

 

And yes, I still believe he's going to be in the running for league MVP this season.

 

Of course you do. I hope that one day one of your optimistic predictions comes true. It will be good for all of us.

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58 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Of course you do. I hope that one day one of your optimistic predictions comes true. It will be good for all of us.

 

It was:

 

...it might be--I think it will:

 

You're welcome. :thumbsup:

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21 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) I was at work and hoping someone can do the work for me

 

2). Does anyone think Flacco  was  reason the Ravens won the Sb?

 

3) touché on that Luck season.  Didn’t realize he was so low.  He also threw 300 more passes than Allen that year and averaged more than 100 more yards passing.  But point taken.

 

but the overwhelming data, in today’s nfl, you aren’t making the playoffs with a sub 60% passer unless you have an elite defense.

My point was more that he won’t single handedly lose a game like Nate Peterman.  Peterman murdered the Bills.  

 

 

Flacco was absolutely the reason the Ravens won the Super Bowl...

 

were you actually paying attention to that historic run he had in the playoffs?

 

0 interceptions.

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18 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Flacco was absolutely the reason the Ravens won the Super Bowl...

 

were you actually paying attention to that historic run he had in the playoffs?

 

0 interceptions.

 

Yea he wasn't the reason they made the playoffs though. He had a reasonably pedestrian season but then a brilliant post-season. Flacco has always been a better big game Quarterback than a regular game QB though in fairness. 

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18 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Flacco was absolutely the reason the Ravens won the Super Bowl...

 

were you actually paying attention to that historic run he had in the playoffs?

 

0 interceptions.

He played awesome in the playoffs that season no doubt about it.  But please find me a Ravens fan who thinks Flacco is the reason they won that SB. You won’t.  He got hot like how ELi Manning would.  

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4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

He played awesome in the playoffs that season no doubt about it.  But please find me a Ravens fan who thinks Flacco is the reason they won that SB. You won’t.  He got hot like how ELi Manning would.  

 

Dude, Flacco played out of his mind in the playoffs that year.  I was just as surprised as anyone else to watch him freaking carry that team.  And he did that in the last year of his contract, thus earning the huge deal he got.  Since then, of course, he has not been remotely worth that contract.  But that doesn’t mean he wasn’t crazy good in that playoff run and Super Bowl.  He was.  For the record, I’ll take that deal if I can get it here in Buffalo.  Give me a QB who’ll bring a Lombardi here like he did for Baltimore and I’ll be happy to see that man way overpaid.

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea he wasn't the reason they made the playoffs though. He had a reasonably pedestrian season but then a brilliant post-season. Flacco has always been a better big game Quarterback than a regular game QB though in fairness. 

 

I know.

 

The poster above made a false claim, though.

 

Flaccid wasn't the reason he made the playoffs. But he absolutely was the reason they won all the way through the playoffs.

 

And any sane Ravens fan acknowledges that.

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This bodes really well for this season that this was his primary focus in the offseason.

 

I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict Allen makes a gigantic leap in completion % to 62% or higher  :thumbsup:

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2019/05/23/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-aims-to-improve-accuracy-during-offseason/

Josh Allen aims to improve accuracy during offseason

 

“Consistently, delivering the ball where it needs to be. Ball placement is huge, especially in this league,” Allen said. “That is something that will never change, you always want to try to work on ball placement. Every day you come out, it’s kind of a new thing and sometimes the ball comes out of your hand a little bit differently. You have to make adjustments and understand what your body is trying to tell you and try to go with it.”

 

“Just trying to get the ball to the playmakers because we can’t do anything if they don’t have the ball in their hands,” he added.

 

Throughout his rookie season, Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott pushed aside the notion that his QB’s completion percentage was worrisome. While McDermott fell short of addressing Allen’s accuracy on Tuesday, he did say he believes Allen knows where he needs to improve upon in his game.

 

“Yeah, first day. I’ve been impressed with his methodical work ethic and approach. It seems like he understands the work that he has to and that we have to do this offseason to get us to where we’re trying to get to as a football team,” McDermott said.

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3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

... I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict Allen makes a gigantic leap in completion % to 62% or higher  :thumbsup: ...

i'm begging you, just please stop.

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