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transplantbillsfan

Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

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1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The best thing in there is when Dilfer specifically says that accuracy is, more than anything else, an "offensive system metric" and a "processing metric."

 

Nailed it!

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It's what you, indy, and others have been saying.  Higher completion percentage is often a simple matter of processing things in a way that you pick the throw with a better chance of completion more often.  I'm pretty sure Beane said the exact same thing.  Something like, "we're gonna work with Josh so that he understands taking more throws that will turn into completions." 

 

...and by the way- raw rookie QBs almost never process reads fully.  You can teach that.  What you can't teach is seeing it, registering it. and instantly releasing to a spot where the wr can make a break at the ball.  Josh already does this, which is so much to be excited about.  So, in the context of Josh Allen, low completion percentage is not only a poor indicator of accuracy,  but should be expected, and a bit of a relief to be his only "problem."

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53 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said:

It's what you, indy, and others have been saying.  Higher completion percentage is often a simple matter of processing things in a way that you pick the throw with a better chance of completion more often.  I'm pretty sure Beane said the exact same thing.  Something like, "we're gonna work with Josh so that he understands taking more throws that will turn into completions." 

 

...and by the way- raw rookie QBs almost never process reads fully.  You can teach that.  What you can't teach is seeing it, registering it. and instantly releasing to a spot where the wr can make a break at the ball.  Josh already does this, which is so much to be excited about.  So, in the context of Josh Allen, low completion percentage is not only a poor indicator of accuracy,  but should be expected, and a bit of a relief to be his only "problem."

 

Very well said

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I think people are overthinking this.  My biggest takeaway from the last season is that Josh Allen looked vastly improved after returning from his injury.  He looked more comfortable in the pocket.  He made better decisions.  He threw a lot of nice balls that better WR's would have caught putting his completion percentage near 60% which is where I expect him to be throughout his career (similar to Newton, Favre, and Stafford) that people like to compare him with.  I still expect him to be wildly inaccurate on three or four throws a game, but his arm strength and scrambling ability will more than make up for it.  At least I hope.

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Interesting stuff! Thanks for putting in the work. I agree that Allen isn’t that inaccurate and doesn’t deserve the label as such. However he does have much he can improve on such as accuracy and touch on short passes. Maybe it’s the velocity on his passes is the reason for the drops? 

 

The one thing that has stood out from other rookies is that he rarely puts his throw in a spot where the defender can get a hand on it. Definitely better than Darnold or even Mayfield in that way. And his yards per attempt is up there pretty good too.I have been very impressed with Josh so far!

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10 hours ago, Bring it said:

Interesting stuff! Thanks for putting in the work. I agree that Allen isn’t that inaccurate and doesn’t deserve the label as such. However he does have much he can improve on such as accuracy and touch on short passes. Maybe it’s the velocity on his passes is the reason for the drops? 

 

The one thing that has stood out from other rookies is that he rarely puts his throw in a spot where the defender can get a hand on it. Definitely better than Darnold or even Mayfield in that way. And his yards per attempt is up there pretty good too.I have been very impressed with Josh so far!

 

This was one of my biggest takeaways.

 

Along with Allen's inaccuracy, there's a kinda sub-narrative that Allen is reckless with the football.  That he's Favre-like.

 

I saw the opposite.

 

Allen is very careful with the football, but not so careful that he's unwilling to let it rip the way Taylor often was.  But when Allen does throw it, he's throwing it (usually) to places where it'll either be caught or not.

 

And again, you can cherry pick and go find examples where he doesn't do that, but my "batted/tipped balls" category wasn't just balls batted at the line, they were passes batted away before getting to the WR.  I'm sure part of it is also his height and delivery, but watching Allen throw only TWO passes that were batted/tipped was really surprising.

 

If any QB was Favre-like, it was Darnold, who was constantly getting balls batted down on the way to the WR, which is part of the reason Darnold had, by far, the highest percentage of Interceptable passes among all the 7 rookies I've looked at so far.

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Great work by the OP, thank you.

 

It seems we are in the generation of statistics. I laugh at ESPNs use of useless stats,same with all of these Internet sports writers.

I honestly never looked at completion percentage as a pre cursor for success. A QB was judged by winning. A QB was judged by

game winning drives and making plays when needed. Now it’s completion percentage and accuracy.

Absurd.

 

What was Jim Kelly’s completion percentage? I couldn’t care less but I bet it was below 60%.

I do not care about Mahommes touch. His touch doesn’t win football games. It’s about making reads in their system, making plays and being smart.

 

If Allen has a 50% completion percentage, yet wins, that is all that matters. It’s the plays made with those 50% completions and what happens outside of those completions.

 

All this Mahommes love is way out of hand. Let’s see what happens in the upcoming year before anointing him Jesus Christ.

We have seen this movie before. QB plays lights out in first year starting, then year two comes and said QB is ineffective.

 

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