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Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

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Allen's biggest problem is he throws so hard our guys drop it. 

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3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, sure he has a future.   But is he winning?  

 

What I said, and I'm convinced it's true, is that what wins in ball control, and the way you get ball control is by making every play a positive play.   I mentioned somewhere that i'm reading the biography of Belichick.   Billy said that the difference between Bledsoe and Brady was that BLedsoe wanted (and got) the big play, but Brady understood from day one that a lot of completions are better than fewer completions for more yards.   Belichick loved that Brady's typical play went like this:  Look at first option, look at second option, check it down.   Belichick WANTED that, always has.   He wins by holding onto the football - positive plays and no turnovers.  

 

And I think that's true all over the league - the winning teams have high completion percentage.   

 

So, no, I don't want more yards from Allen.  I want more completions.   Sure, hit the deeper ball when it's there, but NEVER force it.  Check down, take 3 to 7 yards, move on the next play.   

 

We all saw it - if Allen has an accuracy problem, it's on his short balls, and if he can't complete the short balls he won't have a high completion percentage.   As I said, I think his problem on short ball is not some permanent physical problem - I think it's concentration, doing the things he knows how to do to deliver that pass well.   

I didnt say more yards I said more touchdowns.  Points win the game.  Not completion percentage or yards.  I dont necessarily disagree.  I think we need the short game to be a threat as well.  He did that pretty well against Miami.  The ability to do that needs to become second nature.

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1 hour ago, dayman said:

Allen's biggest problem is he throws so hard our guys drop it. 

 

That sounds more like a WR problem. These guys are supposed to be professionals... catch the damn ball.

 

Regardless, if that's Allen's biggest problem we should all be encouraged because he actually didn't do that all that much.

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1 hour ago, formerlyofCtown said:

I didnt say more yards I said more touchdowns.  Points win the game.  Not completion percentage or yards.  I dont necessarily disagree.  I think we need the short game to be a threat as well.  He did that pretty well against Miami.  The ability to do that needs to become second nature.

I'd guess that if you talk to the best football minds in the country, the Belichicks and Reeds and others, they'll tell you completion percentage is more important.   I don't know that, but watching and listening to the coaches talking, I think winning depends on consistent offense..  I think they'd tell you that if the QB keeps getting completions, they'll get the TD anyway.  Maybe not a TD pass, maybe a two-yard run.  

 

In other words, over the long run, the incompletion you throw trying for the 40-yard TD pass hurts more than the benefit of the occasional 40-yard TD you get. 

 

Except when the game is on the line, when it's fourth and 17 and you're on your last possession, except when the game is on the line in those situations, the coach wants the higher probability throw.   

 

 

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3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Oh I personally don't think you're going to get what you're saying here Shaw. Allen just isn't the QB who takes you down with constant 3-7 yard passes the way Brady does and I don't think any OC of Allen's would be wise to have that dominate the game plan.

 

I'm not saying Allen can't do it. I'm saying that's not his greatest strength. And you should develop gameplans to your players' strengths.

 

This is getting away from accuracy, but Allen's version of a crackdown a lot of the time is him using his legs. And those are positive plays for positive yards.

 

I just looked it up and Allen scrambled 40 times on the year for 412 yards with 15 1st downs, 6 of which were on 3rd down passing plays... he had 10 such 3rd down scrambles so that means he was 60% on such conversions, which is a REALLY good number for a 3rd down passer. Plus, he had 4 TDs scrambling.

 

With all of that said, I hope Daboll completely eliminates designed runs from our offense. Allen on designed runs vs Allen on scrambles is a different beast--10.3 YPC on 40 scrambles vs 4.9 YPC on designed runs-- and again, I really think it's because a scramble is the perfect checkdown for him sometimes.

 

But back to the accuracy thing, if he can run and use his legs wisely like in the way I just said, even a lower than 60% completion percentage doesn't doom him if he's throwing consistently down the field. Newton's MVP 15-1 Super Bowl runner up season proves that. But again, I don't think the way Newton's been handled--with mostly designed runs--is the way to go. But Allen should have the freedom to run while continuing to function with enough accuracy to be successful.

 

And right now, he already looks like he has enough accuracy to be successful.

I think using his running ability as a check down will shrink if things progress well in the next few years. A lot of the running check downs comes to a combination of being less comfortable in his short game and not having enough trust in his recievers which will hopefully improve as he works with them more and gets better ones.

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20 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

So if he is 10 of 20 but 7 of those 10 are 40+ yard TDs you dont think he has a future.

 

I think that is not a sustainable model for being a successful NFL QB long term. People can go back and forth on his accuracy... but if he is going to make it his completion percentage (not the same thing) has to improve. 

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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think that is not a sustainable model for being a successful NFL QB long term. People can go back and forth on his accuracy... but if he is going to make it his completion percentage (not the same thing) has to improve. 

If you read all my post you will find I dont disagree. I just dont feel it absolutely has to be 60-65 %.  But you would need a great running game.  Trent Edwards had a high completion percentage didnt he.  The reality of it is that you likely need both.

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6 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

If you read all my post you will find I dont disagree. I just dont feel it absolutely has to be 60-65 %.  But you would need a great running game.  Trent Edwards had a high completion percentage didnt he.  The reality of it is that you likely need both.

 

Oh it isn't completion percentage and nothing else. Personally I think in this era you need to be a 60% passer to have sustainable success. The closest anyone can give to a successful modern era QB who is below that is Cam Newton and he is 59.7%.

 

 

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22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Oh it isn't completion percentage and nothing else. Personally I think in this era you need to be a 60% passer to have sustainable success. The closest anyone can give to a successful modern era QB who is below that is Cam Newton and he is 59.7%.

 

 

Good news is I think he will get there.  Cam also had a great running game backing him up.  Also on the RedZone you really need that short game.  Mt point from the beginning was if he could do that most games he would win because unless you are playing fantasy football the only stat that matters is W or L and the way to get their is with TDs and FGs while not letting your opponent get them.  But it is likely easier to do if your QBs game is well rounded.

Edited by formerlyofCtown

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Let's say he throws on average 20-30 times a game.  The difference between a completion percentage of 52% and 60% is between 2-3 passes.  So if one or two receivers catch a ball instead of dropping it, or if one or two tackles make a block that allows Allen to make a throw and complete it vs. throw it away to avoid a sack, there you have it. 

 

I agree he has things to improve.  Touch on short throws, reading defenses, taking the short throw.  All these come with experience.  People need to quit assuming the kid is a finished product.  It gets ridiculous.  And people need to quit equating accuracy with completion percentage, because it's comparing apples and oranges.

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59 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Let's say he throws on average 20-30 times a game.  The difference between a completion percentage of 52% and 60% is between 2-3 passes.  So if one or two receivers catch a ball instead of dropping it, or if one or two tackles make a block that allows Allen to make a throw and complete it vs. throw it away to avoid a sack, there you have it. 

 

I agree he has things to improve.  Touch on short throws, reading defenses, taking the short throw.  All these come with experience.  People need to quit assuming the kid is a finished product.  It gets ridiculous.  And people need to quit equating accuracy with completion percentage, because it's comparing apples and oranges.

 

On equating completion percentage with accuracy I don't think anyone is. People are saying his completion percentage has to improve to be a sustainably successful NFL QB. I believe that to be true. Improved accuracy will help him in that regard but so will receivers making more catches and the line allowing fewer free rushers. It isn't one thing it is a combination of multiple things.

 

As for the assumption he is the finished product...... I don't think he is but I equally don't think people should just assume he improves either. Some Quarterbacks improve, others are the guy they were in college, most get to a certain point then flatline. Where that point is for Josh is to be determined. I expect to see improvement in 2019, how much and whether that improvement continues into 2020 is the question.

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9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

On equating completion percentage with accuracy I don't think anyone is. People are saying his completion percentage has to improve to be a sustainably successful NFL QB. I believe that to be true. Improved accuracy will help him in that regard but so will receivers making more catches and the line allowing fewer free rushers. It isn't one thing it is a combination of multiple things.

 

As for the assumption he is the finished product...... I don't think he is but I equally don't think people should just assume he improves either. Some Quarterbacks improve, others are the guy they were in college, most get to a certain point then flatline. Where that point is for Josh is to be determined. I expect to see improvement in 2019, how much and whether that improvement continues into 2020 is the question.

I agree with everything you've stated except your first sentence.  People on this board have repeatedly used his completion percentage to say he's inaccurate, despite repeated attempts to explain why they are not the same.

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15 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I'd guess that if you talk to the best football minds in the country, the Belichicks and Reeds and others, they'll tell you completion percentage is more important.   I don't know that, but watching and listening to the coaches talking, I think winning depends on consistent offense..  I think they'd tell you that if the QB keeps getting completions, they'll get the TD anyway.  Maybe not a TD pass, maybe a two-yard run.  

 

In other words, over the long run, the incompletion you throw trying for the 40-yard TD pass hurts more than the benefit of the occasional 40-yard TD you get. 

 

Except when the game is on the line, when it's fourth and 17 and you're on your last possession, except when the game is on the line in those situations, the coach wants the higher probability throw.   

 

 

Reed is probably not a great name to throw out there, considering he ditched Alex Smith for a far more unproven (and aggressive) Patrick Mahomes...

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5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

On equating completion percentage with accuracy I don't think anyone is. People are saying his completion percentage has to improve to be a sustainably successful NFL QB. I believe that to be true. Improved accuracy will help him in that regard but so will receivers making more catches and the line allowing fewer free rushers. It isn't one thing it is a combination of multiple things.

 

As for the assumption he is the finished product...... I don't think he is but I equally don't think people should just assume he improves either. Some Quarterbacks improve, others are the guy they were in college, most get to a certain point then flatline. Where that point is for Josh is to be determined. I expect to see improvement in 2019, how much and whether that improvement continues into 2020 is the question.

To me Josh Allen has a lot of similarities to Mitch T.

 

And Mitch T. looked much better in his second year when they actually gave him guys to throw to......I hope we follow suit.

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14 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

Reed is probably not a great name to throw out there, considering he ditched Alex Smith for a far more unproven (and aggressive) Patrick Mahomes...

I think you're wrong.  Mahomes completed 66% of his passes this season.   Smith was better than that only once in his career.   By going with Mahomes, Reed got the same or better completion percentage than he had with Smith, plus he got the rest that Mahomes brought to the table.  

 

And that's what I'm saying about Allen.   Get him to throw all the short stuff the team wants him to throw, and you can have high completion percentage, the same or better scrambling than Mahomes offers PLUS great downfield throwing.  

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15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think you're wrong.  Mahomes completed 66% of his passes this season.   Smith was better than that only once in his career.   By going with Mahomes, Reed got the same or better completion percentage than he had with Smith, plus he got the rest that Mahomes brought to the table.  

 

And that's what I'm saying about Allen.   Get him to throw all the short stuff the team wants him to throw, and you can have high completion percentage, the same or better scrambling than Mahomes offers PLUS great downfield throwing.  

2x...both seasons under Reed.  

 

In 2017, Smith had an air yards per attempt of 7.6, and in 2018 Mahomes was at 9.2.  It also clear based on their arm/skill set that the chiefs were looking to get more aggressive.  Completion % went down (though not a ton because Mahomes is clearly a better QB) and touchdowns doubled.

 

FWIW, Smith lost his job in SF for pretty much the same exact reason.

 

For ***** and giggles...JA was at 10.9

Edited by Mikey152

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1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

To me Josh Allen has a lot of similarities to Mitch T.

 

And Mitch T. looked much better in his second year when they actually gave him guys to throw to......I hope we follow suit.

 

I don't see the likeness to be honest but yes he did and hopefully the Bills do something similar and that helps Josh take a step too. 

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15 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I think using his running ability as a check down will shrink if things progress well in the next few years. A lot of the running check downs comes to a combination of being less comfortable in his short game and not having enough trust in his recievers which will hopefully improve as he works with them more and gets better ones.

 

And also WRs not necessarily being open or immediate pressure he avoids via his athleticism.

 

I think Allen as our leading rusher is a terrible thing. But Allen gaining 500 yards plus or minus on the ground with his legs on passing plays that break down is just fine.

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16 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think that is not a sustainable model for being a successful NFL QB long term. People can go back and forth on his accuracy... but if he is going to make it his completion percentage (not the same thing) has to improve. 

 

It does. But not as dramatically necessarily as many would think.

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11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

On equating completion percentage with accuracy I don't think anyone is. People are saying his completion percentage has to improve to be a sustainably successful NFL QB. I believe that to be true. Improved accuracy will help him in that regard but so will receivers making more catches and the line allowing fewer free rushers. It isn't one thing it is a combination of multiple things.

 

As for the assumption he is the finished product...... I don't think he is but I equally don't think people should just assume he improves either. Some Quarterbacks improve, others are the guy they were in college, most get to a certain point then flatline. Where that point is for Josh is to be determined. I expect to see improvement in 2019, how much and whether that improvement continues into 2020 is the question.

 

Well...

 

On 2/8/2019 at 6:37 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

Even though I think your study is biased because Of the conclusion you want, I definitely respect all the work you are doing. So salute.

 

that said, Wentz has never been under 60%.  Even though he wasn’t playing with NFL talent ain college, with the coach who was Allen’s college coach. 

 

This guy definitely is...

 

On 2/8/2019 at 11:07 AM, LSHMEAB said:

Until Josh Allen's completion percentage is reflective of his superior accuracy. 

 

I appreciate your posts and your generally optimistic nature, but at some point, the completion percentage will need to rise to justify all the catchable/precision vs accuracy stuff.

 

and this guy probably is.

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7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Well...

 

 

This guy definitely is...

 

 

and this guy probably is.

 

Not in those posts you quote they aren't. 

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9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Not in those posts you quote they aren't. 

Im probably the biggest Josh Allen fan here

 

And I still say we need Josh to take another leap in production this next year.......Im pretty confident that he will

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47 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Im probably the biggest Josh Allen fan here

 

And I still say we need Josh to take another leap in production this next year.......Im pretty confident that he will

 

Yeah he absolutely will.  173 yards passing, 53 yards rushing and less than 2 TDs per game out of the QB position simply doesn't cut it long term.

 

But those numbers appear to be a symptom of the bigger problems we had on offense in 2018, not Allen himself.

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1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

Im probably the biggest Josh Allen fan here

 

And I still say we need Josh to take another leap in production this next year.......Im pretty confident that he will

i dunno. do you have a Fathead of him plastered to your ceiling like the OP does?

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5 minutes ago, Foxx said:

i dunno. do you have a Fathead of him plastered to your ceiling like the OP does?

OK.....maybe I am NOT the biggest fan. :P

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