Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, racketmaster said:

This was brought up somewhere in the thread about breaking down individual games. It is an exhaustive task and I commend the OP for the extremely time consuming task of going through every pass from every rookie qb in 2018. I have watched all of Allen’s games at least once and usually 2-3 times but have only seen about 3-4 games of each of the other 4 rookies. In general, Bills fans see the “good” and the “bad” of their quarterback much more than other quarterbacks around the league. We are all mostly caught up in trying to figure out if our quarterback is going to be good or not. The evaluations on Allen have been endless but I think it is worth our time for us all to take a break from Allen and intensely scrutinize the other rookie quarterbacks. I just decided to take a closer look at Baker Mayfield first. Why, because he is generally held up as the gold standard for the 2018 rookie quarterback class. I have watch 4 of his games this year from beginning to end but took week 17 because it is easily found on youtube for anyone to watch every throw from that game (to have your own opinion). It is also the last game and should show some growth from the first game he played.

Anyway, I did a play by play analysis of each throw by Baker in this game. I tried to keep it simple and had 5 categories (Outstanding, Very Good, Good, Bad and Very Bad). They are relatively self-explanatory but here is a little more about each of them:

Outstanding: An elite throw involving tremendous accuracy and increased by the difficulty of the throw (depth of target, off platform, being pressured etc.) It is a WOW throw.

Very Good: This is an excellent play that is anything but routine (shows some combination of accuracy and difficulty).

Good: These are just general routinely accurate throws. Plays a quarterback should generally make even if it means extending a play and throwing it out of bounds to avoid a sack.

Bad: These are generally slightly inaccurate throws or passes forced to targets that are covered.

Very Bad: Inaccurate passes or forced into coverage where there was no chance of a completion. Head scratching inaccuracy or decision making usually resulting in turnovers.

That is just the way I decided to look at it and each person will have their own preferred definitions and categories. But I tried to keep it simple. So here is the play by play below and anyone of you can go back and argue the rating if you are so inclined.

BROWNS V. RAVENS WEEK 17:

o   2nd & 5 at BAL 42

(13:01 - 1st) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short left intended for A.Callaway INTERCEPTED – (VERY BAD) Poor wobbly throw off back foot right in which defender easily steps in front of wr to intercept.

o   2nd & 6 at CLE 29

(8:59 - 1st) (No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to D.Johnson. (BAD) – Inaccurate quick thro over the head of target – made worse is that he failed to see Calloway wide open in middle of field.

o   3rd & 6 at CLE 29

(8:55 - 1st) (No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass deep right to A.Callaway ran ob at BLT 33 for 38 yards. (OUTSTANDING) Shows patience and keeps eyes downfield making a very accurate deep throw.

o   1st & 5 at BAL 28

(8:22 - 1st) Breshad Perriman Pass From Baker Mayfield for 28 Yds. (VERY GOOD) Great recognition and a nice pass dropping it over defenders to wr for TD.

 

o   3rd & 5 at CLE 30

(13:24 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass deep right to A.Callaway pushed ob at CLV 49 for 19 yards (B.Carr). (VERY GOOD) Nice pass dropping into the bucket down sideline to wr.

o   1st & 10 at CLE 49

(13:04 - 2nd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short middle to D.Johnson to BLT 48 for 3 yards (B.Urban). (GOOD) Short accurate dump off pass to rb

o   2nd & 7 at BAL 48

(12:41 - 2nd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to R.Higgins. (BAD) Pressure coming and makes inaccurate throw about 7 yards away from target – with high mobility he may have been able to make defender miss and extend play

o   3rd & 7 at BAL 48

(12:37 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to J.Landry. (BAD) Steps up in pocket but makes an inaccurate throw that is high and behind wr who was open.

o    

o   1st & 10 at CLE 10

(6:06 - 2nd) B.Mayfield pass deep right to J.Landry ran ob at CLV 29 for 19 yards. (VERY GOOD) – Nice drop back in endzone delivering accurate ball to sideline wr.

o   2nd & 9 at CLE 30

(4:51 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right to N.Chubb to CLV 28 for -2 yards (Z.Smith). (GOOD) Horizontal quick throw to RB on target but low difficulty.

o   3rd & 11 at CLE 28

(4:06 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short left intended for R.Higgins INTERCEPTED (VERY BAD) Forces throw into coverage as defender steps in front of wr and tips pass for interception

o   1st & 10 at CLE 7

(1:50 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to J.Landry. (VERY GOOD) Identifies Landry in deep middle and wr did not adjust well enough. Ball could have been placed a little better but was still an accurate throw that should have been caught.

o   2nd & 10 at CLE 7

(1:50 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left. Mayfield throws pass away. (GOOD) Pressure comes and steps up throwing ball away to avoid sack.

o   3rd & 10 at CLE 7

(1:50 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to A.Callaway. (BAD) Pressure comes and throws a pass well over head of wr who was open with a better throw.

o    

o   1st & 10 at CLE 6

(0:36 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass deep right to A.Callaway pushed ob at CLV 27 for 21 yards (M.Humphrey). (VERY GOOD) Nice accurate pass to wr who catches in stride.

o   1st & 10 at CLE 27

(0:29 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to D.Johnson. (GOOD) Extends play outside pocket and throws on run along sideline where only target has any chance.

o   2nd & 10 at CLE 27

(0:21 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass deep middle to R.Higgins to BLT 33 for 40 yards (T.Jefferson) [C.Wormley]. (GOOD) Only rated as good because extended play and took a chance late in half by throwing it up and looking for wr to make a play (if intercepted it would not have been a huge deal as there was less than 10 seconds to go in half and he could afford to take a bigger risk looking for chunk play.

o   1st & 10 at BAL 33

(0:08 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to B.Perriman. PENALTY on BLT-M.Humphrey, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at BLT 33 - No Play and not recorded.

o   SECOND HALF

o   1st & 10 at BAL 48

(12:27 - 3rd) Jarvis Landry Pass From Baker Mayfield for 48 Yds (VERY GOOD) trick bobble pass play throwing mostly accurate pass to Landry who this time adjusts to pass for TD

2nd & 14 at CLE 31

(6:17 - 3rd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right to D.Fells to CLV 34 for 3 yards (T.Jefferson). (GOOD) Short pass to outside on target

o   3rd & 11 at CLE 34

(5:36 - 3rd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to A.Callaway. (BAD) Intended pass is well out of bounds and wr has no chance to make a play

o    

o   1st & 10 at CLE 23

(2:53 - 3rd) B.Mayfield pass deep right to D.Njoku to BLT 35 for 42 yards (M.Humphrey). (VERY GOOD) Identifies 1 on 1 matchup downfield and gives TE a good ball to make a play on. TE makes great catch.

o   1st & 10 at BAL 35

(2:06 - 3rd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right to B.Perriman to BLT 37 for -2 yards (C.Mosley). (GOOD) Short horizontal pass on target.

o   3rd & 8 at BAL 33

(0:44 - 3rd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right to R.Higgins pushed ob at BLT 22 for 11 yards (M.Humphrey). (VERY GOOD) Slides in pocket and makes accurate throw allowing wr to run for first down.

o   1st & 10 at BAL 22

(0:08 - 3rd) B.Mayfield pass short right to N.Chubb to BLT 24 for -2 yards (M.Pierce). (GOOD) Double screen design and throws accurate screen to RB

o   2nd & 12 at BAL 24

(15:00 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield sacked at BLT 34 for -10 yards (C.Mosley). PENALTY on BLT-M.Humphrey, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BLT 24 - No Play and not recorded

o   1st & 10 at BAL 19

(14:38 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to N.Chubb. (GOOD) Extends play out of pocket and makes an inaccurate pass to RB but avoided sack and negative play

o   2nd & 10 at BAL 19

(14:33 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short left to R.Higgins to BLT 17 for 2 yards (T.Jefferson). (GOOD) Short accurate wr screen pass

o   3rd & 8 at BAL 17

(13:52 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to D.Njoku. (BAD) Pressure comes but TE is wide open and an accurate pass results in TD

o    

o   1st & 10 at CLE 25

(7:20 - 4th) B.Mayfield pass short right to D.Njoku to CLV 38 for 13 yards (T.Suggs). (GOOD) Takes check down and accurate throw to TE who makes a play

o   2nd & 15 at CLE 33

(5:57 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short middle to D.Njoku to CLV 40 for 7 yards (C.Wormley). (GOOD) Short accurate pass to TE

o   3rd & 8 at CLE 40

(5:00 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right to J.Landry ran ob at BLT 46 for 14 yards (T.Young). (VERY GOOD) Pressure down and accurate sideline pass

o   1st & 10 at BAL 46

(5:00 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short left to R.Higgins to BLT 13 for 33 yards (T.Jefferson). (GOOD) Wr screen pass that is low but catchable and set up well for big gain.

o   2nd & 3 at BAL 6

(4:14 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right to J.Landry to BLT 1 for 5 yards (T.Jefferson). (GOOD) Short accurate pass

o   1st & Goal at BAL 1

(3:32 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to D.Njoku (M.Humphrey).

• • (VERY GOOD) Excellent jump ball pass and nearly a TD

o   2nd & Goal at BAL 1

(3:24 - 4th) Antonio Callaway Pass From Baker Mayfield for 1 Yard (GOOD) Nice accurate pick play pass for TD

o   1st & 10 at CLE 26

(1:49 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to B.Perriman. (BAD) Thrown behind target

o   2nd & 10 at CLE 26

(1:46 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass deep right to B.Perriman to CLV 45 for 19 yards (B.Carr). (OUTSTANDING) Extends play outside and makes very accurate throw along sideline where only wr can make a play at a key point in game.

1st & 10 at CLE 45

(1:40 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to J.Landry. (BAD) Throws over head of WR who has no chance to make play

o   2nd & 10 at CLE 45

(1:35 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass complete deep middle to J.Landry 16 yds (T.Young). (VERY GOOD) Accurate throw on move outside pocket and even better catch.

o   1st & 10 at BAL 39

(1:18 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to D.Njoku (A.Levine Sr.). (GOOD) Gave accurate enough jump pass at sideline but was covered nicely

o   2nd & 10 at BAL 39

(1:14 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to J.Landry (J.Smith). (VERY BAD) Had Landry open but threw well behind him for what should have been an easy catch and out of bounds play.

o   3rd & 10 at BAL 39

(1:10 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to D.Njoku (A.Levine Sr.). (GOOD) Accurate pass into tight coverage.

o   4th & 10 at BAL 39

(1:06 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by C.Mosley (BAD) Some bad luck here as defender got stuffed at rush and ended up being pushed back into the throwing lane

 

TOTALS:

OUTSTANDING PLAYS: 2

VERY GOOD PLAYs: 11

GOOD PLAYS: 17

BAD PLAYS: 9

VERY BAD PLAYS: 3

My summary, Mayfield played a solid game against a very good defense. He made a few outstanding plays and found a good groove in the 3^rd quarter deep into the 4^th. He also started the game with a poor throw and had a number of inaccurate passes throughout the game. He did not see wide open wrs at times and missed some easy throws. He is not a dynamic scrambler but can slide around and extend plays. He throws well off platform and on the move. He did not end the final drive particularly well and missed an easy first down throw to Landry on the sideline setting up the eventual interception.

This is just one game so I don’t want to make too much of it. But all it really proves is that if we analyze any of the rookie quarterback (or really any quarterback) enough, we will see warts. Baker is viewed as a rising star yet he made a number of poor throws and decisions. It happens to the best of them and the defenses get paid too. Getting back to Allen, I think is makes him look even better. Each week there seems to be 4-5 plays that he is off target or makes a poor decision. Well guess what, Baker is doing that too. And I’d venture a guess that if I did a serious rating of a Darnold, Rosen or Jackson game that they would have a slew of bad plays as well. So if Baker is the gold standard for accuracy, I just did not see his accuracy as head and shoulders above what Allen has displayed the last 6 games.

Thanks for this.

 

I like that someone went through this exercise in some form.

 

For that game what I came up with were 27 catchable balls (4 were incompletions), 9 were uncatchable, 1 throwaway, 5 tipped/batted, 4 interceptable.

 

And yeah, you sum things up well 

[transplantbillsfan]

10 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Just to be even nerdier about the OP's analysis, let's talk about what the sources of problems might be when Allen is not accurate.  You have two types of error:  systematic and random.  Systematic means you have a consistent problem with your measurement system that biases results in a certain way.  So let's say your bathroom scale is actually at 5 pounds when it should read zero.  That is systematic and generally affects accuracy of measurements.

 

So for Allen to improve his accuracy, is there a systematic error that can be corrected?  Possibly, that may be where consistent footwork and release point when throwing could come in.

 

The other source of error is random error.  That is truly random and are out of control of the measurement system, and in lab tests, etc. these generally affect precision.    There are a number of those that could affect a pass, the wind, whether a guy ran the right route, etc.

 

Just more nerdy things to ponder when looking at the kid's development.  I think there are some sources of systematic error he can fix, like throwing short passes with more touch.   The random errors could be fixed, for example, by having WRs that actually catch the ball vs. drop it.

 

I really think there were a ton of random errors, actually.

 

To me it looked like there was a whole lot of miscommunication. It'd be great to hear from Allen and Daboll about every pass the way we did after that 1st Miami game with the wide open Zay miss in the EZ. Knowing that was a miscommunication sure made me feel a helluva lot better about that seemingly atrocious pass.

[transplantbillsfan]

This is really only tangentially related to this, but interesting nonetheless:

 

[Warcodered]

30 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I really think there were a ton of random errors, actually.

 

To me it looked like there was a whole lot of miscommunication. It'd be great to hear from Allen and Daboll about every pass the way we did after that 1st Miami game with the wide open Zay miss in the EZ. Knowing that was a miscommunication sure made me feel a helluva lot better about that seemingly atrocious pass.

I mean the best you can do to look for those is to watch and see what happens after the play since some times the players will give an indication that something was amiss but even what they're saying is subjective.

 

 

7 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

This is really only tangentially related to this, but interesting nonetheless:

 

Really Rosen was that much higher than Allen on this list for that long...wait he started out in first?

[transplantbillsfan]

https://buffalonews.com/2019/01/17/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-lorenzo-alexander-kyle-williams-nfl-football-vic-carucci/

On whether there are specific areas of his game he’s addressing.

“Obviously, getting back to our drops, working on footwork, working on timing, and then just trying to get some throws up. Obviously, being smart about how many throws you do in this offseason, trying to get a little regimented plan on when to throw and when not to throw. Just being smart with that aspect, but still going through footwork drills, working on drops, trying to time them up with what we've got in our offense so then we get back into camp, all that stuff’s been rehearsed in practice and we’ve got good repetition with that.”

On whether he’ll continue to work with Jordan Palmer, the Southern California-based quarterback guru with whom he worked in preparation for pre-draft workouts.

“Yeah, I’ll still continue to work with him. He's got some draft guys right now and I’ll be seeing him pretty shortly and talking with those guys. Obviously, if he needs some help doing that I’m more than happy to give some advice. Going through this year, going through the draft process, there's some tidbits I can give them, but, yeah, I’ll still be working with (Palmer).”

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

I mean the best you can do to look for those is to watch and see what happens after the play since some times the players will give an indication that something was amiss but even what they're saying is subjective.

 

 

Very true.

 

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

Really Rosen was that much higher than Allen on this list for that long...wait he started out in first?

 

Incredible, isn't it? And how was Allen lower than Lamar Jackson, who was the longest shot to start a game this year? Hell, how was Darnold lower than him?

[transplantbillsfan]

Interesting article on improvements over the season from empty sets along with other notes on just how abysmal our offensive weapons have been

https://buffalonews.com/2019/01/21/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-offense-analysis-empty-formation-brian-daboll-2018-receivers-running-backs-snap-counts/

Offense analysis: Josh Allen's improvement seen in empty formations

Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll said Allen’s improvement in understanding protections during the four weeks he was out due to injury, helped him run empty sets more effectively.

 

“When you line up in a spread out formation it does a few things,” Daboll said. “One, it puts stress on your line if you’re going to hold it a little bit because now usually you don’t have some double edges there to help. Two, it allows him to see the field and expand the defense."

 

...

 

The Bills ran empty sets on 7.8 percent of plays overall in 2018 and 16.7 percent of their plays the last six weeks. That would be about the league lead for a full season. In 2017, Arizona led the NFL in using empty sets 17 percent of plays, and the league average was 8 percent.

 

Running a lot of empty sets on third-and-long situations becomes problematic, because against good pass-rush teams the quarterback often gets hit before the receivers reach the first-down sticks.

 

The Bills went empty on 5.6 percent of plays in 2017, and Tyrod Taylor had much less production than Allen. Taylor was 18 for 39 for 160 yards and ran seven times for 46 yards.

 

...

 

Late-season improvement

...

 

WR shortfall

...

 

Worst RB production ever

...

 

First-down improvement

...

Snap counts

[transplantbillsfan]

I also thought this was really interesting since I wouldn't even be able to begin to attempt identifying base defenses:

 

[BuffaloBill]

On 1/21/2019 at 2:17 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

Interesting article on improvements over the season from empty sets along with other notes on just how abysmal our offensive weapons have been

https://buffalonews.com/2019/01/21/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-offense-analysis-empty-formation-brian-daboll-2018-receivers-running-backs-snap-counts/

Offense analysis: Josh Allen's improvement seen in empty formations

Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll said Allen’s improvement in understanding protections during the four weeks he was out due to injury, helped him run empty sets more effectively.

 

“When you line up in a spread out formation it does a few things,” Daboll said. “One, it puts stress on your line if you’re going to hold it a little bit because now usually you don’t have some double edges there to help. Two, it allows him to see the field and expand the defense."

 

...

 

The Bills ran empty sets on 7.8 percent of plays overall in 2018 and 16.7 percent of their plays the last six weeks. That would be about the league lead for a full season. In 2017, Arizona led the NFL in using empty sets 17 percent of plays, and the league average was 8 percent.

 

Running a lot of empty sets on third-and-long situations becomes problematic, because against good pass-rush teams the quarterback often gets hit before the receivers reach the first-down sticks.

 

The Bills went empty on 5.6 percent of plays in 2017, and Tyrod Taylor had much less production than Allen. Taylor was 18 for 39 for 160 yards and ran seven times for 46 yards.

 

...

 

Late-season improvement

...

 

WR shortfall

...

 

Worst RB production ever

...

 

First-down improvement

...

Snap counts

 

 

It’s nice to think that we have stability in QB and OC going into the offseason.  It gives us a real chance for improvement next season.  

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

It’s nice to think that we have stability in QB and OC going into the offseason.  It gives us a real chance for improvement next season.  

 

I really think the continuity of Daboll with McDermott is huge and I really, really hope Daboll is already grooming his inevitable replacement if Allen and the offense look good next year because he'll get a Head Coaching gig.

 

The Patriots have benefited so damn much from the consistency of their Coordinators year after year after year.

 

It's another reason to hate them.

[Yav]

The worse teams in WR drops: Cleveland, Buffalo & Arizona. That should help answer accuracy issues. 

[LeGOATski]

4 hours ago, Yav said:

The worse teams in WR drops: Cleveland, Buffalo & Arizona. That should help answer accuracy issues. 

Is it just a coincidence that they all have rookie QBs?

[Mikey152]

On 1/18/2019 at 3:24 PM, Shaw66 said:

Thanks.  That's helpful.  

 

Beane claims he is a strict BPA guy, but we all know that if the BPA in every round is a center, he isn't going to take seven centers.  So you have to be right at some point.  

 

But, since you know that the return on guys down at the end of the draft is low, if you need a receiver, it's not stupid to bet on the same position multiple times.   It increases the chances you'll win on one.  And it really isn't likely that if the Bills won on two of them, they would have kept one on the bench.  First, they aren't likey to be productive for most of their rookie seasons, as was the case with Foster.   But even if Foster had made it from day one, if Ray Ray had made it too, they BOTH would have been playing.   The coach is going to find ways to get productive guys on the field.   Belichick played several seasons with a cadre of small, not particularly fast receivers.   

 

So although your points are good and show that the probability of helping the team might have been higher by spreading those picks around, position wise, the practical reality is that you're likely to do no better than one out of three with picks like that, and that's what Beane did.  If he'd had two Fosters in the mix, McDermott would have player two Fosters with Zay.  If one developed really fast, he would have taken Benjamin's job earlier.  

 

Wasted, no.  Might there have been a better strategy, yes, I agree.  

 

"Best Player available" is sort of a misnomer...it is incredibly rare where there is a literal "best player".  Most of the time what happens is players fall into groups or tiers made up of similarly-ranked players (position is likely factored in somewhat, but from an absolute value standpoint and not based on need).  

 

When you adopt a BPA strategy, you should always be picking from the highest tiers left on your board.  If there aren't any positions you need in your highest tier (or loads of guys left in that tier), maybe you trade down...and if there is only one or two guys left in a tier at a position of need maybe you trade up.  

 

What BPA really means is don't reach for need...you should trust your board you spent a year building.  Crazy stuff happens to rosters in football, and you can always trade picks or players if you're in a position of surplus.

 

 

[Yav]

5 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

Is it just a coincidence that they all have rookie QBs?

Thats a good point. I wondered if part of Buffalos drops were due to the velocity of the ball. 

Still WR are paid to catch the damn ball and Buffalo did a horrible job at that. I believe the number went down after KB was let go, I think we can all agree that dude just sucks.

[transplantbillsfan]

I decided I'm actually gonna go back to some previous high profile rookie QBs.  I'm talking mainly the 1st rounders like this year, but I'm not gonna do guys who are busts like Paxton Lynch.  But I will do some other guys who weren't 1st round picks but played a lot their rookie year and went on to be successful like Dak and (if I go that far back) Russell Wilson.

 

I'm halfway through Deshaun Watson's rookie season.  So far, Exluding Throwaways:

 

Catchable pass %- 78.2%

 

Throwaway/Spike %- 2.5%

 

Interceptable pass %- 9%

 

Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls- 81.3%

 

 

I'll update the OP as I finish each individual new QB's rookie season and fit it all together to see how Allen ranks in comparison to all those other rookie seasons.  Watson as of now is a hair ahead of Allen in Catchable pass % but worse than him in Interceptable pass %.

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, Yav said:

Thats a good point. I wondered if part of Buffalos drops were due to the velocity of the ball. 

Still WR are paid to catch the damn ball and Buffalo did a horrible job at that. I believe the number went down after KB was let go, I think we can all agree that dude just sucks.

 

I don't think ball velocity was much of a problem.  The complaint that Allen has no touch and puts too much into every pass is overblown, especially by the end of the season.

[transplantbillsfan]

Only 2 more games left to go with Watson, which I'll probably get to tomorrow, but with most of his season done now, I have:

 

Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 76.3%

 

Throwaway/Spike %: 4.1%

 

Interceptable Pass %: 10.1%

 

Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 79.1%

 

 

So right now he'd be just behind Mayfield in Catchable pass % and only better than Darnold in Interceptable pass %.

[transplantbillsfan]

Okey dokey so I finished up with Deshaun Watson's rookie season and pieced him into the picture of the 5 2018 rookies in the OP.

 

Watching him only reinforces my feelings that this national dialogue of Allen being wildly inaccurate is bonkers.

 

Gonna do some of the other notable rookies over the last half decade or so in the upcoming weeks.  I'm gonna focus on only the rookies who have had GOOD rookie seasons, though, not the ones who were bleh and then picked it up in their 2nd years.  So I'm not going to look at Goff or Trubisky.

 

Sounds reasonable, right?

 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

This is the kinda stuff that made me start this exercise.

 

Schatz has been one of those really highly respected guys saying Allen is somehow so much more inaccurate than other rookies.

 

He's not wrong that Allen misses easy throws, but he's very wrong that Allen is unique in that sense among good rookie QBs.

 

This kinda statement is the equivalent of, "before you eat that lemon, watch out! That one is sour!"

Edited January 29, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Just win baby! (That will also mute this nonsensical narrative that irritates those of us who actually watched JA play with motley fools at WR for much of the year) 

[cba fan]

On 1/15/2019 at 8:40 AM, wakingfane said:

Wow, that's stunning. I'm surprised that the results of 35 throws would tilt the statistics that much. Of course every receiving corps has drops but I agree that catching the majority of those particular 35 throws is not too much to ask. 

Allen did not throw that many balls all season in comparison with the others except Jackson so those 35 are a bigger % and effect things more strongly.