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Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too


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19 hours ago, Foxx said:

it is hard to really understand these numbers without having them in the proper context. that being, the numbers for the other top 36 QB's in the league. having the proper context could possibly give meaning to them but maybe not. until that happens ...

Having other QB's would be good for comparison but these numbers do show that Allen has the potential to get his completion % over 60%.  If his top potential last year was 74.2%, then all he needs to get to 60% is to have half of that potential to be realized this year, getting his % up to 63.5.  That potential can be realized by improved decision making and/or improved team play.  It doesn't seem to be unrealistic to believe that he can get that kind of improvement to me without improving his accuracy.  That's what I get from the numbers without comparing them to other QB's.

18 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Well I certainly appreciate the work done by you.

 

Jives with what I've been saying: accuracy isn't a big problem for Allen. Decision making was the much bigger problem.

 

Are you still doing all the other QBs, too?

 

His numbers--while interesting--don't mean much with out at least a handful of others to compare him with.

I might do a guy like DeShaun Watson but I have to prepare for the 2019 season so I'm not sure whether or not I will have the time to do other QB's or not.  If I do, I will share the results with you guys and I will share the 2019 results too.

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Too add to my other post.  I looked at all of the poor passes that I recorded for Allen and took away all of the ones that he had while under pressure or on the move.  That resulted in subtracting an additional 10 incomplete passes.  Which means that Allen missed completely on 21 passes (6.5% of all passes) that there are no excuses for.  This adjustment gets his catch-able % up to 90.7%

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20 hours ago, Foxx said:

it is hard to really understand these numbers without having them in the proper context. that being, the numbers for the other top 36 QB's in the league. having the proper context could possibly give meaning to them but maybe not. until that happens ...

Don't care about other QBs.  How they do has no effect on what Allen does.

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 5/21/2019 at 5:23 PM, Foxx said:

the only thing and i repeat... the only thing that matters is the completion percentage, period. it is an accurate gauge of what a QB is doing.

Thank you brutha. I'm losing it here with all the talk about why being able to get the ball securely in your WR's mitts doesn't matter. Completion % encompasses EVERYTHING that requires a ball to be pitched.. and caught. And part of that equation is your quarterback hitting the WR's hands. Of course there's other factors affecting completion % other than quarterback play. It doesn't mean we can sit back with a sigh of relief after an incompletion and say "well.. at least Josh Allen ain't inaccurate!".

 

No no no. haha even if it isn't JA's fault how bout we pretend like completing passes matter and get better. Because we're playing a team sport here. I want every part of the equation involving a ball getting caught to improve, including JA's misfires, drops, blown blocking assignment throwaways. I want the ball caught and I want it to happen on more attempts than not.. especially compared to the rest of the league.

 

And how many threads does it take to learn yes completion % =/= accuracy       BUT     accuracy is a subset of completion percentage! 

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52 minutes ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

Thank you brutha. I'm losing it here with all the talk about why being able to get the ball securely in your WR's mitts doesn't matter. Completion % encompasses EVERYTHING that requires a ball to be pitched.. and caught. And part of that equation is your quarterback hitting the WR's hands. Of course there's other factors affecting completion % other than quarterback play. It doesn't mean we can sit back with a sigh of relief after an incompletion and say "well.. at least Josh Allen ain't inaccurate!".

 

No no no. haha even if it isn't JA's fault how bout we pretend like completing passes matter and get better. Because we're playing a team sport here. I want every part of the equation involving a ball getting caught to improve, including JA's misfires, drops, blown blocking assignment throwaways. I want the ball caught and I want it to happen on more attempts than not.. especially compared to the rest of the league.

 

And how many threads does it take to learn yes completion % =/= accuracy       BUT     accuracy is a subset of completion percentage! 

I entirely agree with your larger point about seeing every facet of a completed pass improving across the board. 

 

Per the bold text, I’m not sure I can buy that knowing that the potential exists to throw 10 perfectly accurate passes and not completing any. Again, that alludes to the other facets involved in completed passes, but it makes it hard for me to buy into the concept of accuracy being a subset of completion percentage because of those other aspects. 

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4 hours ago, K-9 said:

I entirely agree with your larger point about seeing every facet of a completed pass improving across the board. 

 

Per the bold text, I’m not sure I can buy that knowing that the potential exists to throw 10 perfectly accurate passes and not completing any. Again, that alludes to the other facets involved in completed passes, but it makes it hard for me to buy into the concept of accuracy being a subset of completion percentage because of those other aspects. 

Yeah I suppose I could reiterate. Accuracy is part of the equation. And it's a complicated equation. And I'll grant that accuracy has diminishing returns.. a truly inaccurate Tim Tebow type player weighs very heavily on the ultimate completion %. Let's say he hits the water cooler 60% of the time. He's making the 2 virtually the same.

 

As you look at better Quarterbacks, a significantly more accurate JA's part in the equation weighs much less as he's giving his guys chances to drop the balls at least, with occasional lapses in his throw himself some downs.

 

And take Drew Brees who hits 70% and his accuracy is so good the completion % pretty much plateaus because no matter how accurate he can be, the human error around him is going to settle at 70% which may be nearly impossible: is this is virtually nothing to do with Brees by this point. 

 

What do you think? That make sense? That's why I've contended several times JA may never be the most accurate but he's up there experiencing diminishing returns such that his other attributes can shine and make him stand out since he's not crippling inaccurate to the point that it heavily affects completion %.

 

So I'm fine with seeing him have marginal improvement in pure accuracy but believe his other complimentary skill sets become much more important in getting a productive offense of deep balls, broken plays, and diagnosing defenses to get his completion % and YPA as good as it needs for a win.

Edited by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P
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10 hours ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

Thank you brutha. I'm losing it here with all the talk about why being able to get the ball securely in your WR's mitts doesn't matter. Completion % encompasses EVERYTHING that requires a ball to be pitched.. and caught. And part of that equation is your quarterback hitting the WR's hands. Of course there's other factors affecting completion % other than quarterback play. It doesn't mean we can sit back with a sigh of relief after an incompletion and say "well.. at least Josh Allen ain't inaccurate!".

 

No no no. haha even if it isn't JA's fault how bout we pretend like completing passes matter and get better. Because we're playing a team sport here. I want every part of the equation involving a ball getting caught to improve, including JA's misfires, drops, blown blocking assignment throwaways. I want the ball caught and I want it to happen on more attempts than not.. especially compared to the rest of the league.

 

And how many threads does it take to learn yes completion % =/= accuracy       BUT     accuracy is a subset of completion percentage! 

 

Did you not read the OP where I laid our my criteria for what a catchable vs an uncatchable pass is?

 

As I said in the OP, if the ball hit (or was able to hit) the WR in the hands as would be considered "mitts" as you allude to, it's catchable. If the WR is ONLY able to get his fingers, but no part of the hand/palm on the ball, it was unwatchable.

 

Our WRs (and OL) blew chunks last year. Let's hope they've improved immensely this offseason.

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15 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

When you’re talking about an adjusted completion percent how do you know whether it’s good if you have nothing to relate it to?

How can you compare when you have different offensive schemes with different receivers and different O lines with different protection abilities and different QBs with different levels of experience?

 

People oversimplify stats all the time around here.  Football is multivariate; any individual stat has to take a host of variants into the equation.  Allen needs to learn more about reading defenses, taking the short throw, etc. A veteran like Brees has a higher percentage because of many factors.

 

You want a stat that is truly mathematical?  If a guy like Allen throws 30 passes and completes 2 more (rather than throws 2 away) he hits the 60% overall completion rate everyone keeps claiming is so critical.

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2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

How can you compare...

The same way it has always been done. As a piece of the puzzle. 

 

If if someone takes the time to figure out adjusted stats for one player then that is useless, unless there is something to compare it to.

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1 minute ago, Cripple Creek said:

The same way it has always been done. As a piece of the puzzle. 

 

If if someone takes the time to figure out adjusted stats for one player then that is useless, unless there is something to compare it to.

I look at the individual player.  Allen has potential for a second year guy with things to learn.  Comparing him to someone like a Brees is useless.

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1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

I look at the individual player.  Allen has potential for a second year guy with things to learn.  Comparing him to someone like a Brees is useless.

 

you’re not getting the point here

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35 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

When you’re talking about an adjusted completion percent how do you know whether it’s good if you have nothing to relate it to?

 

14 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

How can you compare when you have different offensive schemes with different receivers and different O lines with different protection abilities and different QBs with different levels of experience?

 

People oversimplify stats all the time around here.  Football is multivariate; any individual stat has to take a host of variants into the equation.  Allen needs to learn more about reading defenses, taking the short throw, etc. A veteran like Brees has a higher percentage because of many factors.

 

You want a stat that is truly mathematical?  If a guy like Allen throws 30 passes and completes 2 more (rather than throws 2 away) he hits the 60% overall completion rate everyone keeps claiming is so critical.

talk about not addressing a question presented. wow.

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22 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

Your right, it’s useless.

Explain to me how comparing a first year QBs stats to a HOF QB with vastly more experience, with different receivers, different O line, coaching and all the other variables makes sense.  I can watch Allen on the Bills last year, and I watched every play over his last three games, and I can tell you what he needs.  He needs to make his reads more quickly, to get the game to slow down.  He needs to improve his ball placement (which is more precision than accuracy) especially on shorter throws.  He needs to improve his footwork throwing to the right.  He needs better receivers and better protection.

 

Prett much all these are what you'd expect from a young QB.  Comparing him to a HOFer as if he should be at that level today is pointless and achieves nothing.

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