Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

[Seoulofstone]

On 5/11/2019 at 7:24 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Ummm... okay.... relevance?

 

 it’s relevant to Josh Allen because this is the same QB guru (Jordan Palmer) who has been working with both Allen’s and Darnold at their camp and for that matter Tyree Jackson too. Unlike Darnold and JAllen, KAllen attended panthers rookie camp and his accuracy was noticeably improved. It is my hope that we see the same improvement from Josh. 

 Perhaps it’s a tenuous link but news is slow in the off-season and I thought it might be of interest.

[Bruce Harper]

I'm a Darnold guy but I respect the work you put into this.

[Boca BIlls]

All that matters now is how they do this year. These past stats are now moot since so much has changed.

[Socal-805]

3 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

All that matters now is how they do this year. These past stats are now moot since so much has changed.

 

 

Unless.....  He continues to be terribly inaccurate, then they do matter.

 

: )

 

[Foxx]

3 hours ago, Socal-805 said:

 

 

Unless.....  He continues to be terribly inaccurate, then they do matter.

 

: )

 

great! then we can look forward to another long and ill conceived thread analysis by none other than transplant.

Edited May 19, 2019 by Foxx

[Nextmanup]

On 3/23/2019 at 6:10 PM, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

Yeah I said before I don't think JA's terribly accurate but I don't really care so much as long as he's on the money when necessary. 

 

I think we all saw a ton of talent in JA to be excited. So provided he gets Ws we shouldn't be overly concerned over accuracy anyways. He's got enough things going for him and, of course, he's accurate enough.. people talk about him like he's Tim Tebow if he was that inaccurate it would have seriously limited his play last year.

 

I'm fine with Cam Newton abilities and psyched if better.

You're basically saying you don't care that Allen is inaccurate, as long as he can somehow magically transform into an accurate passer when it matters most in a game.  It doesn't work that way.

 

Of course Allen has a ton of athleticism and did some impressive things on a football field, mostly with his legs.

 

I'll give you 2 guys he reminds me a lot of:  Tim Tebow and Collin Kaepernick.  Did anyone ever accuse either of those guys of NOT being tremendous athletes?  And while we are on that topic ever notice that Tom Brady does NOT appear to be a tremendous, natural athlete?  

 

It ain't just about athleticism, brother!

 

 

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, Nextmanup said:

 

 

I'll give you 2 guys he reminds me a lot of:  Tim Tebow and Collin Kaepernick.  

 

 

Kaepernick had a decent run in the NFL. The Tebow comparison is WAY off. Allen has a huge arm and Tebow's was Peterman level bad. 

[transplantbillsfan]

https://theathletic.com/981080/2019/05/17/how-much-better-can-josh-allen-and-the-bills-offense-be-an-analytical-breakdown-heading-into-2019/

How much better can Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense be? An analytical breakdown heading into 2019

By Matthew Fairburn May 17, 2019

Aggressiveness

NFL Next Gen Stats tracks aggressiveness as the percentage of throws a quarterback attempts when a receiver has one yard or less of separation from the defender at the time of the completion or incompletion. This is a way to measure how often a quarterback is throwing into tight coverage. Allen finished at 13.8 percent in this category, though the number alone doesn’t correlate to a quarterback’s success. Allen’s percentage was within a decimal point of those of Tom Brady, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. Josh Rosen was the most aggressive quarterback in the league last year, and his rookie season was a disaster. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes ranked near the bottom of the league in this metric because his receivers were constantly running open.

What this metric does tell us, though, is that Allen, despite having a sub-par group of receivers, wasn’t often throwing into tight coverage. Did he not trust his receivers to make plays on contested catches? Did he not trust what he was seeing? It could be a combination of the two. It would be understandable if Allen was less than confident in the receivers the Bills had. They also went through quite a few receiver combinations throughout the season, and without ideal timing, these tight-window throws aren’t as easy to make. Allen noted that after the team’s Week 16 loss to the Patriots.

 

“It’s all about timing, trust and the relationship that you have with the guys out there,” Allen said. “We’re still relatively new with each other. To go through and play games like that and have opportunities that were so close but slip away, it definitely gives us confidence as we move forward. We’ll work on them and clean those things up, and in no time we’ll be completing those — having trust on depth, on timing in my drop and expecting guys to be where they are and they’re going to be there.”

 

Now that the Bills will have three new receivers, Allen will once again have to establish timing with them. The difference is that he will spend the entire offseason working with the first-team offense and the receiver room shouldn’t have as much turnover as it did a year ago.

6 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

All that matters now is how they do this year. These past stats are now moot since so much has changed.

 

What matters about this for now at least is that the narrative that Allen needs some kind of Herculean improvement from his 1st to 2nd year in terms of passing accuracy compared to his peers is incorrect.

 

Completion percentage, yes.

 

Accuracy, no.

[Warcodered]

26 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

https://theathletic.com/981080/2019/05/17/how-much-better-can-josh-allen-and-the-bills-offense-be-an-analytical-breakdown-heading-into-2019/

How much better can Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense be? An analytical breakdown heading into 2019

By Matthew Fairburn May 17, 2019

 

I wonder how many of those tight window throws came from the Chargers, Packers, and Patriots games.

Edited May 19, 2019 by Warcodered

[Socal-805]

 

 

Last game of the season:  STATS looked pretty good actually.  Now look at the passes.

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/pass/buffalo-bills/2018/week/josh-allen/ALL529264/2018/17/pass

 

o  10 of his completions were behind the LOS or with 5 yards of the LOS.

 

 

[wiley16350]

I have now finished Josh Allen's first 6 games for my study of incomplete passes.  He is in the top 5 (I want to say 2nd or 3rd) for best responsibility percentage.  I have him responsible for 37% of his incomplete passes.  The percentage takes into account, accuracy, decision making and pressure and assigns blame to every incomplete pass in whole or in part.  What the rankings in this category say to me is that the guys higher on the list (like Allen) are sabotaged or hurt more by the talent around them then guys lower on the list.  It doesn't necessarily suggest that Allen is more accurate than the guys lower than him.  I only have Allen down for 9 passes (6% of his attempts) that were incomplete solely because of accuracy issues.  Some other passes could be inaccurate to a degree but went down as something else, such as a defended pass or a catchable pass that wasn't perfect.  I have seen a lot more poor throws from Tom Brady, than I have from Allen.  Now, Brady throws it more often so that means he will have more poor throws but when i'm just watching incomplete passes all of the time, it feels like Brady is a more inaccurate QB than Allen.  Brady's responsibility % is in the high 40's or low 50's, I can't remember off the top of my head.  Maybe after I finish week 6 for all QB's, I will post my chart again so you all can see how Allen fared prior to his injury.  Allen is definitely not as inaccurate as his 54% rate (at that point in the season) would suggest.  Guys like DeShaun Watson seem to be much more inaccurate to me and I just looked up his completion % and was kind of shocked to see it was at 68%.  I know I have Watson with over 20 uncatchable passes which makes his uncatchable passes % at least 9%, which is 3% worse than Allen.  If you think completion % is a true indicator of accuracy, then you are really doing yourself a disservice by spouting off what is a clearly ignorant of reality argument.

[oldmanfan]

12 minutes ago, wiley16350 said:

I have now finished Josh Allen's first 6 games for my study of incomplete passes.  He is in the top 5 (I want to say 2nd or 3rd) for best responsibility percentage.  I have him responsible for 37% of his incomplete passes.  The percentage takes into account, accuracy, decision making and pressure and assigns blame to every incomplete pass in whole or in part.  What the rankings in this category say to me is that the guys higher on the list (like Allen) are sabotaged or hurt more by the talent around them then guys lower on the list.  It doesn't necessarily suggest that Allen is more accurate than the guys lower than him.  I only have Allen down for 9 passes (6% of his attempts) that were incomplete solely because of accuracy issues.  Some other passes could be inaccurate to a degree but went down as something else, such as a defended pass or a catchable pass that wasn't perfect.  I have seen a lot more poor throws from Tom Brady, than I have from Allen.  Now, Brady throws it more often so that means he will have more poor throws but when i'm just watching incomplete passes all of the time, it feels like Brady is a more inaccurate QB than Allen.  Brady's responsibility % is in the high 40's or low 50's, I can't remember off the top of my head.  Maybe after I finish week 6 for all QB's, I will post my chart again so you all can see how Allen fared prior to his injury.  Allen is definitely not as inaccurate as his 54% rate (at that point in the season) would suggest.  Guys like DeShaun Watson seem to be much more inaccurate to me and I just looked up his completion % and was kind of shocked to see it was at 68%.  I know I have Watson with over 20 uncatchable passes which makes his uncatchable passes % at least 9%, which is 3% worse than Allen.  If you think completion % is a true indicator of accuracy, then you are really doing yourself a disservice by spouting off what is a clearly ignorant of reality argument.

I agree, and thank you for the work you are doing.

[thebandit27]

16 hours ago, Socal-805 said:

 

 

Last game of the season:  STATS looked pretty good actually.  Now look at the passes.

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/pass/buffalo-bills/2018/week/josh-allen/ALL529264/2018/17/pass

 

o  10 of his completions were behind the LOS or with 5 yards of the LOS.

 

 

 

Explain how that's different from anything you see here:

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/patrick-mahomes/MAH401939/season

[transplantbillsfan]

14 hours ago, wiley16350 said:

I have now finished Josh Allen's first 6 games for my study of incomplete passes.  He is in the top 5 (I want to say 2nd or 3rd) for best responsibility percentage.  I have him responsible for 37% of his incomplete passes.  The percentage takes into account, accuracy, decision making and pressure and assigns blame to every incomplete pass in whole or in part.  What the rankings in this category say to me is that the guys higher on the list (like Allen) are sabotaged or hurt more by the talent around them then guys lower on the list.  It doesn't necessarily suggest that Allen is more accurate than the guys lower than him.  I only have Allen down for 9 passes (6% of his attempts) that were incomplete solely because of accuracy issues.  Some other passes could be inaccurate to a degree but went down as something else, such as a defended pass or a catchable pass that wasn't perfect.  I have seen a lot more poor throws from Tom Brady, than I have from Allen.  Now, Brady throws it more often so that means he will have more poor throws but when i'm just watching incomplete passes all of the time, it feels like Brady is a more inaccurate QB than Allen.  Brady's responsibility % is in the high 40's or low 50's, I can't remember off the top of my head.  Maybe after I finish week 6 for all QB's, I will post my chart again so you all can see how Allen fared prior to his injury.  Allen is definitely not as inaccurate as his 54% rate (at that point in the season) would suggest.  Guys like DeShaun Watson seem to be much more inaccurate to me and I just looked up his completion % and was kind of shocked to see it was at 68%.  I know I have Watson with over 20 uncatchable passes which makes his uncatchable passes % at least 9%, which is 3% worse than Allen.  If you think completion % is a true indicator of accuracy, then you are really doing yourself a disservice by spouting off what is a clearly ignorant of reality argument.

 

I want to say thank you for actually trying a similar exercise to see if my assessment of Allen lines up with other similar analyses.

 

There are a few Foxxy pals posting in this thread who just baselessly categorize the analysis as ill-conceived, among other things, when I genuinely wanted them to actually try it themselves and post their conclusions, like you are.

 

But I think some are just more comfortable with strident negativity and the general narrative that Allen is inaccurate.

Edited May 21, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[Bing Bong]

On 5/19/2019 at 12:36 PM, Nextmanup said:

You're basically saying you don't care that Allen is inaccurate, as long as he can somehow magically transform into an accurate passer when it matters most in a game.  It doesn't work that way.

 

Of course Allen has a ton of athleticism and did some impressive things on a football field, mostly with his legs.

 

I'll give you 2 guys he reminds me a lot of:  Tim Tebow and Collin Kaepernick.  Did anyone ever accuse either of those guys of NOT being tremendous athletes?  And while we are on that topic ever notice that Tom Brady does NOT appear to be a tremendous, natural athlete?  

 

It ain't just about athleticism, brother!

  

 

No I'm not saying that. I'm saying accuracy has diminishing returns. If Josh Allen is as inaccurate as Tim Tebow he won't cut it in this league. The difference in accuracy between Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers with a cannon isn't so bad as the difference between Tim Tebow and Cam Newton. Cam is accurate enough with complimentary skills to excel. And he's not Tim Tebow good lord, Tim couldn't hit the simplest routes throwing outs 4 yards out of bounds.

 

He's accurate enough to make big plays and has tons of other quarterback skills going for him to make him special in his own right. Brett Favre had a cannon, great instincts, and other attributes to make him much more successful than more accurate quarterbacks. 

 

As to Josh Allen not being able to magically transform into an accurate passer late in the game, sure he won't.. but he has late game intangibles and an arm to hit routes other quarterbacks can't. I don't care if he's relatively inaccurate to other quarterbacks in the league so long as he can throw a bullet to Foster when it counts. He can go incompletion, incompletion, incompletion, AMAZING TD on a game winning drive. 25% completion oh my! He didn't get magically accurate in that scenario but he's good enough to make the play and get the win. I don't care so long as accuracy isn't an Achilles hill for him. It doesn't limit him from using the hundreds of other quarterback traits that could make him great.

 

I hate talking about Josh Allen by this point, beating every topic to death. Very little has happened to change his NFL accomplishments since his last down, which was several months ago. I liked what I saw last year, and am excited and anxious to see him next year. I think he still is a lot like how he viewed him his rookie year, except he proved his floor is much higher than draft day and his exceptionally high ceiling remains the same.

[Dr. Who]

10 hours ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

he proved his floor is much higher than draft day and his exceptionally high ceiling remains the same.

That's the key and I think your assessment is correct.

[Foxx]

17 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I want to say thank you for actually trying a similar exercise to see if my assessment of Allen lines up with other similar analyses.

 

There are a few Foxxy pals posting in this thread who just baselessly categorize the analysis as ill-conceived, among other things, when I genuinely wanted them to actually try it themselves and post their conclusions, like you are.

 

But I think some are just more comfortable with strident negativity and the general narrative that Allen is inaccurate.

lol. 

 

baselessly huh?

 

it is ill conceived because it doesn't matter, one iota.

 

the only thing and i repeat... the only thing that matters is the completion percentage, period. it is an accurate gauge of what a QB is doing.

 

explain it all away anyway you like... 

it.

doesn't.

matter.

 

who gives a ***** what anyone outside of Bills nation thinks? i like Allen a lot and think he is the best shot we have had at the QB position (as evidenced by my jersey purchase) since Kelly. that doesn't mean he is however.

 

believe it or not trans, i like you. i just know your track record and how horrible it has been at judging QBs. it is with that forethought that i can't help but be extremely skeptical of any analysis you dream up. you did the same for ... how many other Bills QBs that were not the answer?

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, Foxx said:

lol. 

 

baselessly huh?

 

it is ill conceived because it doesn't matter, one iota.

 

the only thing and i repeat... the only thing that matters is the completion percentage, period. it is an accurate gauge of what a QB is doing.

 

explain it all away anyway you like... 

it.

doesn't.

matter.

 

Completion percentage is what correlates most with team success, but because so many factors go into completion percentage separate from actual QB accuracy--QB & WR communication, WRs ability to catch, tips and batted passes, Throwaways and Spikes, QB decision making, etc--this actually does matter in terms of the conversation as to how to increase that completion percentage.

 

And I'd bet you anything Beane & Co. analyzed the tape for the purpose of having the very same conversation.

 

Notice how offense-heavy we went this offseason?

 

Start off by cutting our least reliable pass catcher over the year and then go out and get one proven speedster WR and another who was 4th in the league last year (pretty sure that's right) in catching balls on plays he was targeted.

 

Then you bolster the crap outta your OL so that you give your young QB time and Windows to make good decisions and throw the ball.

 

It matters in the grand scheme of our current year 1 to year 2 conversation because all any of us want to see is a successful Allen. 

 

The point, really, is that his distance from rookie QB to Franchise QB isn't greater than that distance is for the typical rookie QB as far as passing accuracy goes.

 

It matters in this grand offseason sports message board conversation we have. Of course, since you're here on this sports message board, I assume you believe this grand offseason sports message board conversation we have every year is meaningful.

 

And if you don't, why don't you go fishing in an actual body of water rather than on the Internet until the season starts?

 

5 hours ago, Foxx said:

 

who gives a ***** what anyone outside of Bills nation thinks? i like Allen a lot and think he is the best shot we have had at the QB position (as evidenced by my jersey purchase) since Kelly. that doesn't mean he is however.

 

believe it or not trans, i like you. i just know your track record and how horrible it has been at judging QBs. it is with that forethought that i can't help but be extremely skeptical of any analysis you dream up. you did the same for ... how many other Bills QBs that were not the answer?

 

And I like you. 

 

I get some right. I get some wrong.

 

I feel good about Allen.

 

If you need to calm your mind somehow, just remember that even broken clocks are right twice a day 

[thebandit27]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Completion percentage is what correlates most with team success

 

Just an FYI: 5 of the top 12 teams in regular-season team completion %age did not make the playoffs in 2018.

 

On the contrary, the passing stat that seems to matter most is YPA.  For contextual purposes, 9 of the top 13 teams in team YPA made the playoffs in 2018.

 

You could also make the argument that Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt has the highest correlation, since 10 of the top 13 teams in team ANYA made the playoffs in 2018.

 

In the end, what matters is this: can the QB make the throw he needs to make when he needs to make it? 

 

If we're attempting to address that question, then I think that there are a handful of examples that would support the idea that Allen can indeed make the critical throw, and slightly fewer examples that would support the idea that he can't.

[Gugny]

4 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

In the end, what matters is this: can the QB make the throw he needs to make when he needs to make it? 

 

BINGO.  This is why Tyrod's stats were so deceiving.  Stats are nice and can be pretty (or not).  Situational stats are what matter most.