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Is this a fair way to evaluate a NFL Head Coach


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NFL coaches get paid millions of dollars (while EMT's who save lives often make less than 40k) , so I never worry about if they are being treated "fairly" or "given a chance". Life is not fair, and they are on the very long side of life's teeter totter as it is. 

There are so many variables that it is truly difficult to evaluate the head coach.  Has PFF or any of the other analytic sites applied there "every play" analysis to coaching?  That might be interesting. 

 

Short of that, is it reasonable to evaluate each of 16 games and judge whether better coaching would have resulted in a win rather than a loss.  

For example in a game where you were forced to throw out Derek Anderson vs the Patriots, better Bills coaching was not changing the outcome. 

Whereas the Dolphins and Jets games seem to be the only ones that could have been won with better coaching decisions (at least to my eyeballs). This means the most games any coach could have won with this team was 8.  So McDermott scores a 75. I don't know if this is good, bad or average. 

Of course this leaves out the important decisions on which players to keep, cut, make active on game day, and the important aspect of developing the players (crappy  talent results in part from crappy coaching). 

The followup question is how many  wins do the top  coaches leave a fields because of coaching errors in a given year? 

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27 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Asking if better coaching would have impacted the outcome is an incredibly complex, subjective piece of reasoning.

 

Tough to turn that into a hard line calculus.

 

 

I am applying a few simple rules.  If my daughter can determine what offensive play call is called by the offense in a critical situation and it fails, and I scream. I count that against the coach. If I am screaming "call time out, call time out" and then a minute later saying "why the f did he call a time out now, i hold that against the coach" That is not very sophisticated. 


In serious I am not trying to play chess and make adjustments for both teams. Just in games the coach lost, were there sufficient clear opportunities for the coach to changethe outcome of the game.  My original question was whether or not PFF has applied there concept. It would be a lot of subjectivity, but no more so than for a number of other evaluations they do. 

4 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

You are what your record says you are. 

so your theory is that all talent levels in the NFL are equal.  I am grading you out as an F for that. 

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44 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

so your theory is that all talent levels in the NFL are equal.  I am grading you out as an F for that. 

Not my theory.  I was quoting HOF coach Bill Parcells.  I'm grading you an F for your lack of knowledge that I was quoting coach Parcells.  You also get an F for not realizing that a 15-1 team has more talent than a 1-15 team. 

Edited by Albany,n.y.
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27 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I don’t think you can fairly evaluate a HC on his decision-making.   Too subjective.

 

To a certain extent, I think a PFF could evaluate the roster and then calculate expected wins.   Then look at actual wins.

 

 

 

Coach WAR.  Sounds like the next new generation stat. 

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4 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Not my theory.  I was quoting HOF coach Bill Parcells.  I'm grading you an F for your lack of knowledge that I was quoting coach Parcells.  You also get an F for not realizing that a 15-1 team has more talent than a 1-15 team. 

There is the old adage that, “ he can take a his’n and beat a your’n and he take a your’n and beat a his’n” 

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