How long to close the competitive gap?

[reddogblitz]

1 hour ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

 

Oh I totally agree, especially the game in NE was troubling because it looked like they were sleepwalking through it and it wasn't even competitive. 

 

It was 12-6 after 3 quarters.  We were in it until you know who threw you know what.

[Tenhigh]

16 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

A 3rd year plan with no playoffs (accounting for the weird fluke that was last year) is unacceptable. Other new regimes pull it off all of the time by year 3. It’s on them to do it. Barring an extreme injury situation, no excuses. 

But they actually made the playoffs in year 1.   To me, that means that 2018 season was their new year 1. I give them 2 more full seasons, but I don't think they'll need it, I think they're going to be a damn good team in 2019.

[teef]

53 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I did embellish what you said............but at this point in Bills fandom it should be sacrilege to suggest that change for the sake of change is in any way necessary.

 

I'd like to see somebody show me all the instances at the time of Rex Ryan's firing where anyone of note said that the roster needed to be torn down and the locker room blown up and that the likes of Watkins/Glenn/Gilmore/Darby/Woods were a big part of the problem.

 

Because that never happened.

 

The two topics were Rex sucking as a coach and Tyrod not being good enough as a QB.

 

That was it.

 

To paraphrase Whaley speaking for the Pegula's "7-9 wasn't good enough" with that roster.

 

McD created another narrative altogether because IMO he WANTED a less complicated slate(with somewhat lowered expectations) where his utter lack of HC'ing experience on any level wouldn't create a first impression that he could not overcome among the most powerful portion of the team,  the cornerstone young vets approaching or recently signed to second contracts.

 

Hence the purge.

 

I give him credit for making A LOT of changes to how he operates........he surely wasn't hired with the Pegula's thinking he would make Peterman-level miscalculations..........but at least he's adapted.

 

The question is whether or not he has another level he can get to as a HC or if he's just another Jauron/Gailey type who has risen to their level and that's it.

embellish?  it was a little more than that.

 

i'm not responding to what you wrote because i'm trying to be difficult.  i'm just flying around here right now and can't give it the time it deserves.  not ignoring you here.

[LSHMEAB]

11 minutes ago, Tenhigh said:

But they actually made the playoffs in year 1.   To me, that means that 2018 season was their new year 1. I give them 2 more full seasons, but I don't think they'll need it, I think they're going to be a damn good team in 2019.

What in the world? So because they squeaked into the playoffs in year 1, that gets them three extra lives like in a video game? I don't buy it. And since we're at it, this team has won close games under McDermott and I've given him credit for that. HOWEVER, every single time they fall down by a few scores, there's a whole lot of quit which leads to the inordinate number of blowouts. Everyone blamed Tyrod in year 1. Year two, Allen is a rookie I suppose. There is absolutely no excuse for multiple blowouts next season. It's alarming and needs to change ASAP.

 

 

 

[PlayoffsPlease]

1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

I think many of us are thinking about this in a regime specific way.

 

It wouldn't be ideal to go 10-6 and get bounced in the first round, but it would certainly be enough to warrant hope for the future and continuity with the FO/Coaching staff.

 

Anything less than 9 wins and the ownership should seriously consider the direction of the team.

My point is that for a long time, its a one year at a time analysis. If they win 10 in 2019, I definitely keep them. If they win 6, I take the issue under advisement. 

If they win 10 in 2019, but then win 6 in 2020, I am taking the issue under advisement. 

If they win 10 in 2019 and win a playoff game, and then win 10 in 2020 and win a playoff game, I am offering the whole staff thee to five year extensions at that point. 

[Tenhigh]

8 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

What in the world? So because they squeaked into the playoffs in year 1, that gets them three extra lives like in a video game? I don't buy it. And since we're at it, this team has won close games under McDermott and I've given him credit for that. HOWEVER, every single time they fall down by a few scores, there's a whole lot of quit which leads to the inordinate number of blowouts. Everyone blamed Tyrod in year 1. Year two, Allen is a rookie I suppose. There is absolutely no excuse for multiple blowouts next season. It's alarming and needs to change ASAP.

 

 

 

It's pretty simple.  McD made the playoffs, which is more than the 7 previous head coaches (not counting Lynn) could claim.  It buys some goodwill and loyalty, and is generally how the world works.

 

I'm not sure who you're arguing against with your comments regarding blowouts.   

 

 

Edited January 14, 2019 by Tenhigh

[LSHMEAB]

9 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

My point is that for a long time, its a one year at a time analysis. If they win 10 in 2019, I definitely keep them. If they win 6, I take the issue under advisement. 

If they win 10 in 2019, but then win 6 in 2020, I am taking the issue under advisement. 

If they win 10 in 2019 and win a playoff game, and then win 10 in 2020 and win a playoff game, I am offering the whole staff thee to five year extensions at that point. 

No disagreement. The Bills related issue I'm having at the moment is that people are ALREADY creating excuses for 2019. I'm sick and tired of excuses and hope and I don't understand this blind allegiance to a couple of guys who really haven't proven jack squat.

 

They don't have to win the Superbowl, but a HC going into his third season with a 15-17 record damn well better be ready to provide some results. I think the reason many of the cynics are becoming even more suspicious is the ready made excuses seeping in for next season. I don't know. I guess I'm weird because I expect the Bills to be among the 35% of teams to be playing in the postseason in a regime's third season. I expect them to be competitive and even eek out a win at home against the top dog in year three. I expect them to be well ahead of the Jets and the Dolphins who have just fired their HC's. Like I said, it's probably just a personal problem.

6 minutes ago, Tenhigh said:

It's pretty simple.  McD made the playoffs, which is more than the 7 previous head coaches (not counting Lynn) could claim.  It buys some goodwill and loyalty, and is generally how the world works.

 

I'm not sure who you're arguing against with your comments regarding blowouts.   

 

 

How come it's fair game to bring up the 7 previous head coach's who didn't squeak into the playoffs when it's not fair to associate the current regime with 20 years of futility? The past is irrelevant. If these guys are not the answer, you move on. If they make a significant step forward next season, everyone can have a good chuckle at the expense of the naysayers.

Edited January 14, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[SoTier]

18 hours ago, Ga boy said:

I'm not that impressed with most of the playoff teams I watched the past 2 weeks.  The games were mostly hard to watch.  Pats, Rams, Chiefs, and Saints are the best this year;  however,  Pats and Saints will be falling off soon once the QBs exit.  We're not that far from being competitive with the other 27 teams.  I see us getting there with 4 key players:  2 OL, 1 WR, and a pass rusher.  Also, the playoffs validate once again that QB is key, and we've got ours now.  I look forward to being regular participants in the January games into the 20s.  Go Bills!!  

 

ROTFLMAO.  You need to take off your Bills-colored glasses, dude, and watch other teams besides the Bills.  FTR, the Bills got thrashed by the Ravens, the Chargers, the Colts, the Pats twice, and by the Bears.   Maybe you forgot about those?  For good measure, they also got beat by the Texans even though DeShaun Watson was playing with a partially collapsed lung, and managed to beat the Titans with Mariota limited by his elbow injury.  The Bills are not even in the same league as KC or the Rams offensively, and their defense isn't nearly as good as the Rams or the Bears' D.  That's not even considering the other excellent teams that missed the playoffs because they were inconsistent: Atlanta, Carolina, Green Bay, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh.  

 

As for the "end is near" scenario for the Pats because Brady declines/retires, that's been a false hope for Bills fans for a decade, and there's no indication that Brees is planning on retiring, although if he wins another Lombardo, he might.  Of course the Saints do have Tony Bridgewater on their roster whom they may re-sign if Brees leaves.   The Ravens, Colts, Bears, Texans, Rams, Eagles, Cowboys, and Chiefs all have top notch young QBs have proven themselves.  That's not even considering some up and coming teams that are likely to be playoff contenders beginning in 2019 like the Browns who actually had a mathematical chance to make the playoffs as late as week 16 or 17.

 

The Bills have no offense.   The lack of talent on offense is simply appalling. They don't have any real good offensive prospects except for Allen -- and most of their offensive roster is non-NFL caliber.  I've been saying all season that the Bills are setting Allen up to fail because they haven't given him any help in terms of talent, and I will continue to stand by that until I see the team make significant improvements to the quality of players on the offensive side of the ball.  The sad reality is that the two areas where the Bills need the most help -- OL and WRs -- are also two units where it's the hardest to have "quick fixes" via rookies having immediate impact.  It usually takes two or three years for OLers and WRs to come into their own -- if they ever do.  Furthermore, McDermott and Beane have given no indication whatsoever that they can recognize offensive talent even when it hits them in the face.

 

I don't have a time frame for McDermott/Beane to "close the competitive gap" because I don't believe they have the ability to do so.  They are lacking in player personnel knowledge themselves, they've filled their staffs with "friends and family", and their "money ball" philosophy is wrong headed if the goal is to actually win football games rather than con fans into believing that the team will actually improve "if only ....".

 

One more note: making the playoffs in the NFL is a whole lot harder than it is in the NHL, and it's taken the Sabres 7 years to climb to "middle of the pack" -- and Pegula is a "hockey guy".

[PlayoffsPlease]

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

No disagreement. The Bills related issue I'm having at the moment is that people are ALREADY creating excuses for 2019. I'm sick and tired of excuses and hope and I really don't understand this blind allegiance to a couple of guys who really haven't proven jack squat.

 

They don't have to win the Superbowl, but a HC going into his third season with a 15-17 record damn well better be ready to provide some results. I think the reason many of the cynics are becoming even more suspicious is the ready made excuses seeping in for next season. I don't know. I guess I'm weird because I expect the Bills to be among the 35% of teams to be playing in the postseason in a regime's third season. I expect them to be competitive and even eek out a win at home against the top dog in year three. I expect them to be well ahead of the Jets and the Dolphins who have just fired their HC's. Like I said, it's probably just a personal problem.

Most Every NFL team is in the playoffs with some frequency.  35% of the teams make the playoffs every year. It is not that big of an accomplishment.  Sometimes former super bowl winners like the Raven's Harbaugh are considered on the hot seat for not delivering recent results.  Many Bengals fans would say that "continuity" just let to a decade of futility under Marvin Lewis.  Bills fans are truly scarred. The think a playoff winning coach is such a rare commodity that you must keep that person for ever.   There are three levels of coaching 1) gets more out of the team than the talent would suggest 2) gets the expected results out of the talent 3) gets below expected results based on talent. 

You can be in the first category without having a winning record.   I don't know where to place McDermott.  The talent on offense is awful.  He can't catch the balls for the players.  But Mcdermott thinks the position coaching is bad too (he fired several).   The handling of QBs, the high number of penalties,  weak offensive play calling, piss poor clock management and hiring the wrong positional coaches don't really indicate a strong head coach though. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree. It did not have to be this way and you know I more than almost anyone called the Peterman mistake out from the start. But the Pegulas hired McDermott on Beane on the basis of hitting reset. They managed by hook or by crook to make the playoffs before really getting into full reset mode. To say it is now or never in 2019 is just a year premature for me. 

 

I don't want to say NOBODY saw the Rex firing coming before that season.........but it seemed utterly improbable...........and to go from there to being fired before the season even ended when he was so tight with The Pegs and on a 5 year deal was a long distance traveled in a short period of time.

 

It can easily happen and frankly McD is further along in the process than Rex and I do question whether The Pegs were in fact buying a potential 4-5 year rebuild like you are suggesting.........I just thoroughly doubt that and even if they were thinking 3 years I bet seeing what Pederson and McVay have done might have changed their perspective some.

 

I think they expected the team to be in contention in year 3.

 

There are just a lot of scenarios that might play out that are hard to envision now though.........the same way it was hard to envision some of the Rex fails........even if you hated Rex.?

 

For instance........let's say that Daboll and Allen really hit it off and do well next year.........but the team struggles with game management issues.......or late defensive collapses or more special teams boners and loses a bunch of winnable games.    Daboll becomes a hot HC candidate for his work with Allen.    Does Pegula let McD go into year 3 on the hot seat WITHOUT the coach who is the most connected to the teams most important player..........and a local guy at that?    

 

A LOT can play out over the course of a full offseason and a season.

 

I guess the only real question is do you think the Bills could easily find a better coach than McDermott?

 

I do.

 

But even there.......there is always the scenario where The Pegs want to go outside the organization but are afraid to cut bait on McD with a looming work stoppage in 2021 restricting their market for quality HC's in 2020.

 

A LOT can happen. 

[Tenhigh]

39 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

How come it's fair game to bring up the 7 previous head coach's who didn't squeak into the playoffs when it's not fair to associate the current regime with 20 years of futility? The past is irrelevant. If these guys are not the answer, you move on. If they make a significant step forward next season, everyone can have a good chuckle at the expense of the naysayers.

Apples and oranges.  Some folks are trying to make these guys responsible for the misdeeds of their predecessors, and count their 17 years of suck in with what McD and Bean are doing.  I'm just saying they did what their predecessors did not, and it's bought some goodwill with me, a season ticket holding fan.  It didn't for you, Scott and that cranky pants from Jamestown? 

[Nextmanup]

58 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

What in the world? So because they squeaked into the playoffs in year 1, that gets them three extra lives like in a video game? I don't buy it. And since we're at it, this team has won close games under McDermott and I've given him credit for that. HOWEVER, every single time they fall down by a few scores, there's a whole lot of quit which leads to the inordinate number of blowouts. Everyone blamed Tyrod in year 1. Year two, Allen is a rookie I suppose. There is absolutely no excuse for multiple blowouts next season. It's alarming and needs to change ASAP.

 

 

 

I would compare year 1 of this regime to the economy in year 1 of a new Presidency.  Whatever is happening in that first year is the fallout from previous years and previous actions by other people; the new President shouldn't be blamed for a bad economy or praised for a good one.

 

All excuses stop next year for everyone.

 

For McBeane, the good news is they have huge cap space and a bunch of draft picks.

 

For McBeane, the bad news is they have huge cap space and a bunch of draft picks.

If it doesn't go right, they are going to be in trouble.

 

 

 

[ColdFront_USAF]

3 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

I completely disagree with this assessment. By selling a complete rebuild to ownership, they've essentially bought themselves time. Nothing ballsy about it. Ballsy is coming in and saying we're gonna get this thing done quickly and this is how.

 

Then we'll agree to disagree. I don't think they bought themselves time with the rebuild. I think they would have had most if not all of their initial contract to prove themselves, because it would not be a good look for the Pegs to fire yet another FO within a few seasons. You can't expect good coaches to want to come here if they know they won't be given a shot. 

 

This regime had the pieces to play it safe. They could have stuck with TT, kept players they didn't want for lack of better options, and had a team that was a perennial "in the hunt" team towards the end of the season that would rely on a top 5 defense as well as good luck in the tiebreaker scenarios to make it. Instead, they tore it down to try to make it better faster. I think it's pretty ballsy to gamble your career on yourself the way they did, when they could have guaranteed a longer tenure here by playing it safe and "backing it in" to the playoffs a few more times. Want any proof, look at the Bengals. 

[LSHMEAB]

2 minutes ago, ColdFront_USAF said:

 

Then we'll agree to disagree. I don't think they bought themselves time with the rebuild. I think they would have had most if not all of their initial contract to prove themselves, because it would not be a good look for the Pegs to fire yet another FO within a few seasons. You can't expect good coaches to want to come here if they know they won't be given a shot. 

 

This regime had the pieces to play it safe. They could have stuck with TT, kept players they didn't want for lack of better options, and had a team that was a perennial "in the hunt" team towards the end of the season that would rely on a top 5 defense as well as good luck in the tiebreaker scenarios to make it. Instead, they tore it down to try to make it better faster. I think it's pretty ballsy to gamble your career on yourself the way they did, when they could have guaranteed a longer tenure here by playing it safe and "backing it in" to the playoffs a few more times. Want any proof, look at the Bengals. 

Nah. Had they just come in and tweaked the roster and drafted a QB, the expectations would be higher. Their seats would already be burning after a collective 15-17 record over 2 years. As it stands, they seem to have at least two more years to get it right. 

 

There'd be absolutely no reason Pegs couldn't just fire them after year 2 or 3 if they didn't get it done. It happens all over the league and teams have no trouble finding coaches. Maybe you get a bad rap if you're constantly firing guys after 1 year, but that's not what we're talking about.

 

They definitely played it safe as it pertains to career longeivity. 

[reddogblitz]

1 hour ago, Tenhigh said:

It's pretty simple.  McD made the playoffs, which is more than the 7 previous head coaches (not counting Lynn) could claim.  It buys some goodwill and loyalty, and is generally how the world works.

 

As a point of reference, the Fish under Gase made the playoffs in year 1 and Gase was canned after year 3 with a .500 record.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I don't want to say NOBODY saw the Rex firing coming before that season.........but it seemed utterly improbable...........and to go from there to being fired before the season even ended when he was so tight with The Pegs and on a 5 year deal was a long distance traveled in a short period of time.

 

It can easily happen and frankly McD is further along in the process than Rex and I do question whether The Pegs were in fact buying a potential 4-5 year rebuild like you are suggesting.........I just thoroughly doubt that and even if they were thinking 3 years I bet seeing what Pederson and McVay have done might have changed their perspective some.

 

I think they expected the team to be in contention in year 3.

 

There are just a lot of scenarios that might play out that are hard to envision now though.........the same way it was hard to envision some of the Rex fails........even if you hated Rex.?

 

For instance........let's say that Daboll and Allen really hit it off and do well next year.........but the team struggles with game management issues.......or late defensive collapses or more special teams boners and loses a bunch of winnable games.    Daboll becomes a hot HC candidate for his work with Allen.    Does Pegula let McD go into year 3 on the hot seat WITHOUT the coach who is the most connected to the teams most important player..........and a local guy at that?    

 

A LOT can play out over the course of a full offseason and a season.

 

I guess the only real question is do you think the Bills could easily find a better coach than McDermott?

 

I do.

 

But even there.......there is always the scenario where The Pegs want to go outside the organization but are afraid to cut bait on McD with a looming work stoppage in 2021 restricting their market for quality HC's in 2020.

 

A LOT can happen. 

 

I disagree with almost all of your take on this. If the Bills go 8-8 or better I think there is almost no chance that the Pegulas fire McDermott. 

 

Pegula nearly fired Rex after one year. And he should have done. 

 

As for could they easily find a better coach? I am not sure they could, no. I am not a big fan of the 2019 batch of hires. Not sure I'd swap McDermott straight up for any of them. 

[Tenhigh]

9 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

As a point of reference, the Fish under Gase made the playoffs in year 1 and Gase was canned after year 3 with a .500 record.

Point of reference,  yes, but we will never know whether that was the right move or not for the long term success of the Fins. 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I disagree with almost all of your take on this. If the Bills go 8-8 or better I think there is almost no chance that the Pegulas fire McDermott. 

 

Pegula nearly fired Rex after one year. And he should have done. 

 

As for could they easily find a better coach? I am not sure they could, no. I am not a big fan of the 2019 batch of hires. Not sure I'd swap McDermott straight up for any of them. 

 

 

Well be honest now...........would you have liked the Doug Pederson or Sean McVay hirings any better than the McDermott hiring.......at the time they were made?

 

Two CLEARLY better HC's with shorter resumes in lesser roles than McD when hired. 

 

I might be picking low fruit here because you repeated all season how certain you were that the Eagles weren't going to make the playoffs this year.

 

 

[Boatdrinks]

18 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

As a point of reference, the Fish under Gase made the playoffs in year 1 and Gase was canned after year 3 with a .500 record.

However, the Fish were blown out in their last game and Tannehill was a seventh year starterwho has yet to look “ franchise”.It all comes down to if the ownership feels the team is headed in the right direction and has confidence in the HC & GM. If they do not, 3 years is about normal for changes to be made these days. Josh Allen will be a second year starter next season, and I’m sure that and other factors will be taken into account. There is no set rule or parameters. 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Well be honest now...........would you have liked the Doug Pederson or Sean McVay hirings any better than the McDermott hiring.......at the time they were made?

 

Two CLEARLY better HC's with shorter resumes in lesser roles than McD when hired. 

 

I might be picking low fruit here because you repeated all season how certain you were that the Eagles weren't going to make the playoffs this year.

 

 

 

I liked the McVay hiring and said so at the time. I said he'd get Goff performing. In all honesty I was ambivalent about the Pederson hiring but I hate the Eagles more than the Patriots so I am not particularly objective when it comes to them. I think Pederson did a really good job to turn that around this year and bring his team back together.