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538: You ran the ball on first down. You’re already screwed.


DCOrange

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1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

Other than sneaks(which is too effective not to use), I hate Allen's designed runs. I don't have the stats, but they were not particularly effective if memory serves. He's at his best when the play breaks down and he takes off from there.

 

He scored a couple TDs this year with the option play. I bet that stays in our goal line package. He's going to get better at reading when it isn't there and throwing it. That was one of the areas I thought he improved over the last two games. 

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14 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

By the time Election Day rolled around, 538 gave Trump a 29% chance of winning. New York Times tracked a bunch of sites that do similar calculations and the other contemporaries gave Trump a 15%, 8%, 2%, and 1% chance while Vegas gave him an 18% chance. So while Trump defied the odds according to everyone, 538 gave him more of a chance than anybody else.

538 gave him roughly the equivalent of an 8 point dog winning straight up. Not even remotely close to a wild upset. Some people aren't into data I suppose.

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4 hours ago, mannc said:

So all the NFL teams that have invested millions of dollars on analytics and are making multi-million dollar decisions based on analytics (which is almost all of them) are just throwing away their time and money?  Ok...

I didn’t say they aren’t worth it, I just said it’s resistant to analytics as a sport compared to something like baseball or hockey.

 

Just because someone throws money at it doesn’t mean it works as intended. Where are the solar panels at?

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That website is run by the most sanctimonious asshats on the planet. Every employee of that place needs to have a pineapple shoveled up their ass, backwards. They are that asinine.

Edited by Paulus
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13 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

I didn’t say they aren’t worth it, I just said it’s resistant to analytics as a sport compared to something like baseball or hockey.

 

Just because someone throws money at it doesn’t mean it works as intended. Where are the solar panels at?

I agree that football analytics are more complicated than in other sports, where it’s easier to isolate performance and the factors affecting it.  I thought you were throwing the baby out with the bath water...

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4 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

A major component is how you are as a 3rd down offense. Allen and Co were good on 3rd&5 or less and their chances at a first down dropped dramatically beyond that. If we can get to 3rd and short , With his running ability, we'll be okay, regardless if we Rush -rush or pass-pass , 3rd down is key 

I suspect that reflects the averages league wide. 

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4 hours ago, DCOrange said:

 

By the time Election Day rolled around, 538 gave Trump a 29% chance of winning. New York Times tracked a bunch of sites that do similar calculations and the other contemporaries gave Trump a 15%, 8%, 2%, and 1% chance while Vegas gave him an 18% chance. So while Trump defied the odds according to everyone, 538 gave him more of a chance than anybody else.

 

And yet, mercifully was wrong in a big way.

 

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On 1/11/2019 at 4:31 PM, DCOrange said:

Not really all that surprising but here’s another one of those articles that bucks the standard coaching philosophies. 

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-called-a-run-on-first-down-youre-already-screwed/

 

This article is mostly breaking down how Rush-Rush-Pass sucks for NFL teams, and they're right!

We've seen that year after year in Buffalo, as coaches are stuck trying to hide whatever QB is behind center's flaws & rush as much as possible. Last season with Tyrod it was miserable, as it resulted in us leading the league in 3 & outs, yet it seemed like the coaches felt it was still better odds than Tyrod throwing the ball.

 

Rushing the ball on first down seems to only be effective if you've got creative play calling, where the opposing team genuinely doesn't know what you're planning on doing, and with play action being a viable threat. 

 

Anyway, interesting article, and good information.

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57 minutes ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

Tell that to the Rams tonight after whooping the Cowboys

 

It shows right there in the article that the Rams are one of the few teams to have success with the Rush-Rush-Pass pattern.

They have the 2nd highest success rate (2nd to Pittsburgh), succeeding 60% of the time and actually have a positive EPA (+0.28). 

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