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Just How Bad Was Buffalo's Run Game Aside from Josh Allen?


thebandit27

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6 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Team                   Rush Att             YDS                   QB                   Rush Att            YDS              Non-QB YPC

Baltimore              547                   2441              Jackson                147                 695                   4.37

Houston                472                   2021                Watson                99                   551                   3.94

Chicago                 468                  1938                Trubisky               68                   421                   3.79

Carolina                 416                  2136               Newton                  101                 488                  5.23

Jacksonville         416                   1723              Bortles                   58                   365                   3.79

Seattle                   534                   2560                Wilson                  67                  376                   4.68

Tennessee            454                   2023              Mariota                  64                  357                    4.27

Dallas                     439                  1963               Prescott                75                  305                    4.55

TB                           389                  1523            Winston/Fitz            85                  433                    3.59

Buffalo                  468                   1984              Allen                       89                 631                    3.57

 

I think that it’s an interesting point-of-note that of the “rushing-est” QBs in the league that only one is a franchise QB but that’s entirely because of his passing numbers. 

 

Having said that, TD/INT ratio is a far better indicator as to franchise QBs. 

 

Wilson’s was 5/1 this season and is 3.1/1 career.

 

The others’ this season were as follows: 

 

Watson’s is 2.9/1

Trubisky 2/1

Newton 1.8/1

Jackson 2/1

Bortles 1.2/1

Prescott 2.8/1

Mariota 1.4/1

Winston 1.4/1

Fitzpatrick 1.4/1

Allen  .8/1 

 

Point being that no QB made franchise status predicated upon his rushing much less his raw athleticism. 

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6 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

I think that it’s an interesting point-of-note that of the “rushing-est” QBs in the league that only one is a franchise QB but that’s entirely because of his passing numbers. 

 

Having said that, TD/INT ratio is a far better indicator as to franchise QBs. 

 

Wilson’s was 5/1 this season and is 3.1/1 career.

 

The others’ this season were as follows: 

 

Watson’s is 2.9/1

Trubisky 2/1

Newton 1.8/1

Jackson 2/1

Bortles 1.2/1

Prescott 2.8/1

Mariota 1.4/1

Winston 1.4/1

Fitzpatrick 1.4/1

Allen  .8/1 

 

Point being that no QB made franchise status predicated upon his rushing much less his raw athleticism. 

 

Well done missing the point of this thread. 

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27 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

It was lousy OL play plus a mismatch between blocking scheme and RB style in Shady's case.

 

That's why, imo, it's critical that Daboll have input in the OL coach hire--the blocking scheme needs to match the overall offensive philosophy 

good analysis

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5 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

These stats confirm the 'eye test'.  When I watch games with teams that have a good offensive line I see linemen down field and on their feet after the play.  With the Bills I saw linemen on the ground in the backfield.  It would be interesting the see stats, if they are available, how many of those rushing attempts had first contact behind the LOS. 

 

Especially early in the season, a lot of this was by design (unsuccessful attempts at cut blocking).  These continued through the season especially by the TE. 

 

But even where the blocking was successful and there were holes, we simply couldn't hold the block and neutralize the defender.  The defenders were able to shed the blocks and stuff the run at the LOS or behind.

 

It will be a key question, how much of the unsuccessful blocking schemes was on Daboll and how much on Castillo.

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9 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

I think that it’s an interesting point-of-note that of the “rushing-est” QBs in the league that only one is a franchise QB but that’s entirely because of his passing numbers. 

Point being that no QB made franchise status predicated upon his rushing much less his raw athleticism. 

 

Errrmmmmm....  methinks the point of this thread was to assess what the Bills run game was like independent of Allen.

You're looking for one of the threads about Allen ....down two flights, turn left, end of the hall.

 

 

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2 hours ago, ProcessAccepted said:

Shady still has wheels left. If we go and fix the OL then Shady won't have to dance around like he did last season

He knows that he's approaching the end. I say keep him and add the best young guy we can. Shady still has some left in the tank and is a leader in the locker room. He'll add value for another year, then decide.

He has always danced a little too much. Even when the OL was pretty darn good. It's just who he is. Sometimes it works and most times he losses 2-3yds. Even with the OL (hopefully) getting a lot better next season, I guarantee you will still see him dancing too much majority of the time.

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4 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

Soooo much right with your comments above, Peterman (which you will always be to me :wub:    :P).

 

So many things are so bad that if they improve everything as you stated above and given the rushers we have (which I fully agree with you on) AND, I MIGHT REGRET WRITING THIS, BUT PLEASE LET THIS BE "SUPER HYPOTHETICAL TERRITORY", this team could be 11-5 next year and yet Allen may only be a 24 TD, 3,800 yards passing QB.  In other words it may not be all passing yards and passing tds.  It may matter more just to be plain better everywhere on offense.

 

I know, I know...it is a sin in this day and age to say a QB with those numbers is "good", but it may be the case.

 

GO BILLS!

Much love DtD ?. There will always be a part of PetermanThrew5Picks in me. The loveable curmudgeon that drunkenly felt the need to create an account the second half of last year's Chargers game and spam the specter of organizational incompetence that brought a negative Peterman cloud to my character. That Chargers game will always be the pivotal disillusionment in my Bills fandom. A loss of innocence if you will.

 

(also to be the SaviorPete antogonist the world needed. LOOK AT ME NOW SAVIOR PETE!! If Peterman was Jesus than I was the Antichrist.)

 

but with Peterman finally gone I'm a changed man. I've faced trials and tribulations, an identity crisis and was a wayward soul until Barkley restored my faith in the Bills backup Quarterback position. I will take the mantle as board authority on backup Bills Quarterbacks.

 

I may not know much. I may speak authoritatively on things I know nothing about with absolutely no fact checking (facts are for nerds) But if I've learned anything.. I am obsessed with the backup Quarterback position apparently. And dangit if Matt Barkley didn't make me a more positive and healthy man.

 

I may always be PetermanThrew5Picks to some. But I'm a much more emotionally developed since those dark days.. I am.. BarkleyForGOATBackup.

 

question: HOW DO I CHANGE MY "VET/RFA/PS/PROSPECT" SLOGAN OR WHATEVER IT IS. I ACCIDENTALLY SET IT TO MY EXACT SAME NAME. I WANT TO BE A...

 

PRIMADONNA LOCKERROOM POISON HOLDING OUT FOR MORE PAPER

Edited by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P
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6 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

The run game will magically improve when the O Line does.

 

Guys who can dart through a hole in the line are a dime a dozen in this league.  If there is no hole and the O line gets no push or movement, things bottle up fast!

 

 

O-line made it impossible to run consistently.  Pass protection was also a joke.  Look no further than Indianapolis to see what an improved O-line can do in a one season turn around.  Their two backs are dime a dozen guys and had good seasons because of excellent line play. We can only hope the FO does its homework and brings in the right free agents and/or draft picks.

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1 hour ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

Much love DtD ?. There will always be a part of PetermanThrew5Picks in me. The loveable curmudgeon that drunkenly felt the need to create an account the second half of last year's Chargers game and spam the specter of organizational incompetence that brought a negative Peterman cloud to my character. That Chargers game will always be the pivotal disillusionment in my Bills fandom. A loss of innocence if you will.

 

(also to be the SaviorPete antogonist the world needed. LOOK AT ME NOW SAVIOR PETE!! If Peterman was Jesus than I was the Antichrist.)

 

but with Peterman finally gone I'm a changed man. I've faced trials and tribulations, an identity crisis and was a wayward soul until Barkley restored my faith in the Bills backup Quarterback position. I will take the mantle as board authority on backup Bills Quarterbacks.

 

I may not know much. I may speak authoritatively on things I know nothing about with absolutely no fact checking (facts are for nerds) But if I've learned anything.. I am obsessed with the backup Quarterback position apparently. And dangit if Matt Barkley didn't make me a more positive and healthy man.

 

I may always be PetermanThrew5Picks to some. But I'm a much more emotionally developed since those dark days.. I am.. BarkleyForGOATBackup.

 

question: HOW DO I CHANGE MY "VET/RFA/PS/PROSPECT" SLOGAN OR WHATEVER IT IS. I ACCIDENTALLY SET IT TO MY EXACT SAME NAME. I WANT TO BE A...

 

PRIMADONNA LOCKERROOM POISON HOLDING OUT FOR MORE PAPER

 

Outstanding!

 

Brother, honestly, we are in for some good times in 2019.

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New oline and oline coach will do the trick. Even if we put out the same stable of running backs we'll be fine. McCoy perhaps has lost a step, or perhaps not. In either case, we KNOW the bulk of the problem was with the oline.

 

And if McCoy has lost a step you take a committee approach. We've seen good stuff from Murphy and Ivory.

 

But I do expect we'll bring in some young blood to compete at RB.

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9 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

The truth is in your last paragraph.  No NFL team can recover from losing 3 veteran olineman in 1 season. Shady & Clay pretty much have aged out. They'll first have to evaluate which lineman left are worth salvaging. Dawkins is probably safe as a starter and maybe Mills as a backup RT. After that anything can happen.  Clay will be released this spring but I think McCoy is given 1 final year in Buffalo. Don't know what will happen with Ivory, Murphy and Ford? I can guarantee you we'll draft a RB.  I absolutely love the fact that JA can run. I just want him to tone it down and force himself to develop more pocket skills. The bottom line is everything starts with the OL.....

 

 

Well actually McD inherited a booming business in the backfield and the running game fell off a cliff under his HC'ing in 2017 while Incognito/Wood/Glenn were still with the team(I know Glenn missed time but Dawkins was quite solid in the run game in his stead).   

 

This year it just dropped down another half notch.

 

I've stated this many times........the league average ypc is 4.2.........McCoy averaged 3.9 in 2017.........that's VERY poor..........1.5 ypc less than in 2016.........this year he fell to 3.3.......that's disgustingly bad.   

 

 

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I think three things: the Bills, the Bills media and the fans need to ditch this notion that you “have to get the run game going”. We waste more time on that idea.

 

We need to get more speed on the field at RB and actually call screen passes to that RB.

 

Stop “trying to get to the edge”. Watch today, defenses are too fast and you lose yards almost every time you do that.

 

Bonus, is running out of shotgun really all that great? 

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20 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

When discussing the many factors that affected Josh Allen's ability to operate the offense, one of the ones I've often cited is just how utterly alone he was in producing offense for this team. I regularly cited the fact that he produced over 80% of the team's total offense in games he started, which was easily the most of any rookie QB, and was 2nd only to TB's QB combo in terms of offensive yardage produced by the QB over the course of the season. But one topic that hasn't gotten a deep dive is just how bad the running game was outside of the yards produced by Josh Allen, which is why I've created this thread.

 

Folks, the run game is a huge problem, and it needs to be fixed this offseason.

 

First, let's start with the raw numbers:

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&season=2018&seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=RUSHING&role=TM&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&conference=ALL&d-447263-s=RUSHING_AVERAGE_YARDS

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=0&season=2018&seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&statisticCategory=RUSHING&conference=null&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS

 

Do with them what you will, but I want to focus on the one number that I think tells most of the story: 4.2 YPC.  Is that really that bad, you ask? No, on the surface it isn't.  It's tied for 21st in the NFL, which is below-average, but not abysmal in any sense.  But here's the problem:

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=0&season=2018&seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&statisticCategory=RUSHING&conference=null&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS

 

Not a single player ranking in the top 30 in the NFL in rushing yards...and, of course, there's the fact that Allen lead the team in rushing.

 

I'm not normally a huge fan of "if you remove his rushing yards" type analyses, but in this case, it's important to normalize the non-QB rushing yards across a large enough sample space in order to see just how much of a difference his contributions make to the numbers.  To do so, I took the total rushing numbers from teams whose QBs rushed for 300 or more yards and removed the QB's contributions to see the effect on YPC.  Here's what that looks like:

 

Team                   Rush Att             YDS                   QB                   Rush Att            YDS              Non-QB YPC

Baltimore              547                   2441              Jackson                147                 695                   4.37

Houston                472                   2021                Watson                99                   551                   3.94

Chicago                 468                  1938                Trubisky               68                   421                   3.79

Carolina                 416                  2136               Newton                  101                 488                  5.23

Jacksonville         416                   1723              Bortles                   58                   365                   3.79

Seattle                   534                   2560                Wilson                  67                  376                   4.68

Tennessee            454                   2023              Mariota                  64                  357                    4.27

Dallas                     439                  1963               Prescott                75                  305                    4.55

TB                           389                  1523            Winston/Fitz            85                  433                    3.59

Buffalo                  468                   1984              Allen                       89                 631                    3.57

 

Tampa Bay is the only team that even came close to having as bad a running game as Buffalo...and keep in mind that Buffalo has what most NFL observers would categorize as a solid group of backs, yet that YPC would rank dead last in the NFL if not for Josh Allen basically performing the role of lead back.

 

There's the data set...thoughts?

I hate it when people ask me a question and then answer it without giving me an opportunity to utter a sound. 

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With running QBs often number of yards obtained by RBs goes down but even if you limit comparison to those type of teams production was down.  It was down last year as well which points to OL coach issues.  He was signed before any OC was signed and that was an issue on entire offense I think.

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On 1/11/2019 at 12:12 PM, CommonCents said:

Revamp oline, Revamp the backfield. I don’t care what McCoy fans say, he is toast. If by some miracle he has another season over 4.5

it’s still better to be a year early than a year late. Get a stud in the middle of the draft. 

You can get a stud as a UDFA

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