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Does CFB Championship game end the “they can beat a pro team” stuff finally?

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14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There is some truth to this - I don't think we have even established an agreed data set at this point and so I still feel the argument is being had on misconceptions. I am very happy to have the debate and disagreement about whether kids still in college could overcome the lack of NFL conditioning and the lack of NFL game speed experience. Ultimately that, as you say, is a matter of belief and until the game is played (which it won't be) we can't know the answer.

 

Where I keep re-entering the fray is when inaccurate statements are made about who these players coming out of the University of Alabama programme at the moment ate. We are talking 75% of the 2016 Alabama starting 22 being picked in the first 4 rounds of the NFL draft over a three year period (45% of them 10/22 as 1st rounders). The 2017 team will have similar numbers I think the 2018 team might do even better in that regard, and the 2018 Clemson roster isn't going to be far behind either. This is a new reality and so even if people haven't changed their conclusions about what that would mean in terms of a scoreline if these teams met a bottom end NFL opponent they have to recognise that the evidence for one of the critical factors - comparative talent levels - has changed and changed significantly. We are not talking here about a whole host of guys who will have fruitless NFL careers we are talking about an overwhelming majority of guys who are going to be good contributors on NFL teams.

 

The other thing that I think is getting lost in the conversation is that it’s a 28.5 point spread that started the debate. So “hang with some days” means stay within 4 touchdowns sometimes. 

 

 

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14 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

They held Yannick Ngakoue, Malik Jackson, and Calais Campbell to zero sacks. They would absolutely dominate a college d line.

Again, you think “college d line” instead of 3 1st rounders and a day 2 pick. They aren’t getting dominated by our scrub OL. That’s crazy talk.

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There is some truth to this - I don't think we have even established an agreed data set at this point and so I still feel the argument is being had on misconceptions. I am very happy to have the debate and disagreement about whether kids still in college could overcome the lack of NFL conditioning and the lack of NFL game speed experience. Ultimately that, as you say, is a matter of belief and until the game is played (which it won't be) we can't know the answer.

 

Where I keep re-entering the fray is when inaccurate statements are made about who these players coming out of the University of Alabama programme at the moment ate. We are talking 75% of the 2016 Alabama starting 22 being picked in the first 4 rounds of the NFL draft over a three year period (45% of them 10/22 as 1st rounders). The 2017 team will have similar numbers I think the 2018 team might do even better in that regard, and the 2018 Clemson roster isn't going to be far behind either. This is a new reality and so even if people haven't changed their conclusions about what that would mean in terms of a scoreline if these teams met a bottom end NFL opponent they have to recognise that the evidence for one of the critical factors - comparative talent levels - has changed and changed significantly. We are not talking here about a whole host of guys who will have fruitless NFL careers we are talking about an overwhelming majority of guys who are going to be good contributors on NFL teams.

This ^^^^

 

We need to stop saying “a college team” and look at the actual players. You’ve hit the nail on the head. 75% of their guys were round 4 or higher. How many NFL teams have 10 1st rounders? The talent gap isn’t there. The experience gap is. That is what will decide the game. A pro team wins because they will always be a step ahead. They don’t win because Miller, Bodine and Teller are blowing Wilkins and Lawrence off the ball. Those guys would DOMINATE our interior OL!!

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11 hours ago, NoSaint said:

Weird to say most wouldn’t be walking by halftime but many will be completing 16 games with the following year and nearly all will be playing pro ball within about 2 years.

 

There is a huge difference between being hit by a college player and being hit by an NFL player. We're talking about Alabama playing this game tomorrow, with no additional preparation. Even the best rookies tend to struggle a bit at the start of training camp. It's a big adjustment. They have to warm up to the speed and violence of the pro game. Jonah Williams may turn out to be a good OT in a year or two. But if he goes up against a starting NFL edge rusher tomorrow he will lose that battle 9 times out of 10 and the intensity will hit his body hard. In college, a team like Alabama can start to take their foot off the gas in most games because they will eventually just wear the other team out. In the NFL that is what will happen to them. The NFL players are used to playing 16 professional games a year. Alabama is being thrown into one with zero NFL training and expected to hang with the pros for 60 minutes. That is why I think Alabama could in theory occasionally hang with the worst NFL team for a quarter, if everything went their way. But the longer the game goes on the NFL team would just pull away. If by some miracle the 4th quarter hit and they weren't winning by 28, they could beat Alabama into submission at that point and easily cover the spread.

 

There's so much discussion about the raw talent on Alabama, no one is talking about the fundamentals of the game. It's one thing for Quinnen Williams to win a matchup against Russell Bodine - I don't think anyone here is denying that could happen. But that's not the same thing as Quinnen Williams keeping up with the speed and intensity of an NFL game for 60 minutes before his body has adjusted to that. The way this thread is going you'd think rookie minicamp and training camp were totally useless. How about special teams? No one except me has bothered to mention that. Alabama special teamers would need to block for their punter against former starting college players who now have years of NFL experience. Is their punter even good enough to be a UDFA? I'm guessing they don't have to punt much against college competition. If they played the Bills tomorrow their punter would get quite the workout. I imagine at least 90% of their drives, not counting the ones that end in turnovers, would end with a punt. You think their punt blocking unit would be able to withstand 60 minutes of that punishment? Or would we just be bulldozing them for easy punt blocks by the 4th quarter? If/when Alabama's starters go down with injury, are their depth players also talented enough to hang with NFL players?

 

These are the questions that are lost in a sea of posts about how Alabama is full of NFL prospects. I don't care how many Alabama players will be 1st round draft picks. NFL games are about a lot more than just pure talent.

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I just thought of a documentary I watched on Tony Mandarich.  Sure, he was a bust at the NFL level, but...

 

He said how in his very first NFL game Kevin Greene of the LA Rams put a move on him that left Tony reaching for air, and Green went around him and hit or sacked the QB.  Tony said that literally did not happen one single time in his entire collegiate career, and it made a lasting impact on him.  He immediately realized "Wow, things are different here in the NFL" or words to this effect.

 

Relates to the discussion at hand.

 

 

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1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

There is a huge difference between being hit by a college player and being hit by an NFL player. We're talking about Alabama playing this game tomorrow, with no additional preparation. Even the best rookies tend to struggle a bit at the start of training camp. It's a big adjustment. They have to warm up to the speed and violence of the pro game. Jonah Williams may turn out to be a good OT in a year or two. But if he goes up against a starting NFL edge rusher tomorrow he will lose that battle 9 times out of 10 and the intensity will hit his body hard. In college, a team like Alabama can start to take their foot off the gas in most games because they will eventually just wear the other team out. In the NFL that is what will happen to them. The NFL players are used to playing 16 professional games a year. Alabama is being thrown into one with zero NFL training and expected to hang with the pros for 60 minutes. That is why I think Alabama could in theory occasionally hang with the worst NFL team for a quarter, if everything went their way. But the longer the game goes on the NFL team would just pull away. If by some miracle the 4th quarter hit and they weren't winning by 28, they could beat Alabama into submission at that point and easily cover the spread.

 

There's so much discussion about the raw talent on Alabama, no one is talking about the fundamentals of the game. It's one thing for Quinnen Williams to win a matchup against Russell Bodine - I don't think anyone here is denying that could happen. But that's not the same thing as Quinnen Williams keeping up with the speed and intensity of an NFL game for 60 minutes before his body has adjusted to that. The way this thread is going you'd think rookie minicamp and training camp were totally useless. How about special teams? No one except me has bothered to mention that. Alabama special teamers would need to block for their punter against former starting college players who now have years of NFL experience. Is their punter even good enough to be a UDFA? I'm guessing they don't have to punt much against college competition. If they played the Bills tomorrow their punter would get quite the workout. I imagine at least 90% of their drives, not counting the ones that end in turnovers, would end with a punt. You think their punt blocking unit would be able to withstand 60 minutes of that punishment? Or would we just be bulldozing them for easy punt blocks by the 4th quarter? If/when Alabama's starters go down with injury, are their depth players also talented enough to hang with NFL players?

 

These are the questions that are lost in a sea of posts about how Alabama is full of NFL prospects. I don't care how many Alabama players will be 1st round draft picks. NFL games are about a lot more than just pure talent.

 

So the difference between getting beat into submission by half time and having a successful 16 game season is rookie mini camp (come on, you reeeally wrote that as a meaningful thing???) and surviving training camp? 

 

Jonah Williams might go from winning 25 out of 30 to 26 out of 30 with camp etc.... it isn’t flipping him from a turnstile to brick wall with 18 practices in pads, 40 walk throughs, a new cafeteria, and a coach that was at bama 2 years ago anyway in Daboll.

 

 

Ill agree that especially on special teams it’d be a challenge 

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52 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

So the difference between getting beat into submission by half time and having a successful 16 game season is rookie mini camp (come on, you reeeally wrote that as a meaningful thing???) and surviving training camp? 

 

No, that's the difference in being ready to play 1 NFL game. And just about every rookie struggles in their first NFL game even after months of training and preparation. They're also being supported by their teammates who are mostly NFL veterans. If you take an all college team and put them on a field for 60 minutes against any NFL team tomorrow it will be a bloodbath. Rookie minicamp and training camp are the bare minimum of what they would need because that is their first experience going against NFL players. At that point they are conditioned enough to be in a pro game. Even if every Alabama player went through training camp, if they were all put into their first NFL game together with no veterans around them it would be a major struggle to keep it within 28 points. Maybe it would be possible. But if the game was tomorrow it would not be possible.

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36 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

No, that's the difference in being ready to play 1 NFL game. And just about every rookie struggles in their first NFL game even after months of training and preparation. They're also being supported by their teammates who are mostly NFL veterans. If you take an all college team and put them on a field for 60 minutes against any NFL team tomorrow it will be a bloodbath. Rookie minicamp and training camp are the bare minimum of what they would need because that is their first experience going against NFL players. At that point they are conditioned enough to be in a pro game. Even if every Alabama player went through training camp, if they were all put into their first NFL game together with no veterans around them it would be a major struggle to keep it within 28 points. Maybe it would be possible. But if the game was tomorrow it would not be possible.

 

 

The biggest learning curve there is learning their own new teams scheme without full speed play. That they’ve been in a system together for years neutralizes some of the progress that you are noting as required. 

 

After 3-4 years at school a LB knows what read is required and what hole to hit based on the scheme. Tremaine, for instance, had to learn a new terminology, to call plays in a new scheme, without playing time. That’s the biggest thing in rookie mini camp.

 

There’s some conditioning etc... but the practices are pretty soft and bama isn’t just tossing a weight bench in a field and telling guys to go nuts at this point. 

Edited by NoSaint

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6 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Again, you think “college d line” instead of 3 1st rounders and a day 2 pick. They aren’t getting dominated by our scrub OL. That’s crazy talk.

Yeah, they are. Sorry. They go against All Pros week in and week out. These are the best of the best the professional game has to offer. They aren’t getting outplayed by four guys who’ve never played an NFL snap before. 

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25 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Yeah, they are. Sorry. They go against All Pros week in and week out. These are the best of the best the professional game has to offer. They aren’t getting outplayed by four guys who’ve never played an NFL snap before. 

 

Wyatt Teller is a rookie 5th rounder. You think he is that much better than a guy who comes in a year later as a top 5 pick?

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1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Wyatt Teller is a rookie 5th rounder. You think he is that much better than a guy who comes in a year later as a top 5 pick?

Might be a wash, or he might have a slight experience edge. But that’s one position out of 33 where your example represents the BEST POSSIBLE outcome in favor of Alabama...they would get dominated overall. 

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19 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Might be a wash, or he might have a slight experience edge. But that’s one position out of 33 where your example represents the BEST POSSIBLE outcome in favor of Alabama...they would get dominated overall. 

 

I don't think it is even close to a wash. 

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8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think it is even close to a wash. 

He did ok against A’Shawn Robinson, a former Alabama guy. You guys are way overselling them.

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2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

He did ok against A’Shawn Robinson, a former Alabama guy. You guys are way overselling them.

 

I think he struggled. 

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