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Does CFB Championship game end the “they can beat a pro team” stuff finally?


Alphadawg7

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20 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Let me correct you on one point because it does matter in the context of what you are saying I argued. While the thread was about whether the Bills would cover the spread I repeatedly said that it wasn't about the Bills from my perspective. Nor was it really about whether the NFL team covered the spread although I, like Kirby, felt that the point spreads for the bottom feeder teams in the NFL were interesting. I also conceded on point 4 when we discussed.

 

The reason I entered that thread was to dispute the argument that Alabama is undertalented to compare to a bottom end NFL team because that argument was being made "there are guys on that team who won't be pros". I don't think they are (at least at the starter level) and still believe that. They ARE different in that regard. Their whole starting 2016 defense is playing in the NFL 7 starters, 3 backups and 1 special teamer. After this year's draft their whole 2017 starting defense will be as well. These are indisputable facts.  There are no grocery baggers starting on those defenses. Their might be one or two on the offense but not on the defense. 

 

Last night they got lit up by a true freshman Quarterback who was phenomenal. The 2016 defense got lit up by Deshaun Watson too. Sometimes great defensive teams get beaten by great Quarterbacks. That happenes in the pros the same as in college. As for how would Trevor Lawrence fare in the NFL.... we will have to wait a couple more years to see - but if he was able to and declared for the 2019 NFL Draft he would be a top 10 pick and the first Quarterback off the board. 

 

So do I downgrade my view on the Alabama defense after last night? No, not really. I think they are still super talented and like their 2016 and 2017 predecessors they will all play in the NFL. Their offensive line and running backs probably will too and the QB will also get drafted. Wide receiver and tight end they are thinner and I never argued otherwise. 

 

What I do think is that people can no longer sleep on the job Dabo has done with Clemson. That programme is now ready to challenge Alabma as the dominant force in college football. 

 

The central point I made 2 months ago stands - This Alabama team and even this Clemson team are different. There are very few grocery baggers. These programmes are absolutely stacked with NFL talent. 

 

I put the over/under on the number of the 44 starters from last night playing in the NFL (and I mean making teams and playing snaps not getting drafted in the 7th and being on practice squads) at 35. Where do you put it? 

You're forgetting Rashaan Evans, who was the #22 pick overall, and Anthony Averett (a 4th rounder). Of the group, Allen, Payne, Humphrey, and Jackson are all very good to elite (Jackson is the best as of now). Some of the others have the potential to be very good but aren't there yet (e.g., Minkah Fitzpatrick, who was up and down this season). Foster gets an incomplete given that his criminal proclivities. It's interesting that he's on the Redskins now; he's the fifth guy from that Bama unit on Washington now.

 

"And here’s where they went in the draft:

  • Marlon Humphrey — Round 1, No. 16, 2017 — Baltimore Ravens
  • Jonathan Allen — Round 1, No. 17, 2017 — Washington Redskins
  • Reuben Foster — Round 1, No. 31, 2017 — San Francisco 49ers
  • Ryan Anderson — Round 2, No. 49, 2017 — Washington Redskins
  • Dalvin Tomlinson — Round 2, No. 55, 2017 — New York Giants
  • Tim Williams — Round 3, No. 78, 2017 — Baltimore Ravens
  • Eddie Jackson — Round 4, No. 112, 2017 — Chicago Bears
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick — Round 1, No. 11, 2018 — Miami Dolphins
  • Da’Ron Payne — Round 1, No. 13, 2018 — Washington Redskins
  • Ronnie Harrison — Round 3, No. 93, 2018 — Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Shaun Dion Hamilton — Round 6, No. 197 — Washington Redskins

And, of course, this doesn’t even account for the fact that Rashaan Evans went No. 22 overall in this year’s draft, as he didn’t start that game. Anthony Averett also got selected this year, going in the fourth round.

That stat is an incredible recruiting tool for coach Nick Saban and the Tide, and the streak of producing top NFL Draft talent will likely only continue.

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/alabama-football/built-bama-11-alabamas-2016-defensive-starters-selected-past-2-nfl-drafts/"

 

 

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On 1/8/2019 at 10:46 AM, BringBackOrton said:

 

Not from you, mind you. But Clemson was an afterthought by National Media types.

 

 

 

 

No?  They were the consensus number 2 all year.  There's a few national media types who insisted all along that they were the equal or better to Alabama.  I'm a huge bama fan, as is my wife, and we've been saying to each other since august that the only team we were worried about this year was Clemson.  That was a shared sentiment among most Alabama fans who weren't pure homers

17 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

word salad

 

it might be time to take a break, friend

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On 1/8/2019 at 9:37 AM, Logic said:

While I do doubt the notion that a college team could beat an NFL team in the modern era, I DO want to point this out: Every year for 42 years, an exhibition game was played between a college all-stars team made up of the best seniors in college, and an NFL team. The College All-Stars won 9 of those 42 games. So a little more often than once every 5 years, a team made up of college players DID beat an NFL team. Granted, the NFL teams may not have played all their starters or tried that hard given that these were exhibition games, but nevertheless. I thought this was really interesting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_College_All-Star_Game

 

I’ve also won a lot of things that don’t count for anything. 

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3 minutes ago, jimmy10 said:

 

I’ve also won a lot of things that don’t count for anything. 

 

So?  I mean in the hypothetical where Alabama (or Clemson!) plays the Bills, or Arizona, whatever, i don't believe anyone has said it would count for anything.  That's pretty much exactly the point in fact.  Would a highly motivated and well coached college team be able to stay within 28 points of the worst NFL team, who have zero to prove? 

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On 1/7/2019 at 10:47 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

So does the CFB Championship game mean Clemson can beat the Bills?!?!  LMAO

 

Still hilarious at all the Alabama would beat the Bills talk, Bills can’t cover the spread, etc. when they just got whooped by another College team.  

 

I hope this “So and So College team can beat So and So Pro team” stuff finally dies.  It’s a farce.  

 

GO BILLS!  

The logic is not foolproof. It is still possible that 2 college teams could have beaten the Bills the first 2 weeks of the season, no? :)

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On 1/8/2019 at 9:29 AM, Chuck Wagon said:

Using the Bills in that scenario was always dumb.  It's pretty clear all the talk about us being the worst team in the league was way off base.

That's what I thought when they were saying it. There seemed to be a lot of hate towards the Bills.

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On 1/8/2019 at 11:08 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

Go back and find my first posts on the subject. The only revision I would like is I included Oklahoma in with these two. I was wrong on that. This pair is way ahead. 

 

We crunched the numbers last year. Every starter on the 2016 Alabama defense is now in the NFL. By the end of this next draft every starter on the 2017 defense will be too. Offense it is more like 60/40 (60 in league 40 not) I grant you.... but Alabama and Clemson don't have 5 or 6 stars and then a bunch of guys who will never play on Sundays. The talent isnt nearly as spread out in college football as it used to be. If you start for one of those teams the chances are you will play (and likely start) in the NFL. 

That's interesting.

 

I was thinking they might send 20 guys, total, to the NFL this year.

 

Which as I said, is a huge # off one team, but it's still not close to the starting lineup on O, D, and ST.

 

It makes sense that they have that level of concentrated talent; if they didn't have it, they wouldn't be in the championship game every year for a decade, or close to it.

 

 

 

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Josh allen with his athletic gifts would destroy the bama D.  he had bad games vs sophisticated nfl D's who come with a strong pass rush while his WRs drop good passes.  with what the basic scheme of clemson did vs bama, josh allen on the bills would have at least 10 touch downs (running and passing).  he got 5 vs a pro team in his last game, so it's not much of a stretch.

 

on the other side, you'd see massive differences with kicking and coverage.  pressured ncaa punters would shank punts and get them blocked, nfl special teamers would beat the snot out of the 3rd string guys they have covering kicks and punts in college.  that part of the game would be huge.  the bills would score and then run down and force a fumble at least a couple of times, which would deflate the bama side even more.

 

on D the wrs for bama would struggle to get seperation, and tua would not once be able to read the coverage.  dabol knows their scheme well enough to have lots of robber type underneath ints happen.  it would be more ints and fumbles than completions.

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On 1/9/2019 at 8:48 AM, mannc said:

You mean seasoned NFL professionals like Robert Foster, the Bills’ WR1, who was a backup for Alabama last year?

 

 

How well did he do in his first NFL game again? A game which came after months of training camp?

 

Zero catches for zero yards, wasn't it?

 

As a matter of fact, in Foster's first six NFL games he had two catches for 30 yards. On 9 targets. And after that, he was waived.

 

And yet by the end of a full season of immersion into the NFL culture he begins to get it. He has vastly improved. Your evidence if anything supports the opposing argument. It points out that after a long time in NFL camps and on NFL rosters, and in Foster's case actually being waived, some guys can learn and improve enough so that they can begin to make a difference in the NFL. Some.

 

So yes, even Foster, an NFL newbie, is a seasoned NFL pro compared to the Alabama guys.

 

On 1/10/2019 at 4:56 AM, The Drought said:

Bills (-64), who are you picking? 

 

 

Minus 64? Yeah, this sort of thing would be required before Alabama would start to look like a good bet.

Edited by Thurman#1
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Nope. Vegas odds makers apparently know their craft when it comes to intraleague contests. As I was informed oh so often. Apparently Alabama has a couple of players going pro! 

 

Wowee I wonder how many Bills will go pro. Oh wait 100%? Still betting the over on 80 point spread smh.

 

These geniuses had a 4:1 odds for Mayweather over McGregor. For da gamblers.. bet all you:re willing to spend on the favorite in Vegas intraleague Gamble's. I literally put all the dime I was allowed to on Mayweather on that 4:1 odds lol

 

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On 1/7/2019 at 11:47 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

So does the CFB Championship game mean Clemson can beat the Bills?!?!  LMAO

 

Still hilarious at all the Alabama would beat the Bills talk, Bills can’t cover the spread, etc. when they just got whooped by another College team.  

 

I hope this “So and So College team can beat So and So Pro team” stuff finally dies.  It’s a farce.  

 

GO BILLS!  

 

Why does this bother you so much? It's just content for outlets, it happens once every few years.

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On 1/9/2019 at 8:15 AM, mannc said:

Oh, you mean the game where he beat the Bengals on the road?? 

 

 

Deshaun Watson beat the Bengals? Sorry, but such a thing never happened.

 

What happened was that Watson played quarterback while his team beat the Bengals by a score of 13 - 9.

 

Yeah, his team beat the Bengals on the road, mostly through the defense holding the Bengals to 9 points. Whereas Houston scored 13 points, three of which came on a 12 yard drive from the Cincy 20 to the Cincy 8.

 

Houston's drives that first game for Watson looked like this:

 

4 yards, punt

7 yards, punt

8 yards, punt

12 yards, field goal

13 yards, punt

9 yards, punt

94 yards, big play a 49 yard Watson run, TD

0 yards, end of half

24 yards, punt

7 yards, punt

0 yards, punt

66 yards, field goal

4 yards, punt

 

Actually, not too bad of a game for a rookie QB's first.15 for 24 for 125 yards passing, no TDs, no INTs and a YPA of 5.21. And 67 yards running including a TD.

 

Wins is not a QB stat. It is a team stat. If Watson, a year younger, had had his 2017 college teammates playing with him, this game would have been an absolute laugher. And I like Watson. But it was the defense that was by far the major factor in that win.

Edited by Thurman#1
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Good teams like Clemson and Alabama have a handful of guys who will enter the NFL in a given season.

 

Even the worst NFL team has 53 guys who are IN the NFL. That ought to end the discussion right there.

 

There is a big difference between a 3rd string NFL RB and a 19 year old kid playing backup RB on a college team.

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On 1/8/2019 at 5:15 PM, mannc said:

Again, this is not something you can prove simply by stating it over and over.  Clemson, like Alabama, is packed with future NFL players, including probably 10-12 future first round draft picks, more than any NFL team has on its roster.  There is every reason to believe they could compete against a team like Oakland or the Cardinals on a neutral field.  

Competing in the NFL is often more about what you don't have. We could take all 32 draft picks 1st round in any given draft throw in 23 fill-in college role players (Clemson and Alabama have a TON of starters and role players that can't compete and don't belong in the NFL) 

 

Those 23 guys are going to get crushed against an NFL team. Clemson Bama could have an all-pro LT. Cool. Shaq is going to feast on the RT going nowhere. And Hughes is a wash against his tackle at worst. He'll give the guy trouble for sure. They could have a stud RB and 3/5 stud linemen. Those 2 that don't belong are going to be eaten by Phillips every other play. 

 

We see it with Jordan Mills against better rushers in the league. And Mills at least belongs in the NFL. He's still a liability for us. It'd be so easy to game plan for what a college team is weak at. Because every single NFL player on any team would crush that matchup.. a college team couldn't possibly execute plays if they only have a handful of guys that can beat an NFL matchup and too many that can't.

 

If Mills vs Bosa is heading our way, we're devoting a whole offensive game plan around that one matchup. Imagine if we had Mills vs Bosa caliber in 5/11 offensive matchups. That's what a college team is up against. They'd be lucky to get a first down. Their good players are a wash against NFL. Their bad players are losing the game for them no matter what.

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2 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

Good teams like Clemson and Alabama have a handful of guys who will enter the NFL in a given season.

 

Even the worst NFL team has 53 guys who are IN the NFL. That ought to end the discussion right there.

 

There is a big difference between a 3rd string NFL RB and a 19 year old kid playing backup RB on a college team.

 

 

what are the stakes?

 

it would be a crime to expose college kids to men who have survived two-a-days fighting for a weekly paycheck

 

 

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