Josh Allen advanced metrics darling?

[formerlyofCtown]

4 hours ago, Koko78 said:

Hopefully Allen will have some better receivers and (along with a year of NFL experience under his belt) will not have to rely on his legs as much next season.

 

It shouldn't be a surprise that defensive coordinators are going to spy the crap out of him next season, forcing him to beat them with his arm.

He will have some of the same WRs but I believe they will improve in the offseason even more than they already have.

Edited January 7, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[NoHuddleKelly12]

6 hours ago, Koko78 said:

Hopefully Allen will have some better receivers and (along with a year of NFL experience under his belt) will not have to rely on his legs as much next season.

 

It shouldn't be a surprise that defensive coordinators are going to spy the crap out of him next season, forcing him to beat them with his arm.

Also wonder if some teams will copy what SD just did against the Ravens in stopping Lamar with 7 DB’s, and what a good counter to that would be? Obviously the Ravens never adjusted so it would have to be figured out from scratch ?

[Koko78]

20 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Also wonder if some teams will copy what SD just did against the Ravens in stopping Lamar with 7 DB’s, and what a good counter to that would be? Obviously the Ravens never adjusted so it would have to be figured out from scratch ?

 

The answer for the Bills is to do what Levy failed to do at Super Bowl 25: make them pay by repeatedly feeding the ball to the running backs.

[BuffaloBill]

7 hours ago, Cripple Creek said:

Leave advanced metrics out of the equation. Allen is a darling.❤️

 

 

You have a thing for young NFL QB’s? 

[Cripple Creek]

18 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

You have a thing for young NFL QB’s? 

Just the cute ones.

[brianthomas]

Better to have a thing for young cute NFL QB's than old Tight Ends

[Ol Dirty B]

9 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Saw this site in relation to Zay Jones, and decided to look up josh Allen...surprised to see he is rated #8 of all QBs in Production Premium which means how he fares in standard situations compared to his rivals. Positive means he is more efficient than the average player at his position and negative means less efficient than average player.  Of the rookie QB's only Mayfield had a Production Premium higher at 13.0 than Allens' 11.7...all the rest were negative in this category, with Rosen and Jackson being way negative(-20+). Darnold was -4.1.

 

Also found it interesting that Allen's Target separation of 1.47 was ranked 4th in the NFL, meaning when he threw to a target, how many yards of separation did they have. This is telling a different story than what we are hearing...the Bills receivers get no separation...as this only tracks targeted throws, perhaps that is why he ran so much, as receivers were not open...

 

Allen also was ranked as having the 3rd worst supporting cast efficiency at -10.92 behind Darnold(-14.03 #31) and Rosen(-16.85 #32)

 

All in all, these metrics are showing a very high upside to Allen and above average production on a per play basis, even if some people don't see it yet...

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/josh-allen/

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Like none of this is counter to what people have been saying. We've all bitched about the WRs since August 2017. Well I mean the smart ones did, those slow to it started in October of this year.

[ctk232]

21 hours ago, MJS said:

Yeah, I looked at Josh Allen's profile on that site before. Really find it interesting that Josh Allen's 40 time is a 4.75. Compare this to Kiko Alonso who had a 4.79 (almost identical) and it's clear that Allen's 40 time is not accurate to what we see on game days. Allen outran Alonso with ease on numerous plays.

 

This tells me that Allen did not train to run the 40 time, focusing instead on passing, as he should have. But Allen's game speed is much faster than his 40 time suggests.

40 time is all well and good but has been found to not translate perfectly to in-game performance, or for the implications it's been believed to represent. Good amount of scouting circles will use the overall combine as a standardized measure, but know that it's implications for performance are vastly limited, beyond just the 40.

[MJS]

19 minutes ago, ctk232 said:

40 time is all well and good but has been found to not translate perfectly to in-game performance, or for the implications it's been believed to represent. Good amount of scouting circles will use the overall combine as a standardized measure, but know that it's implications for performance are vastly limited, beyond just the 40.

 

I think that's true, but being able to run a fast 40 DOES indicate that you are a fast person and can probably run fast on a football field too. And scouts can claim that the 40 time isn't important, but guys who run a blazing 40 time get over drafted every single year (John Ross). Actions speak louder than words. They are clearly swayed by the 40 time more than any other combine test.

[billsfan89]

21 hours ago, MJS said:

Yeah, I looked at Josh Allen's profile on that site before. Really find it interesting that Josh Allen's 40 time is a 4.75. Compare this to Kiko Alonso who had a 4.79 (almost identical) and it's clear that Allen's 40 time is not accurate to what we see on game days. Allen outran Alonso with ease on numerous plays.

 

This tells me that Allen did not train to run the 40 time, focusing instead on passing, as he should have. But Allen's game speed is much faster than his 40 time suggests.

 

Kiko had a major knee injury since running his 40 after college. So I am not sure just how accurate you can compare Kiko's 40 time from 2013 to Allen's 40 time in 2018 esp factoring in the injury. That being said Allen does look to play faster than his 40 time. I don't know why that's the case.

[MJS]

1 minute ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Kiko had a major knee injury since running his 40 after college. So I am not sure just how accurate you can compare Kiko's 40 time from 2013 to Allen's 40 time in 2018 esp factoring in the injury. That being said Allen does look to play faster than his 40 time. I don't know why that's the case.

 

Well, I think most positions really train at the 40, because for many positions it is the most important event at the combine. Josh Allen, though, probably didn't. He worked on throwing mechanics.

 

So an untrained guy is going to struggle at the 40 compared to someone who has spent months fine tuning it. Proper sprinting requires a lot of learned mechanics (different mechanics from just running around on the football field).

[ctk232]

17 minutes ago, MJS said:

 

I think that's true, but being able to run a fast 40 DOES indicate that you are a fast person and can probably run fast on a football field too. And scouts can claim that the 40 time isn't important, but guys who run a blazing 40 time get over drafted every single year (John Ross). Actions speak louder than words. They are clearly swayed by the 40 time more than any other combine test.

Arguably no more than measured game speed - which all scouts have the capacity to do as the stats and measurement resources are there. They will still use the 40 times as it is data for what it's worth - but they should and typically do understand the context of the evaluation. 

 

If a team runs an offensive system predicated on speedy receivers, then maybe it is a larger consideration, but only if it fits the system, and never as a singular trait without context. The combine 40 time tells a scout how fast a guy accelerates and runs in a straight line from a standing point for 40 yards from a sprinting/non-football position to a non-football finishing position. That's it. It's implications from that are vastly more limited than actual game review and study for several reasons, but mostly in that it is actually very rare for most football players to ever run 40 yards in a straight line. Sure - there are moments where a guy gets in the open and will use breakaway speed down the sideline or for YAC, but on your average NFL play no one is running in straight lines for 40 yards, and other valuable traits in receivers come into play: route running, awareness, hands, feet/fakes/movement, size, etc. Especially when measuring receivers, the route running ability (already inclusive of speed) is a better measurement for evaluation of receivers in terms of separation at point of catch, finding open holes in zone coverage, and creating effective opportunities for the QB.

 

I'd also be careful making the assumption a lot of players get drafted because of fast 40 times, as it is not because of their 40 times that they got drafted, but could and likely is the fact that the best NFL draft prospects also happen to have fast 40 times by virtue of the pool of talent. It's a metric, it's considered variably across the league scouts, but overall is a scientifically limited measurement for football performance.

[IgotBILLStopay]

Advanced stats notwithstanding, I would be skeptical of a website that lists Brock Osweiler as the closest comparison to JA.

[RyanC883]

Also has the intangibles I love to see in a QB.  Leader and gamer.  Loves the game, loves winning. 

[MJS]

14 minutes ago, ctk232 said:

Arguably no more than measured game speed - which all scouts have the capacity to do as the stats and measurement resources are there. They will still use the 40 times as it is data for what it's worth - but they should and typically do understand the context of the evaluation. 

 

If a team runs an offensive system predicated on speedy receivers, then maybe it is a larger consideration, but only if it fits the system, and never as a singular trait without context. The combine 40 time tells a scout how fast a guy accelerates and runs in a straight line from a standing point for 40 yards from a sprinting/non-football position to a non-football finishing position. That's it. It's implications from that are vastly more limited than actual game review and study for several reasons, but mostly in that it is actually very rare for most football players to ever run 40 yards in a straight line. Sure - there are moments where a guy gets in the open and will use breakaway speed down the sideline or for YAC, but on your average NFL play no one is running in straight lines for 40 yards, and other valuable traits in receivers come into play: route running, awareness, hands, feet/fakes/movement, size, etc. Especially when measuring receivers, the route running ability (already inclusive of speed) is a better measurement for evaluation of receivers in terms of separation at point of catch, finding open holes in zone coverage, and creating effective opportunities for the QB.

 

I'd also be careful making the assumption a lot of players get drafted because of fast 40 times, as it is not because of their 40 times that they got drafted, but could and likely is the fact that the best NFL draft prospects also happen to have fast 40 times by virtue of the pool of talent. It's a metric, it's considered variably across the league scouts, but overall is a scientifically limited measurement for football performance.

 

That's all well and good, but you absolutely do see guys get over drafted because of a fast 40 time. The 40 time can and does raise the stock of players. It shouldn't, but it does. Everyone knows it doesn't mean everything, but it still affects GM's and scouts because for some reason they can't help themselves. We saw it with John Ross in Cincinnati. We saw it with Goodwin here in Buffalo a few years ago. These guys were not projected to go that high until after their fast 40 times.

[ctk232]

Just now, MJS said:

 

That's all well and good, but you absolutely do see guys get over drafted because of a fast 40 time. The 40 time can and does raise the stock of players. It shouldn't, but it does. Everyone knows it doesn't mean everything, but it still affects GM's and scouts because for some reason they can't help themselves. We saw it with John Ross in Cincinnati. We saw it with Goodwin here in Buffalo a few years ago. These guys were not projected to go that high until after their fast 40 times.

My bad, I overlooked overdrafted - but I entirely agree in that regard.

[RoyBatty is alive]

21 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I have wondered why they don't have the draft prospects run the 40 in football gear.  Would give a more realistic picture, I'd think.

 

You  would have to very narrowly define football gear as the temptation to cheat would be enormous.  Do you wear effectively no pads like  or look like the Michelin man

[billsfan89]

44 minutes ago, MJS said:

 

Well, I think most positions really train at the 40, because for many positions it is the most important event at the combine. Josh Allen, though, probably didn't. He worked on throwing mechanics.

 

So an untrained guy is going to struggle at the 40 compared to someone who has spent months fine tuning it. Proper sprinting requires a lot of learned mechanics (different mechanics from just running around on the football field).

 

That's true, training for a 40 time can help shave off a tenth of a second or so. But while I do think that Allen plays faster than his 40 time of 4.75 I don't think he is as fast as some would have you believe. I think he game speed is probably closer to his 40 than to Cam Newton (esp Cam when he first got into the league) or some other faster QB's.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

35 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

That's true, training for a 40 time can help shave off a tenth of a second or so. But while I do think that Allen plays faster than his 40 time of 4.75 I don't think he is as fast as some would have you believe. I think he game speed is probably closer to his 40 than to Cam Newton (esp Cam when he first got into the league) or some other faster QB's.  

 

That may be.  But it just highlights the point that sheer speed, and playing speed, are different concepts.

 

Watching Allen's runs, I personally think he's either been soaking in some moves from watching film, or actually working a bit with Shady or someone.

He's deceptive, is part of it.  He'll be running, and a LB will choose his angle, and then Allen turns on the afterburner and the angle turns into a bad angle.  Or vice versa - he'll be running full out and he'll slow a step.  My favorite was this one play where he literally forced one defender into the path of another defender with his moves.  I don't think he had all these moves at the start of the season, he just ran.  He's been soaking them in from somewhere, I believe (also, he slides more now, and he actually has quite a neat slide)

 

Anyway, I don't think it's so much Allen's speed per se that is making him effective, as his athleticism, which allows him to make moves that make guys miss.

Or just stiff-arm and run over them ?

[MJS]

1 hour ago, billsfan89 said:

 

That's true, training for a 40 time can help shave off a tenth of a second or so. But while I do think that Allen plays faster than his 40 time of 4.75 I don't think he is as fast as some would have you believe. I think he game speed is probably closer to his 40 than to Cam Newton (esp Cam when he first got into the league) or some other faster QB's.  

 

Well, for comparison Kelvin Benjamin ran a 4.6 at the combine. Josh Allen seems faster than KB to me. Guess it could just be an effort issue there though.