Big Turk Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Saw this site in relation to Zay Jones, and decided to look up josh Allen...surprised to see he is rated #8 of all QBs in Production Premium which means how he fares in standard situations compared to his rivals. Positive means he is more efficient than the average player at his position and negative means less efficient than average player. Of the rookie QB's only Mayfield had a Production Premium higher at 13.0 than Allens' 11.7...all the rest were negative in this category, with Rosen and Jackson being way negative(-20+). Darnold was -4.1. Also found it interesting that Allen's Target separation of 1.47 was ranked 4th in the NFL, meaning when he threw to a target, how many yards of separation did they have. This is telling a different story than what we are hearing...the Bills receivers get no separation...as this only tracks targeted throws, perhaps that is why he ran so much, as receivers were not open... Allen also was ranked as having the 3rd worst supporting cast efficiency at -10.92 behind Darnold(-14.03 #31) and Rosen(-16.85 #32) All in all, these metrics are showing a very high upside to Allen and above average production on a per play basis, even if some people don't see it yet... https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/josh-allen/ . 6 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cripple Creek Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Leave advanced metrics out of the equation. Allen is a darling.❤️ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Yeah, I looked at Josh Allen's profile on that site before. Really find it interesting that Josh Allen's 40 time is a 4.75. Compare this to Kiko Alonso who had a 4.79 (almost identical) and it's clear that Allen's 40 time is not accurate to what we see on game days. Allen outran Alonso with ease on numerous plays. This tells me that Allen did not train to run the 40 time, focusing instead on passing, as he should have. But Allen's game speed is much faster than his 40 time suggests. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 18 minutes ago, MJS said: Yeah, I looked at Josh Allen's profile on that site before. Really find it interesting that Josh Allen's 40 time is a 4.75. Compare this to Kiko Alonso who had a 4.79 (almost identical) and it's clear that Allen's 40 time is not accurate to what we see on game days. Allen outran Alonso with ease on numerous plays. This tells me that Allen did not train to run the 40 time, focusing instead on passing, as he should have. But Allen's game speed is much faster than his 40 time suggests. Yeah Allen is legit fast...not just for a QB, for a player...he hit 20+ mph twice this year which is pretty damn fast...Tyrods top speed I could find in comparison was 18.8 mph 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koko78 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Hopefully Allen will have some better receivers and (along with a year of NFL experience under his belt) will not have to rely on his legs as much next season. It shouldn't be a surprise that defensive coordinators are going to spy the crap out of him next season, forcing him to beat them with his arm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
technobot Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Good points about his 40 time but let's not discount the fact he's this giant kid, strong as an ox, and probably has elite speed (for quarterbacks) wearing 20 lbs of pads and equipment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 ‘matter2003’ is really Lisa Douglas / Eva Gabor?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYfan Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Cripple Creek said: Leave advanced metrics out of the equation. Allen is a darling.❤️ He may be your darling, but he is our Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Respectfully, I don't think the separation measurement says what the OP thinks it does. That is a measure of separation at the time he throws the ball as opposed to when he is supposed to, ideally, throw the ball. He has to hold on to the ball longer because they don't get timely separation. His buying time in the pocket with his feet and his guts, allows them to eventually get some separation. I don't buy that this particular stat refutes the widely held belief that our receivers do not get open. Dropping catchable balls are another issue entirely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I have my doubts about the separation stat. I understand that it could be right but I would like to know if they account for blown coverage in there because otherwise you are likely going to get outliers that are going to jack that number way up. Say 300 of his 320 attempts were 1.4 yards of separation and the other 20 were 10 yards of separation because of blown coverages or him finding a hole in the defense when scrambling. That would bump the yards of separation to 1.93. It seems like it can make it look like the receivers were doing better than they were if they judge all completions the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Mickey said: Respectfully, I don't think the separation measurement says what the OP thinks it does. That is a measure of separation at the time he throws the ball as opposed to when he is supposed to, ideally, throw the ball. He has to hold on to the ball longer because they don't get timely separation. His buying time in the pocket with his feet and his guts, allows them to eventually get some separation. I don't buy that this particular stat refutes the widely held belief that our receivers do not get open. Dropping catchable balls are another issue entirely. Yeah that would make sense then.... 27 dropped passes was a little ridiculous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 There just isn't enough film showing what is going on downfield, on all passing plays, for me to have a strong opinion one way or the other. I do know that almost every time they show an overhead view on a replay, someone is more or less wide open, and often missed by the QB--any QB--not just Josh Allen. "Can't get separation" is overblown, particularly as good QBs complete passes where there is often no separation. Developing Josh's ability to read defenses pre-snap giving him a much better idea of where he is likely to go with the ball will have a much greater impact on his completion % than acquiring "better" receivers with "more separation". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 59 minutes ago, technobot said: Good points about his 40 time but let's not discount the fact he's this giant kid, strong as an ox, and probably has elite speed (for quarterbacks) wearing 20 lbs of pads and equipment. I have wondered why they don't have the draft prospects run the 40 in football gear. Would give a more realistic picture, I'd think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 This doesn't surprise me in the least, just based on observing the kinds of passes he attempts compared to other QBs. I'm glad Daboll seems to recognize the rare arm talent he has at his disposal, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 58 minutes ago, CNYfan said: He may be your darling, but he is our Josh. yes there is enough Josh to go around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 45 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I have wondered why they don't have the draft prospects run the 40 in football gear. Would give a more realistic picture, I'd think. You and your common sense, we want none of that here buster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7975 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 56 minutes ago, Mickey said: Respectfully, I don't think the separation measurement says what the OP thinks it does. That is a measure of separation at the time he throws the ball as opposed to when he is supposed to, ideally, throw the ball. He has to hold on to the ball longer because they don't get timely separation. His buying time in the pocket with his feet and his guts, allows them to eventually get some separation. I don't buy that this particular stat refutes the widely held belief that our receivers do not get open. Dropping catchable balls are another issue entirely. Nextgenstats lists it at the time of catch or incompletion, not at the time of throw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianthomas Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I have wondered why they don't have the draft prospects run the 40 in football gear. Would give a more realistic picture, I'd think. I imagine its because it would take longer during the process to inspect each players protective equipment to make sure it was standard & nobody was trying to cheat with less for an advantage. Having them run in just shorts not only saves time & energy but ensures every participant can be compared from the same baseline. That's my thinking on it, just a theory, could be totally wrong. I'm sure theres something out there to be found off google, but that'd take time searching for it & what not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
switz1610 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 hours ago, Mickey said: Respectfully, I don't think the separation measurement says what the OP thinks it does. That is a measure of separation at the time he throws the ball as opposed to when he is supposed to, ideally, throw the ball. He has to hold on to the ball longer because they don't get timely separation. His buying time in the pocket with his feet and his guts, allows them to eventually get some separation. I don't buy that this particular stat refutes the widely held belief that our receivers do not get open. Dropping catchable balls are another issue entirely. I took it to mean he only throws to wide open receivers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 29 minutes ago, switz1610 said: I took it to mean he only throws to wide open receivers. Exactly, it makes more sense for him to run than to throw into tight windows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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