Jump to content

Bills: Playoffs or Bust 2019. What must happen?


freddyjj

Recommended Posts

52 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Yeah, we'll see. As I see it, Allen took longer to throw than ANY QB in the league this year, which also suggests that the OL didn't play nearly as bad as everyone thinks/says. The times that I watched there was some pressure as there is on all teams, but I also saw plenty of times where he had much time to throw and simply botched it.  

 

I should have noted the games and times but wasn't thinking about it at the time and frankly, didn't think I'd have to, but I saw countless times where there was someone wide-open in the flats or on a wheel-route or fade, etc. on plays that would have gone for considerable yardaged, that he simply missed and threw incomplete OTM or downfield and at least once resulting in an INT.  

 

That's what I'm talking about in terms of his short-game, it simply isn't there, not even close.  

 

Here's the thing, I'm not sure that talent alleviates that.  If he's not seeing things, he's not seeing things.  We can argue about why, compare to other rookie QBs, etc. until we're blue in the face, but if he's going to become a franchise QB then THAT SPECIFICALLY, is going to have to change.  Here's the proglem with that, he's struggled with that according to everyone that's known him in both HS and college.  He continues to struggle with it now.  Not that I have the answer, but what are the odds that it changes in the NFL?  I can't imagine that they're high.  That's a tremendously difficult thing to coach-up if it's coachable at all and IMO it is not coachable.   

 

Bolded is a common misconception...of the top 5 QBs in the 'Time to Throw' stat (dubious stat imo, even more dubious name), all five of them are what you'd consider 'mobile' QBs which is THE contributing factor, not offensive line quality. In fact, 4/5 of the offensive lines in the top 5 QBs' 'Time to Throw' are below average, with Houston and Buffalo objectively among the bottom three in the league. Time to Throw is by no means an indicator of offensive line quality and shouldn't be conflated as such. 

 

14 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Say what you will, but in terms of efficiencies, Jackson's numbers are better.  At the end of the day it's numbers, not potential or correctability, that counts and assists in putting points on the board, which could very well be why the Ravens with no more offensive talent than we have as the Ravens have scored nearly as many points in weeks 11-17 under Jackson than we've scored all year.  

 

The arguments for Allen are all these mystical elusive prognostications of future success without the evidence at present to back them up, while the if the criticism of Jackson holds sway then he'll be a backup, ala Taylor, in a few seasons.  Could be, but my point entirely is that two different standards are being applied.  

 

In another thread talking about Jackson I noted all the comments slamming Jackson that could very well be applied to Allen but which for Allen in the very same thread are entirely excuses.  That to me simply doesn't seem to be good business in the realm of analysis.  

 

Yes, I realize that we have different takes, but mine's rooted in NFL history and the traits that typically define Franchise QBs.  Sorry, but at the present time, and apart from intangibles where Allen's got them all just about if not outright, and better than any of his draft peers except for possibly Mayfield, the other far more substantive stuff simply isn't there.  We can argue about that, but I don't see it.  

 

How many that don't go on to become franchise QBs?  

Well, in terms of offensive production, we played a very similar in-division schedule wrt opposing defensive average PPG- right at about 25 points between average interdivisional opponents. But out of division the Bills had by far the tougher go of it, facing every single one of the top 5 defenses in the league by PPG while the five toughest defenses the Ravens played out of division were the 3rd, 8th, 13th, 14th, and 16th on a PPG basis. That's enough to logically account for the discrepancy in PPG over the course of the season in my mind. 

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Well, he also stepped into (or away from) a whole bunch of sacks, which is another issue altogether involving pocket-awareness, and something that numerous announcers and writers pointed out so it's not like it's a secret or anything.  

 

We agree that Allen cannot be the top rusher, but my point is even simpler than that.  Look, he may be our QB for a decade, but if he doesn't end up being a "frachise caliber QB" then drafting him as such will have been a waste. If all we get is Cam Newton, and right now Newton's short-game is world's better than Allen's, then the strategy to draft him will have failed.  Newton's not a franchise QB.  

 

My point all along in numerous posts, is that if Allen is to achieve that status, and that's all I'm talking about here, I'm not talking about whether he can function like yet another QB to keep the seat warm until we get a true franchise QB, then he's going to have to very seriously address a bunch of issues involving his short-game.  

 

IMO the more he runs the more likely he is sustain a very severe injury.  I mean isn't that common sense?  And yeah, I get it, he's "very durable for a QB" and all that stuff, sorry, but that doesn't make him immune to serious injury.  

 

Also I've heard absolutely no one factor in now that team's know Allen how they'll plan against us for his skillset, whatever that happens to be.  As of now not even Allen's rushing is winning us games.  In the four big rushing games he's had we're 2-2.  

 

We're 4-3 when Allen throws for a TD.  We're 1-4 when he doesn't.  That should spell it out.  

Just running isn't really the issue, its what kind of running is he doing.  The game earlier in the year where Bills had a first and goal from around the 5-6 yard line and they had Allen try to run on 2nd and 3rd down and he almost got killed on that 2nd run.  Those were designed plays but the QB should not be running like that.  That should have been 2 passing plays but blame the coaching staff on those two.  Allen was looking more comfortable at the end of season in red zone and he is a good running threat  that should help keep defenses honest.  
Now, when he rolls out and there's nobody in half the field, Allen definitely should take off for 20-30 yards, but make sure he gets down or out of bounds and not challenge the defensive guy.  On 3rd or 4th and 1, Allen is a definite weapon to use.  I don't want Allen to run in the same manner Jackson does, because that will lead to injury.   I hope Allen gets around 500-600 top yards rushing next year, about 40 a game and then have it go down each year from there.  Deshaun Watson had 531 last year and Cam had 485.  

 

And I'll go back to what I've always thought about Rookie Quarterbacks, its been my experience watching football for 40 years that its futile to try and know how well a rookie QB's career will go.  Many good and even great QB's did not look good their rookie year and many great QB's barely even played their rookie year.  Josh Allen now gets to spend the next 7 months watching film and learning NFL defenses.  He's not a big dumb football player, he had the top wonderlic score in the draft (for qb's).  He'll figure out some things.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Say what you will, but in terms of efficiencies, Jackson's numbers are better.  At the end of the day it's numbers, not potential or correctability, that counts and assists in putting points on the board, which could very well be why the Ravens with no more offensive talent than we have as the Ravens have scored nearly as many points in weeks 11-17 under Jackson than we've scored all year.  

 

The arguments for Allen are all these mystical elusive prognostications of future success without the evidence at present to back them up, while the if the criticism of Jackson holds sway then he'll be a backup, ala Taylor, in a few seasons.  Could be, but my point entirely is that two different standards are being applied.  

 

In another thread talking about Jackson I noted all the comments slamming Jackson that could very well be applied to Allen but which for Allen in the very same thread are entirely excuses.  That to me simply doesn't seem to be good business in the realm of analysis.  

 

Yes, I realize that we have different takes, but mine's rooted in NFL history and the traits that typically define Franchise QBs.  Sorry, but at the present time, and apart from intangibles where Allen's got them all just about if not outright, and better than any of his draft peers except for possibly Mayfield, the other far more substantive stuff simply isn't there.  We can argue about that, but I don't see it.  

 

How many that don't go on to become franchise QBs?  

To say QBs don't gain ability to see plays with more experience, to say it isn't coachable is complete nonsense.  Otherwise rookie QBs would never improvecandcwith the exception of maybe Marino name a great QB that was such in his rookie year and stayed there.

 

In every single sport experience helps regardless of position, specific sport, whatever.  It is beyond bizarre to suggest otherwise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

I would have zero problem drafting a stud defensive lineman at 9. Did you see the part where our scoring defense was below average? The myth that the defense was "tired" is just that; a myth. The Bills time of possession was middle of the pack. What you see with this defense is that they are very close to being top tier. Like one player away close. Like one stud edge or interior pass rusher close. They need a game changer in the front 7. Spend all other resources on offense for all I care, but get me one difference maker at DL.

 

This iteration of the NFL DEMANDS you have skill players (WR, TE, RB) you can DEPEND on to move the ball.

 

The Bills cannot be the Bears or the Ravens or the Seahawks and struggle to move the ball just to score points.

 

Imagine if you will drafting two offensive linemen 1st and 2nd, a WR 3rd round or moving up to use a second 2nd round pick on one, and then getting a TE in free agency. Problem solved, spend the FA cash to address TE and bam, find that defensive guy if you will.

 

Naaah get me the offensive skill players and offensive linemen. That's where we can make the offense on par with our defense in making plays.

Edited by EasternOHBillsFan
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Yeah, we'll see.  As I see it, Allen took longer to throw than ANY QB in the league this year, which also suggests that the OL didn't play nearly as bad as everyone thinks/says.  The times that I watched there was some pressure as there is on all teams, but I also saw plenty of times where he had much time to throw and simply botched it.  

 

I should have noted the games and times but wasn't thinking about it at the time and frankly, didn't think I'd have to, but I saw countless times where there was someone wide-open in the flats or on a wheel-route or fade, etc. on plays that would have gone for considerable yardaged, that he simply missed and threw incomplete OTM or downfield and at least once resulting in an INT.  

 

That's what I'm talking about in terms of his short-game, it simply isn't there, not even close.  

 

Here's the thing, I'm not sure that talent alleviates that.  If he's not seeing things, he's not seeing things.  We can argue about why, compare to other rookie QBs, etc. until we're blue in the face, but if he's going to become a franchise QB then THAT SPECIFICALLY, is going to have to change.  Here's the proglem with that, he's struggled with that according to everyone that's known him in both HS and college.  He continues to struggle with it now.  Not that I have the answer, but what are the odds that it changes in the NFL?  I can't imagine that they're high.  That's a tremendously difficult thing to coach-up if it's coachable at all and IMO it is not coachable.   

The time to throw stat is heavily skewed for mobile QBs.  There is a reason that the QBs with the longest TT stat are also the ones that can run.  It is no indication on how good or bad the oline did.  If you want to see how bad the line did then just watch the game and then go to any media outlet that says we have one of the worst in the league.  Time to pressure would be a way better stat for something like this, although I don't know of any non subscription source for that stat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

This iteration of the NFL DEMANDS you have skill players (WR, TE, RB) you can DEPEND on to move the ball.

 

The Bills cannot be the Bears or the Ravens or the Seahawks and struggle to move the ball just to score points.

 

Naaah, get me the offensive skill players and offensive linemen. That's where we can make the offense on par with our defense in making plays.

Give me guys that are on the All Pro list every year.  You see an offensive guy at # 9 great.  But most estimates I've read say that the real top talent this year is on the D side.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

This iteration of the NFL DEMANDS you have skill players (WR, TE, RB) you can DEPEND on to move the ball.

 

The Bills cannot be the Bears or the Ravens or the Seahawks and struggle to move the ball just to score points.

 

Naaah, get me the offensive skill players and offensive linemen. That's where we can make the offense on par with our defense in making plays.

The defense is not good enough because they lack an elite play maker on the line. They are not even league average in the redzone or scoring. You can change that with one player. You think the Eagles wanna give up Fletcher Cox? Naaaaah. We all know the offense needs a major overhaul, but it would be foolish to ignore one side of the ball. The defense is much closer to being dominant than the offense. If they want to win next season, they need to make sure they can at least rely on the D. This iteration of the NFL (defensively) is all about red zone stops, turnovers, and pressuring the opposing QB. It's entirely possible the offense is only marginally better next season because they'll be relying on an unproven QB and a ton of new players. No improvement on defense and it's quite possibly the last year for McBeane.

7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Give me guys that are on the All Pro list every year.  You see an offensive guy at # 9 great.  But most estimates I've read say that the real top talent this year is on the D side.

Yep. It's highly like the BPA will be a defensive lineman. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Give me guys that are on the All Pro list every year.  You see an offensive guy at # 9 great.  But most estimates I've read say that the real top talent this year is on the D side.

 

We could end up with this:

 

OL Jonah Williams

WR N'Keal Harry

OL Cody Ford

 

TE Jared Cook

 

Have a DAY grabbing a defender after that in the draft or free agency. Now THAT would be kick ass.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

What's your take on why the media is slamming Lamar Jackson who had more rushing yards than Allen, despite starting fewer games, but praising Allen when statistically Jackson's the better short-medium passer and given that Jackson's 6-2 as a starter whereas Allen's 5-6?  

 

This game is a team sport.  Allen can't get the wins by himself.  We had the worst receiving corps in the entire league, we couldn't establish a run game throughout the season, and our O-line was horrendous.  If Allen was a Raven, his winning percentage would be the same as Jackson, if not better.  If we can find gems through the draft and free agency, Jackson will become an afterthought with Allen outperforming him easily.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think that the strategy for McBeane is a great mystery moving forward.  They need to significantly upgrade the talent level of the offensive line, add a few quality weapons for Josh Allen and continue to manage his development well.  On defense, I think they need to get a little more physical.  Personally, I'd like the defense to be a little more aggressive, but that is just personal preference.  The youngsters on defense need to continue developing.  Beane needs to keep adding talent as he is able.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I feel like if we have a good draft, good FA and Allen takes that next step in developing into a franchise QB that we could challenge for a wildcard spot in 2019.

I agree with this. However if that happens and Allen does take that next step and plays similar to the way Goff and the Rams did in his 2nd yr, I wouldn't count them completely out for challenging for the division. Of course this is wishful thinking, but if Allen gets the tools he needs with better blocking and continues to play at a high level like towards the end of this past season then the Bills will be putting a lot of points on the board.

 

I don't expect too much to change with the defense, I still expect them to be playing at a high level anyway, so it will be interesting to see how all this plays out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

I agree with this. However if that happens and Allen does take that next step and plays similar to the way Goff and the Rams did in his 2nd yr, I wouldn't count them completely out for challenging for the division. Of course this is wishful thinking, but if Allen gets the tools he needs with better blocking and continues to play at a high level like towards the end of this past season then the Bills will be putting a lot of points on the board.

 

I don't expect too much to change with the defense, I still expect them to be playing at a high level anyway, so it will be interesting to see how all this plays out.

The Rams had a good team around Goff as a rookie. We need to hit big on the draft and FA to even have a slim chance at the playoffs. We would also need to find a Gurley and Donald, teams making the playoffs have elite players not a team full of Josh Reed type talent.

Edited by Call_Of_Ktulu
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/3/2019 at 4:31 PM, freddyjj said:

OK, so if you haven't noticed, I am an analytical fan.  Some good posts here today on Josh Allen and Zay Jone metrics.  Got me thinking, what does it take to make the playoffs in the AFC these days.  

 

Some food for thought:

  1. The average total points scored for the season by all 2018 qualifying AFC Playoff teams was 442 total points or 28 ppg.  For perspective, the Bills scored 269 total points or 17 ppg in 2018.  In 2017 the Bills scored 302 total points or 19 ppg when they snuck in the back door of the playoffs.
  2. The average points surrendered for the season by all 2018 qualifying AFC Playoff teams was 337 total points or 21 ppg.   or perspective, the Bills surrendered 374 total points or 23.5 ppg in 2018.  In 2017 the Bills surrendered 359 total points or 22.5 ppg when they snuck in the back door of the playoffs.  Weird that they made playoffs with a negative scoring differential.
  3. While I can see Bills dropping points against in 2019 to the 21 ppg level with improved D in Yr 3 of system and better time of possession on offense, I am not sure Bills can increase scoring by 11 ppg in 2019.  The one playoff team that they could emulate would be Baltimore who scored at a 24.5 ppg rate.  Can the Bills score 400 points or 25 points per game in 2019?  They did in 2016 with Tyrod and Rex!
  4. In 2019 if Josh Allen throws 24 TDs and runs for 12 more TDs we are at 252 points.  Throw in 10 Rushing TDs for RBs and we are at 322 points26 FGs (his Average) by House Money and we are at 400 Points scored even.  Anything else (ST returns or defensive Scores) is Gravy!
  5. Bills have to go 6-2 at home and 4-4 on road top have a shot at wild card in 2019.  They were 6-2 at home in 2017 but have not gone 4-4 on the road since 2014 when they beat Pats in Foxboro in last game of season when Brady was pulled after halftime.  This is the hard part.  Good teams can win on the road.

 

So to summarize in 2019 the Bills will make playoffs if they:

  1. Go 10-6 on season.  The AFC North will be tough but PItt and CIN are in chaos.  The NFC East might be the softest division in NFC next year.  And we draw TN and DEN as our extra AFC Games and both are winnable.
  2. Score 400 or more points or > 25 PPG.  Offense improving by 8ppg
  3. Give up 335 points or less <21 PPG.  Defense improving by 2.5 ppg

 

What are your takes on this?  Do you see offense improving by 8ppg or defense improving by 2.5 ppg?

It’s definitely possible to achieve those numbers with the additional money the Bills will have available. It is up to Beane to put together this roster. Beane did the easy part, eating a ton of dead money and putting a subpar roster out there last season, now Beane has to follow that up with building a good roster using the cap space and draft picks we have.

 

2019 is the time to show this regime is headed in the right direction. Barring some bad injuries, 9 wins is the benchmark that should be in place for Beane and McD to get to year 4.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, CLTbills said:

You don't remember correctly. The trade deadline is week 8. Richie and Wood left after the season.

We're both partly correct.  Eric Wood news was late JAN 2018.  Glenn Trade was 3/14 /2018 and Richie retiring was 4/10/2018.  SO all were off season events prior to 2018 Team activities

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/3/2019 at 4:31 PM, freddyjj said:

OK, so if you haven't noticed, I am an analytical fan.  Some good posts here today on Josh Allen and Zay Jone metrics.  Got me thinking, what does it take to make the playoffs in the AFC these days.  

 

Some food for thought:

  1. The average total points scored for the season by all 2018 qualifying AFC Playoff teams was 442 total points or 28 ppg.  For perspective, the Bills scored 269 total points or 17 ppg in 2018.  In 2017 the Bills scored 302 total points or 19 ppg when they snuck in the back door of the playoffs.
  2. The average points surrendered for the season by all 2018 qualifying AFC Playoff teams was 337 total points or 21 ppg.   or perspective, the Bills surrendered 374 total points or 23.5 ppg in 2018.  In 2017 the Bills surrendered 359 total points or 22.5 ppg when they snuck in the back door of the playoffs.  Weird that they made playoffs with a negative scoring differential.
  3. While I can see Bills dropping points against in 2019 to the 21 ppg level with improved D in Yr 3 of system and better time of possession on offense, I am not sure Bills can increase scoring by 11 ppg in 2019.  The one playoff team that they could emulate would be Baltimore who scored at a 24.5 ppg rate.  Can the Bills score 400 points or 25 points per game in 2019?  They did in 2016 with Tyrod and Rex!
  4. In 2019 if Josh Allen throws 24 TDs and runs for 12 more TDs we are at 252 points.  Throw in 10 Rushing TDs for RBs and we are at 322 points26 FGs (his Average) by House Money and we are at 400 Points scored even.  Anything else (ST returns or defensive Scores) is Gravy!
  5. Bills have to go 6-2 at home and 4-4 on road top have a shot at wild card in 2019.  They were 6-2 at home in 2017 but have not gone 4-4 on the road since 2014 when they beat Pats in Foxboro in last game of season when Brady was pulled after halftime.  This is the hard part.  Good teams can win on the road.

 

So to summarize in 2019 the Bills will make playoffs if they:

  1. Go 10-6 on season.  The AFC North will be tough but PItt and CIN are in chaos.  The NFC East might be the softest division in NFC next year.  And we draw TN and DEN as our extra AFC Games and both are winnable.
  2. Score 400 or more points or > 25 PPG.  Offense improving by 8ppg
  3. Give up 335 points or less <21 PPG.  Defense improving by 2.5 ppg

 

What are your takes on this?  Do you see offense improving by 8ppg or defense improving by 2.5 ppg?

I see Offense Improving by more than 8 ppg if we fix the line and our young WRs continue to grow as well as Duke being the Beast I think he will be for us. 

 

How many points of improvement do we have if half the drops were eliminated and we could run the ball in a traditional manner.

21 hours ago, Buffalo Ballin said:

Playoffs. The only choice. Josh Allen is the new Elway? Ok then. Bring us there. Prove it.

I hope he does it sooner than Elway as far as Lambardis go.

On 1/4/2019 at 5:39 AM, freddyjj said:

The Glenn trade was made after the Richie and Eric Wood news iirc 

YDRC

23 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I feel like if we have a good draft, good FA and Allen takes that next step in developing into a franchise QB that we could challenge for a wildcard spot in 2019.

If all those things happen we challege for the division.

If we just fix the line we get a wildcard spot I believe.

Edited by formerlyofCtown
  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Obviously wins and playoffs would be great, but if Josh Allen solidifies himself as a franchise QB I'll be satisfied regardless of whether we see the postseason.

 

That's when FAs with options want to play for you, current players want to re-sign, & imaginations run wild with possibilities.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...