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Bills: Playoffs or Bust 2019. What must happen?


freddyjj

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On 1/3/2019 at 3:51 PM, FearLess Price said:

Allen has been great in the red zone historically throughout his career tho.

 

Sure he needs to work on his short and intermediate accuracy but he is money in the red zone.  The guy had so many great throws that our WRs dropped in the end zone they cut 5 TDs offf his stats alone. Its even on YouTube.

 

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On 1/7/2019 at 5:08 PM, dakrider said:

Just running isn't really the issue, its what kind of running is he doing.  The game earlier in the year where Bills had a first and goal from around the 5-6 yard line and they had Allen try to run on 2nd and 3rd down and he almost got killed on that 2nd run.  Those were designed plays but the QB should not be running like that.  That should have been 2 passing plays but blame the coaching staff on those two.  Allen was looking more comfortable at the end of season in red zone and he is a good running threat  that should help keep defenses honest.  
Now, when he rolls out and there's nobody in half the field, Allen definitely should take off for 20-30 yards, but make sure he gets down or out of bounds and not challenge the defensive guy.  On 3rd or 4th and 1, Allen is a definite weapon to use.  I don't want Allen to run in the same manner Jackson does, because that will lead to injury.   I hope Allen gets around 500-600 top yards rushing next year, about 40 a game and then have it go down each year from there.  Deshaun Watson had 531 last year and Cam had 485.  

 

And I'll go back to what I've always thought about Rookie Quarterbacks, its been my experience watching football for 40 years that its futile to try and know how well a rookie QB's career will go.  Many good and even great QB's did not look good their rookie year and many great QB's barely even played their rookie year.  Josh Allen now gets to spend the next 7 months watching film and learning NFL defenses.  He's not a big dumb football player, he had the top wonderlic score in the draft (for qb's).  He'll figure out some things.  

 

Again, we agree for the most part altho I will comment on a couple of things.  

 

You he looked more comfortable in the red zone at the end of the season.  His RZ performance thru 16 weeks was abysmal, not even mediocre or just bad, bottom-dwelling.  So if "the end of the season" you mean the Maimi game, who can argue.  Here's the thing, it was an emotional game against a team in disarray that typically doesn't play well in the cold venues.  The Bills have a history of getting up for games like that, win or lose.  The home-opener is typically a game in which they overachieve like they did vs. Miami.  But almost everyone on the team played  so beyond their typical play for the rest of the season that I'm not sure that it's wise to use that game as a guide in the same way that it was unwise to use the Minnesota game as a guide.  

 

Allen's gotta steady-state improve his RZ game in spades and then some if he's ever going to become a franchise QB.  Right now he doesn't even rank in that category, even with the Miami game.  Whether that happens we'll see.  As I always say, us sitting here talking about it ain't gonna be a factor in that development.  LOL  Unfortunately too many posters seem to think that pop-opinion determines outcome, which is always part of the amusement of message boards.  

 

As to predicting QB play, I wouldn't say that it's "futile" per se, it can be difficult, but there are definitely significant indicators, several of which I rarely hear "draft experts" even cite much less use, that are very relevant in determining the odds of a QB's future success.  So many posters seem to think that watching a highlight reel combined with reading a handful of superficial bullet-points by some "draft expert" is an analysis.  But the reality is that in order to properly conduct an analysis on the future prospects for a QB, one must watch hours of film and also consider "lowlights" as well because those often tell as much if not more than the highlights.  And in Allen's case, if the lowlights are all against Iowa, Oregon, and Nebraska, and in a big, big way, to the extent that he was worsee against those power-5 teams, way worse in many cases, than QBs that weren't even drafted.  That's relevant, and to overlook that one does so to his own detriment in any analysis.  Unfortunately I almost never (never say never) see this kind of stuff, and other stuff like it.  

 

Sometimes in order to get certain information you have to dig fairly deep too.  I don't even remember where I found college RZ stats, I'm actually PO'd that I didn't bookmark the link.  But here's the 2018 RZ for NFL QBs.  Note the difference between Allen and his peers, and keep in mind that half of Allen's positives were in that Miami game and keep in mind that Jackson's were in just over half the games that Allen played.  It's not good.  

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/redzone-passing.htm

 

This is the kind of stuff teams should be doing, and much more, before drafting players, QBs or others.  It's how you can determine that players like Spiller will be a bust, as one mere example.  

 

Whether it's "futile" can be argued IMO, but what's perfectly known are several things: 

 

Franchise QBs are never built around their rushing games.  (Fact)  It may be that a franchise QB like Wilson has a solid rushing game, but his status as a franchise QB has little to do with that.  

 

Franchise QBs do not all have a "deep/strong arm," but they all do have a top-notch short-passing game, which is a requisite in teh red zone since there is no deep game down there.  (Fact)  That was Bledsoe's problem too, strong arm but useless in the red zone all but, and consider, he was world's better than Allen is/was in the RZ this season or in college.  

 

The long and short of it is that his status as a franchise QB hinges directly upon his passing, not his rushing.  And while his rushing may help his passing, although IMO that's debatable as a propensity to run an also be a significant hindrance to the development of a passing game.  But if we strip away Allen's rushing and look exclusively at his passing, he's all but DFL if not DFL outright as a passer in the NFL.  

 

So that's the hurdle he has to overcome and mountain he must climb.  Whether it's futile to project whether or not he does that is arguable, but the odds of him doing what he's A, not shown that he's even close to doing and lags his peers at in the NFL, much less what he was never good at even at Wyoming, will all of a sudden occur to that extent here is hardly an odds-on proposition.  

 

Look at it this way, would you lay say 10% of your annual income on that happening?  I wouldn't at this point.  

 

Wonderlics I'm not sure translate in this case, but to play devil's advocate, if he's so sharp, why didn't he do this in college against vastly inferior competition and at a far lower level of play.  Why has this stigma followed him as a QB?  Rhetorical perhaps, nonetheless food-for-thought.  

 

He also can watch all the film that he wants, but he'll have to do this on the field and his peers are way ahead of him, why?  Also, keep in mind that opponents will also review film and know better how to prepare for Allen next season, so that's a double-edged sword, also a simple concept that I rarely if ever hear the talking heads mention.  

 

 

 

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On 1/7/2019 at 5:10 PM, oldmanfan said:

To say QBs don't gain ability to see plays with more experience, to say it isn't coachable is complete nonsense.  Otherwise rookie QBs would never improvecandcwith the exception of maybe Marino name a great QB that was such in his rookie year and stayed there.

 

In every single sport experience helps regardless of position, specific sport, whatever.  It is beyond bizarre to suggest otherwise.

 

Well, I'm not sure that I said the first part of that, to start.  

 

As to what's coachable, how do you get into a QB's head and teach him to read D's?  NFL history suggests that QBs that enter the NFL with that flaw typically do not succeed, regardless of where they're drafted.  I have to side with NFL history in this case.  

 

To put Allen in the same catgegory as Marino as a passer is ridiculous.  Marino was in a completely different era to start, which is very relevant.  I mean why not go back tot he 30's or 40's then when it was a completely different game.  The NFL has never made it easier for QBs than the current NFL.  

 

But if you want to prove your point more relevantly, it might be a good idea to put together a short-list of NFL franchise QBs since say 2000 anyway, that entered the NFL with a poor track-record of red-zone performance in college coupled with a knock for not being able to read Ds.  

 

Put that list together and perhaps that may be more convincing.  To simply lean on the word experience isn't really saying much.  

 

And BTW, it should be pointed out that Marino only led the Fins to the SB once and lost.  His Fins made the playoffs 10 of 16 seasons and were typically ousted in the WC or divisional round.  

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On 1/7/2019 at 6:08 PM, Circlethewagon8404 said:

This game is a team sport.  Allen can't get the wins by himself.  We had the worst receiving corps in the entire league, we couldn't establish a run game throughout the season, and our O-line was horrendous.  If Allen was a Raven, his winning percentage would be the same as Jackson, if not better.  If we can find gems through the draft and free agency, Jackson will become an afterthought with Allen outperforming him easily.

 

OK, start there then.  So using that, do a contrast in comparison for Jackson.  Compare WRs, RB, OL, TE, etc.  D's were comparable, no?  #1/#2.  

 

As well, do the same contrast/comp for Allen's draft peers in the RZ?  Darnold way better.  Do the comps for Darnold, I'm simply not seeing much of a difference there.  So why are Darnold's RZ numbers so incredibly better?  And frankly, I'm hardly convinced that Darnold's a franchise-QB in waiting either.  

 

What you say is fine, but don't simply apply the part you want to Allen for purposes of Analysis, show how the same doesn't apply to the players we're comparing him to.  

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On ‎1‎/‎3‎/‎2019 at 1:31 PM, freddyjj said:

 

So to summarize in 2019 the Bills will make playoffs if they:

  1. Go 10-6 on season.  The AFC North will be tough but PItt and CIN are in chaos.  The NFC East might be the softest division in NFC next year.  And we draw TN and DEN as our extra AFC Games and both are winnable.
  2. Score 400 or more points or > 25 PPG.  Offense improving by 8ppg
  3. Give up 335 points or less <21 PPG.  Defense improving by 2.5 ppg

 

 

This requires talent, leadership, proper coaching, and coordination.

 

As of right now, the Bills can't pull this off.

 

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Just now, #34fan said:

 

This requires talent, leadership, proper coaching, and coordination.

 

As of right now, the Bills can't pull this off.

 

 

As of right now, no.

 

But I will reserve judgement until after Free Agency and the Draft and then still hope that JA develops over the course of next season..

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18 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

As of right now, no.

 

But I will reserve judgement until after Free Agency and the Draft and then still hope that JA develops over the course of next season..

 

Right... -Because the last free agency and draft went so well....:rolleyes:

 

 

 

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Just now, Aussie Joe said:

 

The last draft was fine and they have another gazillion dollars to spend this FA

 

Yah... "Fine" as in "not good", or even approaching "great"  -"Fine" gets you a ILB, who can't really play the position, and a QB who can't hit water from the beach.

 

Fine is what everyone thought Star Lotulelei, and Trent Murphy were.... If we're shooting for" fine", we'll be rebuilding again in '21

 

 

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9 minutes ago, #34fan said:

 

Yah... "Fine" as in "not good", or even approaching "great"  -"Fine" gets you a ILB, who can't really play the position, and a QB who can't hit water from the beach.

 

Fine is what everyone thought Star Lotulelei, and Trent Murphy were.... If we're shooting for" fine", we'll be rebuilding again in '21

 

 

 

I was talking “draft” as a whole..

 

I don’t know about you, but a season after any draft I would look towards playing/starting time as an indicator as to whether it was “fine” or not...I think they did “good” there and I would be more than happy with a repeat in 2019

 

An extra gazilion to spend in FA might help as well.. maybe they can upgrade the OL this year for example..Crazy talk right?

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22 hours ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Again, we agree for the most part altho I will comment on a couple of things.  

 

You he looked more comfortable in the red zone at the end of the season.  His RZ performance thru 16 weeks was abysmal, not even mediocre or just bad, bottom-dwelling.  So if "the end of the season" you mean the Maimi game, who can argue.  Here's the thing, it was an emotional game against a team in disarray that typically doesn't play well in the cold venues.  The Bills have a history of getting up for games like that, win or lose.  The home-opener is typically a game in which they overachieve like they did vs. Miami.  But almost everyone on the team played  so beyond their typical play for the rest of the season that I'm not sure that it's wise to use that game as a guide in the same way that it was unwise to use the Minnesota game as a guide.  

 

Allen's gotta steady-state improve his RZ game in spades and then some if he's ever going to become a franchise QB.  Right now he doesn't even rank in that category, even with the Miami game.  Whether that happens we'll see.  As I always say, us sitting here talking about it ain't gonna be a factor in that development.  LOL  Unfortunately too many posters seem to think that pop-opinion determines outcome, which is always part of the amusement of message boards.  

 

As to predicting QB play, I wouldn't say that it's "futile" per se, it can be difficult, but there are definitely significant indicators, several of which I rarely hear "draft experts" even cite much less use, that are very relevant in determining the odds of a QB's future success.  So many posters seem to think that watching a highlight reel combined with reading a handful of superficial bullet-points by some "draft expert" is an analysis.  But the reality is that in order to properly conduct an analysis on the future prospects for a QB, one must watch hours of film and also consider "lowlights" as well because those often tell as much if not more than the highlights.  And in Allen's case, if the lowlights are all against Iowa, Oregon, and Nebraska, and in a big, big way, to the extent that he was worsee against those power-5 teams, way worse in many cases, than QBs that weren't even drafted.  That's relevant, and to overlook that one does so to his own detriment in any analysis.  Unfortunately I almost never (never say never) see this kind of stuff, and other stuff like it.  

 

Sometimes in order to get certain information you have to dig fairly deep too.  I don't even remember where I found college RZ stats, I'm actually PO'd that I didn't bookmark the link.  But here's the 2018 RZ for NFL QBs.  Note the difference between Allen and his peers, and keep in mind that half of Allen's positives were in that Miami game and keep in mind that Jackson's were in just over half the games that Allen played.  It's not good.  

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/redzone-passing.htm

 

This is the kind of stuff teams should be doing, and much more, before drafting players, QBs or others.  It's how you can determine that players like Spiller will be a bust, as one mere example.  

 

Whether it's "futile" can be argued IMO, but what's perfectly known are several things: 

 

Franchise QBs are never built around their rushing games.  (Fact)  It may be that a franchise QB like Wilson has a solid rushing game, but his status as a franchise QB has little to do with that.  

 

Franchise QBs do not all have a "deep/strong arm," but they all do have a top-notch short-passing game, which is a requisite in teh red zone since there is no deep game down there.  (Fact)  That was Bledsoe's problem too, strong arm but useless in the red zone all but, and consider, he was world's better than Allen is/was in the RZ this season or in college.  

 

The long and short of it is that his status as a franchise QB hinges directly upon his passing, not his rushing.  And while his rushing may help his passing, although IMO that's debatable as a propensity to run an also be a significant hindrance to the development of a passing game.  But if we strip away Allen's rushing and look exclusively at his passing, he's all but DFL if not DFL outright as a passer in the NFL.  

 

So that's the hurdle he has to overcome and mountain he must climb.  Whether it's futile to project whether or not he does that is arguable, but the odds of him doing what he's A, not shown that he's even close to doing and lags his peers at in the NFL, much less what he was never good at even at Wyoming, will all of a sudden occur to that extent here is hardly an odds-on proposition.  

 

Look at it this way, would you lay say 10% of your annual income on that happening?  I wouldn't at this point.  

 

Wonderlics I'm not sure translate in this case, but to play devil's advocate, if he's so sharp, why didn't he do this in college against vastly inferior competition and at a far lower level of play.  Why has this stigma followed him as a QB?  Rhetorical perhaps, nonetheless food-for-thought.  

 

He also can watch all the film that he wants, but he'll have to do this on the field and his peers are way ahead of him, why?  Also, keep in mind that opponents will also review film and know better how to prepare for Allen next season, so that's a double-edged sword, also a simple concept that I rarely if ever hear the talking heads mention.  

 

 

 

College stats for a 2nd year NFL QB don't really mean a lot, because if they did mean something then Tim Tebow would be in the NFL Hall of Fame!  

The 2017 Wyoming team Allen was on lost to one of the worst teams in college football toward the end of the season because Allen didn't play.  The games Allen did play they went 8-3.  Allen turned a likely 3 or 4 win team to 8-5 with a bowl win.  

And of those games you mentioned, the only really bad game I saw Allen have in college was against Oregon.  He had a terrible game and the whole team looked terrible, kind of like the Bills - Ravens game this year.  The other games you mentioned - against Iowa receivers dropped 2 different touchdown passes.  Neb - game was 24-17 in 4th and then Allen had 4 turnovers in 4th qtr. primarily because he was trying to do way to much, that game was all Allen or nothing.  And regardless of what team your on, 1 guy cannot beat 11.  

Also the Red Zone stats you mentioned, Goff's RZ passing stats his rookie year were almost the exact same as Allen's.  He's improved considerably since then! 

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On 1/14/2019 at 11:29 AM, dakrider said:

Also the Red Zone stats you mentioned, Goff's RZ passing stats his rookie year were almost the exact same as Allen's.  He's improved considerably since then! 

 

I honestly can't believe that you cited that game against Iowa.  I don't think that there's an Allen apologist out there that would even touch any of the three games he played against Power-5 competition.  As I've often said, most QBs that weren't even drafted or were drafted in rounds 6 & 7 played notably better against P-5 competition, often on horrible teams, than Allen did. 

 

Now, as to your comment above, it seems that you agree with me then.  Allen too will need to "improve considerably" in red zone performance if he's to become a franchise QB.  

 

I will also disagree with you that Allen played equally in the red zone.  Allen's red zone stats are skewed by the proverbial country mile from that last Miami game.  Outside of that emotionally hyped game, a rarity, Allen's RZ performance wasn't even close to Wentz's unimpressive rookie RZ performance.  

 

But we agree, which is my entire point, Allen will have to "improve significantly," as you implied, if he's to become a franchise QB.  

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On 1/3/2019 at 4:50 PM, TPS said:

They averaged almost 25 ppg after the bye, with Allen at QB in all but the first Jets game.  Certainly doable.

If they fix the O-line/running game, they can be a playoff team.

 

Thanks, was just about to post this as well.  Everyone saying "they can't build an offense in one offseason" is conveniently ignoring the 2nd half of last season -- the offense made a 180-degree turnaround.

 

First 9 games:  10.7 PPG, 248.3 YPG

Last 7 games:  24.7 PPG, 363.3 YPG

 

Year 3 of the rebuild is right on track.  This team expects to compete now, regardless of what you may read elsewhere on this board.

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On 2/17/2019 at 8:46 AM, TaskersGhost said:

 

I honestly can't believe that you cited that game against Iowa.  I don't think that there's an Allen apologist out there that would even touch any of the three games he played against Power-5 competition.  As I've often said, most QBs that weren't even drafted or were drafted in rounds 6 & 7 played notably better against P-5 competition, often on horrible teams, than Allen did. 

 

Now, as to your comment above, it seems that you agree with me then.  Allen too will need to "improve considerably" in red zone performance if he's to become a franchise QB.  

 

I will also disagree with you that Allen played equally in the red zone.  Allen's red zone stats are skewed by the proverbial country mile from that last Miami game.  Outside of that emotionally hyped game, a rarity, Allen's RZ performance wasn't even close to Wentz's unimpressive rookie RZ performance.  

 

But we agree, which is my entire point, Allen will have to "improve significantly," as you implied, if he's to become a franchise QB.  

 

Well you should believe it.  The Wyoming games against Neb. and Iowa were fairly close games until about the 4th qtr. which is why I brought them up.   You saw some games this  last year as many on this forum who've said Allen looked like the best player on the field!  And thats against NFL players.  So that kind of goes against your premise that Allen can't play against P-5 competition. 

There's probably been more great college quarterbacks who flopped in the NFL as ones who turned into franchise quarterbacks.  Heck you can't even judge most great NFL QB's based on their rookie year much less college.  Many barely played their first year and many others didn't start out looking very good.  

As far as I'm concerned, Josh Allen is just scratching the surface and has only just begun to learn how to play Quarterback in the NFL.  

 

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12 minutes ago, dakrider said:

 

Well you should believe it.  The Wyoming games against Neb. and Iowa were fairly close games until about the 4th qtr. which is why I brought them up.   You saw some games this  last year as many on this forum who've said Allen looked like the best player on the field!  And thats against NFL players.  So that kind of goes against your premise that Allen can't play against P-5 competition. 

There's probably been more great college quarterbacks who flopped in the NFL as ones who turned into franchise quarterbacks.  Heck you can't even judge most great NFL QB's based on their rookie year much less college.  Many barely played their first year and many others didn't start out looking very good.  

As far as I'm concerned, Josh Allen is just scratching the surface and has only just begun to learn how to play Quarterback in the NFL.  

 

He was kinda one dimensional last year, dependent on his running skills and passing on the run.  Give the kid an offensive line and running game...just imagine.

On 2/17/2019 at 8:46 AM, TaskersGhost said:

 

I honestly can't believe that you cited that game against Iowa.  I don't think that there's an Allen apologist out there that would even touch any of the three games he played against Power-5 competition.  As I've often said, most QBs that weren't even drafted or were drafted in rounds 6 & 7 played notably better against P-5 competition, often on horrible teams, than Allen did. 

 

Now, as to your comment above, it seems that you agree with me then.  Allen too will need to "improve considerably" in red zone performance if he's to become a franchise QB.  

 

I will also disagree with you that Allen played equally in the red zone.  Allen's red zone stats are skewed by the proverbial country mile from that last Miami game.  Outside of that emotionally hyped game, a rarity, Allen's RZ performance wasn't even close to Wentz's unimpressive rookie RZ performance.  

 

But we agree, which is my entire point, Allen will have to "improve significantly," as you implied, if he's to become a franchise QB.  

Franchise QBs have some pretty damn good talent around them.  We won't know if Allen fits that for the Bills until we get some better talent around him.

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On 2/26/2019 at 3:27 PM, dakrider said:

 

Well you should believe it.  The Wyoming games against Neb. and Iowa were fairly close games until about the 4th qtr. which is why I brought them up.   You saw some games this  last year as many on this forum who've said Allen looked like the best player on the field!  And thats against NFL players.  So that kind of goes against your premise that Allen can't play against P-5 competition. 

There's probably been more great college quarterbacks who flopped in the NFL as ones who turned into franchise quarterbacks.  Heck you can't even judge most great NFL QB's based on their rookie year much less college.  Many barely played their first year and many others didn't start out looking very good.  

As far as I'm concerned, Josh Allen is just scratching the surface and has only just begun to learn how to play Quarterback in the NFL.  

 

 

To be honest I'm not quite sure what you're talking about.  If you're trying to defend Allen then I'd suggest not using three games in which he went 48 of 96 (a perfect 50%), for 427 Yards (an average of 142/game), 1 TD, 8 INTs, (3 more fumbles lost for 11 TOs total), and a YPA of not even 4.5 with an adjusted YPA of just over 1.  You won't find a draft eligible QB from that season that played worse on average against power-5 competition.  

 

To any extent that those games may have been close, and two were essentially over at halftime, it was purely the defense, not the offense that averaged 11 points-per-game that kept it “competitive.”   The Oregon game was over midway thru the 2nd Q. 

 

Flopping is one thing, being horrific is another altogether.   If you take a look at all the other QBs that weren’t even drafted last year, I’m tellin’ ya, you won’t find one that had worse performances than Allen.   Any that were even remotely close have no chance of doing anything in the NFL. 

 

As to “my premise,” you’ve clearly not been paying attention.  For starters Allen only looked like the best player on the field as a passing QB for one game, that last Miami game.  Before that his passing stats were horrific.  Minnesota was a good game considering, but hardly to the extent that he was the best player on the field. 

 

In that game he had one passing TD, all but handed to him by the D starting at the Minny 26.  Another scoring drive was mostly a drive where Ivory caught a short pass for 55, all Ivory.  Allen was not good otherwise on that drive and in the red zone on the day, where his issues are (short-medium game) he was awful, going 2 of 4 for 8 yards, no TDs.  Before the week 17 Miami game he had 2 red zone TDs all season.  Worst by a country mile of ANY QB.  

 

Now, if you want to say that he was the best athlete on the field, probably a little more room to argue that point.  But I’ll take a non-athletic QB that has an on-point short-medium game, like Brady, any day of the week over an athletic one that struggled in his short-medium game, to the extent that he was down there with the worst and the worst rookie this year to boot. 

 

We’ll see what happens this year, but “my premise” is that if his short-medium game doesn’t improve in a major way this season, it’s just a matter of time before McBeane are no longer here since they absolutely need Allen to work out to the status of franchise QB in order for them to save their jobs given what they gave up to move up and get him. 

 

But make no mistake, he’s not going to become a franchise QB because of his running.  He isn’t even Michael Vick right now in the passing game, not even close. 

 

 

On 2/26/2019 at 3:42 PM, Pokebball said:

He was kinda one dimensional last year, dependent on his running skills and passing on the run.  Give the kid an offensive line and running game...just imagine.

 

Franchise QBs have some pretty damn good talent around them.  We won't know if Allen fits that for the Bills until we get some better talent around him.

 

Agreed, be nice for him to have more options.  But then let's put the blame where it belongs for him not having them.   

 

Franchise QBs all have one thing in common, their short-medium games, which include what they call "high-percentage passes," are outstanding.  Allen's was and is horrific and was also poor in college.  His Red Zone performance is bottom-dwelling, even amongst rookies.  

 

That clearly has to change.  He's not going to run, run, run his way to success much less franchise QB status.  

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