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Cool Detailed Analysis - Zay Jones


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Guest K-GunJimKelly12

I'll go on record and say I think Zay is going to have a big year next season.  1000 yards 10 TD's are well within his abilities.

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On 1/3/2019 at 1:43 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

The trade up to take him was a terrible, terrible move.  But at least, he can be a productive player.  

 

But we could have had our number 1 in JuJu and an extra draft pick. Frustrating.

 

Revisionist history at its best;  Zay was a better prospect at the time than JuJu in every way. 

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11 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

 

“Zay doesn’t play well in the big moments”

 

so you isolated discrete moments in a season to pass your judgment about Zay. 

 

Do you know what “cherry pick” means? Because that is the definition of cherry picking.

All his best games were division games and the last one was after the bills we’re eliminated lol

 

Drops balls in critical moments.

 

moulds played in a tough era where dbs could hold you.

 

come back when you learn football.

 

hopefully ***** stains are covered under fatheads return policy.

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45 minutes ago, BakersBills said:

All his best games were division games and the last one was after the bills we’re eliminated lol

 

Drops balls in critical moments.

 

moulds played in a tough era where dbs could hold you.

 

come back when you learn football.

 

hopefully ***** stains are covered under fatheads return policy.

 

So you acknoweldge you are cherry picking to criticize what you perceived (ironically incorectally) as my cherry picking?

 

moulds had a great career. His first two years were not great. 

 

Also, don’t say “learn football.” Makes you look silly. Not a good look. 

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26 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

So you acknoweldge you are cherry picking to criticize what you perceived (ironically incorectally) as my cherry picking?

 

moulds had a great career. His first two years were not great. 

 

Also, don’t say “learn football.” Makes you look silly. Not a good look. 

Lol like I give a ***** about your opinion 

 

your cousin is mediocre.

 

 

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On 1/7/2019 at 12:52 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Honestly I don't think he is a lock for the roster.  Beane and McD have been very vocal about the need to make plays at WR and the need to get better there.  The only constant all year is that Zay was a starter.  And while he had some moments, overall he too frequently let the team down either with drops or being completely taken out of games by opposing defensive backs.  Doesn't mean he can't make significant improvements this summer, but right now, I think his future here is very much in question.

 

Foster has already over took him on the depth chart, so as of right now he is clinging to the #2 WR spot.  And as soon as we sign or draft someone to start, Zay will suddenly be competing for the #3 spot at best.  And with the signing of Williams, he already has competition before we look at WR in FA/Draft/Trade. 

 

Right now, I think Zays chances of being on the roster next year are at best 50/50 and he is going to have to earn a roster spot.  Odds that he starts at WR next season are below 5% IMO.  I think its pretty safe to say we will add at least 2 more WR's in FA/draft/trade on top of just adding an intriguing prospect in Williams.  Come camp, there will be at least 2 starters ahead of him, and likely 1 or 2 other guys all vying for WR3 to WR5.  

 

My prediction:  Zay doesn't make the final roster next year and is either traded or cut.

WR1 - Not currently on roster, will be through FA/Trade/Draft (slight chance someone like Foster or Williams could win this spot, but I think its pretty likely this is someone not currently on the roster).  

WR2 - Foster (may compete to be WR1, depending no who we bring in).  Williams could also push him for this spot potentially.

WR3 - I think someone not currently on roster.  Could be Foster if someone like Williams moved his way up the depth chart.  But I think Foster is the WR2 and this guy is not currently on roster.  I think we will sign someone like Humphries or draft a guy to come in and be a slot weapon.  If Zay manages to make the final roster, I think this spot is his ceiling going into next year.

WR4 - Williams - I like this signing because he has a skill set we didn't have in the WR room this year with his catch radius.  So assuming he is past is off field stuff I think he will both make the roster and actually could maybe compete for one of top 3 spots as well.  Until we can see what he can do on an NFL field though, I cant project him any higher than WR4.  We also need to see if he can get separation on routes without using that running start in the CFL.  Zay for me likely lands here if he say beats out Williams and keeps a roster spot.

WR5/WR6/ST - I think McKenzie and some other young player we already have or add this offseason will be here, not sure how many WR's they carry come week 1, but I would guess 5 or 6 total.  

 

So for me, I think Williams signing may be the end of Zay due to a numbers game here.  I don't think for a second that the FO feels Williams is anywhere near enough to add to the WR room.  I expect 2 more additions on top of that.  So with those 2 additions, Foster, Williams, and McKenzie that doesn't leave a lot of room for Zay unless he makes some impressive leaps forward this offseason.  In fact, assuming we bring in two more relevant WR's, I think Zay's ability to make this roster will then rely on one of two things...either making a profound leap forward himself, or seeing someone like Williams flame out and get cut.

Well those are a lot of words but they add up to huh? Zay Jones is going to make this team next year and is likely going to be the number two receiver, or one of them. By that I mean I don't think we're going to find a clear number one unless it's by a trade. I think we're going to have more of a committee of competent solid receivers. 

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  • 1 month later...
On 1/3/2019 at 1:43 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

The trade up to take him was a terrible, terrible move.  But at least, he can be a productive player.  

 

But we could have had our number 1 in JuJu and an extra draft pick. Frustrating.

Why do people continually hindsight every draft with "we could have had...."? It is a frustrating claim that literally EVERY fan of EVERY team could make.

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1 hour ago, Juice_32 said:

 

I’m glad you posted this. He’s been busting his butt this offseason. If he doesn’t pan out in 2019 it won’t be for a lack of effort. 

 

Work ethic has never been a question mark.  

 

However, his hands, route running, speed, separation, mental strength, and ability to make contested catches all have been and still are.  And if he doesn’t pan out, these will all be the reasons.

Edited by Alphadawg7
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2 hours ago, aceman_16 said:

Why do people continually hindsight every draft with "we could have had...."? It is a frustrating claim that literally EVERY fan of EVERY team could make.

Because I was all about JuJu before that draft. I knew he was a stud.  So yeah, when they trade up for a guy who played against subpar competition because they hired his college coach, it’s a little frustrating.

 

IMo, Zay will never be close to the player as JuJu. It was a really bad decision.  That said, it’s a sunken cost and he could be a solid possession guy for us.

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

I mean this is much better than fighting his brother naked.  But much like DK Metcalf, this doesn’t really impress me.  Getting all jacked for a receiver isn’t necessarily great.  

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20 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Because I was all about JuJu before that draft. I knew he was a stud.  So yeah, when they trade up for a guy who played against subpar competition because they hired his college coach, it’s a little frustrating.

 

IMo, Zay will never be close to the player as JuJu. It was a really bad decision.  That said, it’s a sunken cost and he could be a solid possession guy for us.

I mean this is much better than fighting his brother naked.  But much like DK Metcalf, this doesn’t really impress me.  Getting all jacked for a receiver isn’t necessarily great.  

I don’t think Stevie Johnson ever lifted weights lol 

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On 1/3/2019 at 10:53 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

Separation is different than speed.  Jerry Rice ran like a 4.6.  JuJu just seems to play faster than Zay.

 

and if they trade Brown, James Washington will be the next good Steelers receiver. Loved him too.  They just kill in the draft.  Too bad they just have some many d bags.

That is an incredibly important distinction for a lot of people to realize on this board, not just in reference to Zay. While speed can help create separation, the two are not equivalents, nor do you necessarily need speed to do well in creating separation.

 

On 1/3/2019 at 10:43 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

The trade up to take him was a terrible, terrible move.  But at least, he can be a productive player.  

 

But we could have had our number 1 in JuJu and an extra draft pick. Frustrating.

Word - though we'll kill ourselves playing that game with the drafts...happens to every team, every year. No one really knew at the time either, despite our preliminary thoughts being ultimately correct.

 

On 1/3/2019 at 10:42 AM, freddyjj said:

Eric Moulds Yr 1 and 2

 

Game Game Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece
Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Ctch%
                               
1996 23 BUF KR/wr 80 16 5 37 20 279 14.0 2 47 1.3 17.4 54.1%
1997 24 BUF KR/WR 80 16 8 52 29 294 10.1 0 32 1.8 18.4 55.8%

 

Zay Jones Yr 1  and 2

 

Game Game Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece
Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Ctch%
                               
2017 22 BUF WR 11 15 10 74 27 316 11.7 2 33 1.8 21.1 36.5%
2018 23 BUF WR 11 16 15 102 56 652 11.6 7 57 3.5 40.8 54.9%

 

Similar year 2 catch rates.  Moulds did have Todd Collins and AVP throwing to him in 1997.  And Zay had a motley crew this year.  Zay had more targets as Moulds had Andre Reed and Quinn Early as WR1 and WR2.  Zay's catch rate in 2018 was better than Early's and Reed's in 1997.  and he had 2 more TDs than either of them

Appreciate the comparison, but even with the similar rates we're still comparing apples to oranges here. Different NFL, different Bills, different offensive schemes, almost entirely different context. Not to mention Moulds is not Zay and vice versa. I always have issues with these player comparisons for that reason whether they be good or bad, Zay or not, so much goes into why the stats looked this way. Ties into the discussions around certain players not performing based on x, y, z stats - if the player's role in the scheme in place is to produce in areas that don't show in the stat box, you can't exactly measure their worth or impact solely based on stats. Which leads me into:

 

On 1/3/2019 at 10:44 AM, WMDman said:

I personally think Zay had a fine season and has been developing nicely, I look forward to next year when he is hopefully in the slot

^this exactly. Just from the past two seasons, most of the issues this board has with Zay in someway tie back to the trade up to get him, and/or comparison with JuJu, and/or his inability to be a WR1. If we look back, the trade up scenario is completely on the FO and to place expectations on the player from that event isn't accurate in the slightest - FO's make mistakes in judgment all the time. But for me I never saw Zay fulfilling a WR1 or even WR2 role in an NFL offense, much less ours. He was a stud slot receiver who shined in a role he hasn't really played since arriving here - not to mention in his first two years, he's had Taylor, Peterman, Allen, Anderson, and Barkley throwing to him. I say this only to highlight wtaf were our expectations for him? And why do we feel he's done after two years of little to no efficacious data?

 

Overall, within the context of him being a primary slot receiver with WR2 role potential, and removing the comparisons to JuJu and the trade up to get him, he's progressed well and if he continues to do so, could very well be a key component to our corps we desperately need. Could be wrong, but I'd like to actually see him utilized more in the roles he's fit to play and within reasonable context and see whether he'll be a longterm aspect of the corps. But all the draft complaints surrounding him and griping for missing out on JuJu should be solely directed at the FO.

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1 minute ago, Meazy26 said:

I don’t think Stevie Johnson ever lifted weights lol 

And fans hated him for it!!! I’m not saying you shouldn’t lift weights but flexibility is way more important for a receiver.  Becoming a monster killed David Boston’s career. He became too slow and couldn’t get separation.

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4 minutes ago, ctk232 said:

That is an incredibly important distinction for a lot of people to realize on this board, not just in reference to Zay. While speed can help create separation, the two are not equivalents, nor do you necessarily need speed to do well in creating separation.

 

Word - though we'll kill ourselves playing that game with the drafts...happens to every team, every year. No one really knew at the time either, despite our preliminary thoughts being ultimately correct.

 

Appreciate the comparison, but even with the similar rates we're still comparing apples to oranges here. Different NFL, different Bills, different offensive schemes, almost entirely different context. Not to mention Moulds is not Zay and vice versa. I always have issues with these player comparisons for that reason whether they be good or bad, Zay or not, so much goes into why the stats looked this way. Ties into the discussions around certain players not performing based on x, y, z stats - if the player's role in the scheme in place is to produce in areas that don't show in the stat box, you can't exactly measure their worth or impact solely based on stats. Which leads me into:

 

^this exactly. Just from the past two seasons, most of the issues this board has with Zay in someway tie back to the trade up to get him, and/or comparison with JuJu, and/or his inability to be a WR1. If we look back, the trade up scenario is completely on the FO and to place expectations on the player from that event isn't accurate in the slightest - FO's make mistakes in judgment all the time. But for me I never saw Zay fulfilling a WR1 or even WR2 role in an NFL offense, much less ours. He was a stud slot receiver who shined in a role he hasn't really played since arriving here - not to mention in his first two years, he's had Taylor, Peterman, Allen, Anderson, and Barkley throwing to him. I say this only to highlight wtaf were our expectations for him? And why do we feel he's done after two years of little to no efficacious data?

 

Overall, within the context of him being a primary slot receiver with WR2 role potential, and removing the comparisons to JuJu and the trade up to get him, he's progressed well and if he continues to do so, could very well be a key component to our corps we desperately need. Could be wrong, but I'd like to actually see him utilized more in the roles he's fit to play and within reasonable context and see whether he'll be a longterm aspect of the corps. But all the draft complaints surrounding him and griping for missing out on JuJu should be solely directed at the FO.

Trust me, I have been wrong once in a while. ?. What made me upset about JuJu miss is I thought JuJu was special and had future #1 receiver talent.  Zay was a favor pick (the Bills did this with Prohel but it was a 7th).  Zay, at the absolute best, is a low end 2.  And fans used to kill Whaley for trade ups. While we did again!

 

fans say there is no talent for Allen to throw too but that’s because of bad decisions this regime made.  They need to come out of this draft with at least 2 good threats in the passing game.

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