Which W-L Outcomes Would You Consider “Success” in 2019?

[Reks Ryan]

21 hours ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

The past Five 1st Round QBs all led their teams to division titles in their second seasons.

 

So it’s a pretty high bar for Mayfield, Darnold, Allen and Rosen.  (Jackson off the hook for his Rookie Season).

 

Obviously only Darnold or Allen can accomplish that in 2019 between the two of them.

 

So I’m going to say the ceiling for 2019 is Division Title and the floor is Wild Card.

 

Anything less than Wild Card such trigger a Seriosus re evaluation in the 2020 off season.

The bolded sentence is an interesting factoid.   And it is almost true.   You forgot about Paxton Lynch.   He did not lead the Broncos to the playoffs last year.     5 out of 6 is still a surprising figure. 

 

I think Mayfield, Allen, and Jackson have the best chance to keep the trend going next year.

[LSHMEAB]

I'm encourage by much of what's going on at OBD, but as the OP stated, we need to see RESULTS next season. That means a minimum of 9-7 IMO or it's gonna start to feel eerily similar to Tom Donahoe's rebuild that lead nowhere.

[NoHuddleKelly12]

19 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

I'm encourage by much of what's going on at OBD, but as the OP stated, we need to see RESULTS next season. That means a minimum of 9-7 IMO or it's gonna start to feel eerily similar to Tom Donahoe's rebuild that lead nowhere.

Donahoe was such a disappointment and that was after coming from a solid always competitive Steeler franchise—I never understood that. 

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Donahoe was such a disappointment and that was after coming from a solid always competitive Steeler franchise—I never understood that. 

That whole thing jaded me at a relatively young age(late teens, early 20's). I fully believed there was a master plan that would result in sustained success. Tom Donahoe was going to bring the Steelers toughness and fantastic drafts. Gregg Williams and his disciplined approach were perfect for Buffalo. He wouldn't allow us to be snake bitten like the Bills were against his Titans. Even the 3-13 season was but a mere, necessary stepping stone to greatness.

 

Due to that experience, I'm skeptical of this particular tear down. I see reasons for optimism and they've (hopefully) found their QB, but my belief will come when I see results.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Make the playoffs = successful 

 

anything less will be not good enough 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

So, for most of the last decade, the Bills W-L record has varied between 6-10 and 9-7.

If you overlook two excursions lower, that's basically been true all of this century. 

Since 2000, our average # of wins is 7, which is also the median. 

Since 2010, our average # of wins and median are also 7.  What that means is, nothing has changed.

 

We had two coaches where we were told "we're close, we just need a couple pieces" (and after 2014, there may have been some truth to that, but one of the pieces was QB).

We had a coach who, by his actions, proposed to win with the Harbaugh/49ers model of stout D, a great run game, and just enough passing from a mobile QB.

 

I think McDermott sold himself as a coach to the Pegulas by proposing that what was needed, was something completely different - not incremental change, but extensive scrutiny, tear-down, and rebuild, thus resulting in a team capable of something different - sustained long-term success.

 

So to me, to see McDermott and Beane as on the right track of producing something different, I need to see a different W-L record outside the standard deviation from 7 wins.  Because there will always be a couple games that hinge on 1-2 plays where luck or the refs are involved, 6-10 and 9-7 are arguably the same record as 7-9.

 

That means we must win at least 10 games.  But to show that things are really different, we need to WIN a playoff game.

On 1/3/2019 at 1:18 PM, Mango said:

For me it is less about W-L. They need to beat and/or play good football against good football teams. We split a bad Jets team. Split an average dolphins team. Lost to 7 playoff teams. 

 

If the Bills go 8-8 next year and 4-4 against playoff teams or teams over .500, I’ll know we are moving in the right direction. 

 

This is a very good point, though 8-8 wouldn't satisfy me.  What bothered me most about last season wasn't the losses, it was the blowouts. 

We need to show that even in a loss, we can hang tough and keep it close.  We need to see the end of the blowouts.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Nearly 40 posts and no one calls out that WildCard teams don't play home games unless both make the Championship game??? A WildCard Home loss would mean losing the AFC Championship at home as the fifth seed against the 6th seed. 

 

The expectation for next year is two fold. Josh plays like a NFL QB and they make the playoffs. Anything less, barring crazy injuries, and it is a failure. 8-8 or above and McBeane keep their jobs regardless of playoffs.  

 

[frostbitmic]

I had to pick the both option ... Record wise I'd love to see 10-6 but the OP has them losing a home playoff game yet winning a road playoff game after going 9-7.

 

Success to me would be 10-6 with a home playoff victory... A home game also means the patriots don't win the division and finish at 9-7 or worse.

[RiotAct]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

This is a very good point, though 8-8 wouldn't satisfy me.  What bothered me most about last season wasn't the losses, it was the blowouts. 

We need to show that even in a loss, we can hang tough and keep it close.  We need to see the end of the blowouts.

The only way I’d possibly be satisfied with 8-8 next season is if 2 of those 8 wins are against the Patriots... AND I win the 50-50 raffle at one of the home games.

[MAJBobby]

Playoffs or Bust

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

The only way I’d possibly be satisfied with 8-8 next season is if 2 of those 8 wins are against the Patriots... AND I win the 50-50 raffle at one of the home games.

 

Whoa, you’re easy

[CommonCents]

I want 10 wins. We are going up for a game in the fall, it would be nice if they can win that one. 

[PlayoffsPlease]

If there is no playoff win, the season is a failure. 

[from_dunkirk]

Who are the 19.31% of people who voted for a "Wild Card Home Game"? LOL. This aren't the 80's anymore.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I'm sorry but the Bills are in full rebuild mode, we will be overhauling the TE, O-Line, WR and our DL needs some upgrades. Our rookie QB is promising but still needs another season of work. We would need a perfect draft, great FA and hope Allen takes that next step to even have a chance to sniff a wild card in 2019.

[billsfan89]

Its all about context but devoid of catastrophic injuries and other factors I think 9 wins is a must. Playoffs can often be driven by other factors (would you fire a coach that went 10-6 but missed the playoffs?) But I think given the assumed spending on players in free agency and another draft class you have to assume a 3 game improvement is a reasonable standard to have. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I need to see 10 wins from Beane and McDermott’s team. 

[Augie]

1 hour ago, CommonCents said:

I want 10 wins. We are going up for a game in the fall, it would be nice if they can win that one. 

 

I would seriousy consider the Jets game. I took both my kids to Jets games when they turned 16. We went 1-1, but I like our odds next year. 

[Real McClappy]

Just win the damn division. When that happens I will be satisfied.