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Was the Bills 2018 Defense the Most Schizophrenic in NFL History?


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I've been watching NFL games for a long time (going back to the original AFL) and I can't remember any defense having the season the Bills just had.  The stats were all over the map.  Some were great (2nd in YPG, less than 20 yards from being first overall, 3rd in YPP, 1st in pass yards per game), some were very good but not great (T-8th in turnovers, 9th in 3rd down conversion, 9th in rushing yards per attempt), some were mediocre (16th in rushing yards per game, 18th in scoring defense), some were awful (26th in sacks, 30th in red zone defense).  A couple of games (Colts, Jags and second Pats game) we were utterly gouged on the ground.  Other than that, the run defense was generally ok.  A final defensive stop in three games (Texans, Dolphins and Jets) gives us three wins which were ultimately losses.  Even individual players seemed to be on a roller coaster (Tre White is solid other than two consecutive  games where he looks like a JAG.)  If anybody has any comparisons to this defense from years past, I'd be interested to hear them. 

 

Assuming we take care of the O-line in free agency, I'm all for upgrading the front seven.  Anthony Barr as a big free agent splash to play OLB opposite Milano (and edge pass rusher on passing downs) and Ed Oliver at #9 to give us some interior pass rush. 

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To me the redzone was the glaring weakness. This needs to improve both from a tactical and personnel standpoint. Edmunds improvement is likely a key here as is the further development of Wallace. In general ,although we were low in sacks, we seemed to get decent pressure and hurries. You can never have enough pass rushers though. Interesting take, I can't remember a team this up and down.

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The Bills (as a team, not just defense) went through LOTS of personnel changes during the season.  They also had rookies/undrafted free agents starting and playing important snaps in many positions.  I think this resulted in a lot of inconsistency.

 

Early in the season, the offense was historically bad.  Special Teams was ridiculously poor all year long.  Consider how many points were given up just because of offensive turnovers and short field position.  Sure, every team has these factored in.  But it seemed that each week, the other units were responsible for allowing double-digits of points on the board.

 

Sean McDermott's defense is built around his linebackers.  So considering he was starting a very raw rookie (Tremaine Edmunds) in the most important spot of his scheme, there were obviously going to be some struggles.  In the first month, veteran QBs were picking on Edmunds in coverage.  After Matt Milano went down, he was frequently a liability in the run game.

 

Also, think about how many bad Cornerbacks we went through (Vontae Davis, Phillips Gaines, Ryan Lewis) during the first half of the season.  It was a revolving door, and teams were eager to aggressively attack whoever was opposite Tre White.  Then suddenly undrafted Levi Wallace gets a shot, and by the season was playing absolute lock-down.

 

 

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We struggled mightily against run heavy fronts. It always amazes me when a team goes with two blocking TEs or an extra OL we keep our base defense. Any Madden player knows when they put 7 blockers on the line you must use 4 to 5 DL & at least 4 or 3 LBs. You load the box and put a hat on a hat. Staying in the base 4-3 or 3-4 front defense is a recipe for disaster. 

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Three areas need improvement:

 

A) Red zone defense was terrible.  The season before last we were near the tops in RED ZONE defense but gave up a decent bit of yards.  We were a bend but don't break defense.  This year we barely bent but when we did we broke.  That will require some serious examining and fixing.

 

B) Even though we were pretty good against the run, there were a few games where we were eviscerated and that cannot happen as often as it did.  That I chalk up to bad game planning and a failed adjustment to fix it during the game.  They need to examine how they can improve on the coaching side of things for that not to repeat again.

 

C)  We need to get after the QB better.  If that means adding more talent or at least dialing up some additional pressure packages, blitzes and stunts.  However it needs to be done, get it done.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

It's not appropriate to use major mental illnesses or medications to treat them in describing a NFL team's defense.

 

These things aren't laughing matters, particularly to those who are diagnosed.  

Didn't mean to offend.  The word has a generic meaning outside the medical field (roughly equivalent to inconsistent) and that was only intended use.

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5 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

It's not appropriate to use major mental illnesses or medications to treat them in describing a NFL team's defense.

 

These things aren't laughing matters, particularly to those who are diagnosed.  

INGSOC has spoken.

 

I know some diagnosed, possibly including me: most find therapeutic value in poking fun at themselves.

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53 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

I've been watching NFL games for a long time (going back to the original AFL) and I can't remember any defense having the season the Bills just had.  The stats were all over the map.  Some were great (2nd in YPG, less than 20 yards from being first overall, 3rd in YPP, 1st in pass yards per game), some were very good but not great (T-8th in turnovers, 9th in 3rd down conversion, 9th in rushing yards per attempt), some were mediocre (16th in rushing yards per game, 18th in scoring defense), some were awful (26th in sacks, 30th in red zone defense).  A couple of games (Colts, Jags and second Pats game) we were utterly gouged on the ground.  Other than that, the run defense was generally ok.  A final defensive stop in three games (Texans, Dolphins and Jets) gives us three wins which were ultimately losses.  Even individual players seemed to be on a roller coaster (Tre White is solid other than two consecutive  games where he looks like a JAG.)  If anybody has any comparisons to this defense from years past, I'd be interested to hear them. 

 

Assuming we take care of the O-line in free agency, I'm all for upgrading the front seven.  Anthony Barr as a big free agent splash to play OLB opposite Milano (and edge pass rusher on passing downs) and Ed Oliver at #9 to give us some interior pass rush. 

 

This is why "stat" checking in the NFL is very misleading.  Football is the one sport where stat metrics are very unreliable because there is so much context needed and every single player on the field completely depends on other players to do their jobs well in order to their own job to the best of their availability.  For example...

 

Its harder on the defense as a unit to do their job if the offense and ST are struggling and forcing them onto the field frequently with 3 and outs and short fields to defend.  DB's depend on the guys up front to get pressure on the QB, because most starters can pick apart a defense if given lots of time to throw and makes it harder for DB's to hold coverage for long periods of time.  DB also depend on the help behind them with safeties in how they cover a route/play.  Linebackers need those guys up front to tie up blockers to get through the line.  Defensive lineman depend on the secondary and linebackers to hold coverage tight to buy them time to get to the QB.  Same on offense, all those guys need the guys around them to do their job in order to do the best they can at their job.  

 

When you look back at this season, the defense had its worst games while Allen was hurt and we had a putrid offense with NP and DA.  We honestly would have probably finished #1 in the NFL on defense had it not been for the Allen injury.  So the defensive unit looks more up and down given who was playing behind center.  

 

Overall, we have a playoff caliber defense, even championship caliber.  We are one more elite player away from being a truly elite defense.  And Edmunds has a ton of potential to develop into that Elite player right now and we have other very promising young guys going into next year that include Taron, Levi, and Horrible Harry.

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7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This is why "stat" checking in the NFL is very misleading.  Football is the one sport where stat metrics are very unreliable because there is so much context needed and every single player on the field completely depends on other players to do their jobs well in order to their own job to the best of their availability.  For example...

 

Its harder on the defense as a unit to do their job if the offense and ST are struggling and forcing them onto the field frequently with 3 and outs and short fields to defend.  DB's depend on the guys up front to get pressure on the QB, because most starters can pick apart a defense if given lots of time to throw and makes it harder for DB's to hold coverage for long periods of time.  DB also depend on the help behind them with safeties in how they cover a route/play.  Linebackers need those guys up front to tie up blockers to get through the line.  Defensive lineman depend on the secondary and linebackers to hold coverage tight to buy them time to get to the QB.  Same on offense, all those guys need the guys around them to do their job in order to do the best they can at their job.  

 

When you look back at this season, the defense had its worst games while Allen was hurt and we had a putrid offense with NP and DA.  We honestly would have probably finished #1 in the NFL on defense had it not been for the Allen injury.  So the defensive unit looks more up and down given who was playing behind center.  

 

Overall, we have a playoff caliber defense, even championship caliber.  We are one more elite player away from being a truly elite defense.  And Edmunds has a ton of potential to develop into that Elite player right now and we have other very promising young guys going into next year that include Taron, Levi, and Horrible Harry.

 

I agree with most of this but that still doesn't explain their Red Zone Defense.  It was bad, really bad and cost us two games.    

 

And it did appear there were times that the defense wasn't generating pass pressure and we really didn't adjust and try to do things to raise the pressure.

 

And, the three awful games we had against the run.  Yes, we did really well if you discount those three games, but that needs to be addressed.

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I think there's a correlation between sacks/RZ defense. I remember far too many TD's in the back of the EZ where the QB had all day to throw. That's why I want an edge rusher. Theoretically, you could kick Edmunds outside and sign a middle linebacker, who are a dime a dozen. Kill two birds with one stone by improving the pass rush as well as the run defense. 

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46 minutes ago, boater said:

I'd diagnose the D as Bipolar versus Schizo.

 

They had stellar days or awful days... no mediocre days.

 

A pallet of lithium should help.

anytime someone uses a lithium reference, i'm happy. 

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2 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

I agree with most of this but that still doesn't explain their Red Zone Defense.  It was bad, really bad and cost us two games.    

 

And it did appear there were times that the defense wasn't generating pass pressure and we really didn't adjust and try to do things to raise the pressure.

 

And, the three awful games we had against the run.  Yes, we did really well if you discount those three games, but that needs to be addressed.

 

I don't disagree with anything you said, but there are a few things to consider too in this regard.

  • We had several injuries at DB opposite Tre and all were young players we had to rotate around
  • Edmunds is only 20 and learning to play MLB, so I think as he gets better, especially at play recognition, it will certainly impact our Redzone defense
  • We put the defense on the field a lot and frequently with short fields in several of the games you mentioned due to offensive issues

So while everything you said is quite accurate, I do feel like going into next year its reasonable to expect this defense to be better with the growth of our young guys on defense and the expected improvement with the offense.  

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the trend of not showing up for a game at times is alarming to say the least. in '17 when we had back to back games against the Saints and Chargers where you could very reasonably argue we didn't show up that day could have been written off as an anomaly. however, when we had 4, possibly 5 games this year where we did the exact same thing is cause for concern. i am not convinced that McCoach is the right man for the job to this point. he will have to not have any of these moments next year to dispel this concern.

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6 minutes ago, Foxx said:

the trend of not showing up for a game at times is alarming to say the least. in '17 when we had back to back games against the Saints and Chargers where you could very reasonably argue we didn't show up that day could have been written off as an anomaly. however, when we had 4, possibly 5 games this year where we did the exact same thing is cause for concern. i am not convinced that McCoach is the right man for the job to this point. he will have to not have any of these moments next year to dispel this concern.

This is a 5 year plan. Should they falter next season, you have to understand it's really only year one of the rebuild.

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