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THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - WHAT A MEAL!


Shaw66

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2 hours ago, Figster said:

Shaw simply pointed out Zay Jones is middle of the pack as a # 2 in his 2nd season under not so great conditions. Looks like Alpha did some heavy partying over New Years because his reply missed the mark IMO.

 

With all due respect to Alpha because we normally see eye to eye.

 

Zay what ? (to all the skeptics)

 

Zay,  give him a chance, and lets continue this discussion at the end of next season...

I agree. Surprised where Alpha is coming from.

 

I'd like 800 yards and 10 yards per catch from my #2. I don't care if the catches are boring or highlight real catches. 

 

Zay can easily be in that territory on a team that throws the ball 100 more times. 

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Another comparison for Zay.   The thread about the best rookies in the league says Calvin RIdley is already one of the best #2s in the league.    Let's take that as true, even though on most teams Ridley may be a #1.   

 

Ridley caught 8 more passes than Zay for 170 more yards.  That's the difference between one of the best #2s and Zay.   And Ridley was on a team that threw 118 more passes, and he was on the field with a top 5 #1 and a top 5 slot receiver.   Do you think Zay would have caught eight more passes playing for Atlanta with Ryan, Jones and Sanu?

 

Zay was fine, and he'll be fine next season.  Could someone do better?  Sure.  But he was far from being a liability in 2018.  Next season he'll be on the field with better wideouts (either because McKenzie and Foster will improve, almost without question, or because the Bills will acquire better talent), with better pass protection (couldn't have been a lot worse) and a better QB.  Zay won't be a problem.  

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I do believe McCoy has more in his tank as well, Shaw66. Our 3 best OL from last year left for various reasons. That was a devastating blow to the offense as a whole. The OL coach was fired today. It looks like a new coach and help on that line will be addressed in the off season. I'm pretty confident about McCoy actually. The rushing attack will transform. We'll find out soon enough if the change will be for the better. I think it will. The coach has also made a point of calling out the OL play recently as well. Not the best draft for OL but I think the front office is all ready evaluating talent and getting ready for FA and the draft.

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As reards Allen and trying to be 'Superman', I think we will have to beg to differ Shaw. I understand perfectly what you are saying about the 'process' and it's undeniably logical. But it still won't stop the kid from taking a shot too often, now and again. He's simply too competitive, not to.

 

The 'process' is going to be there, to try and make him reduce the instances of this. As it's a process, the goal would be to stop all instances of 'hero ball'. I just don't think that is possible with Allen's competitive instincts. Tbh, I don't want that attitude taken away from him. He will make some of those throws, because he has that amount of ability. I want him to take his shots.

 

What I do want also though, is a better understanding of the when and where to take the shot, much of which will come with both experience and coaching. While there's only so much time to get a play off, there should be enough time in that, to make the point about not making an error, especially when you aren't far from the half, with a lead. i.e. no hero ball, take what you are given.

 

Just to be clear, I'm by no means down on Allen, I just see that particular int before the half, as a prime learning experience. ;)

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On ‎1‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 9:52 PM, Shaw66 said:

He was 59th in the league in receptions this year.   Take out the running backs and tight ends and he was in the low 40s.   That means he was average for a #2 wideout.  

 

He was 61st in yards this season.  Take out the running backs and tight ends and he was around 50.   That means he was average for a 32 wideout.  

 

That's on a team that was 28th in the league in attempts.   

 

His season was quite similar to Robert Woods' second season.   He catches about the same number of passes for about the same number of yards with about the same ratio of catches to targets.   

 

Maybe all the things you say about him are true.   Somehow in his second season he's an average NFL #2 wideout.  

Stat wise Zay may have the receptions and yards of a #2.  That may make him look like an average #2, but he was targeted like a #1.  You said yourself that the Bills were 28th in the league in attempts.  Zay was 30th in the league in targets.  That means percentage wise Zay was getting a lot more targets than most.  If the best he can put up is average #2 in that context then he didn't do very well.

 

Football Outsiders has him ranked 71/72 out of 84 ranked receivers for whatever that is worth.

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1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

Stat wise Zay may have the receptions and yards of a #2.  That may make him look like an average #2, but he was targeted like a #1.  You said yourself that the Bills were 28th in the league in attempts.  Zay was 30th in the league in targets.  That means percentage wise Zay was getting a lot more targets than most.  If the best he can put up is average #2 in that context then he didn't do very well.

 

Football Outsiders has him ranked 71/72 out of 84 ranked receivers for whatever that is worth.

Thanks.  Those are both interesting points.  

 

And of course I may be wrong.   Still, I'd guess that next season you'll see a guy who is targeted like a #2 and has stats like a #2.  

 

What I see is decent speed, good but not great hands, hard work and commitment.  

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16 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks.  Those are both interesting points.  

 

And of course I may be wrong.   Still, I'd guess that next season you'll see a guy who is targeted like a #2 and has stats like a #2.  

 

What I see is decent speed, good but not great hands, hard work and commitment.  

You can't be serious?  He's a Bill & I hope for the best, but underwhelmed through 2 seasons.  

 

I'd like to see:

 

1. Hold on to catchable balls

2. Win a 50/50 battle

3. Crisper routes & cuts.

4. Separation 

 

All of which says right now he is below average on all accounts.....

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1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

You can't be serious?  He's a Bill & I hope for the best, but underwhelmed through 2 seasons.  

 

I'd like to see:

 

1. Hold on to catchable balls

2. Win a 50/50 battle

3. Crisper routes & cuts.

4. Separation 

 

All of which says right now he is below average on all accounts.....

1.  I thought he caught the ball fine this season.  Had a few drops, but increasingly he seems to be catching all the balls he should.

 

2.  I don't think #2s catch a lot of 50-50 balls.  What #2s do is run good routes and catch the ball when their route attacks a weakness in the defense.   That is, #2s are told to run their routes and be ready; the QB will read the defense and throw it to you.  

 

3.  I actually liked his route running this season.

 

4.  Separation is a myth, at least for #2s.  If you can get separation in a pure one on one situation, you're a #1.  #2s and slot receivers get separation based on scheme, not on physical ability.  

 

Plus, he's played about one and half seasons.   Like everyone that young, he's still learning.  

 

I'm sure replacing Zay is not a high priority for McBeane.  They want a #1, for sure.  They a tight end.  They want o linemen.  They want a running back.  They want a lot of guys on defense.  Zay is behind all of them on the to-do list.  

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Sorry I watched Galloway vs. The Bills do everything in my list above in that one game.

 

That is one example and as said every game I watch I see great catches multiple times that not a single Bill made in 16 games.

 

You're right that Zany is not a priority, but need a whole lot more from him, and yes my fingers are crossed. 

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29 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Sorry I watched Galloway vs. The Bills do everything in my list above in that one game.

 

That is one example and as said every game I watch I see great catches multiple times that not a single Bill made in 16 games.

 

You're right that Zany is not a priority, but need a whole lot more from him, and yes my fingers are crossed. 

When you watched Galloway that day, you saw one of the 10 or 20 best receiving days by any receiver in the league in 2018.   He was spectacular. 

 

There are probably 15 receivers in the league who can be dominant like that.   Let's be generous and call it 30 who can dominate like that.   Most of them are #1s or are on their way to becoming #1s quickly.   

 

Of course I'd like to have a guy like Galloway as my #2.  32 GMs would too.  He's not the kind of guy you can expect to have in that position, at least until there's a general upgrade in other talent on the team.  

 

Let's face it, if a guy Galloway is in the Bills' camp next summer, he isn't taking Zay's #2 job.  He's the #1 guy, and Zay probably keeps his job over Foster as the #2.   The way Zay loses his job is the Bills get lucky in the draft and come up with a really talented receiver AND Foster continues his growth.  

 

It's possible, of course, particularly because Beane so adamantly goes after the best player available.  So the Bills could get a really good rookie receiver.  And it's also possible that the Bills continue to unlock Foster's talent and he makes another leap forward in 2019.   He has the physical ability.

 

So you could get your Galloway, but I think it's much more likely you're going to have Zay.   I predict you'll be happy with him.  

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4 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Stat wise Zay may have the receptions and yards of a #2.  That may make him look like an average #2, but he was targeted like a #1.  You said yourself that the Bills were 28th in the league in attempts.  Zay was 30th in the league in targets.  That means percentage wise Zay was getting a lot more targets than most.  If the best he can put up is average #2 in that context then he didn't do very well.

 

Football Outsiders has him ranked 71/72 out of 84 ranked receivers for whatever that is worth.

I don't think Zay was targeted like a #1, and our #1 in KB was a joke which doesn't help matters because it allows the opposition the ability to focus more on #2 WR IMO.

 

Rookie QB on a team near the bottom of the league in attempts. I'm not sure what the ranking are supposed to tell you.

 

My eye test tells me Zay Jones is developing good chemistry with Josh Allen. 

 

Myself personally, I'm expecting a break out season from Jones next season.

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19 minutes ago, Figster said:

I don't think Zay was targeted like a #1, and our #1 in KB was a joke which doesn't help matters because it allows the opposition the ability to focus more on #2 WR IMO.

 

Rookie QB on a team near the bottom of the league in attempts. I'm not sure what the ranking are supposed to tell you.

 

My eye test tells me Zay Jones is developing good chemistry with Josh Allen. 

 

Myself personally, I'm expecting a break out season from Jones next season.

He was targeted like a #1.  He had 102 targets.  Most on this team by a big margin and in the area of #1s around the league.  Considering further that our team was 28th in pass attempts... that's a pretty big number.

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4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks.  Those are both interesting points.  

 

And of course I may be wrong.   Still, I'd guess that next season you'll see a guy who is targeted like a #2 and has stats like a #2.  

 

What I see is decent speed, good but not great hands, hard work and commitment.  

What I would like to see is better separation and more consistent hands.  He made a few nice grabs in the last Miami game and some nice ones sporadically throughout the season. He never, that I recall, made any great catches. Every receiver has drops but he has a bit more.  He only had a 55% catch rate which is pretty abysmal.

 

Allen is criticized around here all the time for his accuracy and completion%.  Its a completely different picture if not just Zay, but any of these guys just made a couple catches that hit them in the hands each game.  In some cases its a completely different game.  I think that Zays drops, and any receiver on this team, look worse than they might be just because of this.  They almost never come up big in big moments that can change the course of a game.  When they do it's more often then not called back on some type of penalty.  I think that for myself, I expect more out of Zay then the rest because of his draft status.  We traded up to get this guy and it is his second year in.  I expect him to do more than some undrafted off the street that hadn't played half a season.

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22 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

He was targeted like a #1.  He had 102 targets.  Most on this team by a big margin and in the area of #1s around the league.  Considering further that our team was 28th in pass attempts... that's a pretty big number.

Mind supplying a link that supports your post. ( targeted like a 1 )

 

Most targeting stats/rankings include TE's and RB's.

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5 minutes ago, Figster said:

Mind supplying a link that supports your post. ( targeted like a 1 )

 

Most targeting stats include TE's and RB's.

Sure...

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#targets

 

Sort by targets.  Zay was ranked 30th in targets.  That is already in the #1 area.  Now you can count the 4TEs ranked above him and do the math.  He would be ranked 26th in targets among WR's.

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2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Sure...

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#targets

 

Sort by targets.  Zay was ranked 30th in targets.  That is already in the #1 area.  Now you can count the 4TEs ranked above him and do the math.  He would be ranked 26th in targets among WR's.

Thanks for the link.  It's a place I haven't used, but it seems to do a lot of good things.   

 

Home page has Josh Allen up as having thrown the longest pass - air yards - in 2018.

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3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks for the link.  It's a place I haven't used, but it seems to do a lot of good things.   

 

Home page has Josh Allen up as having thrown the longest pass - air yards - in 2018.

Yes, Mayfield also had one of the longest air yard throws too.  I knew he was good, but I didn't realize he had that arm strength too. I started looking at the site about two years ago.  I not only like the stats but I love looking at the passing charts.

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