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Zay Jones: The numbers show that he is a #2.


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6 minutes ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

Well there’s is no doubt he has improved a bit since last year.  I also would be fine keeping him on the roster.

 

My only point is that this season his stats don’t really give a good idea of his true contributions this years. While they are decent stats for a #2, I do believe that many of his catches came at the end of the game when defenses were allowing catches in front of them.  I also remember a number of very untimely drops from Zay and can’t remember one game where he really took over like good receivers do.

 

like I said, he has improved but still has a long way to go.  I do agree a better #1 WR would help his production

 

...fair enough...he's on probation until we set what draft/FA bring to the table and the eventual camp as well as pre-season competition....stay tuned............

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4 hours ago, JoPar_v2 said:

Pretty sure Zay was drafted to be a solid #2 receiver? He’s on his way to becoming one. So not sure what the problem is. 

He needs to catch the ball...

27 minutes ago, offyourocker said:

Eric Moulds

1996 20 rec 279 yards

1997 27 rec 294 yards

When you have to quote wr stats from the 90's you know the guy you are comparing him to is in trouble.

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31 minutes ago, offyourocker said:

Eric Moulds

1996 20 rec 279 yards

1997 27 rec 294 yards

 

Except Moulds wasn't the #2 WR in either of those seasons

 

1996 Andre Reed    66    1036
1996 Quinn Early    50    798
1996 Steve Tasker    21    372

 

1997 Andre Reed    60    880
1997 Quinn Early    60    853

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6 hours ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

He's a garbage-time specialist.  He was in college too.  

 

The only reason why he has as many receptions as he does is entirely due to lack of options. 

I dont agree with Ghost much.....but I do here.....it seems like Zay's numbers come AFTER the game has been dedided (usually a loss)

 

You dont see him making the play when the game i on the line.

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Right now I consider Zay no higher than a #4 slot guy and that's borderline. Robert Foster is a clear #3 wr who becomes your deep "stretch the field" guy. This team currently has no #1 or #2 wr. I think Tyrell Williams would make a good #2 and either Marquise Brown or NKeal Harry as a #1 projected guy? I've seen Brown and Harry projected late 1st or early 2nd.

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Receiver is a position that has a steeper learning curve than most.  Rookies can sometimes make a splash, but it usually can take a couple of years before you know what you have.

 

I see a guy who made a huge leap from last year, but is still inconsistent.  He will benefit from the Bills adding a true 1 to the roster.

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4 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

Probably so.  How many on this board have the player college evals and knowledge that the coaches, GMs, and scouts have on draft day?  Do you?  Doubt it.  Hindsight is pretty much what we have in absence of professional scouting reports, not the stuff that the Mel Kipers and Mike Mayocks of the world put out.  

 

You evaluate their production relative to their draft position, not to other players that you could have had at that specific position.

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11 hours ago, Binghamton Beast said:

But....he is a #1 right now (I think) and only has that number. What if he was looked at as a #2? What would his catch total be? What has it been the last four weeks or so with Foster’s emergence?

 

IMO, Zay is a borderline 3/4 receiver. Dime a dozen guy that belongs nowhere near the top two.

No Foster is the #1.  He is Josh Allen's preferred Target and the player teams try to shut down.

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The statistical analysis cited to demonstrate Zay is a 2 is about as deep a dive as jumping into a puddle.  It proves nothing.  The fact is, much of his production comes when games were not in doubt:

 

He had 3 catches for 26 yards late at Baltimore.  2 catches for 63 yards versus SD when Buffalo was down 21-3 or worse.  He had 1 catch at Minnesota for 17 yards when the score was 27-0.  At GB, his 4 catches for 38 yards all came when the score was 19-0 or worse.  Against Indy, he had 1 catch for 15 yards with the score 24-0.  He had 3 catches for 7 yards versus Chicago with the difference of 28 points or worse.  At the Jets, 3 of his catches (for 28 yards) came with Buffalo up more than 2 TDs. And at NE, all 5 of his receptions for 67 yards came with Buffalo out of it.  

 

By my count, that's 22 catches for 261 yards (and 2 TDs) when the game is not in question.  There aren't many WR2s who log 45% of their production in garbage time.     

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