Trades will be Beane's main focus, not free agency

[Inigo Montoya]

As the salary cap has gone up and teams are better able to resign their impending free agents, less and less talent is available in the free agency market.  That is why we have seen such a sharp uptick in the number of trades in the NFL during the last few seasons, and why I think the amount of trades are going to continue to increase as teams realize it may be the best way to buff their rosters with the free agency market drying up.

 

It has always been hard for the Bills to get free agency talent without paying through the nose for them.  Buffalo is not a place most players want to play.  When we are competing against other teams who can field a similar monetary offer but they also have a big market, a dome, good weather, or low / no state income taxes,  that puts the Bills even further behind the eight ball.  Buffalo is a great place to play football, you just have to get them here for them to figure that out.  Just ask Shady.  He didn't want to play here and would have never played here if he hadn't been traded.  Now he sees what a great place it is to play.

 

Beane does not have a lot of players left for trade bait with the Bill's roster stripped down to the studs this year.  That's why I think we will start to see Beane trading away draft picks as the draft approaches (his only trade commodity) for offensive line and receiving help.  You see quality players being traded for late round draft picks all the time.  Here are some traded players and their trade compensation from just this year;

 

RB Ty Montgomery    7th rounder

WR Golden Tate       3rd rounder

WR Demaryius Thomas    4th & 7th rounders

OT Corey Robinson   7th rounder

OT Shon Coleman    7th rounder

C Brett Jones     7th rounder

WR Tavon Austin  6th rounder

 

Certainly not all of them are game changers, but they do represent a reasonable risk / reward ratio for the draft capital spent.  We have a lot of money for signing these players to long term contracts if they pan out, money that we might have trouble spending in the limited free agency market.  I bet Beane will target players with 1-2 years left on their rookie contracts who have shown some ability and start making calls to their GMs dangling our trade picks as bait. We have all of our draft picks plus an extra 4th, 5th, and 7th this year.  

 

With all the coaching changes and rebuilds that are going to happen this off season, (at least six, Jets, Bucs, Jags, GB, Browns, Cards) there may be a lot of teams looking to reshape their roster and they might value draft picks over the last regime's players.  Just look at Oakland, Chucky has unloaded everyone for picks.  

 

If Beane can unload late round picks for proven NFL quality starters, I think he will jump on it rather than rolling the dice in the draft.  If a trade gets done, look for Beane to lock them up on a longer term contract with all the cap space we have.  He has definitely shown he is not afraid to make a deal.  I am just not that optimistic the Bills will be able to get a lot done in free agency this year.  Going forward, I think trades will replace free agency as the main way to build a roster outside of the draft, and I expect Beane to be all over it this off season.

 

Edited December 28, 2018 by Inigo Montoya

[BruceVilanch]

I'm good on Demaryius his age and recent achilles tear don't make him worth it for me. I'm not sold on TY or Tavon either. Tavon has bounced around from team to team and has never shown a real impact. 

[Aussie Joe]

They have had some success with Day 3 picks of late ( Milano, Johnson and Teller) so I’m not so sure he will be giving too many away..

 

Exception will be to move up in the draft which he has shown he is not afraid to do..

Edited December 28, 2018 by Aussie Joe

[BillsFan1988]

I defintely see Beane making a few trades for skill position players. WRs, TEs, RBs all on the table. Beane will also attack free agency with non skill postions players mostly on offensive line where we will spend big on 2 maybe 3 players. The defense will defintely get some love too via free agency. 

 

A couple possible trade candidates will be 

#1 Wr Aj Green - I can see the Bengels moving in a new direction this offseason and the Bills will surely show major interest in Aj . Im not sure what it would take to get him but its defintely gonna cost more then Philly paid for Golden Tate which was a 3rd. Aj can cost multiple pks im thinking a 2 and a 4 can possibly get him here. To be honest i dont know if i would do that but McBeane has shown they dont care about age of skill position players as much as other teams do. 

 

#2 Wr- Marvin Jones. MJ wont cost much 6.5 mil per yr in 2019 and 20 seasons. He'll be 29 when the season starts. Mj most likely if traded will command at least a 3rd rd pk at that type of cost controlled salary. 13 mil over 2yrs is dirt cheap in today NFL. As a player MJ fits what Beane looks for in a wr he's a deep threat with big time catch radius. If Marvin becomes available the Bills will defintely take a chance on him.

[BillyWhiteShows]

1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

As the salary cap has gone up and teams are better able to resign their impending free agents, less and less talent is available in the free agency market.  That is why we have seen such a sharp uptick in the number of trades in the NFL during the last few seasons, and why I think the amount of trades are going to continue to increase as teams realize it may be the best way to buff their rosters with the free agency market drying up.

 

It has always been hard for the Bills to get free agency talent without paying through the nose for them.  Buffalo is not a place most players want to play.  When we are competing against other teams who can field a similar monetary offer but they also have a big market, a dome, good weather, or low / no state income taxes,  that puts the Bills even further behind the eight ball.  Buffalo is a great place to play football, you just have to get them here for them to figure that out.  Just ask Shady.  He didn't want to play here and would have never played here if he hadn't been traded.  Now he sees what a great place it is to play.

 

Beane does not have a lot of players left for trade bait with the Bill's roster stripped down to the studs this year.  That's why I think we will start to see Beane trading away draft picks as the draft approaches (his only trade commodity) for offensive line and receiving help.  You see quality players being traded for late round draft picks all the time.  Here are some traded players and their trade compensation from just this year;

 

RB Ty Montgomery    7th rounder

WR Golden Tate       3rd rounder

WR Demaryius Thomas    4th & 7th rounders

OT Corey Robinson   7th rounder

OT Shon Coleman    7th rounder

C Brett Jones     7th rounder

WR Tavon Austin  6th rounder

 

Certainly not all of them are game changers, but they do represent a reasonable risk / reward ratio for the draft capital spent.  We have a lot of money for signing these players to long term contracts if they pan out, money that we might have trouble spending in the limited free agency market.  I bet Beane will target players with 1-2 years left on their rookie contracts who have shown some ability and start making calls to their GMs dangling our trade picks as bait. We have all of our draft picks plus an extra 4th, 5th, and 7th this year.  

 

With all the coaching changes and rebuilds that are going to happen this off season, (at least six, Jets, Bucs, Jags, GB, Browns, Cards) there may be a lot of teams looking to reshape their roster and they might value draft picks over the last regime's players.  Just look at Oakland, Chucky has unloaded everyone for picks.  

 

If Beane can unload late round picks for proven NFL quality starters, I think he will jump on it rather than rolling the dice in the draft.  If a trade gets done, look for Beane to lock them up on a longer term contract with all the cap space we have.  He has definitely shown he is not afraid to make a deal.  I am just not that optimistic the Bills will be able to get a lot done in free agency this year.  Going forward, I think trades will replace free agency as the main way to build a roster outside of the draft, and I expect Beane to be all over it this off season.

 

 

I think the premise makes sense and I can see Beane trading lower round picks for players.  That seems to be something he tries.  

 

But I also don’t believe in the whole “free agents won’t come to Buffalo” excuse.  Yes Josh Brown chose Baltimore over Buffalo, but it has little to do with any of the circumstances you referenced.  It was more about playing for a team that had a better chance of winning now with an established QB/Coach than one where the QB position was a huge question mark.  

 

I do think that Josh Allen’s flashes could help free agents on offense. 

 

With that being said, I think Beane will look to sign more guys like Micah Hyde in ‘2017 than compete for the biggest names on the market 

[The Jokeman]

1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

RB Ty Montgomery    7th rounder

WR Golden Tate       3rd rounder

WR Demaryius Thomas    4th & 7th rounders

OT Corey Robinson   7th rounder

OT Shon Coleman    7th rounder

C Brett Jones     7th rounder

WR Tavon Austin  6th rounder

 

 

 

I'm pretty sure Golden Tate is set to be an UFA so not sure why we'd trade for him. Thomas is an intriguing guy yet not sure Houston be quick to dump him since they originally traded for him. Austin is nothing more than a returnman/4th WR at best, not sure we need to trade for him as can find guys like him in free agency almost every season. Ty Montgomery like Thomas was traded for so not sure why his new team would be so quick to move him. If an offensive lineman is worth playing most teams aren't going to trade them unless getting overpaid and underproducing/injured (see Cordy Glenn) so not sure we could get Robinson, Coleman or Jones. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Jeetz1231 said:

I'm good on Demaryius his age and recent achilles tear don't make him worth it for me. I'm not sold on TY or Tavon either. Tavon has bounced around from team to team and has never shown a real impact. 

 

I'd have been in on Demaryius at the trade deadline. He showed in Houston he can still play and B'OB was glowing about his contribution in the receiver room with the young guys. He was exactly the kind of deal (he had this year and next on his contract) that I thought the Bills should have been making. A pro's pro who came in as a raw route runner and now is as good as there is around, a leader and someone who would have been a reliable comfort blanket for Josh Allen drawing double coverage and allowing us to draft and develop a rook on the other side without the pressure of him being the #1 immediately.

 

I was still up for bringing him in if, as it was expected they would, the Texans cut him at the end of the year with Fuller due back for next season and Clowney and others to pay. However, regrettably, a guy coming off an achilles at this stage of his career is a big red flag. Sadly I think it probably puts paid to that idea not least because you would lose the ability to have him in and around things during OTAs and mini camp etc with those young guys you want him to mentor.

 

Makes me more willing to consider Golden Tate in FA. The Bills need leadership in that room. Otherwise we are going to have the least experienced WR corps in the league next year and I don't see how that fits the narrative of putting pieces around Josh Allen.

[The Jokeman]

14 minutes ago, BillsFan1988 said:

A couple possible trade candidates will be 

#1 Wr Aj Green - I can see the Bengels moving in a new direction this offseason and the Bills will surely show major interest in Aj . Im not sure what it would take to get him but its defintely gonna cost more then Philly paid for Golden Tate which was a 3rd. Aj can cost multiple pks im thinking a 2 and a 4 can possibly get him here. To be honest i dont know if i would do that but McBeane has shown they dont care about age of skill position players as much as other teams do. 

 

#2 Wr- Marvin Jones. MJ wont cost much 6.5 mil per yr in 2019 and 20 seasons. He'll be 29 when the season starts. Mj most likely if traded will command at least a 3rd rd pk at that type of cost controlled salary. 13 mil over 2yrs is dirt cheap in today NFL. As a player MJ fits what Beane looks for in a wr he's a deep threat with big time catch radius. If Marvin becomes available the Bills will defintely take a chance on him.

Jones be a nice add as he's a Robert Woods talent aka a good number 2 that at times can be a number 1. AJ Green is a great player and can't see the Bengals trading him, I know Boyd's stepped in for him when he's been hurt yet a talent like Green is hard to just give away. 

[BillsFan2313]

2 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

I'm pretty sure Golden Tate is set to be an UFA so not sure why we'd trade for him. Thomas is an intriguing guy yet not sure Houston be quick to dump him since they originally traded for him. Austin is nothing more than a returnman/4th WR at best, not sure we need to trade for him as can find guys like him in free agency almost every season. Ty Montgomery like Thomas was traded for so not sure why his new team would be so quick to move him. If an offensive lineman is worth playing most teams aren't going to trade them unless getting overpaid and underproducing/injured (see Cordy Glenn) so not sure we could get Robinson, Coleman or Jones. 

 

 

He was giving the trades that happened this past year 

[26CornerBlitz]

Doubtful.  The picks will be used to fortify the roster as will the available cap space to sign UFAs.  There may be a trade or two, but that won't be the focus of the offseason. 

[Aussie Joe]

Can’t see Beane trading  Day 2 picks and not sure that will even get it done for Green

 

You build through the draft he has said plenty of times..

 

As I have mentioned before though,  I would give up a Day 3 pick for Mohamed Sanu who has another 2 years left at $7mil a year... I think he has plenty left in the tank and screams process and would be a great mentor to the young guys on the team..

 

Problem is that the Falcons love him so doubt they are giving him up for that..

[The Jokeman]

Just now, BillsFan2313 said:

 

 

He was giving the trades that happened this past year 

Derp, thanks for that I guess I was too lazy to read his first paragraph. I guess his title was a little misleading. 

[Rc2catch]

Trading away picks for proven vets sounds good. But that’s not exactly what they’ve shown they want. 

Just my opinion but they’re building a nucleus of young talent who have not peaked yet. It seems to be more about getting players who can accept coaching and progress. I’m looking at them possibly signing a lot of “who is that” free agents as opposed to “yeah he was the #2 rated guy at his position” 

i could see them breaking the bank for the offensive line in free agency but just my guess would be they’ll be targeting guys we don’t know that well in the hopes they come here and progress into starting caliber players. Sprinkle in hopefully some elite rookie level talent in the draft and they have a team. 

I expect more building blocks this offseason and the real “all in” moves the following offseason. 

Year 3 of Allen’s contract as long as he shows progress and is the guy is when you go all out to add as many big name players or contracts as possible. 

Either way, with a lot of huge names to retire soon (Eli, Ben, rivers, Brady, brees) there is gonna be some huge shakeups the next few seasons and teams rosters. Let’s hope we’re built to be the next team to step into the elite level for 10 years 

[CommonCents]

Zach Ertz should be that #1 trade target for OBD.

[mjt328]

I'm sure that Beane will explore trade options, but I don't see us moving too many picks.

He knows the importance of building a roster through the draft, and we only have so many selections.

 

This regime has done a pretty good job of drafting so far, and their biggest mistake (Kelvin Benjamin) was trading a pick for a veteran player.

 

I don't know why Bills fans get so self-conscious when it comes to Free Agency.  They always whine that "nobody wants to play in Buffalo" when history shows that big-name free agents have always been willing to sign here, when we had the money to offer.  And when it comes to the top Day 1 free agents, there is always a bidding war to overpay for their services.

[BillsFan1988]

9 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

Trading away picks for proven vets sounds good. But that’s not exactly what they’ve shown they want. 

Just my opinion but they’re building a nucleus of young talent who have not peaked yet. It seems to be more about getting players who can accept coaching and progress. I’m looking at them possibly signing a lot of “who is that” free agents as opposed to “yeah he was the #2 rated guy at his position” 

i could see them breaking the bank for the offensive line in free agency but just my guess would be they’ll be targeting guys we don’t know that well in the hopes they come here and progress into starting caliber players. Sprinkle in hopefully some elite rookie level talent in the draft and they have a team. 

I expect more building blocks this offseason and the real “all in” moves the following offseason. 

Year 3 of Allen’s contract as long as he shows progress and is the guy is when you go all out to add as many big name players or contracts as possible. 

Either way, with a lot of huge names to retire soon (Eli, Ben, rivers, Brady, brees) there is gonna be some huge shakeups the next few seasons and teams rosters. Let’s hope we’re built to be the next team to step into the elite level for 10 years 

I see 3 moves for Wr

 

#1 via trade Marvin Jones for a 3 or a 4 .

 

#2 Free Agency  . Maybe a Chris Conley or Kevin White type low salary guys with potential if givin more reps. 

 

#3 Via Draft i expect a move up to late first rd for DK Metcalf or they just wait till our pk in the 2nd rd . There will be a plethora of guys available at that pt.

[DCbillsfan]

It's a small sample so far with Beane but he tends to trade players for picks.  Benjamin being the exception.  This was done to rid of players who didn't fit one way or another and to get a qb.  

 

The other tendency he has is trading picks to move up in the draft to get a specific player.  (Josh Allen, Edmunds, Taron Johnson.)

 

I believe he will make several moves in free agency but most of them wont excite the average fan.  Maybe one or two big signings.  He comes across as a guy who tries to make solid but not flashy moves.  

[formerlyofCtown]

43 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Doubtful.  The picks will be used to fortify the roster as will the available cap space to sign UFAs.  There may be a trade or two, but that won't be the focus of the offseason. 

Thenice thing about this FO is that they will try to fill needs outside of the draft so they can go BPA.  They are also willing to move around if a draft pick needs tobe used for need in order to make the value line up.  They dont seem to over pay in the draft though as the trades have cost less than I thought they would on both occasions in the first round of the last draft.

[hemma]

If the OP is correct, then the rest of the AFC East should prepare to die.

[Cmdjr85]

Its all for nothing becausee as long as brady and belichick are in NE nobody is taking the divison