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What I don't understand is how did D.K.Metcalf become Bill's RD1 mock draft guy?


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On 12/27/2018 at 3:35 PM, TucsonBillsFan said:

Don't get me wrong I like him as a clear RD2 wr and that's what he was projected to go in the second round so why is every mock draft I see the bills picking DK I mean clearly there is a lot more better options in my opinion. He is the fifth best wide receiver in this year's draft

 

But in every latest mock draft the past few weeks the bills are all over him the experts think anyway let me know your thoughts

 

I personally think the Bills should trade down to like pick 13 pick up a extra second and possibly a 5th and draft ol first..little should fall at 13th and with the 2 second round get a wr and a cb.

 

Let me know your thoughts guys

Doesnt matter where a guy is projected by you or some yahoo... I would take him at 9 b.c he wont be there in the second.

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Metcalf definitely has the upside. His size/speed combo is pretty impressive. He’s not an AJ Green/ Julio Jones prospect, and likely won’t be that type of NFL player. If he had played the entire season the way he was early on, he might be closer to that level of prospect though. Combine will be huge for him. 

 

A I like a lot about him are his bloodlines. Father, uncle, and grandfather all played in the NFL. That’s impressive. Him being around the pro football game gives him an edge over many others in my opinion. 

 

 

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On 1/26/2019 at 11:56 AM, LSHMEAB said:

Yes. But it also affects yardage totals, which should have been less. And the "defense was on the field too much" excuse doesn't work either. We were middle of the pack in terms of T.O.P. RZ defense; not good. This is why we need to be strongly considering an edge rusher at 9. You need a big time playmaker in the RZ.

 

The defense is good. If they want to be one of the premier units, they've got to improve the pass rush.

 

I wouldn't take a chance on any of these receivers in the first round. There's plenty of depth at the position in this draft.

 

 

 

Hunh? Our D's yardage totals were terrific.

 

2nd in the league in total yards allowed. 2nd in the league in total yards allowed per drive.

 

2nd in the league in defensive DVOA.

 

And no, the offense and STs weaknesses have far less impact on yardage than they do on points. Yardage does a much much better job at isolating the defense from the other units than points does. For example, if Allen throws a pick six, in yards the D's stats are unchanged, but points allowed makes it seem as if the D allowed seven points. Or if the offense fumbles and the opponents get it on the Bills 7 yard line and the Bills rack up three sacks in a row, yardage correctly shows a terrific result to the drive while points allowed shows the defense looking bad by allowing three points on the 48 yard field goal. Yards are much better at separating the units.

 

Yeah, I'd love to add to their pass rush but they had a really really good year. Probably somewhere around 4th to 7th best.

Edited by Thurman#1
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On 12/27/2018 at 4:05 PM, John from Riverside said:

I think because he is a guy you could possibly target in the 2nd round......while taking a guy like Jonah in the 1st.

 

This OL needs a lot of help

He is too talented to last until the 2nd round. 

On 12/29/2018 at 10:41 AM, dickleyjones said:

because mock drafts are dumb. and mock drafts in december are really dumb.

Mock drafts in December are fine.  Haven't almost all but the bowls games been played?  There is a ton of tape on all of these guys. 

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3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Hunh? Our D's yardage totals were terrific.

 

2nd in the league in total yards allowed. 2nd in the league in total yards allowed per drive.

 

2nd in the league in defensive DVOA.

 

And no, the offense and STs weaknesses have far less impact on yardage than they do on points. Yardage does a much much better job at isolating the defense from the other units than points does. For example, if Allen throws a pick six, in yards the D's stats are unchanged, but points allowed makes it seem as if the D allowed seven points. Or if the offense fumbles and the opponents get it on the Bills 7 yard line and the Bills rack up three sacks in a row, yardage correctly shows a terrific result to the drive while points allowed shows the defense looking bad by allowing three points on the 48 yard field goal. Yards are much better at separating the units.

 

Yeah, I'd love to add to their pass rush but they had a really really good year. Probably somewhere around 4th to 7th best.

What I meant was that they yardage totals SHOULD have been great. Not that they should have been great. Of course the yardage totals are gonna be skewed when the other team is constantly getting the ball in good field position. Total yards allowed per drive was independently excellent, but some of that can be attributed to teams calling off the dogs. I saw this defense get whipped in Indy and Baltimore. I saw this defense not come up with key stops against the lowly Dolphins and Jets. Red zone? ATROCIOUS. This can be solved with one elite edge playmaker. Got any other solutions? Hope it was just bad luck and it'll even itself out? I don't believe the offense is going to make the kind of strides necessary to be a top half unit, so if we want to compete next season, we damn well better solidify the strength.

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32 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

The more I watch of the WRs coming out the more confused I get as to why people are calling it a weak class. 

Imo it comes from people having a hardertime determining who the top wrs are in comparison to other available prospects.  D-line is easy.  They jump off the tv on the snap and are on screen the whole length of a run or for half of a passing play.  Wrs are off the screen more often. They are only highlight a handful of time a game.  This class is better than most at wr.  The top wr is better than the 5th d lineman.

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14 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

What I meant was that they yardage totals SHOULD have been great. Not that they should have been great. Of course the yardage totals are gonna be skewed when the other team is constantly getting the ball in good field position. Total yards allowed per drive was independently excellent, but some of that can be attributed to teams calling off the dogs. I saw this defense get whipped in Indy and Baltimore. I saw this defense not come up with key stops against the lowly Dolphins and Jets. Red zone? ATROCIOUS. This can be solved with one elite edge playmaker. Got any other solutions? Hope it was just bad luck and it'll even itself out? I don't believe the offense is going to make the kind of strides necessary to be a top half unit, so if we want to compete next season, we damn well better solidify the strength.

 

 

No. Just the opposite, in fact.

 

Think about it. McCoy fumbles and the opponent recovers on the Bills 10. The chances of having points scored just soared. There's a tremendous chance of them getting three points and a very good chance of them getting seven points. But not when you're talking yards. With a total defensive failure, the most the defense could give up here is 10 yards, which is actually a very good result for one drive.

 

Other teams getting the ball in consistently good field position doesn't help increase yardage totals one bit. It may even - very slightly - decrease yardage totals. If opponent offenses get the ball closer to their end zone, their potential yardage is slightly lowered. If they get the ball on their own one and the defense doesn't stop them they can make 99 yards. If they get the ball on the Bills 1 yard line and the defense fails, they only get one yard with the TD.

 

Good field position for the offense raises the possibility of points and lowers the potential yards available. For the D it's the same. When opponent offenses get good field position the D has a higher chance of allowing points and fewer possible yards to allow.

 

But in terms of yards, one drive's no different from another in terms of impact on the final total. The key figures here are two ... number of drives faced and average field position at drive start.

 

Chicago's defense faced the most defensive drives this season, 183. Buffalo was 2nd, facing 182 drives. This is terrible news for the defensive yardage stats. Buffalo faced the worst field position of any defense, with opponents starting on the average of the 31.36 yard line. But the team that had the best situation had an average of the 25.57. The difference is miniscule, especially when a very large majority of drives don't get near the end zone.

 

So again, yardage totals do a terrific job of isolating the units.  Points don't. And average drive starts are so close together as to give almost no advantage or disadvantage in terms of possible yardage available.

 

And yeah, yeah, the Bills D wasn't good in red zone defense. But they were very good at keeping teams out of the red zone, thus limiting the damage of their bad red zone D. Despite facing more drives than any other team than Chicago and the worst average defensive drive start, despite having a poor offense that gave away a ton of turnovers, meaning more drives starting closer to the red zone, the Bills tied for 11th fewest drives that reached the red zone.

 

1. Chicago 2.5 per game

2. Baltimore 2.6

3. Houston 2.6

4. Denver 2.7

5. Indy 2.7

6. New England 2.9

7. Carolina 2.9

8. Detroit 2.9

9. Tennessee 2.9

10. New Orleans

11. Buffalo 3.0

 

Again, they did a really good job of keeping teams out of the red zone. Not that they shouldn't work on their red zone defense. They should.

 

But overall, the defense was really really good.

 

And again, I'm with you in hoping we get a good pass rusher. It's a major need.

 

 

Edited by Thurman#1
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13 hours ago, CommonCents said:

The more I watch of the WRs coming out the more confused I get as to why people are calling it a weak class. 

That's not what I've read, what I read from some publications is that there really arent the elite level WR's but a bunch of good 2nd+3rd round prospects.

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