dave mcbride Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Have at it. It's a fascinating article. https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/12/19/18148153/nfl-analytics-revolution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Another Fan Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 I suppose but I’m not really a fan of it, even in baseball. The Browns prior management regimes tried to take that Moneyball approach and went 1-31. Yes this year Baker is on the team but there’s more competent football people there hence better results. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jahbonas Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 What many who love analytics wont admit is that football is very different from baseball - baseball with a huge sample size of 162 games and performance less dependent on teammate is a perfect sport to analyze and break down statistically. Football has none of that - its useful when looking at team 4th down trends, 1st down trends etccc but its far less useful when trying to show individual A is better than individual B by looking only at stats 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted December 25, 2018 Author Share Posted December 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Another Fan said: I suppose but I’m not really a fan of it, even in baseball. The Browns prior management regimes tried to take that Moneyball approach and went 1-31. Yes this year Baker is on the team but there’s more competent football people there hence better results. I recommend reading the piece in full. As for baseball, the teams that aren't analytics-driven are the bad ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RalphWilson'sNewWar Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Culture trumps strategy...don’t you know the process? ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted December 25, 2018 Author Share Posted December 25, 2018 (edited) 2 minutes ago, jahbonas said: What many who love analytics wont admit is that football is very different from baseball - baseball with a huge sample size of 162 games and performance less dependent on teammate is a perfect sport to analyze and break down statistically. Football has none of that - its useful when looking at team 4th down trends, 1st down trends etccc but its far less useful when trying to show individual A is better than individual B by looking only at stats That's changing, as the piece indicates. There is of course recognition of the crazy number of variables in any given football play in comparison to other sports. Edited December 25, 2018 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RalphWilson'sNewWar Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, Another Fan said: I suppose but I’m not really a fan of it, even in baseball. The Browns prior management regimes tried to take that Moneyball approach and went 1-31. Yes this year Baker is on the team but there’s more competent football people there hence better results. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/12/25/paul-depodesta-may-play-a-big-role-in-hiring-browns-next-coach/ Sounds like the Analytical Wizard is still thriving in Cleveland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victory Formation Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 6 minutes ago, Another Fan said: I suppose but I’m not really a fan of it, even in baseball. The Browns prior management regimes tried to take that Moneyball approach and went 1-31. Yes this year Baker is on the team but there’s more competent football people there hence better results. This. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted December 25, 2018 Author Share Posted December 25, 2018 12 minutes ago, Another Fan said: I suppose but I’m not really a fan of it, even in baseball. The Browns prior management regimes tried to take that Moneyball approach and went 1-31. Yes this year Baker is on the team but there’s more competent football people there hence better results. Podesta has always been the real moneyball guy in Cleveland. He hasn't lost any juice there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CincyBillsFan Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 The article didn't convince me in the least. Football is a radically different game then Baseball. The emotional component of football alone IMO significantly diminishes any role that analytics can play. And as jabonas noted above, the gross difference in seasonal sample size make Analytics far less valuable a tool in football then baseball. Sure, analytics can narrowly be applied to some situations like when to go for 2 points or not but as for directing a teams talent acquisition and game planning - i'm not seeing it. And I'm not an old fart resistant to change - I fully recognize the effective use of analytics in a number of fields. I just don't think football is one of them. But I do see the attraction. It allows the average sports writer or commentator to pretend they're smarter then the coaches & GM's. I mean who can argue with numbers! It gives fans and sports writers the illusion of control in whether a player will or will not be successful. So I get that with the analytics folks players like Allen are a nightmare. He's like that power failure that wipes out their data set before they save it! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Playoff Bound Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 I think what makes analytics so good for baseball is that you can apply it throughout the minor leagues as well. The spin rate on a pitchers curveball or bat speed for a hitter can be measured at any level of baseball and compared to any level of baseball. That may not work as well in football on a broad scale but there is still value to be had using analytics. As it becomes more main stream the important analytics or useful information will become more apparent. I like it and hope the Bills get on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddo Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Tbh, I read a fair bit of that article the other day. Imho, you can use analytics for individual assessments, reasonably well, combined with knowledge of assignments etc. I don't think you can use it especially well in actual games. While there are certain things within games it can be useful for - the examples of 2 point situations and when to go for it on 4th down, are useful pointers - I simply don't think it can cope with the overall strategy demands, that a game places upon the players and coaches. It might be able to identify weaker aspects of an opponents play, but it isn't going to be able to tell you when to actually attack those aspects. Now that the players are being tracked by GPS, there is increasing amounts of individual data available, and we've already heard about guys having their practises altered, as they are already up at a high level of stress, to try and reduce the chance of injury. There are lots of little ways you can find value in all of this data, but it still isn't going to be able to do anything other than be an additional tool to help. Probably the biggest help it can/will have is in roster building , especially in FA. It can probably also be useful in determining if you are getting 'bang for your buck' from players, or for what to pay certain positions, based off of scheme. Overall, I think the use of analytics, can be very helpful in making the best informed decisions you can, but ultimately, the games still have to be played, and analytics can't do that for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 (edited) 4 hours ago, Another Fan said: I suppose but I’m not really a fan of it, even in baseball. The Browns prior management regimes tried to take that Moneyball approach and went 1-31. Yes this year Baker is on the team but there’s more competent football people there hence better results. Analytics are only useful when they are used correctly. If used incorrectly they can be disastrous. For instance there are those that say you should go for it on every 4th down regardless of field position(Mike School for one). And while statistically they might be correct in that over a long period of time, they will have better odds of winning by doing this, what they fail to realize is they are not making this decision over the course of a long period of time, they are making them in the course of a single play or a single game or a single season, which means they could go 0-8 on 4th down attempts in a game and lose by 50 points and then thr next week go 7 of 8 on 4th downs and win by 50 points. Or anything in between. Over the course of say 20 years, yes this will likely improve their odds of winning games but looking at them individually there can be wildly swinging conversion rates and potentially even the ability to cause thrm to LOSE more games in the short term if they dont convert them. So over the course of many thousands of attempts, it will be beneficial but over the course of a 150-200 or so each year it may NOT be beneficial...kind of like if you flipped a coin 10,000 times you will come close to a 50/50 ratio but for any 100 attempts you look at it can be wildly inconsistent...you could have 70 tails and 30 heads, 70 heads and 30 tails, etc... it also doesn't take into effect your team's ability on offense or the opposing team's ability on defense. Perhaps the distance where you should go for it would change based on these...ie, if you are an average offemsive team playing a good defensive team you should only go for it on 4th and 4 or less while against a bad defensive team you should go for it on anything under 4th and 7, etc...lots of way to crunch these numbers and come up with metrics for each opponent. Edited December 25, 2018 by matter2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hemma Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Thanks for posting. Since they chart every player for every play, makes me wonder if Belichek’s plan this past week included some obscure calc for gross weight within 3 yards of the LOS. There may be more analytics already going into game plans than we suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keepthefaith Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 4 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said: The article didn't convince me in the least. Football is a radically different game then Baseball. The emotional component of football alone IMO significantly diminishes any role that analytics can play. And as jabonas noted above, the gross difference in seasonal sample size make Analytics far less valuable a tool in football then baseball. Sure, analytics can narrowly be applied to some situations like when to go for 2 points or not but as for directing a teams talent acquisition and game planning - i'm not seeing it. And I'm not an old fart resistant to change - I fully recognize the effective use of analytics in a number of fields. I just don't think football is one of them. But I do see the attraction. It allows the average sports writer or commentator to pretend they're smarter then the coaches & GM's. I mean who can argue with numbers! It gives fans and sports writers the illusion of control in whether a player will or will not be successful. So I get that with the analytics folks players like Allen are a nightmare. He's like that power failure that wipes out their data set before they save it! The article points out the challenge in using collected data which is: What data points are useful? It'll take some time for teams and experts to develop productive analytical methods and habits that make a difference, and data then becomes a good tool but not more than that. As someone who has used data collection extensively over the past 10 years in another sport, determining what to measure and how to interpret what is measured and what changes should be made based on this information is a constantly evolving process/challenge. To your point football presents so many things that can be measured (player data, team data, opposition data and all kinds of statistical data) that narrowing down what matters will be a challenge in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuvian Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 I hear OBD has dial up internet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, stuvian said: I hear OBD has dial up internet At times, I think they have a ‘Magic 8 Ball’. As for the dial up internet? That was by design, to discourage former employees from using adult dating sites. Edited December 26, 2018 by Ridgewaycynic2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest K-GunJimKelly12 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 It is clear as far as on the field, in game analytics are concerned, McDerrmott does not get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kemp Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Before the season, analytics said that Star Lotulelei would be terrible. Opinions now? And of course Josh Allen, but I have received enough grief about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T master Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Sure numbers re a good gauge of certain things but if there is no chemistry between players you won't have Squat !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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