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Rating the Rookie QBs - What the Numbers Show


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11 hours ago, zow2 said:

Cmon, I’m as much of a Bills homer than anyone...but Darnold has been a better QB than Allen. I don’t even have to see the stats.  I know he has at least a few 300+ yd games.  Allen’s receivers may not be quite as good, but no one around the league really fears the Jets receivers and Oline.  As of today, Darnold *looks* like he will be a better passing QB than Allen or Rosen.

 

First off at this point Rosen may emerge to be the best passing QB of the three at least with respect to completion percentage and throwing the fewest INT's.

 

Second, the ONLY reason Allen doesn't have a 300 yard game IMO is his TE/WR situation.  It's the worst in the league and that includes Arizona. 

 

And 3rd while I have concerns about Allen if I was a Jet's fan I would have concerns about Darnold, particularly his predilection for throwing INT's.  Watching that clip where his TE made a spectacular one handed catch it was clear that the pass should have been intercepted at the goal line.  I also saw a Bill's DB drop what could have been an easy pick 6 a couple of weeks ago.  I suspect that over the course of time throwing INT's will be an issue with Darnold much like "accuracy" may be an issue with Allen. 

 

The head to head match up a few weeks ago gave me a good look at both QB's and what I saw were nearly identical performances.  Both guys made some great plays and both guys made some bonehead throws.  They both need work but there is every reason to be optimistic that both will be superior QB's in this league.  The other thing that was clear to me in that game was that Darnold has better skill players surrounding him then Allen does.  As I've posted before, the ONLY Bills offensive skill player who IMO could break into the Jet's starting line up is Foster. 

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11 hours ago, Bleedingreennc said:

And Allen has a mere 7 touchdowns... let me guess, it’s because of the drops? We will revisit this next season

In part it's due to the drops - how can you deny it.  We could probably assemble a film clip with what 6 or 7 clear drops of TD passes, probably more.  I think KB has 3 all by himself. 

 

It's also partly to do to Allen not making the right reads and getting the ball to the right guy. 

 

It's in part due to poor offensive line play that doesn't let Allen sit back in the pocket and casually survey the field.

 

It's in part due to the Bills lack of explosive NFL caliber skill players who can catch TD passes in the red zone.  In fact one of the reasons Allen has so many red zone TD runs is that those were the only choices he had to get the ball into the end zone.  Watch the clip from the Detroit game that a fan took which shows the whole end zone on Allen's TD run.  Not a single receiver achieves any separation.  Not a single one. 

 

This is why simply comparing the # of TD passes thrown by these guys can be very misleading. 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, cle23 said:

1. Mayfield 

2. Jackson

3. Darnold

4. Allen

5. Rosen

I don't know what the psychology is behind a fan of another team who goes on other teams' message boards (not even rival teams at that, really) ostensibly just to antagonize that teams' fans. I don't think it's a good look. But giving the benefit of the doubt that your mental development is beyond that of twelve, your qb rankings also oddly seem to coincide with the level of surrounding talent on each team, which is not to detract from Mayfield's success -- he's a nice player -- but let's not pretend he'd be having the same year playing for the Cardinals.

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Different people have different opinions and different rankings. Mayfield of course stands out, and other 4 rookie first round QBs have obvious flaws. Most people agree Allen and Jackson have to improve their passing/accuracy, but Darnold and Rosen also have to improve in certain areas in passing as well, for example:

 

 

 

 

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On 12/24/2018 at 12:46 PM, Success said:

In Kelly’s era, Marino was much more of the stats guy.  Which didn’t really measure intangibles in any significant way.

 

Stats aren’t useless, but they don’t get you to Super Bowls. 

True. And Marino was also the better QB.

 

Kelly was great, but his teams were also much better.

 

 

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4 hours ago, row_33 said:

Nice to have a decent crop of rookie QBs this year 

I could be in the minority but I think this class is completely overrated. Besides Mayfield, I won’t confidently bet on any of them becoming franchise guys at this point. Hope I’m wrong.

 

but it just goes to show what the “experts” know.  The 2017 qb draft was a bad one and it is far superior to this group.

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The only comment I will add is that when your franchise QB takes off running from a broken pocket,

there is a tendency for the fans to get a sick feeling in the pit of their stomach, worrying that he might

take a nasty hit and bruise his elbow, or something worse.

 

When Tyrod used to leave the pocket, I would start to scream, and scream and scream until the play was over.

Tyrod never seemed to move forward in a straight line. He looked like a pin ball.

 

At least when Allen takes off he's usually making forward progress, at some point in the play.

For some reason, I don't get as worried when Allen is running..............Tyrod used to scare the heck out of me.

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Just saw a stat on Allen..... of the 2,092 yds over the last 6 games since he came back, he accounted for 1,718. 

 

That’s a mere 62 yds a game from anyone not named Allen. 

 

The dude came back from his injury, had next to nothing to work with, went 3-3 and was quite literally a one man offense..... all as a rookie. 

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On 12/24/2018 at 12:59 PM, Boatdrinks said:

From what I’ve seen, Mayfield looks the best of the rookie QBs. Then Darnold, then I’d still put Jackson and Allen as too close to call. Jackson’s supporting cast and coaching just is so much better than Allen’s that I can’t definitively say Allen couldn’t do the same or better. Rosen gets an incomplete because the Cards are just a wreck. That’s just my own “ eye test” analysis with zero regard for stats. 

Jackson is running a gimmick offense..basically Tim Tebow. Dude has thrown for over 200 yards once in 7 starts. And that was 204 yards...

 

So basically he runs the ball a lot, hands it off a lot and throws only when needed.

 

What's impressive with that?

Edited by matter2003
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