The Frankish Reich Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Passer Rating - note that median for qualifiers this year is 95.8 - Trubisky/Brady (!) Baker Mayfield 95.1 Lamar Jackson 84.9 Sam Darnold 77.8 Josh Rosen 66.0 Josh Allen 63.7 ESPN's Total QBR - median is 61.2 - Cousins/Mullens (!!) Mayfield 56.2 Jackson 47.8 Darnold 47.0 Allen 46.1 Rosen 29.1 (ouch!) ANY/A (see Pro Football Reference for Definition) - median is 6.64 - Cousins/Trubisky Mayfield 6.74 (interesting - already roughly average as an NFL starter) Jackson 5.93 Darnold 5.32 Allen 4.02 (ouch) Rosen 3.56 (double ouch) Comparison: Nick Mullens, undrafted FA last year, 3rd stringer forced into action for 49ers - Passer Rating: 91.2 Total QBR: 59.4 ANY/A: 6.95 Conclusions? Other than Mayfield, the rookie QBs have been varying degrees of bad or at least "not good" Allen and Jackson derive a lot of their value from running. But only one is working in an offense right now that is built around having a running QB, and it shows in the results. Nick Mullens is sort of a rookie, and so far this undrafted FA has been better than the highly regarded 2018 draft class. Will that last? Probably not. But it's a good comparison because, again, it shows how low we've set the bar for a "successful" rookie year for this year's class. Another interesting comparison: Lamar Jackson's stats are roughly equal to Flacco's. This is my kind of seat-of-the-pants "no drop-off in performance from an established veteran" metric. Mullens? Not as good as Garoppolo's stint last year, but way, way better than C.J. Beathard. Allen? Miles better than the horror show that was Peterman/Anderson (but consider the quirk of Barkley's fantastic one-game sample ...). Darnold? Way better than McCown. Mayfield/Rosen - too small a sample to say anything, except that maybe Tyrod and Bradford just plain suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 What’s the adjusted rate for all of those stats though? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted December 24, 2018 Author Share Posted December 24, 2018 Just now, C.Biscuit97 said: What’s the adjusted rate for all of those stats though? ? You mean the adjustment for "had to play with Kelvin Benjamin and Charles Clay as his highest paid receivers?" 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanC883 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 I'd say Allen is having the 2nd best season (behind Mayfield). And I did not want him before the draft. Pleasantly surprised with his decision making improvement during the season. Allen has the worst supporting cast of any of these guys. Rosen has a freaking HOF WR and great RB who should be in his prime. Jackson has a fantastic D that makes plays, and a good stable of RB's and a decent WR cast, and two good TE's. Allen has no TE or RB help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 (edited) From what I’ve seen, Mayfield looks the best of the rookie QBs. Then Darnold, then I’d still put Jackson and Allen as too close to call. Jackson’s supporting cast and coaching just is so much better than Allen’s that I can’t definitively say Allen couldn’t do the same or better. Rosen gets an incomplete because the Cards are just a wreck. That’s just my own “ eye test” analysis with zero regard for stats. Edited December 24, 2018 by Boatdrinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted December 24, 2018 Author Share Posted December 24, 2018 1 minute ago, RyanC883 said: I'd say Allen is having the 2nd best season (behind Mayfield). And I did not want him before the draft. Pleasantly surprised with his decision making improvement during the season. Allen has the worst supporting cast of any of these guys. Rosen has a freaking HOF WR and great RB who should be in his prime. Jackson has a fantastic D that makes plays, and a good stable of RB's and a decent WR cast, and two good TE's. Allen has no TE or RB help. Mayfield [big, big dropoff here ... not to scale!] Jackson* [smaller, but clear dropoff ...] Darnold [smaller but still significant dropoff ...] Allen [significant dropoff ...] Rosen *Jackson gets an asterisk because Harbaugh (smartly) changed the offense to take advantage of his strengths/hide his liabilities. Allen (except when going off script and running around and making big plays on his own) has not had this advantage. Maybe that's better for his long-term success (and health), but it means poorer results in the short run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 I'm not saying whatsoever that I think Josh is going to be a great NFL QB... I am saying if you think you're going to be able to figure it out in his Rookie year on this joke of an Offensive Roster you're kidding yourself... There is absolutely no telling because A) He's a Rookie...B) They are absolutely terrible in blocking for the running game...Just awful...And C) He was going to be a developmental-type anyway... I don't think Josh will ever be a 65% plus passer...I see plenty of things he does right now to be cautious about any long-term optimism...But I do think there is a developmental path for him to be just fine...Even very good if all the pieces fall into place...He's got to grow a ton...But the situation they shoved him into this year is about as bad as you can imagine for a Rookie QB...And that considered, at times, he's looked OK...So we'll see next year when they get him help...And they better get him A LOT of help...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 What are their respective O-line rankings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted December 24, 2018 Author Share Posted December 24, 2018 23 minutes ago, KOKBILLS said: I'm not saying whatsoever that I think Josh is going to be a great NFL QB... I am saying if you think you're going to be able to figure it out in his Rookie year on this joke of an Offensive Roster you're kidding yourself... There is absolutely no telling because A) He's a Rookie...B) They are absolutely terrible in blocking for the running game...Just awful...And C) He was going to be a developmental-type anyway... I don't think Josh will ever be a 65% plus passer...I see plenty of things he does right now to be cautious about any long-term optimism...But I do think there is a developmental path for him to be just fine...Even very good if all the pieces fall into place...He's got to grow a ton...But the situation they shoved him into this year is about as bad as you can imagine for a Rookie QB...And that considered, at times, he's looked OK...So we'll see next year when they get him help...And they better get him A LOT of help...? Not just the O Line ... I also give Allen a (partial) pass based on the fact that his WR corps, with the exception of the at-best adequate Zay Jones, has had a 100% roster turnover during the course of the season. The new receivers aren't going to be able to learn/execute complex route trees in the amount of time they've had to work together and with Allen, and of course Allen can't be expected then to be able to execute a possession-based short passing game. Hence, the stress on long passes of the playground variety fly routes, and the result that Allen's passing game works best when he's improvising and taking advantage of pure athletic talent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zow2 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 There’s typically a pretty big leap in performance from Freshman to sophomore year. I’d like to see stats of that. Maybe im a homer but I think Allen is poised for the biggest leap. His play and mental game will improve as will the supporting cast around him. Darnold worries me because I think he will also make a nice leap and be a very solid QB for NY. Mayfield and Jackson are interesting because I think both are playing very good ball and I’m not sure how much better they’ll get?? What’s their ceiling? They’re already playing like they’ve been around a while, especially Baker. Rosen I have no clue about. I can’t figure him out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said: You mean the adjustment for "had to play with Kelvin Benjamin and Charles Clay as his highest paid receivers?" The adjusted rate for yesterday being the only time this season an opponent bothered to watch the tape for Allen. they all will next year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 I don't see Rosen or Jackson as long term starting qbs. Rosen will get hurt ala Bradford and Lamar will be forced to be a pocket guy and he will struggle. I see Allen and Darnold having more longevity with better weapons. And Mayfield will be the best of the 5 as long as his attitude doesn't get in the way. They'll all be chasing Mahomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 1 minute ago, LABILLBACKER said: I don't see Rosen or Jackson as long term starting qbs. Rosen will get hurt ala Bradford and Lamar will be forced to be a pocket guy and he will struggle. I see Allen and Darnold having more longevity with better weapons. And Mayfield will be the best of the 5 as long as his attitude doesn't get in the way. They'll all be chasing Mahomes. 1) Allen missed mote games to injury than Rosen 2) Jackson has better passing stats than Allen across the board 54 minutes ago, TPS said: What are their respective O-line rankings? It’s PFF so take it for what it’s worth. But they rank us 23. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSHMEAB Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Lamar Jackson is a far better passer than I expected. Josh Rosen is far worse at everything than I could have imagined. Allen and Darnold are pretty much as advertised. MAYFIELD is far better than most could have expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Never confuse "hasn't started a game in the NFL" with "rookie". Having a full NFL offseason without having to adjust from college to NFL life is an enormous difference from having been in season-mode for 17 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quinnearlysghost88 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 1 hour ago, TPS said: What are their respective O-line rankings? https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-2018-nfl-offensive-line-rankings-all-32-teams-units-after-week-15 Cleveland has the 2nd best oline in the NFL. We were 24th last week, but that could drop to mid- to high-20s. Should note that NYJ and AZ are below us. Considerations for Darnold and Rosen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 43 minutes ago, row_33 said: The adjusted rate for yesterday being the only time this season an opponent bothered to watch the tape for Allen. they all will next year.... Why on earth would you make such an outlandish claim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Just now, thebandit27 said: Why on earth would you make such an outlandish claim? Ball washing Belichick and the Patriots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zonabb Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 I'd bet anyone $1,000 right now that Allen's 2019 completion percentage doesn't exceed 59.9%, falls short of 20 TDs, and throws at least 14 INTs. The homers around here want to still blame the line and skill position talent and I'll agree with that but that doesn't account for the entire issue with Allen. He is still wildly inaccurate with bad mechanics. None of that has been improved. So you can still argue that it's not his fault by blaming everything but him but if you watch with your eyes instead of your heart, you'll see a kid who hasn't improved his physical or mental game. And next year, what will the excuse be when the talent will be, without question better (how can it be worse) after FA and the draft and he continue to throw off his back foot, be laughably inaccurate, and makes many mental mistakes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 47 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: 2) Jackson has better passing stats than Allen across the board It’s PFF so take it for what it’s worth. But they rank us 23. You sure you did not accidentally flip flop the 2 and the 3...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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