What's a common thread among recent Allen analyses?

[eball]

Sorry for starting another "Allen progress" thread but I think a lot gets lost in the individual threads that turn back into draft debates.  I've been reading the various film reviews of Allen's play after every game from The Athletic -- Joe Licata does one each week w/ Matt Fairburn, and then Cover1 does his as well.  I also look at Joe B's write-ups.  It has been fascinating to read the articles and see how things have progressed.  This week a common thread emerged -- Allen is progressing at a pretty rapid rate, even from game to game.  I think we heard this from McD as well this week -- he said Josh is a different QB from just three weeks ago in Miami (when he was the best player on the field).

 

The "stat sheet" fans and critics who get caught up in completion percentages, yardage totals, and passer ratings at this point in Allen's career aren't really giving themselves a chance to see what is happening.  I look back to the guy who played vs. the Chargers in W2 or Packers in W4, and I see a completely different QB now.  Even in the Minnesota game, Allen primarily made plays with his legs and the defense put the Bills up big early with turnovers.

 

Against Detroit Allen stood in the pocket, made his reads, and delivered darts.  He threw short passes, touch passes, and long passes.  Yes, I know they only scored 14 points but Allen -- at least to me -- looked like a composed, competent NFL QB.  This week Bill Belichick is doing his typical thing, talking up the opponent -- but I think he legitimately believes it.  For the last several years it was easy for the Pats*** -- you keep Tyrod in the pocket and make him beat you as a passer.  He couldn't do it.  Now the Bills appear to have a guy who can and BB knows it.

 

I believe the Bills have a real shot this week.  Their defense played Brady* well in the first meeting, and their offense looks nothing like that train wreck.  I only hope ST doesn't screw it up.

[ProcessTruster]

Could be the week.   Although not having Taron Johnson and Matt Milano will hurt quite a bit against the short passing game of the Pats.   I can see Brady carving them up with 5-10 yard passes.   No RBs will hurt as well.   Not sure they can win this one on Allen shoulders alone.   But they will compete.  Trust the Process.   McBeanes know what they want to do to build a contending roster and are about halfway through doing it, in my estimation. 

Edited December 20, 2018 by ProcessTruster

[Billsfan1972]

And the 14 points were aided in large part by two big PI's (43 & 23 yards).  

 

I really like Allen and defend him, but these receivers, the lack or separation, coupled with the terrible play calling and playing for 17-14 games doesn't help the development of the O.  Forecast Sunday is perfect to work on Allen and the offense.  

 

Would be nice to see 28 points and playing for 4 quarters.

[billsredneck1]

the thing that worries me is that if shady plays (and he's gonna), that they feel obligated to feed him the ball....which means a lot of short gains on 1st and 2nd downs,

followed by 3rd and long blitzes.  ugggh......which also means allen running way too much.  it would be a nightmare for him to get hurt now. 

 

edit: i love shady but it seems like when he is in the offense is predictable, ineffective, unimaginative and boring.  expect to see a ton of 3 and outs

and josh running for his life and playing hero ball.   i hope i'm wrong.

Edited December 20, 2018 by billsredneck1

[papazoid]

I think his rapid progress has and will be between his ears.....as he learns to read coverages, protect the ball and reduce his alarming turnover rate.

 

his rocket arm and incredible legs will take him far......his accuracy is what will hold him back.

 

I view him as a solid starter (in the 10-20 rated area). can't see him reaching "franchise" level (Top 10).

 

I would  use high draft capital (1st or 2nd round) on another QB. injury is all to common for QB's in this league, especially one who runs as much as josh.

[PrimeTime101]

5 minutes ago, papazoid said:

I think his rapid progress has and will be between his ears.....as he learns to read coverages, protect the ball and reduce his alarming turnover rate.

 

his rocket arm and incredible legs will take him far......his accuracy is what will hold him back.

 

I view him as a solid starter (in the 10-20 rated area). can't see him reaching "franchise" level (Top 10).

 

I would  use high draft capital (1st or 2nd round) on another QB. injury is all to common for QB's in this league, especially one who runs as much as josh.

so let me get this straight, you have to be a top 10 QB to be a franchise QB? and are you evaluating his numbers compared to others in total yards or just yards in the air?

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

32 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

the thing that worries me is that if shady plays (and he's gonna), that they feel obligated to feed him the ball....which means a lot of short gains on 1st and 2nd downs,

followed by 3rd and long blitzes.  ugggh......which also means allen running way too much.  it would be a nightmare for him to get hurt now. 

 

edit: i love shady but it seems like when he is in the offense is predictable, ineffective, unimaginative and boring.  expect to see a ton of 3 and outs

and josh running for his life and playing hero ball.   i hope i'm wrong.

the  obligation I see is to feed the ball to a RB if its a run play or a screen or check down to the #1 RB.

 

it's not like Shady is in  reach a milestone.  otherwise I might fully agree. 

[H2o]

It's going to be interesting to see what BB wants to take away. More than likely it will be a scheme that limits JA's scrambling. Almost certainly someone will be spying Allen. But who will it be, a Safety or a LB? That will determine what level of the field has space. Can Allen read this and hit the open man? I think this game, because of how BB schemes, will tell us the most about how far JA has progressed imo. 

[mjt328]

One of the things I notice about Josh Allen's development (especially compared to other rookie QBs) is the lack of check-down and short passes in our offense.  The vast majority of his throws are 10-15+ yards downfield.  This is a significant factor in his "accuracy and completion percentage problems" which Allen's detractors are not considering.

 

Part of this may be due to Allen having a "gunslinger mentality" and always going for the big play.  But I also notice that because of the offensive line problems, our RBs and TEs are often forced to stay and provide extra blocking help.  Which means they can't slip out for a quick check-down.  Leaving most of Allen's options on farther downfield routes.

 

When you factor in the ridiculously poor blocking, the lack of easy throws available, the multitude of dropped passes by his receivers and the huge learning curve in going from Wyoming to the NFL - an observer can't help but realize the trial-by-fire that Allen has been dropped into.  It's hard to imagine him playing in a tougher situation at any point in the future. 

 

[NoSaint]

4 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

One of the things I notice about Josh Allen's development (especially compared to other rookie QBs) is the lack of check-down and short passes in our offense.  The vast majority of his throws are 10-15+ yards downfield.  This is a significant factor in his "accuracy and completion percentage problems" which Allen's detractors are not considering.

 

Part of this may be due to Allen having a "gunslinger mentality" and always going for the big play.  But I also notice that because of the offensive line problems, our RBs and TEs are often forced to stay and provide extra blocking help.  Which means they can't slip out for a quick check-down.  Leaving most of Allen's options on farther downfield routes.

 

When you factor in the ridiculously poor blocking, the lack of easy throws available, the multitude of dropped passes by his receivers and the huge learning curve in going from Wyoming to the NFL - an observer can't help but realize the trial-by-fire that Allen has been dropped into.  It's hard to imagine him playing in a tougher situation at any point in the future. 

 

 

On some level we simply don’t have the skill to churn out 15 play drives for points and need to get chunk yardage to score. Part of that is the rest of the team but I suspect part of that is Josh not being the accurate touch and timing short game passer (yet?)

[Figster]

1 hour ago, papazoid said:

I think his rapid progress has and will be between his ears.....as he learns to read coverages, protect the ball and reduce his alarming turnover rate.

 

his rocket arm and incredible legs will take him far......his accuracy is what will hold him back.

 

I view him as a solid starter (in the 10-20 rated area). can't see him reaching "franchise" level (Top 10).

 

I would  use high draft capital (1st or 2nd round) on another QB. injury is all to common for QB's in this league, especially one who runs as much as josh.

Myself personally, Allens pocket awareness and throwing mechanics have continued to improve in my humble opinion.  It would not surprise me to see Josh Allens accuracy problems become a thing of the past as Buffalo upgrades the supporting cast around him.

 

The sky really is the limit with this kid IMO.

[mjt328]

2 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

On some level we simply don’t have the skill to churn out 15 play drives for points and need to get chunk yardage to score. Part of that is the rest of the team but I suspect part of that is Josh not being the accurate touch and timing short game passer (yet?)

 

I'm not really talking about short "timing" throws like slants, screens, curls and picks. 

I'm talking more about the easy check-downs, like a dump-off to the running back when the initial downfield reads are covered.

 

You know... the Trent Edwards/EJ Manual type throws don't require a ton of skill or accuracy.

 

Those are the types of passes that guys like Sam Darnold are living off right now.  Watch a Jets game, and check-down throws are easily accounting for at least 75-80% of his completions.  But watch a Bills game, and you aren't seeing the check-downs from Allen at all.  His only short throws are designed screens and quick-hitters behind the line of scrimmage (usually to McKenzie).

 

[Charles Romes]

Allen has been carrying the receivers, the Oline and Dabol IMO.  

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, eball said:

 Now the Bills appear to have a guy who can and BB knows it.

 

I believe the Bills have a real shot this week.  Their defense played Brady* well in the first meeting, and their offense looks nothing like that train wreck.

 

 

Yeah, good luck with all of that.

 

Yes, he's progressing. And that's great.

 

But the team he's beaten from the pocket scored 13 points due to missing a field goal and an extra point.

 

With luck in a year or two all of this excitement will be warranted.

 

 

[BillyWhiteShows]

18 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, good luck with all of that.

 

Yes, he's progressing. And that's great.

 

But the team he's beaten from the pocket scored 13 points due to missing a field goal and an extra point.

 

With luck in a year or two all of this excitement will be warranted.

 

 

 

You can put qualifiers on any victory in the NFL these days.  That’s like saying New England only scored 10 points bs Pittsburgh because Brady was injured

[One Buffalo]

 

[eball]

2 hours ago, papazoid said:

I think his rapid progress has and will be between his ears.....as he learns to read coverages, protect the ball and reduce his alarming turnover rate.

 

his rocket arm and incredible legs will take him far......his accuracy is what will hold him back.

 

I view him as a solid starter (in the 10-20 rated area). can't see him reaching "franchise" level (Top 10).

 

I would  use high draft capital (1st or 2nd round) on another QB. injury is all to common for QB's in this league, especially one who runs as much as josh.

 

Did you think Josh was inaccurate last week?  Did you see him take a lot of hits?  I guess I don't understand your prediction -- we truly don't know what the future holds, but based upon what appears to be rapid progression I find it somewhat illogical to have a pessimistic viewpoint about Allen's ceiling.  I'll pretty much guarantee the Bills won't be taking a QB in the 1st or 2nd round next year.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

It's going to be interesting to see what BB wants to take away. More than likely it will be a scheme that limits JA's scrambling. Almost certainly someone will be spying Allen. But who will it be, a Safety or a LB? That will determine what level of the field has space. Can Allen read this and hit the open man? I think this game, because of how BB schemes, will tell us the most about how far JA has progressed imo. 

They'll do exactly what Patricia did. Spy plus pinch the middle. If he has a clean pocket and some of our worthless wr's can get any separation,  than he should have a decent day. And as the OP said I'm very happy with Josh's progress this season. 

[Gugny]

2 hours ago, papazoid said:

I think his rapid progress has and will be between his ears.....as he learns to read coverages, protect the ball and reduce his alarming turnover rate.

 

his rocket arm and incredible legs will take him far......his accuracy is what will hold him back.

 

I view him as a solid starter (in the 10-20 rated area). can't see him reaching "franchise" level (Top 10).

 

I would  use high draft capital (1st or 2nd round) on another QB. injury is all to common for QB's in this league, especially one who runs as much as josh.

 

I think the accuracy "issues," are becoming a lazy narrative (not by you - by the media).  Anyone who's watched all of Allen's starts can't possibly say that his accuracy hasn't improved weekly.

 

I agree that accuracy was a legitimate concern at draft time and early in the season.

 

However, as the season has progressed, what I'm learning is that many of the "bad passes," have not been bad passes at all.  Sure - he's thrown some.  All QBs do.  But I don't consider it worrisome or problematic at this point.

 

He needs better receivers.  He's making the necessary improvements and no one else on the offense seems to be doing the same with any consistency.

[PaattMaann]

9 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

I think the accuracy "issues," are becoming a lazy narrative (not by you - by the media).  Anyone who's watched all of Allen's starts can't possibly say that his accuracy hasn't improved weekly.

 

I agree that accuracy was a legitimate concern at draft time and early in the season.

 

However, as the season has progressed, what I'm learning is that many of the "bad passes," have not been bad passes at all.  Sure - he's thrown some.  All QBs do.  But I don't consider it worrisome or problematic at this point.

 

He needs better receivers.  He's making the necessary improvements and no one else on the offense seems to be doing the same with any consistency.

 

100 percent Gug

 

Baffles me anyone can actually watch Josh play and think he is plagued by these accuracy issues lol...9 starts in, from a rookie who everyone saw as a huge project, and he is already carrying a worthless offense to victorys...crazy