Jump to content

Cap Management and Filling Needs


jwhit34

Recommended Posts

5 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

Per Spotrac, the Bills projected cap situation in '19:

 

Committed Salaries (39 players)            $104.3 million

Dead Money                                                      3.0 million

Total Cap Used                                             107.3 million

 

Projected Cap including rollover              $196.0 million

 

If the Bills release McCoy, Clay and Ducasse, this is how it would change:

 

Committed Salaries (36 players)            $ 84.3 million

Dead Money                                                   10.0 million

Total Cap Used                                           $ 94.3 million

 

Cap space to spend                                   $101.7 million

 

They have 10 draft picks and using 2018 as a guide and building in about 10% inflation they will need about $10 million reserved to sign them. If you figure the 5 picks in rounds 1-4 will count against the cap (top 50 salaries count through training camp) and estimating that those salaries will be about $7.5 million, that gives the team 41 of the 53 players, about $102 of the cap used leaving $94 million to spend to fill the 12 roster spots. 

 

What might that look like? They have a lot of flexibility, here's one scenario:

  • 3 offensive linemen for an average cap hit of $9 million - $27 million spent (thinking 2 @ $11M & 1 @ $5M)
  • 2 WRs for an average of $9 million - $18 million spent (1 at $12-13M & 1 @ $5-6M)
  • 1 TE for $7 million 
  • 1 backup QB for $3 million
  • 1 defensive player at $6 million 
  • 4 depth players for an average of $1.5 million - $6 million spent

 

That's $67 million spent leaving $27 million in cap space. In the draft, add 1-2 WRs, at least 1 OL, 1 RB, 2 defensive players, rest best player available. 

 

What this illustrates is that they can go after some big name free agents if they want and leave themselves in an enviable position at the draft to truly go with the best player available and/or be able to trade down and amass more picks for now or the future. 

 

If they want K. Williams and Alexander back, they have plenty of room to do that, they made a combined $8 million this year, they would probably cost a little less in '19 since they're a year older, plus they would be 1 year deals so it wouldn't impact roster/cap management beyond 2019. 

 

We are probably looking at about 20 new players on the team for 2019 which would be remarkable given the roster churn already in the first 2 years of McDermott/Beane. 

 

 

That is going to be the excuse thrown around next year if/when we don't impress.

 

"So many new players; need to develop chemistry, blah blah."

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

My guess is they will target some O linemen we haven't heard all that much about, sort of like Hyde and Poyer when they got them.  Same with WRs or TEs. Draft I expect a pass rushing DE or OLB in round 1 as that is where the real talent lies in the draft, then focus on the lines and WRs and a CB and RB somewhere I there. 

 

Beane is not the type to spend wildly, and he also has to know they need to spend resources on the offensive side of the ball to protect their young QB.

oldmanfan is spot on as always

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

It’s not likely that the Bills will let Shady go. I also think they will be cautious about putting themselves in cap jail with a splashy high dollar free agent(s).  The league is full of high priced FA’s who have not played up to the money. 

 

I would not be shocked if they underspend what they have available. 

 

 

They could be splashy several times over and still underspend what they have available 

 

 

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, dezertbill said:

The Bills will sign Tyrell Williams.

 

Chargers already have Keenan Allen and Mike Williams (if they pick up his 5th year option) until 2021.  Travis Benjamin is signed through next year.  No way they pay this guy what he's worth.

 

26 years old.  He is 6'4 and can win jump balls (what we thought we were getting with Benjamin).  He is a hands catcher and can take it out of the defenders grasp.  Can stretch the field and go deep (caught a number of long ball TDs).  Has great speed to get past defenders and gain valuable YAC.  His 63.3 catch % is tops among FA WR's. 

 

He's on the books for $2.9 this year. 

 

He will be in a Bills uniform next year.  

I hope so. I always wonder whether guys will be willing to come to Buffalo(Sorry, it's not considered the world's greatest destination for FA's).

 

It helps that he chose to play college ball at Oregon State if that makes any sense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

They will need to be selective and aggressive in free agency.

Agreed. Find a C or G aged 27 or 28 that will be a starter, re-sign Barkley, and sign a couple of depth corners and DE.  That is all they need in FA.

Then draft an OLB in round 1, followed by 5 offensive players for the line, WR, and TE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Epstein's Mother said:

The Bills have so much cap room for next year that I don't believe they will be able to spend it all.  I think it will take through 2020 to get near the cap.  There will only be so many free agents available next year and other teams have needs as well.

I think they should use that $$$$ to front load contracts instead of rolling it over. Example.... 

Give the top center 17M year one instead of the average. That way the player is able to be cut if needed without high dead money. And if they play good your getting a good player at a premium the rest of the contract

Edited by Franchiseneedsme
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

I'd cut clay.  Shady isn't irreplaceable at this point in his career, but on an offense completely without playmakers it doesn't make sense to cut the only player resembling a playmaker.  I'm all for upgrading the position, but we don't need the cap space and his salary isn't guaranteed.  Why not figure out if you've upgraded it before you decide to cut someone.  

It will be a challenge to replace Clay's blocking and the cap savings isn't that much. Not much upside to cutting him w en if he isn't that good.

I've been on record that the cut Shady crowd is nuts.  Mostly evidenced by the fact the same crowd realizes that collectively the line is garbage including a mediocre Dawkins and raw Teller. 

I'd keep them both and spend on veteran starter on OL and veteran depth at DE and CB.

Then draft youth at BPA among the following - pass rushing OLB, WR, TE, and O-line.

11 minutes ago, Franchiseneedsme said:

I think they should use that $$$$ to front load contracts instead of rolling it over. Example.... 

Give the top center 17M year one instead of the average. That way the player is able to be cut if needed without high dead money. And if they play, good your getting a good player at a premium the rest of the contract

Lol. The top center will command a high end signing bonus for the exact reason you stated. They want the money up front because they can be cut. The top C will probably get 50% of the entire worth of the contract in signing bonus.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

Per Spotrac, the Bills projected cap situation in '19:

 

Committed Salaries (39 players)            $104.3 million

Dead Money                                                      3.0 million

Total Cap Used                                             107.3 million

 

Projected Cap including rollover              $196.0 million

 

If the Bills release McCoy, Clay and Ducasse, this is how it would change:

 

Committed Salaries (36 players)            $ 84.3 million

Dead Money                                                   10.0 million

Total Cap Used                                           $ 94.3 million

 

Cap space to spend                                   $101.7 million

 

They have 10 draft picks and using 2018 as a guide and building in about 10% inflation they will need about $10 million reserved to sign them. If you figure the 5 picks in rounds 1-4 will count against the cap (top 50 salaries count through training camp) and estimating that those salaries will be about $7.5 million, that gives the team 41 of the 53 players, about $102 of the cap used leaving $94 million to spend to fill the 12 roster spots. 

 

What might that look like? They have a lot of flexibility, here's one scenario:

  • 3 offensive linemen for an average cap hit of $9 million - $27 million spent (thinking 2 @ $11M & 1 @ $5M)
  • 2 WRs for an average of $9 million - $18 million spent (1 at $12-13M & 1 @ $5-6M)
  • 1 TE for $7 million 
  • 1 backup QB for $3 million
  • 1 defensive player at $6 million 
  • 4 depth players for an average of $1.5 million - $6 million spent

 

That's $67 million spent leaving $27 million in cap space. In the draft, add 1-2 WRs, at least 1 OL, 1 RB, 2 defensive players, rest best player available. 

 

What this illustrates is that they can go after some big name free agents if they want and leave themselves in an enviable position at the draft to truly go with the best player available and/or be able to trade down and amass more picks for now or the future. 

 

If they want K. Williams and Alexander back, they have plenty of room to do that, they made a combined $8 million this year, they would probably cost a little less in '19 since they're a year older, plus they would be 1 year deals so it wouldn't impact roster/cap management beyond 2019. 

 

We are probably looking at about 20 new players on the team for 2019 which would be remarkable given the roster churn already in the first 2 years of McDermott/Beane. 

 

 


While I don't agree with everything, I do appreciate a well-thought out, intelligent post.   Nice job, jwhit.  


It's going to be a very interesting free agency and we'll learn a lot about Beane.  I suspect he'll go after value signings rather than overpay for stars - we'll know for sure in a few months.  

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

My guess is they will target some O linemen we haven't heard all that much about, sort of like Hyde and Poyer when they got them.  Same with WRs or TEs. Draft I expect a pass rushing DE or OLB in round 1 as that is where the real talent lies in the draft, then focus on the lines and WRs and a CB and RB somewhere I there. 

 

Beane is not the type to spend wildly, and he also has to know they need to spend resources on the offensive side of the ball to protect their young QB.

 

Seems like a lazy take.

 

Beane didn't sign Hyde and Poyer.  

 

He paid above market(spending wildly?) to get big name vets Star Lotulelei and Vontae Davis.........and Trent Murphy was hardly a no-name either.    Bodine was also an underwhelming starter his entire career as well.

 

None of them were "under-the-radar".    Underwhelming at the time and on the field this season......but not under-radar.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, NoSaint said:

 

They could be splashy several times over and still underspend what they have available 

 

 

 

 

It's clear that a lot of fans don't realize that this team was in very good cap situation long term even before Beane arrived.

 

With Manuel busting and using 2 first rounders on Watkins they didn't have much coming up on the ledger.....even before they traded Watkins and Darby.

 

Now they are so flush with room they will have difficulty spending it efficiently in the next 3 seasons.

 

The Jaguars are probably going to find they have a sellers market when looking for someone to eat the guaranteed portion of Blake Bortles deal and free up their cap.   They might even get it done for a 3rd or 4th rounder.

 

Hell........the Bills could even take on Kirk Cousins as a backup for the duration of his deal if the Vikings gave Beane enough draft capital.?

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

John Clayton mentioned that Free Agency is going to be bad this year. He mentioned something like only 38 players are going to be available in march. I'm sort of ok with that, because I would hate to see all the cap room be spent away in one offseason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, wagon127 said:

John Clayton mentioned that Free Agency is going to be bad this year. He mentioned something like only 38 players are going to be available in march. I'm sort of ok with that, because I would hate to see all the cap room be spent away in one offseason.

 

from the NFL Rule Book on Cap:

 

 ..."This is called the minimum cash spend requirement, also known as the 89 percent rule. "....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

It doesn't always work like this...You can structure the contracts to give cap relief up front and take it more in later years when you will be getting rid of some other contracts, etc...

They have a ton of flexibility and they don't need to spend all of it this year either...

 

I don't think that there's too much to spend it on this year either.  I hate to say it but this seems like a terrible year to be coming in with a bunch of cap space just because what's going to be out there isn't that great. I mean come on old ass Golden Tate as the top WR in free agency.  Wooooof.  I think they'll address some positions but the draft is going to be super important again this year for this teams future.  I just don't think there's enough "fix it now" guys that we could sign.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Epstein's Mother said:

 

What I'm thinking is; he's likely to run out of players to spend money on (in 2019) long before he runs out of money.

 

Listened to Murphy and Tasker discuss this...Murph was of the opinion that fans deserve the best team possible...spend it. Bills have the most roster spots to fill, so they have shopping opportunities. If they go for an 'elite" WR, CB, Edge, LT,etc. that money will go quickly. Plus they can cut a couple veterans and absorb the hits

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, Pablocruise said:

 

Listened to Murphy and Tasker discuss this...Murph was of the opinion that fans deserve the best team possible...spend it. Bills have the most roster spots to fill, so they have shopping opportunities. If they go for an 'elite" WR, CB, Edge, LT,etc. that money will go quickly. Plus they can cut a couple veterans and absorb the hits

What if there are not any  'elite" WR, CB, Edge, LT,etc....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, Franchiseneedsme said:

I think they should use that $$$$ to front load contracts instead of rolling it over. Example.... 

Give the top center 17M year one instead of the average. That way the player is able to be cut if needed without high dead money. And if they play good your getting a good player at a premium the rest of the contract

 

Don't you risk players holding out if this happens? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...