John from Riverside Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 46 minutes ago, Dadonkadonk said: What the OP and this board is forgetting is there are multiple teams with tons of cap space. Beane overspent on Star, Ivory, and Murphy. Just like any other team they will have to overspend to lure free agents from other teams. There is simply too much cap space available. They will need to be selective and aggressive in free agency. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 hour ago, jwhit34 said: Per Spotrac, the Bills projected cap situation in '19: Committed Salaries (39 players) $104.3 million Dead Money 3.0 million Total Cap Used 107.3 million Projected Cap including rollover $196.0 million If the Bills release McCoy, Clay and Ducasse, this is how it would change: Committed Salaries (36 players) $ 84.3 million Dead Money 10.0 million Total Cap Used $ 94.3 million Cap space to spend $101.7 million They have 10 draft picks and using 2018 as a guide and building in about 10% inflation they will need about $10 million reserved to sign them. If you figure the 5 picks in rounds 1-4 will count against the cap (top 50 salaries count through training camp) and estimating that those salaries will be about $7.5 million, that gives the team 41 of the 53 players, about $102 of the cap used leaving $94 million to spend to fill the 12 roster spots. What might that look like? They have a lot of flexibility, here's one scenario: 3 offensive linemen for an average cap hit of $9 million - $27 million spent (thinking 2 @ $11M & 1 @ $5M) 2 WRs for an average of $9 million - $18 million spent (1 at $12-13M & 1 @ $5-6M) 1 TE for $7 million 1 backup QB for $3 million 1 defensive player at $6 million 4 depth players for an average of $1.5 million - $6 million spent That's $67 million spent leaving $27 million in cap space. In the draft, add 1-2 WRs, at least 1 OL, 1 RB, 2 defensive players, rest best player available. What this illustrates is that they can go after some big name free agents if they want and leave themselves in an enviable position at the draft to truly go with the best player available and/or be able to trade down and amass more picks for now or the future. If they want K. Williams and Alexander back, they have plenty of room to do that, they made a combined $8 million this year, they would probably cost a little less in '19 since they're a year older, plus they would be 1 year deals so it wouldn't impact roster/cap management beyond 2019. We are probably looking at about 20 new players on the team for 2019 which would be remarkable given the roster churn already in the first 2 years of McDermott/Beane. Good job with the numbers. One thing to consider is the 53 roster is the final roster. Bills will be signing for next years 90 to bring to camp. They will be resigning some of their own FAs and a lot more FAs than you indicated. Always got to hope to find some cheaper guys who out perform. I'm thinking they keep 20-25 million to roll into next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WideNine Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 hours ago, whatdrought said: Didn’t Sammy Watkins get like 18 million alone last year? i don’t know what WR will be worth 9million. Also, starting Olinemen that are worth anything will clear at least 10million. As for o-linemen I think the OP agreed with you that any o-linemen worth his salt will be at least 10 mil - he added at the end of his O-Line spend tally - (thinking 2 @ $11M & 1 @ $5M) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamie Nails Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 I wouldn't be surprised to see them trade for a player or two. Maybe a bigger splash like the Rams or Bears did last offseason. I think they fashion their progression after those teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 ..cap spending requirements to go along with OP's great work and analysis.............. By Nick Manchester@NickManchester9 Sep 6, 2018, 7:44pm EDT Spending requirements There is a minimum amount of money that a team can put towards their caps. All 32 teams are required to spend at least 89 percent of their caps (which this year is $177.2 M). This is called the minimum cash spend requirement, also known as the 89 percent rule. Teams don’t have to spend their 89 percent every year, however. This requirement must be the average amount spent over the four year spending period. The current spending period started in 2017 and will continue through 2020. In other words, the Bengals could have to spend 88 percent of their cap last year and this year, but would have to spend at least 90 percent over the next two years. The second requirement is that the league as a whole must spend 95 percent of its total cap space. So the average percent of cap spending must come out to 95 percent every year, or the remaining money will be given to the players. This rule also applies over the course of the spending period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
offyourocker Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 I think they will go get an OLB also to replace Lorenzo. There are a lot of free agents at that position. He might be back for a year to play a limited role but I think this is the right time to get a long time starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: Sammy shouldn’t be any sort of benchmark when considering how to spread your cap around. Zay Jones is having a similarly prolific year in a much less productive offense. Definitely agree- but his cotract (and other obscene ones) is indicitive of the market. Any receiver who even smells like a starter will be looking at above 10. Especially considering escalation. Albert Wilson got 8 a year, with a ton up front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dezertbill Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 hours ago, John from Riverside said: Ok so Clay really only costs 4 million dollars next year......after years of overpaying this guy he actually is dirt cheap going into this next season......just get a BETTER TE to be the number 1 and he can be the number 2 I would keep Shady but draft a RB I would cut Clay period. He is not a productive player, a liability in the passing game, and regardless of how much cap you have I'm always looking to maximize value. $4.5 Million is 4.5 Million. You never know what player may become available that you want to sign. As for Shady, I'm on the fence. One the one hand, he isn't a fit for our running game (perhaps due to our faulty OL which maybe fixed this offseason), on the other hand he is a team leader and can be dynamic in the right situation. If our cap space was a problem Id say cut him. But with over $100 million after cutting Clay, and there isn't any reason not to keep him for his final year (which he'll be playing in a contract year) and see what he can do with improved Offensive weapons around him. 7 minutes ago, offyourocker said: I think they will go get an OLB also to replace Lorenzo. There are a lot of free agents at that position. He might be back for a year to play a limited role but I think this is the right time to get a long time starter. Lo has another year left, maybe too. I see his replacement coming in the 2019 draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 $7 million for a TE? For that kind of money we sure better throw to him more than once a month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epstein's Mother Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 The Bills have so much cap room for next year that I don't believe they will be able to spend it all. I think it will take through 2020 to get near the cap. There will only be so many free agents available next year and other teams have needs as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Says Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 4 hours ago, John from Riverside said: Ok so Clay really only costs 4 million dollars next year......after years of overpaying this guy he actually is dirt cheap going into this next season......just get a BETTER TE to be the number 1 and he can be the number 2 I would keep Shady but draft a RB They have to account for the amortized bonus money so isnt it more like 9? 1 hour ago, Epstein's Mother said: The Bills have so much cap room for next year that I don't believe they will be able to spend it all. I think it will take through 2020 to get near the cap. There will only be so many free agents available next year and other teams have needs as well. Wouldn't surprise me to see Beane roll some over, but ,why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Just now, Pablocruise said: They have to account for the amortized bonus money so isnt it more like 9? I read it was 4 If its 4.....still serv as a number 2 TE If its 9 CUT HIS ASS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dezertbill Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 (edited) The Bills will sign Tyrell Williams. Chargers already have Keenan Allen and Mike Williams (if they pick up his 5th year option) until 2021. Travis Benjamin is signed through next year. No way they pay this guy what he's worth. 26 years old. He is 6'4 and can win jump balls (what we thought we were getting with Benjamin). He is a hands catcher and can take it out of the defenders grasp. Can stretch the field and go deep (caught a number of long ball TDs). Has great speed to get past defenders and gain valuable YAC. His 63.3 catch % is tops among FA WR's. He's on the books for $2.9 this year. He will be in a Bills uniform next year. Edited December 19, 2018 by dezertbill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Says Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 minute ago, John from Riverside said: I read it was 4 If its 4.....still serv as a number 2 TE If its 9 CUT HIS ASS His salary will be 4.5, with a couple bonuses totaling another 4.5 If you keep him yes, his SALARY is 4.5, but you have to account for the bonuses against the cap ( 9 million cap hit). The DEAD money (the bonus money) is 4.5 next year next year, I assume his salary is not guaranteed which makes it easier to cut him,m and save 4.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 hours ago, dezertbill said: I would cut Clay period. He is not a productive player, a liability in the passing game, and regardless of how much cap you have I'm always looking to maximize value. $4.5 Million is 4.5 Million. You never know what player may become available that you want to sign. As for Shady, I'm on the fence. One the one hand, he isn't a fit for our running game (perhaps due to our faulty OL which maybe fixed this offseason), on the other hand he is a team leader and can be dynamic in the right situation. If our cap space was a problem Id say cut him. But with over $100 million after cutting Clay, and there isn't any reason not to keep him for his final year (which he'll be playing in a contract year) and see what he can do with improved Offensive weapons around him. Lo has another year left, maybe too. I see his replacement coming in the 2019 draft. I'd cut clay. Shady isn't irreplaceable at this point in his career, but on an offense completely without playmakers it doesn't make sense to cut the only player resembling a playmaker. I'm all for upgrading the position, but we don't need the cap space and his salary isn't guaranteed. Why not figure out if you've upgraded it before you decide to cut someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corta765 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 4 hours ago, whatdrought said: Didn’t Sammy Watkins get like 18 million alone last year? i don’t know what WR will be worth 9million. Also, starting Olinemen that are worth anything will clear at least 10million. The number signed for does not necessarily equal the cap hit. It's all about contract structure. 2 hours ago, Epstein's Mother said: The Bills have so much cap room for next year that I don't believe they will be able to spend it all. I think it will take through 2020 to get near the cap. There will only be so many free agents available next year and other teams have needs as well. It has taken the Jags like 5 seasons to use all that cap space. Only this offseason are they finally going to have to shed a guy like Dareus ironically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, corta765 said: The number signed for does not necessarily equal the cap hit. It's all about contract structure. That's true- and I admit to not knowing how that works. I apologize to the OP if it seemed like i was attacking his work- just trying to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corta765 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 minute ago, whatdrought said: That's true- and I admit to not knowing how that works. I apologize to the OP if it seemed like i was attacking his work- just trying to figure it out. Naw u good homie I figured it was more of a question. Just for fun Watkins cap per spotrac is 7 mil this year then 19 mil next and 21 in 2020 which is hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, corta765 said: Naw u good homie I figured it was more of a question. Just for fun Watkins cap per spotrac is 7 mil this year then 19 mil next and 21 in 2020 which is hilarious Maybe we can sign him back when he gets cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, whatdrought said: Maybe we can sign him back when he gets cut. Yep, the trainers need to earn their keep too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts