Bills 3-0 in games decided by 3 points or less...

[Hebert19]

Just saw that on the Bill's site.  That is unheard of for this squad.   We normally lose a lot of 3 point games.  Just like the game last week we are developing into closers.  

[billsfanmiami(oh)]

Yeah except for those two weeks before last...??‍♂️

[26CornerBlitz]

3 minutes ago, billsfanmiami(oh) said:

Yeah except for those two weeks before last...??‍♂️

 

  3 points or less 21-17 = 4 and 27-23 = 4 

[Ronin]

19 minutes ago, Hebert19 said:

Just saw that on the Bill's site.  That is unheard of for this squad.   We normally lose a lot of 3 point games.  Just like the game last week we are developing into closers.  

 

So thanks to our ability to "close" we're 5-9?  ... 2-12 otherwise.  

 

Isn't this akin to getting a participation ribbon?  

[JerseyBills]

That's a great sign moving forward for such a young team. #TrustTheProcess

[Nanker]

1 + 1 = 11

[Hebert19]

31 minutes ago, billsfanmiami(oh) said:

Yeah except for those two weeks before last...??‍♂️

You mean when we drove down and should have won against dolphins.  Just saying. 

[Jobot]

This is a meaningless stat.

[BillsFan130]

4 minutes ago, Jobot said:

This is a meaningless stat.

Yes and no. Probably a better stat would be to see their record going into the 4th quarter in a 1 possession game.

 

Cause there were also games they lost in which they had the lead in the 4th. (Texans, Miami, Jets)

 

But it’s kind of good to know they are winning some tight games, especially with Allen of course. 

[billsfanmiami(oh)]

44 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

  3 points or less 21-17 = 4 and 27-23 = 4 

 

Thank you for the help Archimedes, I don’t understand math very well....My comment was more in general about the original poster saying we’re developing into closers. 

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, billsfanmiami(oh) said:

 

Thank you for the help Archimedes, I don’t understand math very well....My comment was more in general about the original poster saying we’re developing into closers. 

 

I see that and the name is Pythagaros BTW. 

[GunnerBill]

3 points or fewer.....

[Ronin]

There's one thing that matters right now, that's Allen's development as a passer.  

 

Everything else is a country-mile distant 2nd in terms of what's relevant for this team going forward.  

 

If Allen can correct and improve his passing game, then we'll have found our franchise QB.  If not however, well, then it'll be wash/rinse/repeat time.  

 

Everyone hammered on Taylor, I was no different, but right now Allen's passing numbers aren't even what Taylor's were.  If they weren't good enough under Taylor, then until further notice they're still not good enough.  

 

Using only Allen's last four games post-injury, here are the comps between him and Taylor's time in Buffalo:  

 

Compl. %:  Taylor 61.6%, Allen 50.0% 

Yards-per-Game:  Taylor 201, Allen 200 

TDs/Game:  Taylor 1.2, Allen 1 

INTs/Game:  Taylor .4, Allen 1

Rating:  Taylor 92.5, Allen 70.1

TD%:  Taylor 4.1%, Allen 3.5% 

INT%:  Taylor 1.3%, Allen 3.5% 

YPA:  Taylor 7.2, Allen 7.0 

Adj. YPA:  Taylor 7.4, Allen 6.2 

 

The one area where Allen is better, at least over his last four games, is sack-avoidance where Allen's been sacked once every 20 dropbacks whereas Taylor was sacked once every 11, despite the fact that the four teams played recently are ranked 12th, 19th, 28th, and 31st (22nd average) in sacks.  

 

I've been pointing out that Allen's success, just as every QB's success in the NFL is, will be determined by his short-medium passing game.  The problem therein, at the moment, is that Allen's Red Zone game is horrible, worse than that of his draft peers, and near DFL among NFL starters if not DFL outright.  

 

The thing that people have failed to factor in, which is common for "strong-armed QBs," is that once a team gets down into the red zone there is no more "deep game" and the short-medium is an absolute must.  There's no argument against this, it's common sense and fact.  

 

Here's hoping, but that's what will need to happen.  Allen missed several check-down options this past game while throwing incomplete, or worse, INT, instead.  That cannot continue to happen.  

 

I'm not saying this improvement won't happen, all I'm saying is that anything else regarding the future of this team under McBeane will end up being irrlevant.  The fact that we've won three games of the 3-points-or-less variety in this case isn't all that encouraging given that the average scoring in those four games was 19.5 points-per-game, which is presently good for 27th of 32 in the league and less than it was under Taylor.  

 

 

[row_33]

16 minutes ago, Jobot said:

This is a meaningless stat.

 

The flow of the game is more important than the final score

 

garbagetime lets many points in for the loser to make it seem it was close for stat cherry picking 

 

 

 

[Big Turk]

way to cherry pick...the better metric would be one score games, but I guess you don't want to include the Jets loss by 4, the Texans loss by 7, or the Dolphins loss by 4...

 

Which would even their record at 3-3 in 1 score games.

[26CornerBlitz]

The team we see today isn't close to the team we'll see in '19 and beyond.    In the end, it's not anything to draw upon one way or the other.

[Ronin]

Just now, matter2003 said:

way to cherry pick...the better metric would be one score games, but I guess you don't want to include the Jets loss by 4, the Texans loss by 7, or the Dolphins loss by 4...

 

Which would even their record at 3-3 in 1 score games.

 

The better metric(s) are averages by game.  We've criticized a team for years, recently in particular, for its futility in the passing game.  Yet now for some reason, with metrics in those games not even what they were when we were hammering on the passing game, for some reason it's all better.  It's mind-boggling.  

 

I'm sorry, but as a pure passer, right now Allen needs a whole lotta work.  Excitement is one thing, average and overall performance is quite another.  

 

We can project the lights out, but until it actually happens, there's a risk that it will not.  

[row_33]

10 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

The better metric(s) are averages by game.  We've criticized a team for years, recently in particular, for its futility in the passing game.  Yet now for some reason, with metrics in those games not even what they were when we were hammering on the passing game, for some reason it's all better.  It's mind-boggling.  

 

I'm sorry, but as a pure passer, right now Allen needs a whole lotta work.  Excitement is one thing, average and overall performance is quite another.  

 

We can project the lights out, but until it actually happens, there's a risk that it will not.  

 

the only metric is the win-loss record

 

especially in football

 

the only objective of a team is to win, they will give up all kinds of stats to secure a one point win

 

and a top team is only concerned with securing Home Field Advantage and will give up all kinds of stats to secure it

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

7 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

There's one thing that matters right now, that's Allen's development as a passer.  

 

Everything else is a country-mile distant 2nd in terms of what's relevant for this team going forward.  

 

If Allen can correct and improve his passing game, then we'll have found our franchise QB.  If not however, well, then it'll be wash/rinse/repeat time.  

 

Everyone hammered on Taylor, I was no different, but right now Allen's passing numbers aren't even what Taylor's were.  If they weren't good enough under Taylor, then until further notice they're still not good enough.  

 

Using only Allen's last four games post-injury, here are the comps between him and Taylor's time in Buffalo:  

 

Compl. %:  Taylor 61.6%, Allen 50.0% 

Yards-per-Game:  Taylor 201, Allen 200 

TDs/Game:  Taylor 1.2, Allen 1 

INTs/Game:  Taylor .4, Allen 1

Rating:  Taylor 92.5, Allen 70.1

TD%:  Taylor 4.1%, Allen 3.5% 

INT%:  Taylor 1.3%, Allen 3.5% 

YPA:  Taylor 7.2, Allen 7.0 

Adj. YPA:  Taylor 7.4, Allen 6.2 

 

The one area where Allen is better, at least over his last four games, is sack-avoidance where Allen's been sacked once every 20 dropbacks whereas Taylor was sacked once every 11, despite the fact that the four teams played recently are ranked 12th, 19th, 28th, and 31st (22nd average) in sacks.  

 

I've been pointing out that Allen's success, just as every QB's success in the NFL is, will be determined by his short-medium passing game.  The problem therein, at the moment, is that Allen's Red Zone game is horrible, worse than that of his draft peers, and near DFL among NFL starters if not DFL outright.  

 

The thing that people have failed to factor in, which is common for "strong-armed QBs," is that once a team gets down into the red zone there is no more "deep game" and the short-medium is an absolute must.  There's no argument against this, it's common sense and fact.  

 

Here's hoping, but that's what will need to happen.  Allen missed several check-down options this past game while throwing incomplete, or worse, INT, instead.  That cannot continue to happen.  

 

I'm not saying this improvement won't happen, all I'm saying is that anything else regarding the future of this team under McBeane will end up being irrlevant.  The fact that we've won three games of the 3-points-or-less variety in this case isn't all that encouraging given that the average scoring in those four games was 19.5 points-per-game, which is presently good for 27th of 32 in the league and less than it was under Taylor.  

 

 

 

This a false comparison: a rookie versus a vet.   

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

The better metric(s) are averages by game.  We've criticized a team for years, recently in particular, for its futility in the passing game.  Yet now for some reason, with metrics in those games not even what they were when we were hammering on the passing game, for some reason it's all better.  It's mind-boggling.  

 

I'm sorry, but as a pure passer, right now Allen needs a whole lotta work.  Excitement is one thing, average and overall performance is quite another.  

 

We can project the lights out, but until it actually happens, there's a risk that it will not.  

 

Ehh...he's been over 200 yards the past 3 games...Tyrod used to regularly be under 200 yards.  He needs weapons more than anything. And an OL that can open up something in the run game.