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Transfer Portal: Welcome to CFB free agency


YoloinOhio

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3 hours ago, Willyville Guy said:

 

I predict he’ll be a Heisman finalist and have the Sooners back in the playoffs next year. 

Best place for him if he is wanting to continue to develop his passing. I'll be watching ok and pulling for Jalen next year.

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15 hours ago, Willyville Guy said:

 

I predict he’ll be a Heisman finalist and have the Sooners back in the playoffs next year. 

It wouldn't surprise me. Does Oklahoma play even 1 team with a decent defense?

 

I wish him well but his transfer was expected and might even help the team in an ideal setting. They have 2 incoming freshmen at the qb position, both of whom have big time credentials. It would be great to see them get some playing time in 2019.

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6 minutes ago, Bandito said:

Yea, they put up 34 pts on that vaunted Alabama defense in the CFP. Texas's D isn't too bad either

They did.....with a different quarterback. Do you like Hurts as much as Murray?

 

And this Alabama defense, while very talented, lost a huge number of very good to excellent players to the NFL. It will happen again as it does almost every season but I think that the 2019 defense has the potential to be better than the one in 2018 by a considerable margin. What you saw this month was not an ordinary defense by Alabama standards.

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1 hour ago, Bandito said:

Yea, they put up 34 pts on that vaunted Alabama defense in the CFP. Texas's D isn't too bad either

TCU and Iowa State are both in the top 35 defenses from ‘18. No other Big 12 teams in the top 50. Their out of conference schedule for 2019 is also outside of that. 

 

Hurts is a good college QB but not considered a great passer. I think it will be interesting to see him in a different offense to see if that is still the case or if he starts throwing it around more. It is the #1 offense in the country that he’s walking into. And we see what Lincoln Riley did with the last 2 QB transfers. 

Edited by YoloinOhio
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4 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

It wouldn't surprise me. Does Oklahoma play even 1 team with a decent defense?

 

I wish him well but his transfer was expected and might even help the team in an ideal setting. They have 2 incoming freshmen at the qb position, both of whom have big time credentials. It would be great to see them get some playing time in 2019.

 

I'm not sure about this year, but I looked into this when I was scouting QBs for the Bills last year. The defenses that Oklahoma faced the last year with Baker Mayfield, were on average, 63rd in the country. The only QB prospect that faced tougher defenses on average was Lamar Jackson at 58th. Baker faced 6 top 30 defenses that year while the next closest QB faced 4 (Lamar and Mason Rudolph, who was also a Big 12 QB).

 

Edit: Looking at this past season's schedule, they once again faced, on average, the 63rd best defense, though only two top 30 defenses (Alabama & Army). So in terms of facing elite defenses, it's hard to say how many Jalen Hurts might face, but in all likelihood, he'll face better defenses on average than most other QBs.

Edited by DCOrange
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38 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

I'm not sure about this year, but I looked into this when I was scouting QBs for the Bills last year. The defenses that Oklahoma faced the last year with Baker Mayfield, were on average, 63rd in the country. The only QB prospect that faced tougher defenses on average was Lamar Jackson at 58th. Baker faced 6 top 30 defenses that year while the next closest QB faced 4 (Lamar and Mason Rudolph, who was also a Big 12 QB).

 

Edit: Looking at this past season's schedule, they once again faced, on average, the 63rd best defense, though only two top 30 defenses (Alabama & Army). So in terms of facing elite defenses, it's hard to say how many Jalen Hurts might face, but in all likelihood, he'll face better defenses on average than most other QBs.

Thanks, that was great research! Do you happen to know how the defenses that Clemson and Alabama faced were ranked?

These things confuse me too. Army, top 30? I suppose that a lot of factors contribute to this such as TOP but I can't say I know for sure. Do you consider these ratings to be accurate?

 

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58 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Thanks, that was great research! Do you happen to know how the defenses that Clemson and Alabama faced were ranked?

These things confuse me too. Army, top 30? I suppose that a lot of factors contribute to this such as TOP but I can't say I know for sure. Do you consider these ratings to be accurate?

 

 

In the case of Army, I would bet it's hugely influenced by TOP. With the NFL, I'd generally look at yards/points per possession as a gauge of how good a defense is, or also something like DVOA. Unfortunately I don't know if any of those are available to the public for college teams, so all I can go on is points allowed per game.

 

Regarding Clemson/Alabama:

Clemson: 67th (3 top 30 defenses and 3 outside the top 100)

Alabama: 65th (5 top 30 defenses and 6 outside the top 100)

Oklahoma: 63rd (2 top 30 defenses and 1 outside the top 100)

 

People think of the Big 12 and think of the outrageously high scoring games, but on the whole, they don't give up as many points per game as you'd expect. None of the Big 12 teams that Oklahoma played ranked outside the top 100. The average ranking of the Big 12 teams they faced was 66th. The average ranking of SEC teams Alabama faced and ACC teams Clemson faced is 50th and 79th respectively. Bama and Clemson each faced two conference teams that were ranked outside the top 100.

 

If more data were available, I probably wouldn't use this same method to measure how good the defenses are that Kyler faced for example, but I think the overall point of this is that Big 12 teams aren't actually allowing a million points every game like the media would have you think; it's just that Oklahoma is that ridiculously good offensively that they're able to turn basically every game into that regardless of the opponent.

 

Edit: Put another way: Oklahoma's opponents allowed an average of 27 points per game. Oklahoma scored an average of 48 points per game against them; their opponents allowed almost twice as many points as usual against Oklahoma. All of these defenses would probably be ranked decently better if they didn't play Oklahoma. For example, if you take the two Oklahoma games out of Texas' record; they would move up from the #57 defense to #40. Against everyone else, Texas allowed 23 points per game. Oklahoma scored 39 and 45 points against them this year.

Edited by DCOrange
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4 minutes ago, Willyville Guy said:

Maybe they don't want to be blamed anymore for his playcalling?

Did you know that part of his recruiting pitch is telling them they can play on the team that won the first CFB championship with a black head coach? He was pitching this to Zach Harrison. First of all...

 

never mind.

Edited by YoloinOhio
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